NFL Week 9 Parlay

Now at the midway point of the NFL season, teams are fighting not just for a playoff spot, but also fighting to stay healthy.

Week 8 saw plenty of players show up on injury reports, and that just muddies the waters for Week 9.

For this parlay, the method of construction remains the same, one underdog, one over, one under, and two spreads.

Let’s build a dependable parlay for this week.

This parlay will be manufactured on FanDuel.

Moneyline – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+126) at Houston Texans

The Houston Texans defense has been crumbling a bit, allowing 314 passing yards per game over their last three contests.

Although Baker Mayfield is not the epitome of gunslinging quarterback, he certainly has the weapons at his disposal to do some serious damage.

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin continue to be a valuable receiving duo, and running back Rachaad White has been a helpful receiving option on check-down passes.

Rachaad White: 13 missed tackles forced on receptions this season, t-1st among all RBs 👑 pic.twitter.com/MuSwVdrejk

— PFF TB Buccaneers (@PFF_Buccaneers) October 26, 2023

The Buccaneers’ defense continues to play solidly as well, allowing 20 or more points in just three of their seven games played, with all three games allowing 20+ points against above average offenses (Philadelphia, Detroit, Buffalo).

The Texans lost to the Carolina Panthers last week, giving the Panthers their first win of the season, and this home game against Tampa Bay should not be viewed as a bounce back for Houston.

This game won’t be easy for the Bucs either, but I feel more comfortable backing the veterans from Tampa Bay.

Pick: Buccaneers Moneyline

Spread – Cleveland Browns (-7.5 | -114) vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals will start Clayton Tune at quarterback this week.

For anyone wondering who Clayton Tune is, he’s a quarterback that was a fifth-round draft pick in the 2023 NFL Draft from the University of Houston.

Arizona selects Houston QB Clayton Tune 139th overall

🔴 92.9 PFF Grade since 2021 (3rd among QB's) pic.twitter.com/TJeJZNMScu

— PFF College (@PFF_College) April 29, 2023

Tune had a very nice 2022 season at Houston, throwing for 4,074 yards and 40 touchdown passes, but that was the NCAA. We’ll see how quickly his success can translate to the NFL.

In his first start, Tune will have to avoid the imposing presence of Cleveland Browns’ defensive end Myles Garrett.

Yikes.

There’s a chance Kyler Murray could play some in this game as well, but next week appears more likely.

The Browns’ defense is allowing the least total yards of offense on average in the NFL, surrendering just 260 yards per game.

The Cardinals’ offense is chock-full of injuries right now, and I don’t see an offense led by Clayton Tune and Emari Demercado putting up enough points to cover here.

Pick: Browns (-7.5)

Spread – Indianapolis Colts (-3 | -102) at Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers picked up their first win last week, but that could be a short lived experience for the Panthers.

The Indianapolis Colts’ defense has been awful the last few weeks, giving up 37 points to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 6, 39 points to the Browns in Week 7, and 38 points to the New Orleans Saints in Week 9.

Bryce Young and the Panthers probably won’t record a number in the high 30’s here, so I like the Colts to get away with a cover here.

Gardner Minshew continues to play solidly under center for Indy, and Jonathan Taylor is beginning to look like his old self, rushing for 75 or more yards in each of the last two games.

This was a DOT by Gardner Minshew frfr. pic.twitter.com/Hi60DSQ8aV

— CLew 🏈🏀⚾️🥊 (@droppedballspod) October 30, 2023

The Panthers gave up 42 points in back-to-back weeks prior to their 15-13 win over Houston in Week 8.

I don’t think the Colts will record 42 points, but they won’t have to to cover the three-point spread.

Pick: Colts (-3)

Over – Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles (o46 | -110)

The over has occurred in seven of the last ten meetings between these two NFC East rivals, and with all of the offensive talent on both sidelines, I think we hit the over in this one again.

The Dallas Cowboys average 28.1 points per game (2nd in the NFL), and the Philadelphia Eagles average 28 points per game (3rd in the NFL), so points are expected.

The Eagles’ defense has allowed 20 or more points in five of eight games, strangely allowing 30+ points in only two games against the Commanders.

Philly’s passing defense continues to be a question mark, sitting 26th in the NFL, allowing 267.1 passing yards per game.

Commanders’ QB Sam Howell just recorded 397 passing yards and four touchdowns against the Eagles last week, so Dallas’ QB Dak Prescott should do just fine on Sunday.

Prescott just tallied 304 yards and four touchdowns against the Rams last week, so he may be on a heater.

Dak Prescott: 93.2 PFF Grade in his last two games

Highest among ALL QBs 👀 pic.twitter.com/LYUJYaQlum

— PFF (@PFF) October 30, 2023

The only way this game goes under is if Philadelphia grinds down the clock too hard, as they lead the NFL in time of possession.

We need both offenses to score here, so Prescott and the ‘Boys will need to get enough time on the field to cover their end.

I think they will.

I’ll say the final score will be 37-31, Eagles.

Pick: Over 46

Under – Chicago Bears vs. New Orleans Saints (u41 | -110)

Parts of New Orleans are under sea level, so naturally, the under occurs often for the Saints.

The under is 6-2 this season for New Orleans, with the two overs both coming over the last two games.

The Saints’ defense has not been as effective in those last two games, allowing 31 points to the Jacksonville Jaguars and 27 points to the Indianapolis Colts, but they should do a better job of keeping points off the board against rookie QB Tyson Bagent and the Chicago Bears.

Both of these teams are averaging exactly 21.4 points per game, which is right around the middle of the pack in the NFL, but this game just has a feel of “do what’s necessary to win and nothing more”.

The Saints tend to play up to their competition, or down to their competition.

This week, they’ll play down to the Bears.

In their first four games, New Orleans went 2-2 with a combined score of 62-76, and in the last four games, they are 2-2 with a combined score of 109-78.

The Saints combined score over their last four games includes a 34-0 shutout over New England, and with that game removed, New Orleans combined score in their last four games is 75-78.

That’s a negative point differential with the Patriots shutout removed, showing that this New Orleans team is not likely to embarrass any opponent.

I’ll say the final score will be 23-10, Saints.

Pick: Under 41

NFL Week 9 Parlay – FanDuel	Odds
Tampa Bay (ML) vs. Houston	+126
Cleveland (-7.5) vs. Arizona	-114
Indianapolis (-3) vs. Carolina	-102
OVER 46 (DAL vs. PHI)	-110
UNDER 41 (CHI vs. NO)	-110
Parlay Odds	+2962

A $10 wager on this parlay would win $296.21!

How To Bet NFL Parlays

A parlay bet is a sports wager that combines several bets on one ticket alone.

Usually, you would go with moneyline bets but can use spreads, totals, and futures.

You can include props in many cases, and bettors can choose to link together just two sides, or up to 15 or more depending on the sportsbook.

Parlays are wholly customizable meaning bettors get to choose how big they want the odds to go.

How many sides will be included, and how difficult is it to make each leg of the parlay or do the same game parlays.

The way to establish consistency is to have just two or three sides and avoid chasing astronomical odds.

It’s fine to take your shot at a massive payout as well, but be sure to only risk money you’re prepared to lose.If you fancy regular bets, we got the NFL Week 9 Odds analysis worth checking out.