NFL Week 9 Odds

The halfway point of the 2023 NFL season is here, and although we’ve had eight weeks to learn about each team, injuries and other factors will always keep things from being concrete.

With quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, and Anthony Richardson being lost for the season, the Buffalo Bills losing their two best defensive players in cornerback Tre’Davious White and linebacker Matt Milano, and all of the other nagging injuries that place a team in neutral, betting on the NFL can be perplexing.

Let’s sift through the Week 9 slate, and find some potentially profitable wagers, and as always, with the best odds.

Thursday Night Football

Tennessee Titans (+3, +136 ML) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, -150 ML)

Total: Over 36 (-110 | bet365), Under 36.5 (-115 | FanDuel)

Pittsburgh’s quarterback Kenny Pickett is dealing with a rib injury, and may not suit up on a short week, so it looks like it will be Mitch Trubisky under center for the Black and Gold on Thursday.

With how Pickett and the Steelers’ offense has performed thus far, it may not matter too much who’s under center?

It will matter for Tennessee, as Will Levis threw for 238 yards and four touchdown passes in a 28-23 win over the Atlanta Falcons last week.

Will Levis to D-Hop for his first career TD! pic.twitter.com/8vIvCWhcGM

— Jonathan Reyes (@InsideherJay) October 29, 2023

Levis’ debut was the least Ryan Tannehill thing I have ever seen, and for the Titans, it was an entertaining change of pace.

Now that Pittsburgh safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is dealing with a leg injury, and the Steelers’ offense continues to struggle, I like Tennessee to cover here.

Pick: Titans (+3) | Best Odds: (-115) DraftKings

Sunday November 5th – 9:30 a.m. EST

Miami Dolphins (+2.5, +124 ML) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-2, -140 ML)

Total: Over 50.5 (-109 | BetRivers), Under 51 (-112 | DraftKings)

This early Sunday contest in Frankfurt could be an AFC Championship preview!

What a treat for the German people!

Dolphins’ quarterback Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL in passing yards (2,416) and passing touchdowns (18), and he’ll have to contend with Patrick Mahomes on the other sideline.

Also, Tyreek Hill.

Tyreek Hill is built different. #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/EmQ2rv23gI

— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) October 31, 2023

This should be the most entertaining game of the week.

The Chiefs’ defense has been one of the most productive units in the NFL this season, and after dropping their last contest to the awful Denver Broncos, I believe Kansas City is going to right the ship in Europe.

It may be difficult to slow down the connection between Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill, but it’s also a tall task keeping Mahomes and Travis Kelce out of the endzone.

I like the Chiefs to pick up a win in Germany.

Wunderbar!

Pick: Chiefs Moneyline | (-140) Caesars

Sunday November 5th – 1:00 p.m. EST

Minnesota Vikings (+4.5, +184 ML) vs. Atlanta Falcons (-4.5, -217 ML)

Total: Over 37 (-110 | BetRivers), Under 37.5 (-112 | DraftKings)

Both quarterbacks for these two clubs went down in Week 8, with Kirk Cousins rupturing his achilles and being done for the season, and Desmond Ridder leaving last week’s contest early with a head injury.

If Ridder can’t suit up this week, it will be Taylor Heinicke vs. a yet to be determined Vikings’ quarterback.

Instead of trying to find a winner, I’ll just back the under here.

I don’t see many points being scored in this one.

Pick: Under 37.5 | Best Odds: (-112) DraftKings

Seattle Seahawks (+5.5, +215 ML) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-5.5, -238 ML)

Total: Over 42.5 (-118 | FanDuel), Under 43 (-110 | BetRivers)

The Baltimore Ravens’ offense is beginning to round into form, and that makes for bad timing for this Seattle team that just downed the Cleveland Browns in Week 8.

The Ravens have scored 31 or more points in their last two games, and considering that the Seahawks allowed 20 points to the P.J. Walker-led Browns, it could be three in a row this week.

Baltimore has played just three home games this season, but have a combined score of 82-37, including a 38-6 drubbing over the Detroit Lions.

I’ll back the Ravens on the spread here.

