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NFL Divisional Round Odds

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Jan 17, 2024

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Down to the final eight!

The sportsbooks had a good Wild Card round with a few upsets. A majority of money from bettors were backing the Cleveland Browns and Dallas Cowboys in their matchups.

The Browns were pummeled by the Texans, 45-14, and the Cowboys fell behind 27-0 and failed to make a comeback, losing to Green Bay 48-32.

Both young QBs, C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love, had memorable playoff debuts.

With only four games on the docket, bettors will have less opportunities for this NFL weekend to beat the books.

There’s little room for error, so let’s investigate these Divisional round matchups and find some profitable wagers, with the best odds!

Hopefully, this week is better for the bettors.

Saturday, January 20th

Houston Texans (+9, +350 ML) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-9, -390 ML)

Total: Over 43.5 (-110 | BetRivers), Under 44 (-110 | BetMGM)

When this game kicks off, it will have been two weeks since the Baltimore Ravens have played a game.

There could be a matter of rest vs. rust here for Baltimore.

It’s hard to go against the Ravens though, seeing that they’ve won 10 of their last 12 games, with their last loss coming against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a Week 18 “preseason” game.

This will also be the first playoff game for Lamar Jackson since January of 2021, with backup QB Tyler Huntley starting last season’s Wild Card loss against the Cincinnati Bengals, and Baltimore missing the playoffs in the 2021-22 season.

Jackson has made four playoff appearances in his career, and here’s a quick look at how he has done.

BAL Playoff OpponentLamar Jackson Results (Rating)Ravens W/L
2019 WC: Los Angeles (A)14/29, 194 Yds, 2 TD, INT (78.8)Loss
2020 WC: Tennessee31/59, 365 Yds, TD, 2 INT (63.2)Loss
2021 WC: Tennessee17/24, 179 Yds, 0 TD, INT (74.8)Win
2021 Div: Buffalo14/24, 162 Yds, 0 TD, INT (61.5)Loss

That’s a career passer rating of 68.3 for Jackson on a 55.9% completion percentage and three touchdown passes to five interceptions.

Obviously, the Ravens are more than Jackson.

Baltimore holds the NFL’s best scoring defense, allowing only 16.5 points per game, and their defense is allowing only 218.6 passing yards per game (8th in NFL), which could lead to frustrations for the young Stroud.

The Texans’ rookie QB continues to outperform expectations, proving to be a franchise superstar for Houston in his playoff debut victory over the Browns.

Stroud torched Cleveland’s defense last week, throwing for three touchdowns. Although the argument could be made that the Browns defense was crumbling down the stretch, allowing 14 touchdowns passes in their final six regular season games.

In 15 career games, including his lone playoff appearance, Stroud has only thrown five interceptions, and three of those came in one ugly game against the Arizona Cardinals back in Week 11.

The rookie has an impressive ability to keep the ball in the hands of his own offense, playing more reliably than many seasoned veteran QBs.

This ability to keep the ball in the right hands will be what keeps the Texans in this game.

That, and Jackson’s subpar playoff history.

Pick: Texans (+9) | Best Odds: (-110) BetMGM

Green Bay Packers (+9.5, +370 ML) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-9.5, -440 ML)

Total: Over 50.5 (-109 | BetRivers), Under 50.5 (-105 | FanDuel)

Replacing Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay was a tall task for Jordan Love, but he has grown in the Packers’ offense and has played admirably.

Finishing second in the NFL in touchdown passes (32) and picking up an upset win over the Dallas Cowboys in the playoffs is a great start to the Love Era in Green Bay.

The best way to beat the San Francisco 49ers defense is through the air, with the Niners sporting the NFL’s 13th-ranked passing defense, allowing 214.2 passing yards per game.

In all five of San Francisco’s losses, no individual rusher tallied more than 87 rushing yards (Joe Mixon, Week 8), so more of the offensive focus should fall on Love instead of running back Aaron Jones this week.

According to BestOdds EDGE, the defensive matchup favors the Niners.

Much like the Ravens receiving a first-round bye, kick-off in this game will end a two-week hiatus for the 49ers as well.

