NFL Wild Card Parlay

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Jan 9, 2024

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Week 18 of the regular season had some preseason vibes, with backups stepping in to keep star players healthy for the playoffs.

Chances are, last week did very little in altering bettor’s opinions on the fourteen teams that made the postseason.

For this Wild Card round, I’ll construct a parlay with season-long numbers from our BestOdds Stats Hub.

The data will need to be more season-long because there’s nothing that Sam Darnold could have done that would have changed my opinion on the San Francisco 49ers.

I’ll place this parlay on BetMGM, which has plenty of welcoming offers to new users!

Let’s sift through this six-game Wild Card slate and find some interesting legs for this playoff parlay!

Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans

According to BestOdds Team Total Stats, the Cleveland Browns went over their team total 10 times in 17 games, which is a rate of 59% on the over of their team total.

The Browns’ offense may be more of a threat than they have been given credit for.

Since Joe Flacco has taken over as QB1 in Cleveland, the Browns have averaged 28.6 points per game.

That’s a big difference for a team that averaged only 21.1 points prior to Flacco joining, now averaging a touchdown more per game.

While plenty of focus has been on the Texans’ offense, and rightfully so, with the play of rookie QB C.J. Stroud, the Texans have still gone under their team total in 11 of 17 games, giving Houston an over rate of only 35% on team total scoring.

Against this Cleveland defense, I don’t like the Texans chances of putting up many points.

These two teams recently played each other in Week 16, with the Browns winning 36-22, but with a 36-7 lead early in the fourth quarter, Cleveland took some starters out of their defense late and allowed Texans’ backup QB Davis Mills to throw two garbage-time touchdowns.

The game was never close, and even with Stroud suiting up against the Browns in this one, I don’t see Cleveland letting this game get away from them.

Pick: Browns Moneyline (-145) BetMGM

Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs have failed to cover the first half spread in each of their last four games, and according to the BestOdds 1st Half ATS Stats, Kansas City has a cover rate of only 43.8% in the opening half.

Failing to cover the spread in the first half has led to plenty of close games for the Chiefs; in fact, 11 of their 17 games finished as a one-possession game.

This Chiefs squad isn’t blowing out opponents like they have in years past, and with the AFC Conference’s highest-scoring team on the other side of the ball, the Miami Dolphins should keep this game close, or even walk out with a win.

This offensive comparison from BestOdds EDGE shows that the Dolphins’ offense has been much better than the Chiefs’ this season.

Kansas City’s +0.38 ATS margin in the first half is 18th in the NFL, and if they fall behind to Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and this Dolphins offense, I’m not sure they’ll be able to catch up.

For this parlay, I’ll play it safe and take Miami to cover the spread, but an upset victory at Arrowhead Stadium is a worthy play here.

Pick: Dolphins +4 (-110) BetMGM

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills

The cover rate to focus on in this game will be how well the fans are covered up in the cold January weather in Buffalo.

But, even with temperatures expected to be in the low 20s, there will still be a few shirtless dudes in the crowd. It’s the natural way for the Bills Mafia.

According to BestOdds Stats, the under occurred in 11 of 17 games for both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills this season, an under rate of 65% for both squads.

In this game, with frigid and windy conditions expected, the books have set the total low, with BetMGM setting their total at 36.5.

Since 2020, there have been five playoff games played in Buffalo, with the average total finishing at 47.4 points.

In those five games, the average temperature was 26.8 degrees, with a typical wind speed of seven miles per hour, and an average total set of 47.3, just 0.1 from where the average total has finished.

The higher winds should create some more chaos in this one.

With a high of 23 degrees expected and 21 mile per hour winds, and considering that the Steelers are the NFL’s 27th-ranked scoring offense, I still like the under here.

I’ll say the final score will be 17-10, Bills.

Pick: Under 36.5 (-110) BetMGM

Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys

BestOdds Stats tells me that the Dallas Cowboys average 37.4 points per game at home, the best mark in the NFL.

Interestingly, the Green Bay Packers average 25.3 points per game on the road, the second-best mark in the NFL, behind only the 49ers (30.3 ppg).

Dallas has won 16 consecutive home games, dating back to their loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1 of the 2022 season, and I expect them to continue that streak here.

