Moneyline – Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (Best Odds – +145)
Just under a year ago, the Miami Dolphins found themselves 3-0 after seeing off the Pats, Ravens, and Bills.
I know that few people give much credence to pre-season results, but in their final game before rolling off a triple victory march, Miami steamrollered a decent team.
That franchise was the Eagles, who snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the Super Bowl six months later.
The Dolphins sure did blow hot in August and September last year!
By the time they faced Mr. Herbert et al in California during Week 14, they were early on a run with their second of five straight losses. Tua, Tyreek, and the troops head back across the country on their seasonal bow to exact revenge for their December loss.
Despite the fact that they only made four selections in the draft, I expect the Dolphins to put up much better stats than last year in Los Angeles.
Despite the fact that the Chargers had the better pre-season, I predict that they will fly back to Florida with a 1 in their win column.
The money from Vegas is currently coming for the Chargers so the best odds for a Miami victory have increased from +112 to +145 at PointsBet.
This means that the odds of landing this parlay have moved from +2700 when the lines were first published to +3100.
But, before I can start celebrating those better odds, I need to land the other four legs of this parlay.
Spread – Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at New England Patriots (-110)
I do enjoy sitting down with a mug of English Breakfast tea (milk, no sugar of course) on a Tuesday morning during the NFL season once the kids are at school and analyzing the lines for that coming weekend’s slot of games.
In fact, I shall have started trying to find value bets weeks or even months in advance.
For the most part, the sportsbooks and odds compilers in Vegas do an outstanding job of pricing the betting markets. Edges are tough to find for the most part.
However, it’s surprising how often a particular line will stand out as being out of kilter. Well, for me this first week of the new NFL season, it is Philly’s that stands out.
I know that the Rams went from Super Bowl darlings to dismal within a matter of one off-season. I simply do not see the Eagles doing likewise.
They were jolly unlucky to come up against an inspired Mahomes in the biggest game of all this past February. It will be many a year before Massachusetts witnesses the glory of Brady days again.
The stardust has left the New England building. I expect a dominant and angry Philadelphia team to return down the East Coast having put at least a touchdown between them and Bill Belichick’s beloved Patriots.
I fancied Philly when the spread stood at -4.5 earlier in the summer. It has now shifted by a point over the course of the pre-season in favor of the Pats, after the uninspiring Eagles’ pre-season.
With Jalen back under center, I foresee a return to their normal winning ways and covering the spread smoothly.
Spread – Las Vegas Raiders (+4.5) at Denver Broncos (-110)
Time for my first divisional duel. Last season, the Raiders did the double over their AFC West foes based 750 miles away.
Many had labeled that division as the toughest in the entire league. Yet, Russell had a stinker and the Raiders didn’t fare much better. Kansas City and Los Angeles were a gulf apart from Las Vegas and Denver.
On the subject of Mr. Wilson, I don’t frankly buy into the story that he will suddenly turn everything around, now that he has acclimatized to the altitude, bathrooms (sorry!), and his teammates.
The Raiders secured their first win of last season in Week 4 at home against the Broncos achieving double the number of first downs as they waltzed to a 9-point victory.
Mile High witnessed some Davante magic to earn an OT win for the Raiders when underdogs in Week 11. I expect history to repeat itself with the Raiders at least covering that 4.5-point spread.
Note that PointsBet is currently offering the BestOdds on the spread with their set +4.5, whilst other books are hovering around +3.5 or +4. Remember to seek out the best odds and lines at all times!
That will ensure you maximize your profits if and when your selections win.
For those of you tempted to take Las Vegas on the moneyline, make sure you head to FanDuel as their odds are +176, whilst BetRivers currently have the worst odds at +160.
Over/Under – Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (54) (-110)
I would doubt that during the next 20 weeks of my NFL parlay picks, I shall pick many totals for over which will be higher than 54.
Last season, my highest Over total was set at 51.5. I chose this on two occasions and each time the game went Under!
Maybe it’s because I am simply willing the NFL curtain raiser to be a feast for the eyes with a plethora of points being scored.
Maybe there is some sound logic behind two entertaining teams that when they went hot last season, both were scorching.
Maybe I’ve noticed how offensively charged both teams were in the first weeks of September 2022 and I expect lightning to strike twice.
I’m sure that I could find more compelling evidence that leans this game towards the over. To back up my theory, how about this stat?
The Chiefs averaged over 31 points in the first four games of the regular season, whilst the Lions shocked everyone with a whopping 35 points over the same period.
Well, let the sparks fly and the defenses be decimated. Despite this being the highest total of Week 1 by four points, I’m siding with the Over!
Today, I’m very much a glass half-full guy.
Over/Under – Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (43.5) (-110)
Soldier Field has played host to this clash of the NFC North titans on many occasions. In fact, these two teams have entertained their fans an NFL record 206 times!
For those of you interested in knowing which franchise owns the bragging rights; well, it’s Green Bay.
They lead 105-95 with 6 tied games along the way. Anyways, what does that fact have to do with my leaning of the under in this particular game?
The answer is not much, aside from the fact that these two rivals know each other inside out.
I don’t see an Aaron Rodgers-less Pack racking up a big score against a Bears team that struggled last season in the points for column.
With both franchises in that transitional phase, I expect a game of high turnovers and low scoring.
I shall leave you with a stat to cheer my mate Adam from Australia who is a passionate Bears fan. Chicago has only beaten Green Bay twice in the past decade!
That’s 2-18. For his sake, I wish them a winning start to their 2023 campaign. However, for the sake of my parlay, what I really care about is that we see fewer than 44 points.
The total has decreased by a couple of points over the course of the summer, but I still expect this game to be one of the least exciting of Week 1.
It’s the Under for me here and I would still be on that side of the total if it was set a touchdown lower!
Shopping For Odds
Remember that when making your parlay selections, you want to shop around to find the very Best Odds.
The compounding effect of parlays means that small odds differences in the separate legs of your bets can make a big impact on your final payout!
You don’t want to be told by your buddies that you would have made another $1,000 on your parlay had you bet it with a different sportsbook!
How To Bet NFL Parlays
A parlay bet is a sports wager that combines several bets on one ticket alone.
Usually, you would go with moneyline bets but can use spreads, totals, and futures.
You can include props in many cases, and bettors can choose to link together just two sides, or up to 15 or more depending on the sportsbook.
Parlays are wholly customizable meaning bettors get to choose how big they want the odds to go.
How many sides will be included, and how difficult is it to make each leg of the parlay or do the same game parlays.
The way to establish consistency is to have just two or three sides and avoid chasing astronomical odds.
It’s fine to take your shot at a massive payout as well, but be sure to only risk the money you’re prepared to lose.
Check out NFL parlay bets week 2 for betting ideas and to lock in early odds.
If you fancy regular bets, we have the NFL week 1 odds analysis worth checking out.
If the free game parlay promo isn’t for you.
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