Pick: Ravens (-5.5) | Best Odds: (-110) BetMGM

Arizona Cardinals (+8, +280 ML) vs. Cleveland Browns (-7.5, -350 ML)

Total: Over 37.5 (-108 | DraftKings), Under 37.5 (-109 | BetRivers)

As of right now, Kyler Murray has no timeline to return, and with Josh Dobbs underperforming, it appears Cardinals’ head coach Jonathan Gannon is going to roll with rookie quarterback Clayton Tune in Week 9.

Facing a Cleveland Browns defense that is tops in the league in total yards of offense allowed, this move could spell disaster for Arizona.

Myles Garrett with the sack on Geno Smith! pic.twitter.com/drSIWDqbAE

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) October 29, 2023

If Cleveland can get Deshaun Watson cleared and under center, even better for the Browns.

If Tune can’t produce a Will Levis-like showing in Week 9, Cleveland’s defense is going to carry a tune.

Pick: Browns (-7.5) | Best Odds: (-110) BetMGM

Los Angeles Rams (+3.5, +145 ML) vs. Green Bay Packers (-3, -155 ML)

Total: Over 39 (-110 | BetRivers), Under 40 (-110 | DraftKings)

Matthew Stafford damaged his thumb last week, and if Stafford doesn’t play, then it will be up to Brett Rypien to carry the Rams’ offense.

After getting decimated by the Cowboys in Week 8, Los Angeles can’t afford to take another big loss in Week 9.

Green Bay may not be able to manufacture a big win, with an offense as mediocre as theirs, but with Brett Rypien on the other side, they may not have to.

This game looks like a potentially low-scoring affair, so I’ll back the under instead of taking a chance on a possibly Stafford-less Rams team or anything Jordan Love touches.

Pick: Under 40 | Best Odds: (-110) DraftKings

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3, +130 ML) vs. Houston Texans (-2.5, -148 ML)\

Total: Over 40 (-110 | BetRivers), Under 40 (-110 | DraftKings)

The Houston Texans charitably gave the Carolina Panthers their first win of the season last week, but this week’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers does not feel like a bounce back opportunity.

The Bucs lost to the Buffalo Bills last week, 24-18, and Baker Mayfield did all he could, throwing for 237 yards and two touchdowns in the loss.

A little Baker Mayfield magic pic.twitter.com/zHzzAz0TNF

— Bussin' With The Boys (@BussinWTB) October 27, 2023

The Texans allowed Bryce Young to have an efficient outing last Sunday, and I foresee Mayfield continuing his quietly strong season against this Houston defense that has been vulnerable against the pass, allowing 314.3 passing yards per game over their last three contests.

Pick: Buccaneers Moneyline | Best Odds: (+130) Caesars

Washington Commanders (+3, +148 ML) vs. New England Patriots (-3, -159 ML)

Total: Over 39.5 (-115 | FanDuel), Under 40 (-108 | DraftKings)

The Commanders pushed the Philadelphia Eagles to the brink again last week, losing both of their games against the NFC East favorites by a combined 10 points.

While losing is never good, close losses can show a teams’ true grit.

New England is one of those squads that lack grit.

If not for a random victory over the Bills in Week 7, the Patriots would be a one-win team right now.

Everyone involved in New England feels like they are going through the motions right now, Bill Belichick included.

I’m backing the Commanders, and head coach Ron Rivera in this one.

Pick: Commanders Moneyline | Best Odds: (+148) Caesars

Chicago Bears (+7.5, +290 ML) vs. New Orleans Saints (-7, -325 ML)

Total: Over 41 (-110 | BetMGM), Under 41.5 (-110 | DraftKings)

Tyson Bagent has been an interesting story for the Bears, but at the end of the day, it’s still the Bears.

Chicago’s defense is the real story here, as they have allowed at least 20 points in six of their eight games.

Both of these teams are not very good against the spread, going a combined 4-10-2 ATS so far in 2023.

The under has occurred in six of the Saints’ eight games, and I think that’s the safest play here again.

Neither of these offenses have been overly spectacular, and New Orleans may only have to score a few points and play keep away this week at home.

Pick: Under 41.5 | Best Odds: (-110) DraftKings

Sunday November 5th – 4:05 p.m. EST

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, -148 ML) vs. Carolina Panthers (+3, +135 ML)

Total: Over 44 (-109 | BetRivers), Under 44.5 (-115 | FanDuel)

Despite averaging 28.3 points over their last three games, the Colts are on a three-game losing streak.

