Updated: Jan 9, 2023
If you’re looking for exciting picks, below are my best parlay bets for the Wild Card round.
I have evaluated all the Wild Card games and come up with my locks for a five-bet parlay.
If you hit this five-bet $100 parlay, the payout would be just over $2,750.
Last week’s parlay didn’t hit, but I nailed my moneyline underdog again!
That took my record on that part of my parlay bets to 14-4 during the regular season.
How will I perform now that we have entered the playoffs?!
Chargers @ Jaguars For Moneyline Parlay (Jags at +105 ML)
Along with the Bucs, the other Floridian team in the playoffs, the Jags are home dogs.
Whereas I simply cannot see the GOAT pull off a surprise victory against the rampant Cowboys, I think the Jaguars can emerge victorious.
The Chargers have snuck into the playoffs thanks to a friendly 2022 schedule. Admittedly, Justin Herbert has been impressive through the air, but they have not been blowing away their opponents.
Trevor Lawrence in his current five game unbeaten streak has been showing why pundits were so excited about his potential.
The stardust he spread abundantly during his Clemson days has been reappearing in recent weeks.
He has almost single handedly lifted up a mediocre franchise into playoff joy. That is the sign of a born leader and future hall of famer.
Jags’ fans but be excited for what the coming seasons hold in store. Could we have another Patrick Mahomes on our hands? My gut says yes.
I expect Jacksonville to overcome the Chargers and then head north to usurp the Bengals. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves yet, but that’s what my crystal ball is telling me.
The Jags are my moneyline underdog pick of the weekend.
Now for my first spread selection.
Giants @ Vikings (Vikings to Cover at -3 @ +100)
I write this with nervous trepidation.
Whenever you compose an article about your childhood team, it’s hard not to be slightly biased.
So, it can come as no surprise to you that I would have to include the Vikes somehow in this parlay. After all, we only have six games from which to choose!
Minnesota has had a stellar season. Justin Jefferson has been in imperious form. Kurt Cousins has remarkably made the Pro Bowl.
And the Vikings have developed the uncanny ability to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
Consistently this season, they defied the expectations of sportsbooks, pundits and fans alike.
What does concern me mildly is that on their ‘off’ days, they go very ‘off’! Crushing defeats by the Packers, Eagles and Cowboys attest to that.
This season, they seemed to have had an allergy to NFC East teams.
I sincerely hope that the Giants do not gain revenge for their rather unlucky Christmas Eve defeat. It would be bitterly disappointing if we see three teams from the NFC East playing the Divisional Games later this month!
Go the Vikes. Have a ‘on’ day please and emerge victorious…
Ravens @ Bengals (Under 43.5 Points at -110)
I seem to have written a lot about these two teams in the past week!
These AFC North foes know a lot about each other. They face off for the third time in three months.
The Ravens won their first encounter of the season 19-17. The Bengals exact revenge yesterday with an easy 27-16 victory.
These teams have a history of some low-scoring match ups over the years.
More of them occur in Ohio than Maryland. I expect this trend to continue this weekend.
The Ravens have averaged less than 20 points during the second half of the season whilst their talismanic general has been mostly injured.
As of now, it’s still uncertain whether Lamar will be under center or not. The Ravens defense might not be as tight as in the Ray Lewis era.
Yet they have kept every opponent since September to below 30 points.
From an entertainment perspective, we would all love to watch a repeat of the 62 points these teams put up on this fixture over Christmas 2021.
However, for the sake of my parlay, I want this to be a dull game with defenses on top and few points being scored.
Dolphins @ Bills (Bills to Cover at – 10.5 @ -110)
I simply cannot see how the Dolphins can win this game, let alone cover the spread. There are too many factors for them to overcome.
For a start, the Bills are a team playing close to peak performance.
They already had a wonderful camaraderie and spirit before the tragic events of last weekend. They are more closely knit than ever before.