Niners’ running back Christian McCaffrey is nursing a calf strain that he suffered in Week 17, so the pause in action could be just what San Francisco’s offense needed.

The Packers’ rushing defense was one of the worst in the NFL this season, allowing 128.3 rushing yards per game (28th in NFL), and a less than 100% McCaffrey is still a more formidable threat than Cowboys’ running back Tony Pollard from the week prior.

Green Bay has been unspectacular on the road, going 4-5 as visitors in the regular season, which includes losses to the Las Vegas Raiders, Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos, and New York Giants.

Those are games the Packers should have won, and even some of their road wins were concerning, like Week 16’s 33-30 showdown with the 2-15 Carolina Panthers.

Green Bay has had an unexpected run in the last few weeks, but the 49ers are the superior team here.

Pick: 49ers (-9.5) | Best Odds: (-110) bet365

Sunday, January 21st

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5, +240 ML) vs. Detroit Lions (-6, -265 ML)

Total: Over 48.5 (-109 | BetRivers), Under 48.5 (-105 | FanDuel)

The Bucs just keep on winning.

Tampa Bay has won six of their last seven games, carrying a point differential of +61 in that time, and much of that scoring success can be attributed to the consistency of quarterback Baker Mayfield.

Mayfield has only thrown two interceptions since Week 14, pairing that number with 13 touchdown passes.

In Mayfield’s playoff career, he now holds a 102.7 passer rating in three games, with a 7:1 touchdown to interception ratio, so he’s managed to step up when it matters most.

The biggest concern for Tampa Bay has been their passing defense, as they’ve allowed 253.4 passing yards per game, 30th in the NFL.

The Bucs’ defensive secondary held up strong against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles last week, but Philly was also playing without their No. 1 receiver, A.J. Brown.

Tampa Bay will have a more difficult time slowing down Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta under the roof at Ford Field.

Detroit’s passing attack is the third-best in the NFL, collecting 270.9 passing yards per game, which should be a troublesome matchup for the Bucs’ defense.

In the regular season, Tampa Bay allowed 3,043 yards (4th-most) to wide receivers and 1,077 yards (3rd-most) to tight ends.

The Lions produced 22.1 first downs per game while the Bucs averaged only 17.9 first downs per game.

Detroit will be able to move the ball downfield much more efficiently, and that will lead to a series of first downs, and a comfortable win.

Pick: Lions (-6.5) | Best Odds: (-110) Caesars

Kansas City Chiefs (+3, +125 ML) vs. Buffalo Bills (-2.5, -142 ML)

Total: Over 45.5 (-108 | DraftKings), Under 46 (-110 | BetMGM)

Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen meet in the playoffs once again.

This will be the third Mahomes and Allen meeting in the postseason, with the Chiefs winning both previous matchups in high-scoring battles; Kansas City won 38-24 in 2021, and won again in 2022, 42-36.

Mahomes has not played like his typical superstar self in 2023-24, but when his defense is allowing under 20 points per game, maybe he doesn’t have to.

The Buffalo Bills’ defense is no slouch either.

Here’s a defensive comparison, courtesy of BestOdds EDGE:

While Mahomes vs. Allen will steal all of the headlines, this game could ultimately be a battle in the trenches.

Isiah Pacheco vs. James Cook!

These two rushing defenses are clearly the biggest weaknesses for both ball clubs, but Pacheco could have more success against the Bills.

Since the beginning of December, Pacheco has run much stronger, averaging 5.0 yards per carry, while Cook is averaging only 3.48 yards per carry in the same time frame.

Buffalo was out rushed in just six games this season, and in those six games with less rushing than their opponents, the Bills went 2-4.

The key to success against Buffalo is winning the ground game, which was an issue for Kansas City in their Week 14 loss to the Bills when Pacheco was out with an injury.

As a result, the Chiefs lost 20-17 with only 82 rushing yards on 4.6 yards per carry. Buffalo picked up 118 rushing yards on 4.2 yards per carry.

Kansas City will take some pressure off Mahomes and outrun the Bills in the Divisional round.

Pick: Chiefs Moneyline | Best Odds: (+125) BetRivers

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About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and enter...

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