NFL Week 6 Odds

Week 6 of the NFL season features some lopsided matchups.

On Thursday Night Football, the Kansas City Chiefs are favored by more than 10 points against the Denver Broncos.

KC is 10-5 against the spread in their last 15 meetings with Denver and the Broncos just lost by 10 points to Zach Wilson and the New York Jets.

The Carolina Panthers are +13.5-point underdogs against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.

With no Devon Achane for Miami, we’ll see how his absence plays for the explosive Dolphins’ offense.

Carolina has yet to cover a spread this season, currently at 0-4-1 ATS.

The Panthers were a +9.5-point underdog to the Lions last week and lost by 18 points.

Also, for Sunday Night Football, the New York Giants are +14.5-point underdogs against the Buffalo Bills.

Giants’ quarterback Tyrod Taylor could get the start against his old club.

Unfortunately, Taylor’s current club is 0-5 against the spread in 2023.

On to the best odds for Week 6 in the NFL!

Thursday Night Football

Denver Broncos (+10.5, +450 ML) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5, -535 ML)

The Denver Broncos are awful.

Head coach Sean Payton came in to clean up the self-proclaimed mess that Nathaniel Hackett left behind, and Payton has failed miserably.

Then the New York Jets, and Jets’ offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, come into Denver and beat Payton’s Broncos by 10 points.

Jets players and staffers, lining up to dap up Nathaniel Hackett for beating the Broncos and the head coach who trashed him this offseason pic.twitter.com/DquVsTUOqc

— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) October 8, 2023

It appears that Denver is tanking for a top draft pick.

I’m not going to go against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Pick: Chiefs (-10.5) | Best Odds: (-110) BetRivers

Sunday – October 15th – 9:30 a.m. EST

Baltimore Ravens (-4, -192 ML) vs. Tennessee Titans (+4.5, +170 ML)

We’re back in London once again in Week 6!

Some believe that travel got the best of the Buffalo Bills last week as they lost to a Jacksonville Jaguars team that was already in the UK.

Well, there should be no real travel disadvantage to the Ravens or Titans in this one.

Baltimore’s offense looked lackluster against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, and could suffer from jet lag in this one.

Tennessee has allowed just 94.6 rushing yards per game (9th in the NFL), and facing this Ravens’ offense that has some glaring issues in the passing game could bode well for the Titans.

Lamar Jackson 🎯 Joey Porter Jr.

INTERCEPTIONpic.twitter.com/pIIl3rONcg

— Repordino (@RepordinoTR) October 8, 2023

If Lamar Jackson and his receivers can’t get on the same page, and Tennessee’s defense halts Baltimore’s ground game, the Titans can steal this game across the pond.

Pick: Titans Moneyline | Best Odds: (+170) DraftKings

Sunday, October 15th – 1 p.m. EST

Washington Commanders (+2.5, +124 ML) vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, -132 ML)

Sam Howell totaled 388 passing yards against the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football last week, but those big yardage totals may be hard to come by in Week 6 against the Atlanta Falcons.

Atlanta cooled off the red-hot C.J. Stroud, allowing the Texans’ rookie QB to throw for 249 yards.

After getting blistered by Justin Fields last week (282 passing yards and four touchdown passes), Washington’s defense will need to rebound against Falcons’ quarterback Desmond Ridder this week.

Ridder threw for 329 yards against Houston, so I’m not sure the rebound for the Commanders’ D will come as quick as they would like.

Desmond Ridder to Bijan Robinson touchdown!!!

Falcons lead the Texans 15-12 with 12 minutes left
pic.twitter.com/do2koHu4UN

— Sideline Daily (@sideline_daily) October 8, 2023

Also, Bijan Robinson is still averaging 5.4 yards per carry and should have a nice game against Washington’s 24th-ranked rushing defense (133.6 rushing yards per game).

Pick: Falcons Moneyline | Best Odds: (-132) BetRivers

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, -135 ML) vs. Chicago Bears (+2.5, +128 ML)

As I previously mentioned, Justin Fields had a monster game last week, and he could do it again in Week 6.

Minnesota has the NFL’s 22nd-ranked passing defense that has been dented twice in the last three weeks, allowing Justin Herbert to throw for 405 yards and three touchdowns in Week 3 and Mahomes to throw for 281 yards and two touchdowns last week.

The bad news for the Bears is that their defense is not very good.

Chicago ranks 31st in the NFL in passing defense, allowing 286 passing yards per game, and even without Justin Jefferson on the field, Kirk Cousins will slice up the porous Bears’ defensive secondary.

This could be a surprising throwdown between Cousins and Fields, but Cousins should come out on top.

Should.

