Best NFL Parlay Bets Week 4
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Parlay Picks by Will Armitage. Will has been an avid sports fan since the early 1980s. His first sporting love was a mediocre English soccer team that dwelled in the lower leagues for decades. He since has switched allegiance to the EPL’s Arsenal. Every year since 1994, he has bet on the Minnesota Vikings to lift the Vince Lombardi. He is still waiting to be paid….
For each week throughout the NFL Season, I reveal my idea of an entertaining and value five-leg parlay where I choose one moneyline wager on the underdog, one over, one under and the two remaining picks are spread bets.
Should I manage to land all five below, then the return for Week 4 would be +3750.
Unfortunately, last week’s parlay was let down first by the Steelers not covering against the Browns, as well as the 49ers and Broncos putting on a snore-fest!
My “over” leg never looked likely to hit.
My parlay was already in the trash last Thursday! Let’s see if Week 4 will be the week when I finally hit all five legs.
Remember to shop around for the best odds and lines to achieve your maximum return.
As you’ll read below, there are some big differences of opinions at the sportsbooks this week!
Moneyline – Patriots Vs. Packers (Best Odds – +340)
It would not be very often that the underdog chosen as the value bet in Week 3 would then be the opponent for my Week 4 underdog moneyline bet.
However, this is where we find ourselves moving into October’s first batch of games.
Over the summer, I wrote that I expected the Pack to travel down to Florida, and in Week 3’s best game, The Battle of the Oldies, I predict Aaron Rodgers to usurp the GOAT on his home territory and hand the Bucs an unexpected home defeat.
This duly came to pass!
Confidence will be high on their return to Lambeau Field, especially as Green Bay will not have lost at home during the Regular Season since 2020.
However, if you must travel to Lambeau and put one over the Cheese Heads, it’s best to arrive earlier in the season.
To that end, I expect Big Mac Jones to come away from Wisconsin with a surprise victory.
The Pats won 75% of their road games last season and I expect this strong form away from Massachusetts to continue.
Lamar was too elusive for New England last week.
But I expect Bill Belichick’s team to keep Mr. Rodgers in better check this time round and leave Lambeau with a 2-2 record.
The range of odds on a Patriots victory currently varies dramatically, ranging from +230 to +340.
BetMGM is the one with the best odds here.
Over/Under – Vikings Vs. Saints (Played in London) (44.5) (-110)
This match will be played across the pond in London, England. The venue is Tottenham Hotspurs’ Stadium.
I happen to be a big Arsenal fan, who are their North London neighbors in the English Premier League (EPL) soccer division.
There has been enmity between these two clubs since 1887!
Maybe it’s my deep-seated dislike for Tottenham, but I expect fans of the Over to go home disappointed.
The Under has been the winner for 75% of NFL games played at Tottenham and I expect this trend to continue with the Vikings cruising to a comfortable low-scoring victory.
I also happen to have been a Vikings fan since the late 1980s, so I hope not to experience a double-whammy of disappointment should the Saints emerge victorious at the stadium of my detested soccer team’s chief rival!
When I first identified this leg of my parlay, the total was 47.
Now the best odds for it are 44.5 with FanDuel.
BetMGM is 43.5, so remember to compare those totals! With the Saints only averaging 17 points per game, you can see why the total has been in decline since the season started.
I’m still happy to side with the under.
Spread – Bears (+3) Vs. Giants (-110)
This is a game that would have certainly been on PrimeTime when I first started watching the NFL.
Nowadays, we are looking at two teams for which 2022 mid-table mediocrity would be deemed a good result.
The NFC’s low scorers of last season have been given a field goal head start by the sportsbooks, yet I expect the Bears to leave the Met Life with the laurels on the spread market.
The game is unlikely to be a feast for the eyes in terms of points being put on the board.
With their new Head Coach having instilled some belief in the franchise and their plethora of new faces bringing some much-needed energy to the team, I can see the Bears leaving the Giants’ faithful fuming yet again.
Over/Under – Rams Vs. 49ers (46) (-110)
For the second week running, the 49ers appear on my parlay. And for the second week running, they appear in the Over leg.
In this battle of California’s finest (Apologies Mr. Justin Herbert!), I expect Levi’s Stadium to witness yet another classic.
This is a fixture that in the past five seasons has witnessed not one, but two 80-point games, as well a 65-point Christmas present for the 49ers’ fans in 2019.
The current Super Bowl champions, with their enviable roster of deep, latent talent in seemingly every offensive position and a Jimmy G led offense will deliver the most entertaining match-up of the 2020s between these giants of the game.
Again, we see a wide variety of settings for the total. The low is 46, with the high at 50.
Remember to do your homework first before choosing where to place your bet.
Spread – Seahawks Vs. Lions (-6) (-110)
As readers of my Week 1 parlay will have noticed, I believe that the long-suffering Lions fans will have more to celebrate this season than they have done since 2017 and possibly even since 1992, when they last won a playoff game.
They are my selection to be the 2021 Bengals’ equivalent. As Ja’Marr Chase lit up Ohio last year, I expect the rampant rookie, Jameson Williams, to do likewise in Michigan and all over the country in 2022.
Back in January 2017, it was the Seahawks that extinguished the Lions’ Super Bowl dreams in the Wild Card Round.
With a resurgent Lions welcoming a clawless and clueless Seahawks to Ford Field, I see Detroit celebrating a two-score or more victory to keep their strong start to the season going.
Their 0-8 start to the 2021 season will be a long-forgotten memory!
When I first had this pick for my parlay, I took the Lions at -1.
Unsurprisingly, we have seen this move consistently in one direction over recent weeks.
For once the sportsbooks seem to be of the same mind. -6 is the spread across all of them.
I’m still taking the Lions to cover and will likely go on my two scores with Amon-Ra St. Brown’s amazing start to the season continuing.
How To Bet NFL Parlays
A parlay bet is a sports wager that combines several bets on one ticket alone.
Usually, you would go with moneyline bets but can use spreads, totals, and futures.
You can include props in many cases, and bettors can choose to link together just two sides, or up to 15 or more depending on the sportsbook.
Parlays are wholly customizable meaning bettors get to choose how big they want the odds to go.
How many sides will be included, and how difficult is it to make each leg of the parlay or do the same game parlays.
The way to establish consistency is to have just two or three sides and avoid chasing astronomical odds.
It’s fine to take your shot at a massive payout as well, but be sure to only risk money you’re prepared to lose.
Check out NFL parlay bets week 5 for betting ideas and to lock in early odds.
If you fancy regular bets, we got the NFL week 4 odds analysis worth checking out.