NFL Week 16 Parlay

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Dec 20, 2023

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Last week, I was expecting New York Giants’ quarterback Tommy DeVito to let the good times roll down in the Big Easy.

Laissez le bon temps rouler pour les Géants?

Non!

In New Orleans the good times stopped rolling, and the Saints were nothing like their city nickname implied.

Big? Maybe.

Easy? Definitely not.

Backing a rookie quarterback like DeVito can be difficult, but once he gets on a heater, and you climb aboard that bandwagon, it becomes even more difficult to get off.

Now that I have tucked-and-rolled away from the parlay-busting bandwagon of Tommy DeVito and the New York Giants with only light bruising, I can walk into Week 16 on my own two legs with a clearer sense.

Speaking of legs, each week this parlay is constructed using the same format: one underdog moneyline, two spreads, one over, and one under.

I’ll be placing this Week 16 parlay on DraftKings.

Tout suite!

Moneyline – Pittsburgh Steelers (+110) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

There is a slight chance that Kenny Pickett could return in time for Saturday’s game against the Bengals.

That would probably be an improvement for the Steelers’ offense, even though Pickett wasn’t doing too much prior to his injury.

Pittsburgh’s offense continues to get worse, and somewhere, recently-fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada is scoffing.

The Steelers’ running back tandem of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren must step up and prove that Canada’s firing was justified.

Harris and Warren have an easy matchup on the ground this week, facing Cincinnati’s 28th-ranked rushing defense.

Pittsburgh needs to stop worrying so much about who will be under center, and let the quarterback be a football-handing vendor to the running backs.

In the last two games, Harris and Warren have run for a combined 113 yards on 41 carries.

That’s 2.8 yards per carry. Which is awful.

I may be asking too much, but the Steelers need to get back to running the football.

If they do, I believe they can steal a win from the Bengals in Pittsburgh.

Pick: Steelers Moneyline (+110)

Spread – Chicago Bears (-4 | -115) vs Arizona Cardinals

Two top-ten rushing offenses go head-to-head at Soldier Field on Christmas Eve!

Here’s an offensive comparison of the Cardinals and Bears, courtesy of BestOdds EDGE:

Very comparable offenses, but with Chicago edging out Arizona just slightly in every category.

And now, a defensive comparison of the Cardinals and Bears from BestOdds EDGE:

These two are no longer comparable teams!

The Chicago Bears have the No. 1 rushing defense in the NFL, allowing only 79.79 rushing yards per game. 

If you cut the legs out from under Kyler Murray, James Conner and this Arizona offense, what do you get?

Probably a losing football team.

The Cardinals’ defense is 31st in rushing, and Justin Fields is going to have a field day at Soldier Field.

Too many ‘fields’ in that sentence.

Give me the Bears by a touchdown.

Pick: Bears (-4)

Spread – Seattle Seahawks (-2.5 | -115) vs. Tennessee Titans

Although Drew Lock wasn’t decided to be the starting quarterback until the ref was pretty much ready for the coin toss, Lock still pulled the Seahawks to victory over the Philadelphia Eagles.

With the more trustworthy Geno Smith likely to be under center for Seattle this week, I like the Seahawks to make it two wins in a row here.

The Tennessee Titans’ offense has been up-and-down all season, and now, quarterback Will Levis has a bum leg and may not be available for Mike Vrabel’s squad.

The Titans are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but Seattle (7-7) has a very realistic chance of sneaking back into the playoff picture, possibly as soon as this week.

The Seahawks have much more to play for, and with some impressive wins on their resume (Week 2 over DET, Week 8 over CLE, Week 15 over PHI), I’m surprised this spread isn’t closer to 6.5.

Pick: Seahawks (-2.5)

OVER – Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (o42.5 | -112)

Baker Mayfield made history in Week 15, throwing for four touchdown passes and registering the first perfect visiting quarterback rating at Lambeau Field.

Think of all the non-Green Bay quarterbacks that have visited that hallowed ground . . . 

Fran Tarkenton, and hundreds of other good ones, too many to list.

Now think about Baker Mayfield producing arguably the greatest game as a visiting QB.

Crazy.

The Buccaneers very often get tangled in high-scoring showdowns when the spread is narrow, but this trend from BestOdds EDGE presents this info much clearer.

Last week’s matchup with Green Bay had Tampa set as +4 underdogs on the spread, and the total was 41.5.

The final score settled on 34-20, Bucs.

I’ve got to take Baker and the Bucs when the spread is narrow.

This game features Tampa Bay’s 31st-ranked passing defense and Jacksonville’s 28th-ranked passing defense.

Let Mayfield and Lawrence show off with a throw-off.

I’ll say the final score will be 31-27, Bucs.

Pick: Over 42.5

UNDER – Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans (u40 | -110)

The Cleveland Browns’ defense is arguably the NFL’s best right now.

Their offense, not so much.

The Houston Texans’ offense was scoring points left and right.

Until C.J. Stroud went down with a concussion.

The Browns don’t need to score a ton of points to win, and I don’t think the Texans will score many points at all, not with Case Keenum as QB1.

Houston has scored only 25 total points in the last two weeks combined, and I can’t see them scoring more than 10 points in this one.

Cleveland has done a respectable job of keeping teams out of the end zone, but much of their points allowed can be largely attributed to a wonky early-season offense regularly relinquishing field position.

They’ve done an incredible job against opposing passing attacks, though.

Good luck, Keenum.

I’ll say the final score will be 21-10, Browns.

Week 16 Parlay Legs – DraftKingsOdds
Pittsburgh ML vs. CIN+110
Chicago (-4) vs. ARI-115
Seattle (-2.5) vs TEN-115
OVER 42.5 (JAX vs. TB)-112
UNDER 40 (CLE vs. HOU)-110
Week 16 Parlay Odds+2552

A $10 wager on this parlay would payout $265.24!

How To Bet NFL Parlays

A parlay bet is a sports wager that combines several bets on one ticket alone.

Usually, you would go with moneyline bets but can use spreads, totals, and futures.

You can include props in many cases, and bettors can choose to link together just two sides, or up to 15 or more depending on the sportsbook.

Parlays are wholly customizable meaning bettors get to choose how big they want the odds to go.

How many sides will be included, and how difficult is it to make each leg of the parlay or do the same game parlays.

The way to establish consistency is to have just two or three sides and avoid chasing astronomical odds.

It’s fine to take your shot at a massive payout as well, but be sure to only risk the money you’re prepared to lose.

If you fancy regular bets, we got the NFL week 16 odds analysis worth checking out.

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About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and en...

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