Although the Packers have scored plenty of points on the road, they didn’t have the toughest road schedule, with the combined record of all nine road opponents being 67-86 (.437).

Green Bay’s number of 25.3 points per game on the road seems even more inflated considering that they averaged 29.3 points per game in their last three road contests against the New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, and Minnesota Vikings.

Also, you can’t mess with Dak Prescott at home. The Cowboy’s QB is a different man inside AT&T Stadium.

Prescott H/RComp%Yards/GameTDINTQB Rating
Home73.3%308.8223120
Road62.6%227.314692.4

Green Bay’s road scoring numbers suggest that they may be able to stick around, but the Cowboys are a different team at home, and they should be able to cover here.

Pick: Cowboys -7.5 (-110) BetMGM

Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions

The over has occurred in 11 of 17 games for the Detroit Lions this season, and across all of the Lions’ games, the final score went above 50 points 10 times.

Detroit’s defense has allowed a chunk of points to opponents, allowing an average of 25.6 points per game in their last nine.

That bodes well for the Los Angeles Rams’ offense, which has been clicking in the latter half of this season.

The Rams have scored at least 21 points in each of their last seven games, and quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown for 15 touchdowns in his last six starts.

Adding to that solid passing attack, Los Angeles now has a dependable running back in Kyren Williams.

Williams has averaged 5.02 yards per carry this season, compiling 1,144 rushing yards and 15 total touchdowns.

Both of these defenses rank in the bottom half of the league in points against; the Rams allowing 22.2 points per game (19th) and the Lions allowing 23.2 points per game (23rd).

BestOdds Stats tells me that over rate from both Detroit and Los Angeles’ combined games was 59%.

With both of these teams in the Top-10 in scoring offense, I’d expect a bevy of points under the roof of Ford Field.

I’ll say the final score will be 42-38, Lions.

Pick: Over 51.5 (-110) BetMGM

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Philadelphia Eagles have lost five of their last six games, and I don’t think it’s a fluke.

I think the Eagles starting the season 10-1 was a fluke.

Philadelphia’s defense has allowed 25.2 points per game (30th in NFL), and they’ve been especially bad at defending the pass, allowing 267.7 passing yards per game (28th in NFL).

Baker Mayfield has done enough to prove that he can be a franchise QB for the Bucs, and in his first playoff game in Tampa Bay, Mayfield will go one step further in proving just that.

In the Eagles last three losses, they have lost to Seattle Seahawks’ QB Drew Lock, Arizona Cardinals’ Kyler Murray, and New York Giants’ Tyrod Taylor.

Mayfield is a superior QB to all three of those quarterbacks.

Also, the Eagles lost their chance at a home playoff game, and that could be their downfall.

Philly averages 30.9 points per game at home this season, but only 20.7 points per game on the road, according to BestOdds Team Total Stats.

That 10-point difference is fairly large.

Mayfield and the Bucs’ receivers of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are going to send the Eagles home early.

Pick: Buccaneers Moneyline (+135) BetMGM

Wild Card Parlay Legs – BetMGMOdds
Cleveland ML vs. HOU-145
Miami (+4) vs. KC-110
Under 36.5 (PIT vs. BUF)-110
Dallas (-7.5) vs. GB-110
Over 51.5 (LAR vs. DET)-110
Tampa Bay ML vs. PHI+135
Wild Card Parlay Odds+5174

A $10 wager on this Wild Card Parlay would payout $527.44!

How To Bet NFL Parlays

A parlay bet is a sports wager that combines several bets on one ticket alone.

Usually, you would go with moneyline bets but can use spreads, totals, and futures.

You can include props in many cases, and bettors can choose to link together just two sides, or up to 15 or more depending on the sportsbook.

Parlays are wholly customizable meaning bettors get to choose how big they want the odds to go.

How many sides will be included, and how difficult is it to make each leg of the parlay or do the same game parlays.

The way to establish consistency is to have just two or three sides and avoid chasing astronomical odds.

It’s fine to take your shot at a massive payout as well, but be sure to only risk the money you’re prepared to lose.

If you fancy regular bets, we got the NFL Wild Card odds analysis worth checking out.

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About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and en...

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