NFL Week 3 Odds

Now that Week 2 is in the rearview mirror, let’s explore the matchups for the week ahead and the potentially profitable bets to be placed.

In Week 3, there are just two divisional games, with the Jacksonville Jaguars hosting the Houston Texans in an AFC South clash, and the New England Patriots visiting the New York Jets in a battle of AFC East foes.

After the 0-2 start for the Texans and the loss of manpower (i.e. Aaron Rodgers) for the Jets, there may be little implication on the standings in these teams’ respective divisions this week, but I digress.

Also, keep an eye out for the weather forecasts. There may be rain expected in the Beltway area of D.C. and Baltimore, and maybe some showers in Kansas City, too.

Rainy weather can do wonders for the unders.

To kick off Week 3, let’s discuss two teams that appear to be heading in opposite directions.

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers – Thursday 21st September 2023 (Thursday Night Football)

Although Brock Purdy was ‘Mr. Irrelevant’, being the 262nd and final selection of the 2022 NFL Draft, he has kept this 49ers team relevant in the potential Super Bowl-winning conversation.

In San Fran’s Week 3 matchup with the Giants, the opening line on the spread was -9.5 points favoring the 49ers and has since shifted to -10.5.

The half-point hook being added to the spread makes this bet a little less enticing for me; at least I could have received a push if the game results in a 10-point win for the Niners.

New York QB Daniel Jones came back to life last week, throwing for 321 yards and rushing for another 59 yards, scoring three touchdowns (one rushing) in a narrow 31-28 win over the Arizona Cardinals.

The numbers were impressive, but that three-point win is not.

Sure, the 49ers could obliterate the Giants in Santa Clara, but personally, I’m not a fan of taking NFL teams favored by more than 10 points.

If the number for San Francisco falls to -10 on the spread, I might take it.

If not, I’ll save my bankroll for Sunday.

Pick: Pass | Unless that hook is dropped from the spread.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens – Sunday 24th September 2023

The Colts lost quarterback Anthony Richardson early in last week’s win over the Houston Texans.

Indy lost Richardson at the tail end of their Week 1 loss to the Jaguars, too.

This could be a looming problem for the Colts.

Luckily, for Indianapolis, quarterback Gardner Minshew filled in admirably last week’s win.

As for the Ravens, they edged out the Cincinnati Bengals last week, 27-24.

Baltimore shut down the Texans’ offense in Week 1, allowing zero offensive touchdowns and winning 25-9.

This matchup against the Colts has a similar feel in Week 3.

Baltimore’s passing defense can be beat, but their rushing defense has yet to allow more than 72 yards on the ground in either contest.

With a carousel of subpar running backs circling the Indy backfield, and rain circling the Baltimore area, I’m thinking this will be an old-fashioned, low-scoring Ravens victory.

Pick: Under 44.5

Best Odds: (-110) FanDuel

Buffalo Bills at Washington Commanders – Sunday 24th September 2023

Let’s stay in the potentially rainy Beltway and look at two teams that posted 35 or more points on the scoreboard in Week 2.

Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen rebounded mightily against the Raiders in Week 2, collecting 274 yards and three touchdown passes.

It will be interesting to see if this Bills’ passing offense can continue to click against a Commanders’ defense that allowed Russell Wilson to throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns in Week 2.

Washington allowed Wilson to pick up 56 more yards on the ground, so I’d expect Allen to produce a similar output with his legs.

The Commander’s and Bill’s rushing defenses have been less than stellar, and in a contest with some potentially wet conditions, I like the under.

Both of these teams scored a lot of points in Week 2, but it’s a whole new week, and I’m not buying Washington as a high-scoring offense.

Pick: Under 44.5

Best Odds: (-110) PointsBet

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns – Sunday 24th September 2023

After their 1-1 starts, someone is leaving Cleveland this week above .500.

The Titans picked up an overtime victory over the Chargers in Week 2, 27-24.

Ryan Tannehill’s performance in the win has me believing he should be the starting quarterback in Tennessee . . . for now.

The Cleveland Browns’ defense held Joe Burrow to only 82 passing yards in Week 1, and frustrated Kenny Pickett of the Steelers in Week 2, so I could quickly change my tune on Tannehill in Week 3.

The Titans passing defense continues to struggle, allowing both Derek Carr of the Saints and Justin Herbert of the Chargers to surpass 300 yards through the air.

This could be the perfect week for the Browns to figure out their passing offense under signal caller Deshaun Watson, now that they are living life after Nick Chubb.

This Cleveland defensive unit has one of the best squads, on paper that is, and should keep Derrick Henry in check.

I see this game finishing with a lopsided score favoring the Browns.

Pick: Browns (-3)

Best Odds: (-110) FanDuel

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions – Sunday 24th September 2023

The Falcons scored 13 unanswered points in the fourth quarter against the Green Bay Packers in Week 2, erasing a 12-point deficit to pick up a comeback win.

