Odds For NFL Week 6

Sportsbooks have posted NFL Week 6 lines to view and bet on, and I’m already eyeing my favorite spots.

This week’s slate includes a monster Monday Night Football game between two AFC West opponents and a 2021 AFC Divisional rematch.

Which teams should win their Week 6 matchups and which teams will cover their Week 6 spreads?

Read on for betting odds, picks, and predictions for Week 6 of the NFL season.

Thursday Night Football

Washington Commanders (+1.5, +100 ML) Vs. Chicago Bears (PK, -107 ML)

This feels like a sandwich spot for Washington.

They took on Tennessee at home last week and are hosting the Packers next Sunday, but they have to play this pesky Chicago team in Soldier Field on a Thursday Night.

The Commanders have Carson Wentz under center, anyways. While that’s not as bad as Justin Fields, it’s not much better.

And for how bad the Bears are on defense, there isn’t a worse secondary in football than the one in D.C.

I’ll take the Bears on the moneyline.

The sportsbooks have varied opinions about this game.

BetMGM have the Bears as 1.5 point favorites, whereas Caesars has this game as a pick ‘em. Make sure to shop those lines and seek out the best odds!

My pick: Chicago Bears ML (-107) | Playable at number

Game Kickoff – 1 p.m. EST

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5, -330 ML) Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+8, +300 ML)

You can’t bet against Mike Tomlin when he’s in this position.

Catching north of five points at home against an elite team means Tomlin will rally his team and play up to the competition.

Tomlin is the best underdog coach of all time, going a remarkable 45-23-2 ATS as an underdog in his career.

Moreover, Tomlin is 14-3-2 ATS as a home underdog and 5-1 ATS catching over a field goal at home.

It’s tough to bet against Tom Brady, but Tomlin will play defense and figure out how to run the ball.

That’ll be enough to keep it within the number.

The Steelers may have failed dismally last week to keep pace with the Bills. The Bucs will not have it so easy on the road.

My pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +8 (-110) | Playable at number

Cincinnati Bengals (-1, -112) Vs. New Orleans Saints (+1.5, +108 ML)

While it’s never too wise betting on road favorites, why fade the Bengals?

They’re a competent team with a more-than-competent quarterback against a rookie head coach.

Plus, the Saints are looking ahead to a short-week Thursday Night game in Arizona.

Dennis Allen has other things on his mind than this game.

I’ll be Cinci on the ML.

My pick: Cincinnati Bengals ML (-112) | Playable at number

New York Jets (+7.5, +280 ML) Vs. Green Bay Packers (-7.5, -325 ML)

This stretch of schedule is a cakewalk for Aaron Rodgers and co.

After a Sunday afternoon game in Tampa, the Pack just had the Patriots and Giants at home, now get the Jets at home, and will travel to Washington and Detroit in the coming weeks.

But what does that mean?

I’m not entirely sure. Could the Packers be sleepwalking at the moment?

Or are they building momentum and ready to blow teams out?

Rodgers has never beaten the Jets by double-digits in his career but hasn’t played them since 2018 in the Meadowlands (44-38 final score).

I’m going to pass on this one.

If the line was a little lower, I’d probably look toward Green Bay.

My pick: Pass

New England Patriots (+3, +135 ML) vs Cleveland Browns (-2.5, -145 ML)

There are reasons to like the Browns in this spot.

They will be able to run the ball, which is the best way to beat Bill Belichick – by controlling the time of possession.

Also, I can see the Browns overwhelming Mac Jones and the Patriots skill weapons a bit. 

But a few things are working against the Browns.

First, Jacoby Brissett is Bill Belichick’s old quarterback.

Belichick should know how to handle him, as he did something similar with Tom Brady last season.

Second, this is the time of the year when the Patriots get hot. They use September as an extension of the pre-season and then put it all together.

They won eight of nine in-between Weeks 5 and 13 last season.

Third, one of those wins came against the Browns.

The Patriots didn’t just beat Cleveland, however, they destroyed Cleveland, winning 30-7 and handing the Browns their worst DVOA performance of 2021.

I’ll take the Patriots, especially as underdogs.

My pick: New England Patriots +3 (-110) | Playable to PK (-110)

Minnesota Vikings (-3, -150 ML) Vs. Miami Dolphins (+3, +135 ML)

This line has swung six points since when I first identified taking the Vikings as three-point ‘dogs. Now they are three-point favorites.

The Vikings have such a high upside as an offense, and I think they provide less variability than the Dolphins do.

Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle could go off on any given day, but they could also falter, stutter and disappoint.

Their Week 5 loss to the Jets is a case in point.

I feel good about Minnesota’s secondary, and I think that will be the difference. Minnesota keeps their good early season momentum going and wins outright in Miami.

My pick: Minnesota Vikings ML (-150) | Playable at number

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, -245 ML) Vs. Atlanta Falcons (+6.5, +220 ML)

I like the spot for the Falcons here.

This is the second-straight road game for San Francisco and the team should be looking ahead to a big home matchup with Kansas City next week.

