If you’re looking for sure picks, below are my best parlay bets for the Wild Card round.
I have evaluated all the Wild Card games and come up with my locks for a five-bet parlay. If you hit this five-bet $100 parlay, the payout would be just over $1,500.
Last week’s parlay didn’t hit, but I did get four out of five picks correct. Close, but no cigar!
Moneyline: Buccaneers (-375)
Tampa Bay will be looking to continue their title defense with a win over the Eagles. Tom Brady is the Bucs’ not-so-secret weapon. He has an incredible playoff record of 34-11.
Tampa’s offense is second in scoring, with 30.1 points per game. Their defense is fifth in points allowed with 20.8. Brady will also have Leonard Fournette back for this game.
The Eagles have found their identity as a run-heavy team. They average 159.7 rushing yards per game, which is the most in the NFL. However, the Bucs only concede 92.5 rushing yards per game.
I think the Eagles will struggle to run the ball as effectively as usual and the Bucs will cruise to victory.
Spread: Bengals to cover (-4.5) (-114)
The Bengals have returned to the playoffs after an explosive regular season. They have beaten their opponents by more than five points on seven occasions this season.
The Bengals are 10-7 against the spread and already beat the Raiders by 19 points in Week 11. Cincinnati is averaging 27.1 points per game and conceding 22.1 points.
The Raiders have overcome a lot of off-field controversies to make the playoffs. They concede the 26th most points per game in the league and have a negative points differential over the season.
The Raiders will make it challenging for the Bengals, but I think Cincinnati will still cover the spread.
Over/Under: (Under 46.5 points) (-110)
The Chiefs have home-field advantage for the third year in a row. The Steelers had a lot of luck on their side to make it to the playoffs. These teams have exceptional defenses, so I expect them to hit the under.
The Steelers have been conceding 23 points per game, but Pittsburgh has conceded more than 20 points once in their last four games. They are only scoring around 20 points per game.
The Chiefs are conceding 21.4 points per game and scoring 28.2 points. When these teams met in Week 16, they combined for 46 points, with the Chiefs scoring 36 of those points.
I think this will be a low-scoring game and I shall be cheering for the under.
Over/Under Passing Yards: Mac Jones (over 204.5) (-118)
Mac Jones has had an outstanding rookie season. He has an excellent 67.6% completion rate and has thrown for more than 3,800 yards. He has also protected the ball well with a TD: INT ratio of 22:13.
Thanks to the Pats’ run-heavy style of offense Jones only averaged 223.6 yards per game. In his previous two games against Buffalo, he threw for 164 yards. However, those games were played in harsh windy conditions.
The Bills’ defense has been their strong point this year. They have conceded the fewest yards per game in the league. They are also conceding just 163 passing yards per game.
Even with Buffalo’s stout defense, I think Jones will hit the over, with not as much wind forecast as last time when the Patriots threw the ball just three times.
Over/Under Receiving Yards: George Kittle (over 50.5) (-105)
Since returning from injury in Week 8, Kittle has been outstanding. He has had three 100+ yards days, two of which were for 150+ yards. He is averaging 68.3 yards per game in these ten games.
Kittle has an outstanding 12.8 yards per catch and is Garoppolo’s favorite target after Samuel. Garoppolo is averaging 254 yards per game with a completion rate of 68.3%.
The Cowboys’ defense has improved dramatically since 2020. Their key players are Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs. The Cowboys are conceding 238.2 yards per game and are leading the NFL in takeaways.
I think Kittle will run riot, even though the Cowboys’ defense has improved.
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