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Chiefs vs. Vikings Same Game Parlay | Week 5


Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Oct 6, 2023

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The Minnesota Vikings are just 1-3, but every score that has gone final has finished as a one possession game.

The Kansas City Chiefs are 3-1, and three of their four contests have been one possession games, except for the 41-10 bruising they gave the Chicago Bears in Week 3.

This game has the makings of another close one, and I expect quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Kirk Cousins to do everything in their power to get their respective teams on the scoreboard and come out on top.

Ultimately, I believe the Chiefs will finish as victors, but Cousins and Jefferson will connect often to remain relevant in a losing effort.

With a loose game script in my head for this Chiefs-Vikings showdown, I’ll build a parlay of expected outcomes for this Sunday.

I’m placing this parlay at FanDuel.

Patrick Mahomes – OVER 285.5 Passing Yards

The Vikings’ passing defense is not good.

Minnesota allowed Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers to throw for 405 passing yards in Week 3.

Herbert is the most comparable passer to Mahomes that the Vikings have faced this season, so I’d expect Mahomes to throw for a chunk of yards this week.

The other quarterbacks the Minnesota have faced are Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts, and rookie Bryce Young.

They all have varying levels of talent and skill sets, but facing a field general like Mahomes is a tall task for this Vikings defensive secondary.

Mahomes was outdueled by Zach Wilson last week.

Now, Mahomes gets to take his frustrations out on Minnesota in Week 5.

Travis Kelce – OVER 76.5 Receiving Yards

Mahomes has a great matchup to tally a bunch of passing yards, and with tight end Travis Kelce as his number one target, Kelce is sure to benefit.

After missing Week 1, Kelce has only three games played this season.

In all three games, Kelce has yet to record more than 69 yards.

Kelce is going to have a big game sooner or later, and I think it’s coming this week.

The Vikings allowed six catches to Dallas Goedert in Week 2, and six catches to Gerald Everett in Week 3.

Everett and Goedert are fine tight ends, but they are not even close to the tier that Kelce is in.

Looking at those two tight end performances, Minnesota has shown a weakness at covering tight ends.

I’d assume Kelce gets plenty of targets in Week 5, and a chunk of receiving yards as a result.

This will be Kelce’s first monster game of 2023.

Kirk Cousins – OVER 287.5 Passing Yards

If the Vikings are going to stick around in this one, it’ll be from Kirk Cousins airing it out.

Last week, Cousins only attempted 19 passes against the Carolina Panthers, and that minimal usage only registered 139 passing yards.

The three weeks prior, Cousins averaged 46 pass attempts per game and 358.33 passing yards.

In those three games, all losses to the Buccaneers, Chargers, and Eagles, Cousins had to chuck it because the game script called for it.

I think the game script calls for Cousins to chuck it some more against Kansas City in Week 5.

Justin Jefferson – OVER 102.5 Receiving Yards

Cousins is going to fling it, so Jefferson should see a massive number of targets.

In last week’s win over the Panthers, Cousins only threw for 139 yards, but Jefferson still caught six passes for 85 yards and two touchdowns.

Jefferson is averaging 11.8 targets per game, but I would expect that number to be 15 or more when this game is all wrapped up.

The cornerback matchup for Jefferson will be L’Jarius Sneed, and I don’t think Sneed will hold Jefferson in check.

Jefferson is the best receiver in the NFL, and he will prove it once again against the defending Super Bowl Champions this week; even if the Vikings lose once again.

Wonderful displays of talent are still shown in losses.

T.J. Hockenson – OVER 52.5 Receiving Yards

The Kansas City Chiefs allow an average of 55 yards per game to opposing tight ends, and the over on Hockenson’s 52.5 receiving yards is very reachable.

Hockenson is the second most targeted option in the Vikings’ passing attack, after Jefferson of course, but Hockenson currently leads the NFL in targets by a tight end.

Hockenson is receiving just under 20% percent of all targets from Cousins (19.7%).

In a game when Cousins could attempt 50 passes, that would make for a ten target game for Hockenson.

Hockenson has caught 25 of 31 targets, that’s a catch percentage of 80.6%.

That’s potentially eight catches in this game for Hockenson, so I love the over here.

I think the math checks out.

Jordan Addison – OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards

The Chiefs defense has allowed some big gains.

Here’s a look at the longest receptions allowed by KC’s defense through four games:

  • Week 1: Josh Reynolds (DET) – 33 Yards
  • Week 2: Christian Kirk (JAX) – 45 Yards
  • Week 3: D.J. Moore (CHI) – 29 Yards
  • Week 4: Allen Lazard (NYJ) – 39 Yards

I mentioned earlier that Jefferson will be largely covered by Chiefs’ cornerback L’Jarius Sneed.

I like Sneed, he’s a solid cornerback.

Jordan Addison will most likely be shadowed by cornerback Joshua Williams, and to me, that’s a beatable matchup when Addison lines up in the slot.

Addison has run 23% of his routes from the slot.

If the Chiefs attempt to double-up Jefferson, Addison will be left open, and he will cut the top off of Kansas City’s defense and pick up some large gains.

NFL Week 4 SGP Odds At FanDuel
SGP LegsOdds
Patrick Mahomes – OVER 285.5 Passing Yards-114
Travis Kelce – OVER 76.5 Receiving Yards-114
Kirk Cousins – OVER 287.5 Passing Yards-114
Justin Jefferson – OVER 102.5 Receiving Yards-114
T.J. Hockenson – OVER 52.5 Receiving Yards-114
Jordan Addison – OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards-114
Parlay Odds+2210

Betting NFL Same Game Parlays

Same game parlay is just like a regular NFL parlay bet, except all bet selections come from different wagers within one football game.

The benefit of an NFL same game parlay is achieved by combining multiple bets so you can go for bigger wins as the odds increase.

The more bet selections you add, the more difficult it is to win, but the odds also greatly increase so is the potential winning amount.

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About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and enter...

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