Minshew has played relatively well, moving his team downfield at a solid rate and averaging 282.3 passing yards in those three games.

Gardner Minshew (9) to Drew Ogletree (2)
Indianapolis Colts
33 yards
pic.twitter.com/IHg64YONGm

— NFL TD Videos (@NFLTDsVideos) October 29, 2023

Turnovers have become the problem for Indy, with a lack of consistency in turnover margin from game to game.

One minute, the Colts are a takeaway bully, the next, they are a giveaway machine.

In what looks like a get-right game for Indianapolis, I’ll fade the one-win Panthers.

Pick: Colts (-2.5) | Best Odds: (-115) DraftKings

Sunday November 5th – 4:25 p.m. EST

New York Giants (+2.5, +134 ML) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5, -148 ML)

Total: Over 37.5 (-112 | FanDuel), Under 38.5 (-110 | DraftKings)

This is one of those games that are borderline unwatchable.

New York and Las Vegas are two of the most exciting places on Earth, yet somehow, two of the most boring franchises in the NFL right now.

Daniel Jones has been cleared and should be back under center for the G-Men, but his presence doesn’t exactly move the needle in this inept offense.

Also, Jimmy Garoppolo has been as bland as can be for the Raiders, so this has the makings of a low-scoring game.

I’ll say the final score will be 10-6.

Shield your eyes.

Pick: Under 38.5 | Best Odds: (-110) DraftKings

Dallas Cowboys (+3, +140 ML) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-3, -160 ML)

Total: Over 46 (-109 | BetRivers), Under 46 (-110 | bet365)

This NFC East rivalry has produced plenty of high-scoring games, with the over hitting in seven of the last ten meetings.

Considering that the Eagles just put up 34 points last week against the Commanders and are now averaging 28 points per game this season, and the Cowboys just posted 43 points on the Rams and are now averaging 28.1 points per game, I like the over once again.

Dallas either wins by 20 points or loses by 20, so their inconsistent seesaw-like season will not be favorable against a very consistent Eagles squad.

This rivalry features a ton of star players, and the scoreboard will reflect that.

Pick: Over 46 | Best Odds: (-109) BetRivers

Sunday Night Football

Buffalo Bills (+3, +136 ML) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, -142 ML)

Total: Over 48.5 (-110 | BetRivers), Under 48.5 (-105 | FanDuel)

In his career with the Bills, Josh Allen has been very good in primetime games, going 13-4 in primetime.

Allen orchestrated another primetime win, defeating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football last week.

Burrow is just 3-3 in primetime games in his career, but he did pick up a close nationally televised win over the Rams in Week 3. It wasn’t a great win, but a win nonetheless.

Cincinnati picked up a strong 31-17 win over the San Francisco 49ers last week, but buying the Bengals as a favorite over Allen, Diggs, and the Bills is just not something I’m ready to commit to here.

The ball bounced the right way for Cincy last week, but I’m backing Allen in primetime.

Pick: Bills Moneyline | Best Odds: (+136) FanDuel

Monday Night Football

Los Angeles Chargers (-3, -152 ML) vs. New York Jets (+3, +138 ML)

Total: Over 41.5 (-105 | FanDuel), Under 41.5 (-110 | BetRivers)

The New York Jets squeezed past the Giants last week, 13-10, but they’ll need to put forth a better offensive showing to get past the Chargers on Monday Night.

Zach Wilson has done a respectable job as the Jets’ signal caller, and he should have a solid opportunity to find top-target Garrett Wilson this week, facing a LA defense that is allowing an NFL-worst 297.4 passing yards per game.

Gardner Minshew (9) to Drew Ogletree (2)
Indianapolis Colts
33 yards
pic.twitter.com/IHg64YONGm

— NFL TD Videos (@NFLTDsVideos) October 29, 2023

New York just needs to find a way into the endzone.

Last week’s win was an easy one for the Chargers, beating the Chicago Bears, 30-13, but flying cross-country to take on the Jets won’t be as simple.

And things are rarely simple for Los Angeles head coach Brandon Staley, as he continuously gets in his own way.

The smarter Robert Saleh and the Jets come out on top here.

Pick: Jets Moneyline | Best Odds: (+138) FanDuel