NFL Week 5 Odds

After Week 4, new things have come to light.

The New York Jets kept the game competitive on Sunday Night Football against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Maybe Zach Wilson isn’t the Jets’ biggest problem?

It’s possible to slow down the Miami Dolphins’ offense. Not easy, just possible.

The Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears could possibly pick up a new draft pick in 2024 before they pick up their first win in 2023.

Bouncing back with a three touchdown performance, maybe Baker Mayfield can be a franchise QB in Tampa Bay?

After the 38-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, Bill Belichick’s Patriots are done and dusted in the AFC East.

With this new informations, let’s do some digging and find the best odds for this Week 5 slate.

Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders – Thursday 5th October 2023 (Thursday Night Football)

The Chicago Bears held a 28-7 lead over the Denver Broncos in the third quarter in last week’s contest, and yet, somehow lost, 31-28.

Things have gone terribly wrong in Chicago and they’re not getting better any time soon.

Justin Fields’ solid showing against a wildly bad offense went to waste; Fields threw for 335 yards and four touchdowns.

While the on-field product for the Bears continues to disappoint, the opposite can be said for the Washington Commanders.

The Commanders took the defending NFC Champions into overtime in Week 4, losing 34-31.

Sam Howell proved that he can be the quarterback of the future to his club’s new owners, efficiently throwing for 290 yards and a touchdown and zero turnovers.

Things are going in opposite directions for Chicago and Washington.

Pick: Commanders (-6.5)

Best Odds: (-110) FanDuel

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills – Sunday 8th October 2023 (London)

The Jaguars picked up a bounce-back win in London in Week 4, and they will look to continue their success across the pond in Week 5.

Jacksonville’s defense showed up in a big way in their win against the Falcons.

Atlanta punted five times, had interceptions on back-to-back drives in the second quarter, and was turned over on downs AND lost a fumble in the fourth quarter.

This game won’t be as easy, facing Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and the Buffalo Bills.

The Bills posted 48 points on the Dolphins last week, and slowed Miami’s offense to just a 20 point output.

If Buffalo can frustrate Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill, what’s going to happen with Trevor Lawrence?

Pick: Bills (-5.5)

Best Odds: (-108) FanDuel

Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons – Sunday 8th October 2023

The most impressive rookies thus far go head-to-head in Week 5.

C.J. Stroud, rookie QB for the Texans, has arguably been the most impressive quarterback in the NFL.

C.J. Stroud is only the 6th player in NFL history to average 300 pass YDs and have 0 INTs through the first 4 games in a season 🤯

Elite company 🔥 pic.twitter.com/dYbVSk3rNW

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 2, 2023

As long as Stroud keeps doing what he’s doing, it’s hard not to back Houston here.

I don’t believe Falcons’ quarterback Desmond Ridder can keep up.

The only way Atlanta can hang around is if rookie running back Bijan Robinson can produce another strong performance.

Under head coach and former linebacker DeMeco Ryans, the Texans’ defensive unit is tightening up.

Houston has allowed just 23 points in their last two games, combined.

No guarantees that Robinson will find open grass here.

Pick: Houston Moneyline

Best Odds: (+105) Caesars

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions – Sunday 8th October 2023

The Carolina Panthers remain winless and the Detroit Lions remain one of the favorites to win the NFC.

Clearly, the Panthers have been awful. This chart helps illustrate that point.

You can see the Panthers’ winning margin is zero, which is exactly what winless teams get.

Carolina’s losing margin of -8.75 has me believing that Detroit can cover easily at -9 on the spread.

Thanks to BestOdds Edge, I’m not going to overthink this one.

As long as quarterback Bryce Young continues to underwhelm for this Panthers squad, it’s tough to find a win on their 2023 schedule.

If not for an overtime loss to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2, the Lions would be undefeated.

Pick: Lions (-9)

Best Odds: (-110) BetRivers

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts – Sunday 8th October 2023

The Tennessee Titans picked up a surprisingly strong 27-3 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals last week.

