NFL Player Prop Bets Week 8

The Baltimore Ravens entered the 2023 season with a new offensive coordinator, bringing in former Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ OC Todd Monken, in an attempt to get more out of Lamar Jackson and the passing offense.

On Sunday against the Detroit Lions, the progress began to show.

Jackson completed 21 of 27 passes for 357 passing yards and three touchdowns in a 38-6 beatdown of Detroit.

Jackson’s passing yards props are typically set at a low number, as the yards produced by his arm are often dwindled by the field position he gains with his legs.

After last week’s monster 357-yard passing performance, Jackson’s passing yards prop against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 8 may become inflated, typically sitting around 215 yards, but currently set around 230 yards on most books.

According to BestOdds Edge, there is a slight edge to the under on Jackson’s passing yards prop this week.

The 357 passing yards from last week are a wildly noticeable outlier, and in this week’s matchup against this 1-6 Cardinals team, Jackson may not be asked to throw it nearly as often.

Monken has shown that he can alter the run-heavy Ravens’ offense, but for Week 8 in Arizona, the under on Jackson’s passing yards prop makes a lot of sense.

The best odds for the under on Jackson’s passing yards prop can be found at under 233.5 yards (-110) on bet365.

I don’t take the under on props too often, but this is a solid bet to wager.

Let’s explore more NFL player props for Week 9.

Tyson Bagent – QB, Chicago Bears

In his first NFL start, Tyson Bagent and the Chicago Bears hung 30 points on the Las Vegas Raiders and won by 18.

That’s impressive for an undrafted QB out of D-II Shepherd University in West Virginia.

First career touchdown pass for Tyson Bagent 🙌pic.twitter.com/8LERM7I60s

— CHGO Sports (@CHGO_Sports) October 22, 2023

One year Bagent is leading his team to victory over schools like Kutztown, Millersville, and Shippensburg, and the next year he’s defeating the Las Vegas Raiders.

Bagent played efficiently against Vegas, completing 21 of 29 passes for 162 yards and a touchdown, and now he’ll face the NFL’s worst passing defense after seven weeks, the Los Angeles Chargers.

Los Angeles allowed another big passing display last week, with Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs compiling 424 yards and four touchdown passes.

LA’s defense is now averaging a wildly high 310 passing yards per game, and although Bagent may be the polar opposite of Mahomes at this point in his career, he should still find some success.

Bagent and Shepherd University lost to the Colorado School of Mines last year, so anything can happen.

But, against the Chargers’ defense, with weapons such as D.J. Moore, Cole Kmet, and Darnell Mooney, I think he steps up once again on Sunday Night Football.

Pick: Bagent – OVER 193.5 Passing Yards

Best Odds: (-114) FanDuel

Isiah Pacheco – RB, Kansas City Chiefs

This week, the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Denver Broncos, and that is a promising matchup for Chiefs’ running back Isiah Pacheco.

Denver has allowed 1,005 rushing yards to opposing running backs in the first seven games.

That’s ridiculous.

For frame of reference, the Vikings have allowed the 16th-most rushing yards to running backs, with 527.

Kansas City just defeated the Broncos 19-8 only two short weeks ago, and in that game, Pacheco totaled 62 rushing yards on 16 carries.

Isiah Pacheco vs. the Broncos
16 CAR 62 YDS 6 REC 36 YDS
98 all purpose YDS #CHIEFSKINGDOM @isiah_pachecoRB pic.twitter.com/5B8gV9L8i1

— nahthatsTUFF (@nahthatstufff) October 13, 2023

The weather forecast for Denver is calling for snow, so I’d expect the Chief’s offensive focus to shift towards the ground game.

The Broncos’ rushing defense is atrocious, and Pacheco is averaging 59.9 rushing yards per game. I’d expect Pacheco to do better than average in this one.

Pick: Pacheco – OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards

Best Odds: (-110) bet365

Zay Flowers – WR, Baltimore Ravens

Flowers has made an immediate impact to the Ravens’ passing attack as a rookie, and he has frequently been around the same receiving yardage mark, giving him a solid floor.

Here’s a quick look at Flowers recent receiving yards props, courtesy of BestOdds Edge:

The floor is solid, and with the largest share of targets from quarterback Lamar Jackson, the potential ceiling is very high.

Flowers has a beatable matchup this week, most likely being shadowed by Arizona Cardinals cornerback Jalen Thompson in the slot.

The Cardinals have allowed the most receiving yards in the league to opposing wide receivers, and I like backing Flowers’ yards prop while it is still below 60 yards.

Pick: Flowers – OVER 55.5 Receiving Yards

Best Odds: (-110) bet365

Darren Waller – TE, New York Giants

In the New York Giants’ win over the Washington Commanders last week, Waller snagged seven passes for 98 yards and a touchdown.

DARREN WALLER TOUCHDOWN ON NATIONAL TIGHT ENDS DAY

pic.twitter.com/huoGUjfmH7

— evin (@KayvonOjulari) October 22, 2023

I think he finds the endzone again this week against the New York Jets.

The Jets have allowed five touchdowns to opposing tight ends in six games, and while Waller may not have a similar yards or receptions total from the week prior, he should continue to be the go-to target in the red zone.

The five touchdowns the Jets have allowed to tight ends:

• Week 2: Jake Ferguson (DAL) – Touchdown!
• Week 2: Luke Schoonmaker (DAL) – Touchdown!
• Week 3: Pharaoh Brown (NE) – Touchdown!
• Week 4: Noah Gray (KC) – Touchdown!
• Week 5: Adam Trautman (DEN) Touchdown!

Those are not the biggest names for tight ends, so if Daniel Bellinger steals one from Waller, that would be pretty upsetting.

Tyrod Taylor will be under center for the Giants once again, with Daniel Jones still nursing a neck injury, and Taylor’s rapport with Waller has been encouraging.

With Taylor as the starter, Waller has averaged 7.5 targets per game over the last two games; Waller averaged just over six targets from Daniel Jones.

More targets please, especially in the red zone.

Pick: Waller – Any Time Touchdown
Best Odds: (+320) FanDuel