Pick: Vikings (-2.5) | Best Odds: (-110) DraftKings

Seattle Seahawks (+3, +142 ML) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-3, -148 ML)

Joe Burrow looked like Joe Burrow last week against the Arizona Cardinals, throwing for 317 yards and three touchdowns.

The connection between Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase gave LSU Tiger fans nostalgic flashbacks to the 2020 College Football Championship game.

A throwback to Joe Burrow Ja’Marr Chase in the national championship game vs Clemson#LSU #SEC #collegefootball pic.twitter.com/G2KGGYB3ZK

— WSN (@WagonSports1) June 4, 2023

Looking ahead, Burrow and Chase could put on another big performance in Week 6 against the Seattle Seahawks.

The Seahawks’ defense has struggled against opposing QBs this season, even allowing Andy Dalton, former Cincy QB and current Carolina backup, to throw for 361 yards in Week 3.

It’s another throwdown, and in this one, I’ll back the home favorite in Cincinnati.

Pick: Bengals Moneyline | Best Odds: (-148) FanDuel

San Francisco 49ers (-5, -218 ML) vs. Cleveland Browns (+5.5, +200 ML)

The weather forecast is calling for rain and Deshaun Watson has still not been cleared to play.

If Dorian Thompson-Robinson is under center for Cleveland in a game that could be wet and sloppy, the Browns are doomed.

San Francisco destroyed the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football last week, and if Cleveland doesn’t start their No. 1 signal caller, they won’t stand a chance in Week 6.

While the Browns’ defense has been a solid unit, they can only do so much.

Cleveland has already lost star running back Nick Chubb, if they lose Watson too, it’ll be time to start thinking about 2024.

Or at least Week 7.

I can’t fade the 49ers now. They are a juggernaut.

Pick: 49ers (-5) | Best Odds: (-108) DraftKings

New Orleans Saints (-1, -115 ML) Vs. Houston Texans (+1.5, +106 ML)

The Saints are coming off an impressive 34-0 shutout over the New England Patriots.

That zero on the scoreboard will be hard to replicate against C.J. Stroud and the Texans this week.

I backed the underdog Texans last week and they fell short against Atlanta, allowing a walk-off field goal to Young-hoe Koo in the waning seconds of the game.

I’m going back to the well in Houston in Week 6.

Houston’s defense has held strong, and continues to look stronger as the season rolls on.

The Texans defense generated 14 pressures and 3 sacks with four-or-fewer pass rushers in Week 4, the unit's 4th-highest rate pressure rate on non-blitzes in a game since 2018 (48.3%).

🔹 Texans (2023): 44.4% pressure rate (3rd in NFL)#PITvsHOU | #WeAreTexans pic.twitter.com/WYtqQ7TEHi

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 2, 2023

The Texans are allowing just 20 points per game this season and have averaged just 14.7 points allowed over their last three games (Jaguars, Steelers, Falcons).

I like this Houston defense against Derek Carr and New Orleans’ up-and-down offense.

Pick: Texans Moneyline | Best Odds: (+106) FanDuel

Indianapolis Colts (+4.5, +176 ML) Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5, -205 ML)

With Indy’s rookie QB Anthony Richardson out in Week 6, it’s time for Minshew Mania once again!

The Colts are 3-2 this season, and when Gardner Minshew takes more than 67% of offensive snaps, Indianapolis is 3-0!

That’s hard to ignore.

Minshew gives the Colts the best chance to win right now, and with 100% of snaps expected this week, I think he does it again.

The Jaguars picked up a nice win against the Bills, but now they have to fly home to Jacksonville.

Much like the Bills, we’ll see if the travel is an excuse for poor play for the Jags in this AFC South matchup.

Pick: Colts Moneyline | Best Odds: (+176) FanDuel

Carolina Panthers (+13.5, +650 ML) vs. Miami Dolphins (-13.5, -800 ML)

If the Miami Dolphins lose this game, I will eat my hat.

The Panthers are too much of a work in progress to even compete with this Miami offense.

Miami is running an offense that is equivalent to the 2000 Rams “Greatest Show on Turf”.

I’m not expecting this game to be much of a contest.

I’ll take the Dolphins on the spread now before the number probably moves to 14 points.

Pick: Dolphins (-13.5) | Best Odds: (-108) DraftKings

Sunday, October 15th – 4:05 p.m. EST

New England Patriots (+3.5, +150 ML) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-3, -155 ML)

How bad can Bill Belichick’s Patriots get?

I know he won’t want to lose to former protege Josh McDaniels on the opposing sideline, but until Mac Jones and this New England offense show signs of life, I just can’t back them.

The Raiders picked up a solid, albeit boring, victory over the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night, and this could be another boring victory for the Silver and Black.

I don’t know how an NFL team in Las Vegas can be so boring, but here we are.

The Raiders’ passing defense has played surprisingly well, and with Mac Jones on the other side, they should do well once again.