Buffalo is also blessed with talented stars and unsung heroes across the squad. The days of Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas are merely a blast from the past.
The franchise now means business and can pack a mighty punch.
Miami has overachieved this season thanks to Mr Hill’s phenomenal athleticism and raw speed. The cold will nullify his explosiveness.
We can expect Buffalo to wear down their frigid visitors and keep control of the clock.
FanDuel has the best odds for this individual leg of my parlay. They have the Bills at -10.5 on the spread, whilst a range of sportsbooks are now at -11.5.
Remember it always pays to shop around to obtain the best value.
Cowboys @ Buccaneers (Over 44.5 points @-110)
And now for the final leg of my Wild Card Weekend Parlay.
The GOAT managed to sneak his losing team into the playoffs. This surely came courtesy of his remarkable talent and the ineptitude of the Bucs’ NFC South divisional rivals.
Let’s lay out some stats about these two teams and the situation where they find themselves.
Dallas was only outscored by the Chiefs and Eagles this season. They racked up 467 points at an average of just under 27.5.
The Bucs struggled somewhat to put points on the board this season. In fact, only the reigning Super Bowls champs managed to score less points than Tampa Bay in the NFC. Isn’t that a remarkable statistic regarding the Rams!?
From Super Bowl victors to having the wooden spoon in terms of points scored for their Championship.
Wow, that really is a fall from grace! Well, enough about Los Angeles. The Buccaneers only managed 313 points at an average of less than 18.5.
Based on that datapoint, is it actually the Bucs’ D which has dragged the GOAT into the playoffs? That is a matter of debate for another time.
The case in point here is that the Cowboys know how to score points, and lots of them at that. Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr is possibly playing the final game of his remarkable career.
He will be yearning to keep the scoreboard busy. Given this background, even if the total was greater than 50 points, I’d be leaning the over.
Deep down, I feel that if Dak is on fire and the Cowboys are too good for the Bucs, then the GOAT will go down fighting and score at least a couple of touchdowns in the fourth quarter.
It is likely my heart ruling my head (which is never a good idea when betting!), but I WANT to witness a high-scoring classic on Monday night.
The over is the final leg in my latest weekly NFL parlay.
However, there is one other parlay which I would like to put forward.
One of my favorite newsletters is from the team at the Morning Blitz. 364 days a year, they provide an entertaining and insightful commentary on all topics sporting. It has become a staple part of my daily diet.
It’s a special newsletter in that I also read it through in its entirety.
They do a great job of producing quality content on a daily basis. I believe that along with the excellent BestOdds newsletter (sign up here if you are not already a subscriber to Malcolm’s musings), the Morning Blitz is the one other sports-related newsletter which I tell my friends to subscribe to.
For what it’s worth, I also think that Huddle Up produces a good newsletter relating to the business of sports. It comes out three times a week.
Anyways, a Morning Blitz’s subscriber, one James G from Fort Worth, suggested this morning that all six games of this upcoming Wild Card Weekend would be won by the home team.
If you agree with James, then you should head to BetMGM, as they offer some excellent welcome deals on parlays.
According to ParlayCalculator.com, the odds for landing this particular parlay of all six home teams winning is just shy of +1400.
If my parlay is not to land this weekend, then I would like to cheer on James G with his one!
How To Bet NFL Parlays
A parlay bet is a sports wager that combines several bets on one ticket alone.
Usually, you would go with moneyline bets but can use spreads, totals, and futures.
You can include props in many cases, and bettors can choose to link together just two sides, or up to 15 or more depending on the sportsbook.
Parlays are wholly customizable meaning bettors get to choose how big they want the odds to go.
How many sides will be included, and how difficult is it to make each leg of the parlay or do the same game parlays.
The way to establish consistency is to have just two or three sides and avoid chasing astronomical odds.
It’s fine to take your shot at a massive payout as well, but be sure to only risk the money you’re prepared to lose.
If you fancy regular bets, we got the NFL Wild Card odds analysis worth checking out.