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NFL Week 4 Parlay


Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Sep 26, 2023

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Week 4 of the NFL season is just a few days away, so let’s take a crack at another parlay!

The Jacksonville Jaguars’ dismal performance crushed last weeks’ parlay, so I’m going to be fading the Jags this week against the Falcons.

To me, it’s never good to be a scared bettor, and frankly, the Jags scare me. They may be worse than I originally thought.

I’ll save my frights for Halloween.

Using the same format as last week’s parlay, I will choose an underdog moneyline, one bet to go over the total, one bet to go under the total, and two spreads.

There are seven divisional matchups on the Week 4 slate, and so far in 2023, the under is 9-7 in divisional games, and the underdogs on the spread have covered at 9-5-2.

Let’s compile a great parlay for Week 4 of the NFL season!

For this parlay, I’m placing my slip at BetMGM.

Moneyline – Miami Dolphins (+125) vs. Buffalo Bills

The Dolphins scored 70 points last week and won by 50 points over the Denver Broncos in Week 3.

70 points!

That’s the kind of number that the Ohio State Buckeyes would score against Stony Brook or Wofford in a lopsided FBS vs. FCS college football game.

But, it happened in the NFL.

Although Buffalo’s defense has played better in the last two weeks, allowing a combined 13 points to both the Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders, they still lost to the Zach Wilson-led New York Jets in Week 1.

This Bills team is vulnerable, and their defense will be exposed in Week 4 against the Dolphins.

Should receiver Jaylen Waddle return to Miami this week, the Dolphins will have another playmaker to baffle defenses.

Miami will probably score less than 70 points, but this offense should be enough to outproduce Buffalo.

Spread – Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns (-2.5 | -115)

In this divisional matchup, the Cleveland Browns will prove to be the best team in the AFC North.

The Ravens dropped last weeks’ contest against the Indianapolis Colts in overtime, 22-19.

On the other side, the Browns stomped the Tennessee Titans, 27-3.

Cleveland quarterback Deshaun Watson showed that he could run this Browns offense, completing 27 of 33 passes for 289 yards and two touchdowns.

With all of the injuries on Baltimore’s defense, Watson could put together two consecutive outings for the first time since becoming a Brown.

The Ravens currently have linebacker Tyus Bowser and cornerback Tryavon Mullen out for Week 4 and a litany of players are designated as ‘questionable’.

‘Questionable’ is a great word to describe the Baltimore Ravens right now.

Give me the healthier Browns to cover the spread.

Spread – Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5 | -110) vs. Tennessee Titans

The Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase connection was back on Monday Night Football.

Burrow, although entering the game ‘questionable’, attempted 49 passes in the Bengals’ primetime win over the Los Angeles Rams.

Chase caught 12 passes for 141 yards as well, sort of a 2023 breakout for the star wide receiver.

I believe it will be this same Burrow-Chase combination that will decimate this 30th-ranked Titans’ passing defense in Week 4.

Tennessee just got picked apart by Deshaun Watson in Week 3, and it’ll happen again this week, until proven otherwise.

Maybe Cincinnati is slowly but surely morphing into the team we are used to seeing, at least on offense.

If the Titans fall behind early, and this game is put in the hands of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, the Bengals could have this spread won easily by the end of the third quarter.

All we have to do is avoid the dreaded backdoor cover.

Over – Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears (o45.5 | -115)

Sometimes when taking overs, I’ll look at teams with impressive offenses.

This week, I’m doing the opposite.

I’m attacking the over in this matchup of embarrassingly bad defenses.

Everyone knows the Broncos allowed 70 to the Miami Dolphins last week, but the Bears allowed 41 to the Chiefs last week, too.

That’s a combined total of 111 points.

Both Denver and Chicago were obliterated so hard in Week 3, that Miami and Kansas City benched their starters later in those contests.

With the Broncos and Bears sitting at 0-3 each, there will be no benching of starters.

I believe Denver can score more than half of the points needed to hit the over, but Justin Fields needs to show that he can run this offense, and this week may be the best chance for him to showcase any offensive prowess.

These teams are going to fight to the end to pick up that first win, and whoever loses may be on the clock for the 2024 NFL Draft.

Under – Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles (u45.5 | -110)

The Washington Commanders only mustered three points in Week 3, and the Philadelphia Eagles are coming off a short week, beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football.

The Eagles have been very solid at churning down the clock, currently sitting second in the NFL in average time of possession per game, averaging 36:23 of time with the ball.

Mix that possession game with a solid Philly defense and a Washington offense that is still putting the pieces together, and you’ve got a recipe for a potential under.

Assuming the Eagles can take an early lead, they will grind this game down to a nub.

If the over is to hit in this one, the Commanders will need Sam Howell to put on a big performance, and that’s a big if.

This entire parlay runs through the 1:00PM ET window of games.

If it loses, I could always salvage my day in the 4:00PM ET slate.

Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.

NFL Week 4 Parlay Odds – BetMGM
Parlay LegsOdds
Miami (ML) vs. Buffalo+125
Cleveland (-2.5) vs. Baltimore-115
Cincinnati (-2.5) vs. Tennessee-110
OVER 45.5 (DEN vs. CHI)-115
UNDER 45.5 (WAS vs. PHI)-110
Parlay Odds+2770

Good luck to all of you with your parlays for Week 4 of the football season.

How To Bet NFL Parlays

A parlay bet is a sports wager that combines several bets on one ticket alone.

Usually, you would go with moneyline bets but can use spreads, totals, and futures.

You can include props in many cases, and bettors can choose to link together just two sides, or up to 15 or more depending on the sportsbook.

Parlays are wholly customizable meaning bettors get to choose how big they want the odds to go.

How many sides will be included, and how difficult is it to make each leg of the parlay or do the same game parlays.

The way to establish consistency is to have just two or three sides and avoid chasing astronomical odds.

It’s fine to take your shot at a massive payout as well, but be sure to only risk money you’re prepared to lose.

Check out NFL parlay bets week 5 for betting ideas and to lock in early odds.

If you fancy regular bets, we got the NFL week 4 odds analysis worth checking out.


About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and enter...

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