Odds For NFL Week 9

We’ve reached the halfway point of the NFL season.

It’s a bittersweet moment, as we have another round of NFL playoff games to consume but half our RedZone Sundays have been taken from us.

Week 9 is the most prolific Bye week on the schedule, FYI.

Six teams have a Bye this week (CLE, DAL, DEN, NYG, PIT, SF), and there are only two 4 p.m. games as a result.

But there’s still plenty of entertainment and value to be found this week, including Rams-Bucs and Titans-Chiefs.

So, read on for betting odds, picks, and predictions for Week 9 of the NFL season.

With NFL odds for Week 9 finding their range, let’s preview all 14 games.

Thursday Night Football

Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5, -700 ML) Vs. Houston Texans (+13.5, +550 ML)

I am downright stuck on this game.

How do you evaluate Jalen Hurts on a short week? How will Davis Mills and company perform as home dogs?

For what it’s worth, Hurts has covered the one time he played on Thursday Night, losing by six as a seven-point dog against Tom Brady’s Bucs.

But more influential, Davis Mills’ Texans have an uncanny ability to cover as a home underdog. This is not a good Houston team, but the Texans can be frisky.

I do not trust Hurts’ Eagles enough to lay points with them on the road, and I find this an interesting opportunity for Mills and the Texans.

I’ll take the points. This spread has moved from +5.5 at the start of the season to nearly two touchdowns now.

I still think the Eagles will remain unbeaten, but the Texans will run them closer than people think.

My pick: Houston Texans +13.5 (-110) | Playable at number

Game Kickoff – 1 p.m. EST

Carolina Panthers (+8, +320 ML) Vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5, -417 ML)

The Panthers should probably be catching more points here, but the Bengals are coming off a short week after playing the Browns on Monday Night and are looking ahead to a Bye week next week.

It’s maybe a sleeper spot for Cincinnati, and the Bengals are a high-variance team.

I want to look towards the Panthers here as a value pick, but I don’t trust coach Matt Rhule or whatever quarterback enough to do it.

It’s a complex spot for both teams.

I do lean toward the Bengals considering this is the second game of Carolina’s road trip, but I’ll likely stay away.

My pick: Pass | Lean Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 (-112)

Buffalo Bills (-13, -650 ML) Vs. New York Jets (+13, +500 ML)

This seems like a good time to remind everyone that home dogs of a touchdown or more have covered at a 55% clip since 2004.

The Jets quintessentially fit that bill here.

Josh Allen has played the Jets three times in the Meadowlands, winning outright in all three games and covering in two.

But this is a sandwich spot for Buffalo.

The Bills just hosted the Packers on Sunday Night Football and host the Vikings next week, and could likely sleepwalk their way through this road game against an inferior opponent.

In the meanwhile, the Jets have a Bye week to look ahead to. They could go all-out in this one.

It’s a tough ask, but I think Zach Wilson and the Jets keep it within the number in Week 9.

My pick: New York Jets +13 (-107) | Playable at number

Los Angeles Chargers (-3, -155 ML) Vs. Atlanta Falcons (+3, +140)

Justin Herbert and Brandon Staley have a habit of disappointing when road favorites.

Just look at how they finished last season. 

All three games were rather embarrassing:

• 11/28/21: Lost to Denver 28-13 as three-point favorites
• 12/26/21: Lost to Houston 41-29 as 13-point favorites
• 1/9/22: Lost to Las Vegas 35-32 as three-point favorites

Despite their overall record, I like the Chargers a lot this season, and I like that they are coming off a Bye week in this game.

But there’s too much evidence for the home underdog here.

However, the field goal line feels spot on. I’ll keep my powder dry on this game.

My pick: Pass 

Green Bay Packers (-3, -162 ML) Vs. Detroit Lions (+3, +152)

The Packers are tired. Four losses on the bounce tired!

This is the third and final game of a three-week road trip for Green Bay, and that doesn’t include the London game they played in Week 5.

The Packers don’t get a Bye until Week 14 either, so this team needs to hold strong for Aaron Rodgers.

I’m not sure Rodgers or the team holds up strong in this spot.

Surprisingly, the Lions have covered six of the last eight games against Rodgers, and are now catching three points at home with continuity in the coaching staff and an improved roster.

Despite the lack of victories this season, I expect Dan Campbell and the Lions to keep it inside the number.

My pick: Detroit Lions +3 (-105) | Playable at number

Indianapolis Colts (+6, +220 ML) Vs. New England Patriots (-6, -240 ML)

What a fascinating handicap.

No matter the changes in the quarterback room and coaching room, Colts vs Patriots will always have a little extra flair.

I appreciate that we’re getting Matt Ryan vs Mac Jones in this one.

The Colts have made the more significant upgrades since the two last met, which ended up in a convincing 10-point Colts victory.

While the Colts did play that game in Indianapolis, I like them to take this one as well.

If you can outplay Bill Belichick in the trenches, you can generally beat the Patriots.

Despite the improvements from Mac Jones and the receiver corps, that’s what it boils down to.

The Colts could do that last year and only improved with Matt Ryan as their quarterback. I’ll take the Colts to cover the spread in a tough road game.

My pick: Indianapolis Colts +6 (-105) | Playable at number

Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5, -117 ML) Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5, +110 ML)

Sure, the Jaguars are at home. Sure, the Jaguars have looked better underneath an improved coaching staff.

This is still not enough points.

The Raiders are a legit NFL team with a solid quarterback, solid weapons, and a competitive defense. 