The Titans got back to doing what they do best: running the football.

Derrick Henry had a vintage game for Tennessee, carrying the ball 22 times for 122 yards and a touchdown, and even threw a two-yard touchdown pass.

On the other side, the Colts found themselves in overtime for the second consecutive game in Week 4, but this time as losers.

Rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson completed just 11 of 25 passes in the contest, but managed to throw for two touchdown passes. He picked up another 56 yards and a touchdown on the ground as well.

The Titans appear to be getting their feet underneath them.

In this battle of AFC South foes, I have to back the veteran experience of Tennessee.

Pick: Tennessee Moneyline

Best Odds: (+102) FanDuel

New York Giants at Miami Dolphins – Sunday 8th October 2023

The Giants are really bad.

In their three losses, New York has been outscored 94-15. In their one victory, a narrow 31-28 win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2, the Giants were down 28-7 in the third quarter.

Here’s a look at how this poor New York defense stacks up against Miami’s offense:

According to this offense vs. defense matchup, the Dolphins will eviscerate the Giants.

Miami dropped their first game of the season to the Bills last week, 48-20.

It was a respectable loss.

‘Respectable loss’ will not be used to describe what happens to New York on Sunday.

I’m backing Tua, Tyreek and the Dolphins in a get-right game.

Pick: Dolphins (-10.5)

Best Odds: (-110) DraftKings

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots – Sunday 8th October 2023

New England Patriots’ head coach Bill Belichick is no longer on the throne.

Belichick’s dynasty days with New England appear to be ancient history.

With the product he’s rolling out on the field each week, Belichick just looks like a defeated man in a sleeveless hoodie, trudging up and down the sidelines.

Certainly a humbling experience.

Things haven’t been rosy for the New Orleans Saints either.

The Saints won their first two games by a combined four points over Carolina and Tennessee, not exactly powerhouse opponents there.

Then followed those results with back-to-back losses, taking an especially hard loss to the NFC South division rival Tampa Bay at home, losing 26-9 last week.

As long as New Orleans’ quarterback under center, whether it be Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, or even Taysom Hill, continues to miss putting the ball in the hands of their talented receiving corps, they’ll continue to fail at putting points on the board.

I don’t like these offenses, but I don’t hate these defenses.

I’ll take a stab at the under.

Pick: Under 40.5

Best Odds: (-110) bet365

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers – Sunday 8th October 2023

Baltimore recorded a solid 28 points against the Cleveland Browns last week when Cleveland entered the game with the best defense in the NFL.

Pittsburgh’s defense just allowed rookie C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans to score 30 points last Sunday.

I’d expect Lamar Jackson and this Ravens offense to put a healthy total on the scoreboard.

After Steelers’ quarterback Kenny Pickett went down with an injury in Week 4, I don’t believe I can back this Pittsburgh team in Week 5 with Mitch Trubisky under center.

Pick: Ravens (-4.5)

Best Odds: (-108) BetRivers

Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals – Sunday 8th October 2023

The Bengals and Cardinals would appear to be an easy choice on paper a few weeks ago, but do we even know anymore?

After getting paid handsomely in the offseason, Bengals QB Joe Burrow seems to be suffering from what I refer to as “Fat Wallet Syndrome”.

Get paid, then give up.

Here are the stats for both Cincy and Arizona’s starting quarterbacks through Week 4:

• Joe Burrow (CIN) – 87/151 (57.6%), 728 Yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
• Josh Dobbs (ARI) – 87/123 (70.7%), 814 Yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs

I’m actually going to back the team that has a quarterback that’s playing for a new contract.

Pick: Arizona Moneyline

Best Odds: (+145) PointsBet

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams – Sunday 8th October 2023

This Week 5 matchup will feature two teams that picked up overtime victories in Week 4.

Will we see overtime between these two teams this week?

