NFL Divisional Round Parlay

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Jan 17, 2024

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Typically, the weekly parlay article will consist of five legs, but with only eight teams remaining and four games for the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs this weekend, the parlay has been trimmed to four legs.

Three of the four matches will be a rematch from earlier in the season.

C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans will visit the Baltimore Ravens, just as they did back in Week 1.

Since then, a lot has changed.

Stroud has proven to be a franchise QB for the Texans, and with last week’s playoff win over the Cleveland Browns, Stroud now has as many wins in his playoff career as Lamar Jackson.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will seek revenge on the Detroit Lions after the Lions came into Tampa’s Raymond James Stadium in Week 6 and quieted the Bucs, winning 20-6.

It was a classic Goff-to-St. Brown game. Jared Goff threw for 353 yards and two touchdowns and Amon-Ra St. Brown hauled in 12 receptions for 124 yards and a touchdown.

The Bucs’ defensive secondary will certainly be on their toes this week in Detroit.

The Buffalo Bills will host the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round, and the Bills’ record of 11-6 includes a victory over the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium back in Week 14, winning 20-17.

It was a defensive-first game for these usually high-scoring squads, and the Bills controlled the ground game and the clock, keeping Kansas City’s offense off the field.

Buffalo had ten more carries for their running game and had nearly 11 more minutes in time of possession.

Although the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers have not met this season, they will meet for an NFL record 10th time in the playoffs this Saturday.

The Wild Card games were appropriately wild. Let’s see if the Divisional Round can keep the excitement flowing.

The best way to keep the excitement high is by placing a parlay!

I’ll be placing this Divisional Round parlay on BetRivers.

Spread – Houston Texans (+9) vs. Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson is a world-class talent at QB, but in the playoffs, he hasn’t looked like his MVP-caliber self.

Jackson has a 68.3 career passer rating in the playoffs, and the Ravens are just 1-3 in his four postseason starts.

When it comes to playoff success, Jackson really has nowhere to go but up.

Hypothetically, if the Ravens were to lose this game, and Jackson struggles, Baltimore will only have one playoff win in six seasons with Jackson under center.

After signing a five-year, $260 million contract in 2023, the Ravens would certainly like to see a Super Bowl win for Jackson.

Houston got the better of former Baltimore QB Joe Flacco last week, picking off Flacco twice, both for touchdowns, in the Texans’ win over the Browns.

Passing defense was not the forte of the Texans’ defense in the regular season, but if they can pressure Jackson enough, they could force a mistake or two.

Stroud should assist Houston’s offense to a couple of points on the scoreboard, and the Texans’ quietly strong defense will keep some points off the board.

Houston will hang around late.

Pick: Texans (+9 | -110) BetRivers

Spread – Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)

Christian McCaffrey is set to play his first game since Week 17 against the Washington Commanders, which was December 31st.

That could be bad news for the Green Bay Packers 28th-ranked rushing defense.

Green Bay was 9-8 in the regular season, and here’s a look at how their rushing defense has fared in their wins and losses.

GB Opp. RushingCarriesRushing YdsRush TDYPCYds/Game
9 Wins22694354.17104.8
8 Losses2701,238104.59154.8

If teams don’t abandon the running game, they can run right through the Packers.

The Dallas Cowboys were not very fortunate last week, so they did abandon the running game against Green Bay, with Prescott attempting 60 passes in the Green Bay win.

That should be a different story this week for the San Francisco 49ers.

If San Francisco can contain Jordan Love and the Packers’ passing attack, they should be able to take a lead and grind down the clock.

The amount of offensive weapons for the 49ers will be too much for Green Bay’s defense this week.

In the Pack’s Wild Card win, Dak Prescott attempted 29 of his 60 passes to just CeeDee Lamb (17) and Jake Ferguson (12) in the Wild Card loss. That’s 48.3% of all passes targeting just two receivers.

On Saturday, the Packers will have to find a way to properly cover McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle, and that will prove to be too much.

