Odds For NFL Week 5


Updated: Oct 3, 2022

October is when the better teams start to separate themselves from the pack.

The first month of the season is a trial run for many teams, as coaching staffs start to determine their identities.

But as we enter the middle of the season, wins become more important than ever.

Keep this in mind as we dissect the Week 5 slate, which sportsbooks have already posted lines to view and bet on.

Which teams should win their Week 5 matchups? Which teams will cover their Week 5 spreads?

Read on for betting odds, picks, and predictions for Week 5 of the NFL season.

Thursday Night Football

Indianapolis Colts (+3, +146 ML) Vs. Denver Broncos (-3, -165 ML)

It’s always tough playing in Mile High, but it becomes even tougher on a short week. Can the Colts handle that kind of situational pressure?

I think yes. I also think giving a field goal to a run-first, defense-first team with a smart head coach and an improved quarterback room is a mistake.

For all the talk about Denver’s solid all-around roster, they haven’t excelled in the front seven.

They ranked in the back-half of the league in Rush Defense DVOA last season and I project them to finish that way again this season.

It’s tough to win on a short week when you can’t stop the run.

Watch as the Colts run the ball, dominate the time of possession, and keep this game within at least a field goal on Thursday Night.

My pick: Indianapolis Colts +3 (-110) | Playable at number

Game Kick Off – 9.30 a.m. In London

New York Giants (+8, +300 ML) Vs. Green Bay Packers (-7.5, -340 ML)

This is a pretty dry game. The only thing exciting about it is that we’re playing in London.

How does the London game generally play out?

The favorites generally win and cover, with NFL favorites going 14-9 against the spread (ATS) in either Tottenham or Wembley Stadium.

The NFL may be trying to expand the game, but they often pick the dullest games to send abroad.

Teams catching over seven points is usually the sharper play, but I don’t see the Giants having the horses to compete in this one.

I’ll take the Packers but would rather stay away if the line sneaks above into double digits.

My pick: Green Bay Packers -7 (-110) | Playable at number

Game Kickoff – 1 p.m. EST

Atlanta Falcons (+8.5, +328 ML) Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5, -370 ML)

How many points are too many points in an NFL game?

A double-digit spread is a lot, but the Falcons have a poverty roster. Plus, it’s not a great situational spot for Atlanta, who will be facing a big step-up in the competition after playing the Browns last week.

In the meantime, the Buccaneers can bounce back from the Chiefs game and don’t have to look ahead to the Steelers next week.

A reminder that Tom Brady is a perfect 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS against the Falcons in his career. I’ll take him to win and cover one more(final?!) time.

My pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7.5 (-110)

Detroit Lions (+3, +128 ML) Vs. New England Patriots (-2.5, -140 ML)

The question here is if Bill Belichick has his team settled in yet.

Belichick often treats September like an extended pre-season, figuring things out with his roster and trying to get the play-calling clicking.

Historically, that answer is yes. Belichick is 12-3 ATS in Week 5 since 2005 while being favored in every game.

Intriguingly, Belichick’s Patriots haven’t lost a Week 5 game since 2013 (13-6 against Cincinnati).

It should be a good bounce-back spot for the Patriots as well after that tough overtime loss in Green Bay.

It’s a big line to lay, and the Lions are always frisky, but I think Belichick’s Patriots make a statement here in Week 5, as they have in every other year over the past decade.

My pick: New England Patriots -2.5 (-110) | Playable at number

Houston Texans (+3.5, +140 ML) Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5, -165 ML)

In a game between two awful teams, I tend to lean towards the underdog.

I’m going to take the underdog here, too. The Texans have an identity with Davis Mills under center and have been frisky since the end of last season.

Houston is also looking ahead to their Bye Week next week, having only the Jaguars on their mind.

Jacksonville is playing its first home game in three weeks, but I just can’t lay over a field goal with this team.

I’ll bet the Texans with more than a touchdown.

My pick: Houston Texans +7.5 (-110) | Playable at number

Miami Dolphins (-3, -155 ML) Vs. New York Jets (+4, +160 ML)

This isn’t the best game of the week, but it is the most fascinating.

The Dolphins travel to the Meadowlands to play their division rival for the first time this season. Both teams are up-and-coming, but which young quarterback and which young weapons – on both offense and defense – will stand out?

The Dolphins are playing back-to-back road games but also had extra time to prepare after playing Cincinnati on Thursday Night Football in Week 4.

In the meantime, the Jets are coming home after visiting Pittsburgh last week.

Situationally, this spot favors Miami. But the line is fishy, and I don’t love betting divisional road favorites.

I’m going to completely pass on this game.

My pick: Pass

Chicago Bears (+7, +265 ML) Vs. Minnesota Vikings (-7, -310 ML)

Kirk Cousins is just 6-11-1 ATS when laying more than five points at home. He’s also failed to cover the spread in six of his last eight games in this spot.

One of those losses was against the Bears, as the 2018 Bears walked into Minnesota as six-point underdogs and came away with a 24-10 victory.

I’ll take the Bears to do it again and will happily fade Cousins at +5 or better.

My pick: Chicago Bears +7 (-110) | Playable to +5 (-110)

Pittsburgh Steelers (+14, +700 ML) Vs. Buffalo Bills (-14, -1099 ML)

Mike Tomlin is the biggest “Rah-Rah” coach in the NFL. He’s been the most profitable underdog coach in the NFL since 2005, posting an impressive 45-23-2 ATS record when catching points.