Let’s just ignore last week’s shutout!

The Jags have not put it together yet, and this line feels like Trevor Lawrence getting too much respect.

Look for Josh McDaniels and Derek Carr to out-maneuver Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson on the way to a resounding victory.

My pick: Las Vegas Raiders -1.5 (-110) | Playable at number

Miami Dolphins (-4.5, -205 ML) Vs. Chicago Bears (+4.5, +180)

This part of the season has become the NFC North-AFC East carousel.

The Bears are off two road games against the Patriots and Cowboys, while the Dolphins are off three straight games against the Vikings, Steelers, and Lions.

I have no take on this game.

If I had to pick, I think the Mike McDaniel-led Dolphins emerge victorious, but laying more than three points on the road with the Dolphins slightly scares me.

My pick: Pass | Lean Miami Dolphins -4.5 (-107)

Cleveland Browns (+4.5, +180 ML) vs Miami Dolphins (-4.5, -210 ML) 

This game is very tough to handicap. I think the Browns have an advantage, especially in the trenches, where the Dolphins’ defensive line shouldn’t have much success against a great Cleveland rush attack. 

However, how do you handicap the Mike McDaniel factor? And how do you handicap Tua vs Jacoby? And how do you handicap the South Florida heat for Kevin Stefanski and co.? 

Plus, the Dolphins are pretty talented at the second and third levels of the defense. 

I’ll take a hard pass on this game, although I do lean toward the Browns. 

My pick: Pass | Lean Cleveland Browns +4.5 (-110) 

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, -170 ML) Vs. Washington Commanders (3.5, +156 ML)

I was shocked that this game opened as a pick ‘em.

Unsurprisingly, the line has shifted in Minnesota’s favor as the season has progressed.

Despite having a moderate home-field advantage, in what area of the field does Washington have an advantage?

Washington could maybe produce pressure against a mediocre offensive line, but the Vikings have made improvements to that unit.

And the Washington secondary is a dumpster fire.

If Kirk Cousins has just enough time to throw, he will shred Washington to pieces.

And if you plan on backing Washington in this one, you have to bank on Carson Wentz. Minnesota’s defense is nothing special, but it doesn’t take much to bother Wentz.

I’ll happily take Minnesota all the way up to a touchdown.

My pick: Minnesota Vikings -3.5 (-105) | Playable at number

Game Kickoff – 4 p.m. EST

Seattle Seahawks (+2, +110) Vs. Arizona Cardinals (-2, -125)

This is the most classic Kliff Kingsbury-Kyler Murray letdown spot I’ve ever seen.

First, you’re getting the Cardinals sandwiched in-between road games at the Vikings and the Rams.

Kingsbury and co. could sleepwalk into this one.

Second, the Kingsbury-Murray duo is 8-14 ATS as a favorite and 4-11 ATS as a home favorite. And overall from week 8 on, the Kingsbury-Murray duo is 10-16-2 ATS.

This game falls into the “Kliff Bar” Rules, which go as follows:

1. Bet Kingsbury as an underdog
2. Fade Kingsbury as a favorite
3. Bet Kingsbury in the first half of the season
4. Fade Kingsbury in the second half of the season

This is the perfect spot to fade the Cardinals, who will try to lose this game as hard as possible.

I’m close to taking the Seahawks on the moneyline, but will settle for Seattle with just under a field goal.

My pick: Seattle Seahawks +2 (-107) | Playable at number

Los Angeles Rams (+3, +138 ML) Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, -155)

This will be one of the best games of the entire 2022 NFL season, despite their relatively poor records this season.

The Buccaneers are at home trying to avenge their NFC Divisional loss after one of the great Tom Brady comebacks and one of the great Bruce Arians Blunders.

These teams are essentially identical to when they met last season.

Brady picked up Julio Jones as an extra weapon, but I doubt that makes much difference considering this stage in his career and his season so far.

I’m going to ride with the home team and the revenge factor here.

That’s the only angle I’m taking and while it may not be the best value pick, I genuinely think Brady and co. wins this game no matter what.

My pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML (-155) | Playable at number

Sunday Night Football

Tennessee Titans (+11, +430 ML) Vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-11, -500 ML)

I don’t trust the Chiefs in this spot.

Patrick Mahomes is just 5-12 as a favorite of five or more points over the last two seasons, and he is 6-8 ATS at home in that situation.

In the meanwhile, coach Mike Vrabel is 9-2 ATS as an underdog of five or more points.

This is a Titans team that downgraded in the offseason, but this is not a team depleted of talent.

I think this line is disrespectful to Vrabel, Ryan Tannehill, and the Titans. I’ll happily take the points in what I expect to be a hard-fought battle.

My pick: Tennessee Titans +11 (-110) | Playable at number

Monday Night Football

Baltimore Ravens (-3, -165 ML) Vs. New Orleans Saints (+3, +145)

The Ravens may be on the road, but they have the ultimate schedule advantage here.

They played the Bucs last Thursday, now play the Saints this Monday, and get a Bye week next week.

That’s a cookie-cutter couple of weeks for John Harbaugh’s squad.

That’s the only angle I’m taking here.

The Saints are a high-volatile team with Andy Dalton under center, but their floor has dropped without Sean Payton there to lead the way.

John Harbaugh should coach circles around the Saints, especially with all the time in the world to prepare.

I love the Ravens here.

My pick: Baltimore Ravens -3 (-107) | Playable at number

Check out next week’s NFL betting odds.