Pick: 49ers (-9.5 | -112) BetRivers

Spread – Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions (-6.5)

Sometimes, success in the playoffs simply comes down to which team is rolling.

The Buccaneers have been rolling, winning six of their last seven games.

Rolling is easier going downhill, but getting past the Detroit Lions will be an uphill battle.

Tampa did win six of their last seven games but it was a downhill slide for most of those opponents.

Here’s a quick look at how the Bucs fared in their last seven games and how their opponent was playing in their previous five games.

Tampa Bay OpponentOpponent’s Last Five ResultsBucs’ Result
Week 13: Carolina1-4Win
Week 14: Atlanta2-3Win
Week 15: Green Bay3-2Win
Week 16: Jacksonville2-3Win
Week 17: New Orleans2-3Loss
Week 18: Carolina1-4Win
Wild Card: Philadelphia1-4Win

In the last seven games Tampa Bay has only played one team that entered the contest with a winning record in the previous five games, and that was Green Bay in Week 15. Baker Mayfield did will his team to a win in Lambeau Field, but that may not be as simple a task in the playoffs against the Lions.

In Detroit’s last five games, they are 4-1.

Tampa Bay’s passing defense will be challenged with cooling off Jared Goff, and quieting down Amon-Ra St. Brown.

St. Brown picked up nine games of 100 or more receiving yards in the regular season, and did it once again in his first game of the postseason.

The Buccaneers are 2-4 this season when an opposing QB throws for 300 or more yards, like Goff did down in Tampa back in Week 6 (353 yds, 2 TD).

In Detroit, the Bucs stop here.

Pick: Lions (-6.5 | -110) BetRivers

Moneyline – Kansas City Chiefs (+125) vs. Buffalo Bills

This game is shaping up to be a defensive battle, with both defenses in this contest allowing less than 20 points per game.

Kansas City’s offense has taken a bit of a step back in 2023, and with that came a lot more closer, lower-scoring games.

In fact, the Chiefs have played in 13 games this season that went under the total, and in those 13 unders, they hold a record of 8-5.

For comparison, the Buffalo Bills have played in 11 games that finished under the total, and in those contests the Bills have a record of 7-4.

In a close game such as this, I feel more comfortable backing Patrick Mahomes, who is 11-3 in 14 career playoff games.

At a certain point, one man’s track record becomes too hard to ignore.

Also, something in my gut tells me that this just isn’t the year for Buffalo.

Josh Allen has been turnover prone, turning the ball over 21 times (18 interceptions, 3 fumbles) in the regular season, and it may be just a matter of time before the turnovers return.

I don’t want to be backing the Bills when they do.

This game is going to be a tight contest, but the Chiefs come out victorious.

Maybe on a game-clinching field goal from Harrison Butker?

Pick: Chiefs Moneyline (+125) BetRivers

NFL Divisional Round Parlay – BetRiversOdds
Houston (+9) vs. BAL-110
San Francisco (-9.5) vs. GB-112
Detroit (-6.5) vs. TB-110
Kansas City (ML) vs. BUF+125
Divisional Round Parlay Odds+1460

A $10 wager on this NFL playoff parlay would win $146.00!

How To Bet NFL Parlays

A parlay bet is a sports wager that combines several bets on one ticket alone.

Usually, you would go with moneyline bets but can use spreads, totals, and futures.

You can include props in many cases, and bettors can choose to link together just two sides, or up to 15 or more depending on the sportsbook.

Parlays are wholly customizable meaning bettors get to choose how big they want the odds to go.

How many sides will be included, and how difficult is it to make each leg of the parlay or do the same game parlays.

The way to establish consistency is to have just two or three sides and avoid chasing astronomical odds.

It’s fine to take your shot at a massive payout as well, but be sure to only risk the money you’re prepared to lose.If you fancy regular bets, we got the NFL Divisional Odds analysis worth checking out.

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About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and en...

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