You’re now giving him as a road dog against a top-notch, Super Bowl-worth opponent?

This is the easiest pick of the week.

And at anything above a touchdown, I’ll be backing the Steelers.

Giving me two touchdowns, well, you know that I’ll be taking the -107 at +14 with either PointsBet or BetRivers…

My pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +14 (-110) | Playable at number

Tennessee Titans (PK, -110 ML) Vs. Washington Commanders (PK, -110 ML)

It seems implausible that the Titans were a pick ‘em in this spot when the odds came out in the summer.

Tennessee is the better team with the better quarterback and better rush game playing against a team coached by Ron Rivera.

This is my “Don’t Think, Just Go” pick of the week.

My pick: Tennessee Titans -2.5 (-110) | Playable at number

Seattle Seahawks (+5.5, +195 ML) Vs. New Orleans Saints (-4, -215 ML)

This feels like too many points.

Mostly because of Pete Carroll’s obsessive need to establish the run.

Carroll is going to run the ball with Rashaad Penny and try to control the clock, something he was very adept at in 2021 as the Seahawks finished second in Rush EPA per play.

The Saints are coming back from a defeat in London and it feels like a letdown and look-ahead spot for a team preparing for the Bengals in Week 6.

Put it all together, and this game should be decided by a field goal.

My pick: Seattle Seahawks +5.5 (-105) | Playable at number

Week 5: Los Angeles Chargers (-3, -154 ML) vs Cleveland Browns (+3, +135 ML)

If Deshaun Watson were playing this game, I’d take a good look at Cleveland.

A field-goal home dog with a stacked roster at elite positions and a franchise quarterback is a great spot to be in. 

However, the Chargers have the most loaded roster in the league.

They’ll be able to stand up to that stacked Cleveland offensive front.

Once that rush is stopped, Jacoby Brissett will not beat JC Jackson and Derwin James. 

I’m going to roll with the Chargers. 
My pick: Los Angeles Chargers -3 (-110) | Playable at number

Game Kickoff – 4 p.m. EST

San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, -200 ML) Vs. Carolina Panthers (+5, +185 ML)

I loathe betting Kyle Shanahan as a favorite, especially considering he’s 14-24-1 ATS when laying points in his coaching career.

However, Shanahan is 8-7 ATS as a road favorite with the 49ers, and that gives me enough confidence to bet him in this one.

The Panthers have nothing going for them. It’s a stripped-down roster that is primed to get dominated by Shanahan’s wide-zone rushing technique.

My pick: San Francisco 49ers -4.5 (-110) | Playable at number

Dallas Cowboys (+6, +220 ML) Vs. Los Angeles Rams (-4.5, -245 ML)

America’s Game of the Week features the Cowboys and the Rams. Dak Prescott and Matt Stafford. Mike McCarthy and Sean McVay.

The angle here is the Rams coming off a short week with Dallas catching a relatively sharp line.

The last time McCarthy and McVay faced off in early 2020, the Rams held on in Los Angeles for a three-point win, 20-17..

I’ll take Dallas to stay within the number again.

My pick: Dallas Cowboys +6 (-110) | Playable at number

Philadelphia Eagles (-5, -225) Vs. Arizona Cardinals (+5.5, +210 ML)

I love the Eagles in this one.

The Eagles are a high-upside team with a high-upside quarterback that made huge improvements in their true-talent level in the offseason. 

They are now the league’s only unbeaten franchise.

When I first saw this line, Philly was the road dog. A lot can change in a month!

 I simply cannot look past the Eagles on such a hot streak.

My pick: Philadelphia Eagles -5 (-110) | Playable at number

Sunday Night Football

Cincinnati Bengals (+3, +160 ML) Vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3, -174 ML)

The AFC North is such a fascinating division.

These two teams playing each other, during Sunday Night Football, in Baltimore with a field goal between them is similarly fascinating.

But Burrow has been pretty good in this division.

He’s 6-3 ATS when facing the AFC North as the starting quarterback, which does include back-to-back insulting wins over Baltimore.

The Bengals’ offense dropped 41 points in both games against the Ravens’ defense underneath Burrow.

I’ll take Cincinnati again, especially considering the Bengals have extra preparation time after playing on Thursday Night Football last week.

My pick: Cincinnati Bengals +3 (-110) | Playable to PK (-110)

Monday Night Football

Las Vegas Raiders (+7.5, +300 ML) Vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-7, -330 ML)

Taking divisional road underdogs is generally the sharper play.

Road divisional underdogs have hit a 53.4% ATS clip since 2004, bringing in about 44 units of profit for a 3.9% ROI.

I’m looking to do the same here. The Raiders are frisky, and the AFC West is too talented for any team to be laying upwards of six points.

Plus, Mahomes and the Chiefs have been somewhat vulnerable in this spot in recent years.

My pick: Las Vegas Raiders +7.5 (-110) | Playable at number

Check out next week’s NFL betting odds.

Latest update: 3 hours ago
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Lukasz Strycharz | Web Manager – A flâneur who follows Formula One racing and dabbles in SEO and content in the iGaming and sports betting niche. T...

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