NFL Player Prop Bets | Divisional Round
Eight teams remain on a quest to reach the Super Bowl and will battle it out this weekend in the Divisional Round.
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One of the main highlights of Wild Card Weekend was Washington rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels leading his team to a 23-20 upset win over the Buccaneers last Sunday.
This week, I’m recommending a prop for his teammate Olamide Zaccheaus (WAS at DET) and the Texans’ Joe Mixon (HOU at KC).
Remember to bet responsibly and monitor your bankroll carefully.
Read our Divisional Round odds and parlay picks for more information regarding the upcoming action.
Divisional Round Player Props
The odds for both picks were correct at the time of writing. They were shopped across legal U.S. sportsbooks.
Olamide Zaccheaus over 32.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
The WR2 for Washington cooled down last week with just three receptions for 19 yards against Tampa Bay.
From Weeks 15-18, Zaccheaus averaged 60.5 receiving yards per game and recorded 36 or more yards in all four contests.
Dyami Brown was the receiver who broke out against Tampa Bay with five catches for 89 yards.
Despite Brown’s impressive game, Zaccheaus has clearly become the team’s WR2 since Noah Brown was ruled out for the season after getting hurt in Week 13.
Since Week 14, Zaccheaus has earned a 16.9% target share (5.8 per game) and a 21.5% first read share.
During the same span, Dyami Brown has recorded a 12.5% target share (4.3 per game) and a 16.5% first read share.
The Commanders are 9.5-point underdogs away to Detroit this week. If oddsmakers are accurate and Washington trails, Zaccheaus should see plenty of looks from Daniels.
While weather might be a negative factor for other receivers hitting their overs, this game will be played in a dome (Ford Field).
The Virginia product faces a nice matchup against Detroit’s secondary, which ranks dead last (32nd) in terms of yards allowed to opposing wide receiver rooms.
The Lions were also the third-worst at defending the pass during the regular season, allowing 259 yards per game.
Odds Comparison
This bet holds value at bet365 (-110 for over 32.5 yards) thanks to other books such as FanDuel (-114), BetMGM (-115) and Caesars (-117), all listing him with worse odds with the exact total.
DraftKings (33.5 yards) and ESPN BET (34.5 yards) have his total higher, with odds of -110 and -105 for the over.
Joe Mixon over 54.5 rush yards (-120 at BetMGM)
In my opinion, this prop is definitely riskier than Zaccheaus’ but it’s hard to pass up with many books listing Mixon’s total between 57.5 and 59.5 yards, and with less valuable odds.
Excluding Week 2, when Mixon was injured early in the third quarter against the Bears and had to leave the game, and Week 18, when he was pulled early with the starters to rest, Mixon surpassed 54.5 rushing yards in 9 out of 13 games (69.2%).
During those 13 outings, the former Oklahoma Sooner averaged 19.69 carries per game. It’s no secret Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans likes to put the ball in his playmaker’s hands. With that kind of volume, 54.5 rush yards is attainable.
Last week, as three-point underdogs to the Chargers, Mixon ran for 106 yards on 25 carries in a 32-12 win.
I don’t expect him to get close to 106 yards this week, especially as an 8.5-point underdog, but I do like that he averaged 93.69 rush yards in the 13 games he was healthy.
Mixon also cleared this line with 14 carries for 57 yards against the Chiefs in Week 16 when the Texans lost 27-19.
Kansas City’s defense has been stout against the run over the course of the entire season. The unit has allowed 4.1 yards per carry (fifth-best) and 101.8 rush yards per game (eighth-best).
Although, it softened over its final three meaningful games of the season. From Weeks 15-17 (Week 18 is excluded), an average of 5.92 yards per attempt was allowed against the Browns, Texans, and Steelers.
Week 18 is excluded because the starters were rested due to clinching the No. 1 seed. Four running backs eclipsed the 54.5-yard mark in those contests.
Line Comparison
| Sportsbook | Rush Yard Total | Odds |
| BetMGM | 54.5 | -120 |
| ESPN BET | 59.5 | +100 |
| DraftKings | 58.5 | -115 |
| FanDuel | 57.5 | -110 |
| bet365 | 57.5 | -110 |
| Caesars | 57.5 | -125 |