One of the most clutch plays the Raiders defense have made in the past 5 years. pic.twitter.com/66kTo62uQa

— Shane (@ShanyeWest15) October 10, 2023

This is one of those games that are only interesting if you’ve got action on it.

I’m putting my action on Las Vegas.

Pick: Raiders Moneyline | Best Odds: (-155) DraftKings

Sunday, October 15th – 4:25 p.m. EST

Detroit Lions (-3, -160 ML) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3, +150 ML)

Baker Mayfield has played admirably under center for the Bucs, but he will have a tall task of besting Jared Goff in a Week 6 duel.

The Lions defensive secondary just allowed Bryce Young of the Panthers to throw for 247 yards and three touchdowns last week; although they recorded two picks as well, the output for the rookie QB is concerning for this Detroit defense.

Mayfield could be in line for a solid opportunity this week.

Lions’ star wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is still questionable with an abdomen injury, and if he’s limited, or off the field altogether, I like the Buccaneers chances of hanging around in this one.

Pick: Buccaneers (+3) | Best Odds: (+100) BetRivers

Arizona Cardinals (+6.5, +240 ML) vs. Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, –270 ML)

The high-flying Josh Dobbs came back down to earth last Sunday, turning the ball over three times (2 INTs, 1 Fumble Lost) in a 34-20 loss to the Bengals.

After seeing the Cardinals’ defense get torched by Burrow and Chase, I can only imagine what Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua have in-store for this week.

ELITE route running.

📺 @NFLonFOX | 🔟 @CooperKupp pic.twitter.com/iKyDqUpK5Y

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) October 8, 2023

Stafford and the Rams were held to a measly time of possession by the Philadelphia Eagles last week, with their offense only on the field for just over 22 minutes.

Arizona has allowed opponents to hold the ball for an average of 32:32 per game, and with more time on the field, the Rams are going to light up the scoreboard on their path back to .500.

Pick: Rams (-6.5) | Best Odds: (-105) DraftKings

Philadelphia Eagles (-7, -278 ML) vs. New York Jets (+7, +250 ML)

The Eagles really do keep their offense on the field for a long time, averaging a time of possession of 34:42 (2nd in the NFL, CLE is 1st).

The clock grinding game of this Philly offense will keep Breece Hall and Zach Wilson off the field, and tire out the Jets defense in the process.

Also spelling doom for New York, their rushing defense is relinquishing huge yardage totals to opponents.

Even though they beat Denver last week, the Jets’ defense still allowed 139 yards on just 22 carries.

That’s 6.3 yards per carry.

New York allowed Isaiah Pacheco of the Chiefs to run for 115 yards, and Ezekiel Elliott and Rhamondre Stevenson of the Patriots to run for a combined 139 yards.

The Jets’ rushing defense has been alarmingly ineffective, and Jalen Hurts and D’Andre Swift will pick up plenty of first downs in Week 6.

Third down and long, Jalen Hurts uses his legs to move the sticks.

Nice run. pic.twitter.com/VyNBzjJWZO

— DIE-HARD 🦅 Fans (@Eaglesfans9) October 8, 2023

Pick: Eagles (-7) | Best Odds: (-108) DraftKings

Sunday Night Football

New York Giants (+14, +700 ML) vs. Buffalo Bills (-14, -850 ML)

The New York Giants may be the only team in the NFL to lose a $40 Million quarterback and somehow play better.

All joking aside, this feeble New York offense is a joke.

The Giants scored 16 points against the Dolphins last week, but their only touchdown was a 102-yard pick-six by safety Jason Pinnock against Tua Tagovailoa.

New York scored four offensive touchdowns in their only win against the Arizona Cardinals, but when you remove that game, the Giants have scored just one offensive touchdown in their other four games, all losses.

One offensive touchdown scored in all four losses!

That’s amazing.

Which team are you taking? The Buffalo Bills, or the team that hasn’t scored an offensive touchdown since the third quarter of Week 3?

Pick: Bills (-14) | Best Odds: (-109) BetRivers

Monday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys (-2, -126 ML) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5, +110 ML)

In Week 5, Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert damaged the middle finger on his non-throwing hand.

Herbert is expected to play this week.

Last week, Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott damaged his ego, throwing for three interceptions in a 32-point loss to the 49ers.

Prescott is expected to play better this week.

Having backup quarterback Cooper Rush put down the clipboard and grab his helmet is never a good sign for Dallas fans.

The Cowboys had a soft start to their schedule (Giants, Jets, Cardinals, Patriots), before ultimately getting embarrassed by the 49ers in primetime.

I don’t think that Dallas is nearly as good as they were projected to be.

Last week’s edition of the Cowboys may be the realest version we’ve seen.

Pick: Chargers Moneyline | Best Odds: (+110) BetMGM