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NFL Player Prop Bets Week 1


Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Sep 10, 2023

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The NFL is back and nothing is more exciting than Week 1!

The return of the NFL is always fun, but it brings along plenty of mystery.

So, betting on player props in Week 1 can be tricky.

Some players have changed uniforms, some players have found new opportunities by way of injury, and some players are playing under new offensive schemes and coordinators.

Which players are fading? Which players are ready to shine?

Honestly, I think Russell Wilson could be the answer to both of those questions, but I digress.

Let’s dig into a few Week 1 matchups and find some valuable player props for this NFL Sunday!

Deshaun Watson – QB, Cleveland Browns

Deshaun Watson is one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL, so the production is bound to show up, right?


Anyway, Watson is no stranger to compiling passing yards. In his last full season in 2020, Watson totaled 4,823 passing yards, leading the NFL.

That’s a mark of 301.4 passing yards per game.

The Cleveland Browns front office has given Watson a few new receiving options as well, with the trade acquisition of Elijah Moore from the New York Jets, and selecting Cedric Tillman in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft.

Four-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Amari Cooper is back to lead this receiving corps, so Watson has the necessary manpower to move the ball down the field through the air.

On the flip side of this matchup, the Cincinnati Bengals’ have lost a few key members of their defensive backfield, and that could further assist Watson in picking up big chunks of yards in Week 1.

Safety Vonn Bell (Carolina Panthers), safety Jessie Bates (Atlanta Falcons), and cornerback Eli Apple (Miami Dolphins) have all found new homes, leaving a series of question marks in the Cincy defensive secondary.

If this typically strong Cleveland offensive line can keep their quarterback upright, then the Browns QB should surpass his passing yards prop.

Pick: Watson: OVER 236.5 Passing Yards

Best Odds: (-115) DraftKings

Khalil Herbert – RB, Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers have the most historic rivalry in the NFL, and we get treated to this matchup in Week 1.

Many players have made a name for themselves in this rivalry, so why not Khalil Herbert this Sunday?

The Packers struggled against opposing rushers in 2022, allowing 2,732 yards on the ground (26th in the NFL) and 5.0 yards per carry (28th in the NFL), and they did little to shore up that end in 2023.

Green Bay lost Dean Lowry and Jarran Reed from their defensive front, and their starting linebackers are essentially the same unit.

Things are looking fairly similar, if not, worse for the Packers rushing defense in 2023.

While Herbert hasn’t drawn any comparisons to Walter Payton, he has certainly been effective.

Herbert collected 731 yards on 129 carries last season, good for a whopping 5.7 yards per carry, and enters the season at the top of the pecking order for the Bears’ running backs.

Although a mid-season injury threw cold water on Herbert’s 2022 season, he still averaged 56.2 rushing yards per game.

Chicago quarterback Justin Fields will be taking some running plays of his own, but Herbert should still see more than enough carries to go over his rushing yards prop.

Pick: Herbert OVER 53.5 Rushing Yards

Best Odds: (-106) Caesars

Chris Godwin – WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bye bye, Tom Brady. Hello, Baker Mayfield.

Things are going to look a little different for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2023, mainly from the quarterback position.

But, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin return as the Batman and Robin of the Bucs’ receiving corps.

Although their production may fluctuate with Mayfield under center, their target share in the passing game should remain largely unchanged.

Evans is simultaneously working through a contract dispute and a groin issue but is still on track to suit up in Week 1 against the Minnesota Vikings.

After sitting out the preseason finale and missing some practice time, Mayfield has had more time to build a connection with Evans’ receiving partner, Chris Godwin.

Godwin totaled a career-high 142 targets and 104 receptions in 2022 and averaged 68.2 yards per game.

Those numbers may take a slight dip in 2023, but Godwin’s Week 1 matchup against the Vikings looks like a soft one for the veteran receiver.

Last season, Minnesota allowed 4,756 passing yards, only the Tennessee Titans recorded a worse number.

The Vikings had an especially difficult time stopping opposing wide receivers, allowing a league-worst 250 catches and 3,266 yards to receivers.

Brian Flores was brought in to be the new defensive coordinator in Minnesota, but with no notable additions in the defensive secondary, Flores may have his hands full.

Pick: Godwin OVER 56.5 Receiving Yards

Best Odds: (-110) BetMGM

Dallas Goedert – TE, Philadelphia Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles have a strong offense and they can score in many ways.

The Eagles ranked third in the NFL with 28.1 points per game and second in total yards of offense (6,614 yards).

In Week 1, Philadelphia squares up against the New England Patriots, a team that struggled to keep tight ends out of the endzone in 2022.

Last season, New England allowed tight ends to score a touchdown 11 times, only the Arizona Cardinals allowed more such touchdowns (12).

Approaching the endzone, the Eagles were quite successful in the redzone as well, producing a touchdown on 68 percent of their redzone appearances.

One man who may come up big in the redzone this Sunday: Dallas Goedert.

Yes, Philly’s big two receivers of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith received more targets inside the 20 compared to Goedert, with Brown seeing 16, Smith seeing 12, and Goedert seeing eight, but Brown and Smith played all 17 games.

If the Patriots key in on Brown and Smith, and Goedert is going one-on-one with linebackers in coverage, Goedert can find paydirt.

Pick: Goedert To Record A Touchdown

Best Odds: (+195) FanDuel


About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and enter...

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