Best NFL Parlay Bets Week 16
Yuletide Greetings! With Christmas Day falling on a Sunday, we have a good excuse to escape the Christmas tree and instead sit in front of the TV for hours instead.
This week’s parlay combines five bets. As always, I have selected one game to be under, one to be over, a couple of spread bets, and a dog moneyline.
I’m putting my neck on the line this time round by choosing a big underdog in the Texans upsetting the Titans.
This time around, if all five are correct, then my payout will be just under +5900.
Moneyline – Texans Vs. Titans (Best Odds – +350)
When the lines first came out for this festive week’s slate of games, this was the one that stood out for me.
Do I think that the Texans have a better roster and are a superior franchise? The answer is no.
A simple comparison reveals the gulf in individual talent on show.
However, do I believe that the overwhelming home favorites have that uncanny ability to disappoint?
Yes, I do!
Mike Vrabel is a more than capable coach, especially when up against it as the underdog. He often seems to rise to the challenge of lower expectations.
It’s when Tennessee should waltz games that they sometimes dramatically fail to fire. What better example than Week 11 last season when this same team came visiting?
Houston left victorious with a 22-13 scoreline.
Look who the Titans had beaten in the previous six weeks. They had defeated the Bills, Chiefs, and Rams!
Then they contrived to lose at home against the Texans. Here’s to history repeating itself! Cheers!
Spread – Lions (+4) Vs. Panthers (-110)
The Lions have gone three games without being selected as either my moneyline dog or spread selection in my parlay picks.
They were regular for the first 12 weeks of the season. It was time for another appearance, as I feel that they are a value proposition this time around.
Detroit had that uncanny ability last season to cover the spread most regularly. Their overall record of 3-13-1, with every road game a defeat, never reads well.
However, they were rarely beaten out of sight. Indeed, their decent end to the season saw them cover an impressive 7 out of 9 times.
This season has seen belief return to Michigan. They are turning more of those defeats into victories, whilst covering the spread well.
This early line of +4 at DraftKings seems too generous when you consider what punch the Panther pack, or rather don’t!
Take note that Caesars is currently offering Detroit at +3. Remember to shop around for the best odds!
You’ve heard me say this before and you’ll hear me say it again.
You don’t want your parlay to fail because one of your selections didn’t cover the spread with your chosen sportsbook, whilst it would have done so at another one.
Over/Under – Eagles Vs. Cowboys (48) (-110)
A Christmas Eve NFC East feast! Philly heads west to Texas for the 127th clash between these old foes.
The past ten games when the Eagles have flown into Dallas have seen an average of over 53 points. These are regularly high-scoring and entertaining.
Throw in some much-needed Christmas cheer, and I’m sure that Messrs Prescott, Lamb, Hurts, and Brown will produce the goods.
We all know the strength of the Eagles down the middle to keep the scoreboard ticking over. America’s Team’s receiving corps is hard to contain for any secondary.
I cannot tell you which team will be eating their turkey the following day with the bragging rights.
I’d be very surprised if we see a repeat of the Christmas Day 2006 low-scoring game in Dallas when Jeff Garcia’s Eagles saw off Tony Romo’s Cowboys 23-7.
I wonder if Tony will be reminded of that inauspicious performance if he’s covering this game!
Spread – Packers (-1) Vs. Dolphins (-110)
We all know that if this Christmas Day game was a reverse fixture the spread would be looking very different.
I know where I would rather be playing! For those Packers players, it must be a pleasant respite to head down south to tackle Tua, Tyreek, et al.
They finish their season with 5 home games in 8, with trips to Philadelphia and Chicago in between.
Some Vitamin D in the Florida sun will do wonders amongst that schedule!
The Dolphins seem to have spent this century struggling to escape mid-table mediocrity.
This game sits in between two chilly trips north to face divisional rivals in the Bills and then the Patriots.
Prior to their Buffalo game, they have been out west to face the 49ers and Chargers. That is an ugly sequence of games!
Miami will have some exhausted bodies out there. The Packers in a post-Aaron Rodgers era might struggle to acclimatize to the change of scene for such a game.
However, the second GOAT (do you agree?) has the latent talent and players around him to emerge victorious in Miami.
I expect a clear-cut margin against a deflated and tired Dolphins team.
Over/Under – Buccaneers Vs. Cardinals (52) (-110)
I was confident that this total was on the high side when analyzing this week’s games.
It stood out as the value bet for my regular under-selection for my parlay. Imagine my surprise to discover that the average total for when the Bucs visit the Cards in their last three games stood at a whopping 63 points!
In fact, two of those games have seen more than 70 points. Financial services companies have to state that past performance is not an indication of future results.
I now choose to adapt and borrow this statement. Despite these offenses occasionally going crazy, lightning will not strike twice or thrice!
Last season, Arizona averaged just 21.5 points in the second half of the season.
For the first 9 games, this was over 35 points! This is a team and a coach for whom the Christmas period often spells disappointment.
With the canny GOAT and his swashbuckling teammates coming to town, I expect Tampa Bay’s better game management to win the day.
It will not be a Christmas cracker.
I don’t expect it to be quite as low as their Christmas 1992 game when the Bucs left Phoenix with a 7-3 victory.
However, I’d be surprised to see a total anywhere close to the 52 mark.