Talk about a sleeper spot.

In the meanwhile, the Falcons are coming off a tough road game in Tampa Bay (where they still haven’t beaten Tom Brady) and get a road game against the Bengals next week.

The Falcons need to scrap in this one.

Expect Atlanta to keep it within a touchdown in this one. Who knows, maybe they could even cause an upset on the moneyline?

My pick: Atlanta Falcons +6.5 (-110) | Playable at number

Baltimore Ravens (-5, -225 ML) Vs. New York Giants (+6, +205 ML)

I love the Giants here, especially after how they performed against the Packers in London on Sunday.

First, this is a really sharp line. Getting over a field goal at home is always a good spot, and the Ravens aren’t the best team to take advantage of that given John Harbaugh is just 73-75 ATS as a favorite.

The Giants made significant improvements in the draft and in the offseason, and they just need Daniel Jones to play decent as long as the offensive line gets a good push for Saquon Barkley.

I’ll take the Giants but wouldn’t play them at +3 or worse.

My pick: New York Giants +6 (-110) | Playable at number

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2, +110 ML) Vs. Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, -120 ML)

The Colts have a tough time beating the Jaguars in Jacksonville, but how do they fare back in Indianapolis?

It doesn’t matter which stadium we’re in, the Colts can not cover against the Jags.

The Colts are 13-23-2 ATS vs the Colts since 2004, and that includes a 6-12-1 ATS mark at home in Indianapolis.

It’s a different quarterback playing in Indy now, but I’m still ready to take the Jags when they’re catching points against the Colts.

My pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +2 (-110) | Playable at number

Game Kickoff – 4 p.m. EST

Carolina Panthers (+9.5, +350 ML) Vs. Los Angeles Rams (-9.5, -380 ML)

Can the Panthers keep up here?

I don’t think so. We’re getting to the dog days of the season and Carolina still has a mess of a roster.

Plus, Matt Rhule is just 2-4 ATS when he’s catching more than a touchdown.

The Panthers are built to be blown out, and the Rams are built to blow out bad teams. I expect that happen here.

My pick: Los Angeles Rams -9.5 (-110) | Playable at number

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, -135 ML) Vs. Seattle Seahawks (+2.5, +124 ML)

I’ll happily fade Kliff Kingsbury laying points on the road. Kingsbury is just 8-14 ATS as a favorite in his career and the Cardinals begin to fade more and more as the season goes on.

The Seahawks are a bad football team.

But they will commit to running the ball, and that generally provides teams catching points with some upside.

I’ll be the Seahawks as gross home underdogs.

My pick: Seattle Seahawks +2.5 (-110) | Playable at number

Buffalo Bills (-1.5, -122 ML) Vs. Kansas City Chiefs (+2, +110 ML)

America’s Game of the Week, if not the season so far, is a massive contest.

It’s the rematch of last season’s famed AFC Divisional contest in which Patrick Mahomes willed his team to a victory in the unlikeliest of fashions.

There are two angles to consider here.

First is the revenge angle. The Bills will want to go all-out in search of a revenge victory, especially in Arrowhead.

The second is the underdog angle. Specifically that Mahomes has never lost as an underdog and – more impressively – has never been a home underdog.

I’m leaning toward the situational spot. The Chiefs just played a Divisional Monday Night Football game and are looking forward to playing in San Francisco next week.

The Bills just crushed Pittsburgh at home and have their Bye next week.

A much better spot for the Bills, and I’ll take them on the ML instead of laying any points against Mahomes.

Most of the sportsbooks are around -130.

FanDuel is stand out best odds on the moneyline at -122.

My pick: Buffalo Bills ML (-122) | Playable at number

Sunday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys (+5.5, +205 ML) Vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5, -225 ML)

This is my favorite matchup of the week is SNF.

The up-and-coming, unbeaten Eagles are against the defending NFC East champs, who are coping just fine without Dak.

I like Philly. The Eagles have a good offensive line going up against a mediocre Dallas front seven that got lucky in 2021 due to turnover luck.

The Eagles can run the ball and keep it out of Cooper Rush’s hands.

I’ll take the Eagles in this home divisional matchup.

Vegas has varying views on this game.

BetMGM has Philadephia at -250, whereas DraftKings have the best odds on the moneyline for them at -225.

My pick: Philadelphia Eagles ML (-225) | Playable at number

Monday Night Football

Denver Broncos (+6.5, +220 ML) Vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-6, -245 ML)

This is an awesome game. Every game in the AFC West is going to be awesome, to be fair.

Denver has had a long time to prepare for this one.

The Broncos played on Thursday Night Football last week, meaning they got 10 days instead of the normal six to prepare for a huge road divisional matchup.

That’s the handicap. I’d always rather bet on road divisional underdogs as well, and every game in this division is going to be close.

I’ll take the Broncos with the points.

My pick: Denver Broncos +6.5 (-110) | Playable at number

Check out next week’s NFL betting odds.