Philly’s defense was shredded by the Sam Howell-Terry McLaurin combo last week, so we should see plenty of the Matt Stafford-Puka Nacua hook up in Week 5.

Rams’ receiver Cooper Kupp could make his return as well, so the passing attack for Los Angeles could get a boost.

With defensive tackle Aaron Donald chasing Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts around, and a potential return of Kupp, I like the Rams chances of stealing a home victory against the defending NFC Champs.

Pick: Los Angeles Moneyline

Best Odds: (+185) PointsBet

New York Jets at Denver Broncos – Sunday 8th October 2023

How about Zach Wilson last week?

#Jets QB Zach Wilson is the ONLY opposing QB to have:

🏈 More completions
🏈 More passing yards
🏈 More TD passes
🏈 Fewer INTs

Than Patrick Mahomes in college AND pro (127 starts)

😳😳

(Via @OptaSTATS) pic.twitter.com/M35PxabX0n

— uSTADIUM App (@uSTADIUM) October 2, 2023

Wilson has a chance to record back-to-back impressive outings when he gets to face a Broncos’ defense that allowed Justin Fields eclipse 300 passing yards and four touchdowns in Week 4.

Denver had their best opportunity to pick up their first win of the season last week, and capitalized on it, completing a 21-point comeback in the second half against the Bears.

That’s not happening this week.

Zach Wilson can do enough work against this Broncos’ defense to secure a win.

Pick: New York Moneyline

Best Odds: (+110) DraftKings

Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings – Sunday 8th October 2023

Mahomes was bested by Zach Wilson last week, so I’d assume he’s looking to torch this Minnesota defense in Week 5.

The Vikings’ passing defense has been wildly bad. Although they have not allowed gargantuan passing yards totals every week, except for Justin Herbert’s 405 yards in Week 3, they have allowed a lot of pass completions.

There’s a good chance that Kansas City may only punt one time in this game.

It’s going to be a never-ending flow of first downs for this Chiefs offense.

Wilson and the Jets managed to record 20 points against KC’s defense last week. I have enough faith in Kirk Cousins and Minnesota’s offense to post a similar number at home.

The sad thing is, the Chiefs will probably score 40.

Pick: Over 53

Best Odds: (-108) DraftKings

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers – Sunday 8th October 2023 (Sunday Night Football)

Dallas absolutely manhandled the New England Patriots last week, 38-3.

It won’t be easy work for the Cowboys in Week 5 against the 49ers.

The most beatable part of this San Francisco team is their passing defense, as evidenced by Josh Dobbs’ 265 yards and two touchdown passes last week, so Dak Prescott will need to put on a nearly flawless performance this week to take down the NFC favorites.

The 49ers have looked great, but you could argue that they have had a soft schedule to start the season.

They are 4-0, but San Fran beat the underwhelming Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1, survived a close win over the LA Rams in Week 2, stomped the New York Giants in Week 3, and beat the Cardinals in Week 4.

This could be the first true test of the NFC-favorite 49ers.

Pick: Cowboys (+4)

Best Odds: (-110) Caesars

Green Bay Packers at Las Vegas Raiders – Monday 9th October 2023 (Monday Night Football)

After chucking the ball deep late in games, quarterback Jordan Love failed to keep his Packers in the game last week against the Detroit Lions.

This week, Love may not have to sling Green Bay back into the win column. Facing a Raiders’ defense that struggles to stop opposing rushers, this looks like a potentially strong game for Packers’ running back Aaron Jones.

Jones is looking to get his season going after an injury-riddled start. This game looks like a prime opportunity to get his legs moving.

Las Vegas’ QB Jimmy Garoppolo remains questionable with concussion symptoms, and he’s not available, or even 100%, the Raiders’ offense can be too murky to trust.

Pick: Green Bay Moneyline

Best Odds: (-130) FanDuel

If you fancy parlays, we have an NFL Week 5 Parlay to check out.