The Lions on the other hand, got caught up in a shootout with the Seattle Seahawks and were downed in OT, 37-31.

An interesting finish for both teams, one more fortunate than the other.

After facing both Jordan Love and Bryce Young in their first two games, Atlanta’s defense will square up against Lions’ quarterback Jared Goff, a true test of the quality of this Falcons’ 2nd-ranked passing defense.

Atlanta’s rushing attack has led the way for their offense, but Detroit’s rushing defense has held up strong, allowing just 86 rushing yards per game in the first two weeks.

If the Lions can immobilize Bijan Robinson in the Falcons’ backfield and Jared Goff can show the true identity of this Atlanta secondary, Detroit should leave the Mercedes-Benz dome with a win.

Pick: Lions Moneyline

Best Odds: (-158) FanDuel

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers – Sunday 24th September 2023

The Jordan Love era in Green Bay will kick off for real on Sunday when the young QB makes his first start at Lambeau Field as Aaron Rodgers successor.

Both of the Saints’ and Packers’ offenses appear to be in a state of flux.

New Orleans’ best rusher may be Taysom Hill, the QB/TE/WR Swiss Army knife, as he had 75 yards on nine carries against the Panthers last week. Those 75 yards are more than current starting running back, Jamaal Williams, season total (74).

Williams is a former Packer himself, so there may be some revenge on his mind.

Both Williams and Hill could find themselves leading this Saints’ offense in Week 3 as the Packers are 30th in the NFL in rushing defense, allowing 166 yards per game.

If Jordan Love can’t get any magic from the quagmire that is his receiving corps, and the Packers rushing defense continues to struggle, New Orleans is going to run away with this one.

Pick: Saints Moneyline

Best Odds: (+114) BetRivers

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars – Sunday 24th September 2023

This has the makings of a mismatched AFC South conflict.

Texans’ rookie QB C.J. Stroud did everything he could to defeat the Colts last week, throwing for 384 yards and two touchdwons, but his efforts were wasted in a 31-20 loss.

That production from Stroud will be hard to duplicate in Week 3 against a Jaguars defense that just held Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs to 17 points.

Assuming Trevor Lawrence gets back on track, the Jags should score often against Houston and put this game away early.

Until the Texans can put together a complete game, I keep backing the other side.

If the Colts can beat Houston by 11 with a backup QB, Jacksonville should take care of business easily.

Pick: Jaguars (-9.5)

Best Odds: (-105) FanDuel

Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins – Sunday 24th September 2023

The Broncos allowed Commanders’ quarterback Sam Howell to torch their defense for 299 yards and two touchdowns in Week 2.

What is Tua Tagovailoa going to do to Denver’s D in Miami in Week 3?

Miami showcased a more balanced offense last week in their win over New England, with Dolphins’ running back Raheem Mosters seeing 18 carries and recording 121 rushing yards.

As nice as that is, I believe Miami is going to put their foot back on the gas when it comes to their passing attack this week.

Tagovailoa to Tyreek Hill is going to be the plot of this show.

At this stage of his career, Russell Wilson will not be able to keep up with Tagovailoa.

The Broncos’ offense as a whole appears to be somewhat lackluster.

If Denver has any chance at winning, they’ll need to get Javonte Williams and the ground game going to control the clock.

That may not matter when Tua and Tyreek pop the top of the Broncos defense every couple of drives.

Pick: Dolphins (-6.5)

Best Odds: (-110) DraftKings

Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings – Sunday 24th September 2023

Both of these teams had solid seasons in 2022. The Chargers were a respectable 10-7 and the Vikings were an astounding 13-4.

Things have changed, and unfortunately, one of these winless squads will leave Minneapolis completely defeated thru Week 3.

Los Angeles has lost each of their first two games by a combined total of just five points.

I’ll chalk some of that up to bad luck.

With a defense headlined by Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, and Derwin James, that luck is bound to turn around for LA.

As for Minnesota, their Top-10 passing defense is a mirage. That defense is going to get peppered by an opposing quarterback soon.

I believe that QB will be Justin Herbert this week.

This game appears to be tight on paper, but I’m backing the Chargers to rebound first.

Some books currently have this game as a pick’em, others have it as a narrow spread of -1 to -1.5 favoring the visitors from Los Angeles.

In the words of Longfellow: “I shot an arrow into the air, it fell to earth, I knew not where.”

Pick: Chargers Moneyline

Best Odds: (-105) Caesars

New England Patriots at New York Jets – Sunday 24th September 2023

I made the mistake of backing Zach Wilson last week against the Dallas Cowboys.

I shan’t be making the same mistake twice.

While Wilson has played pretty poorly, New England QB Mac Jones hasn’t exactly looked like the second coming of Joe Montana either.

These offenses are murky, and I can’t trust either one of them.

Although, I do like both of these defenses, and I think this game has the makings of a hard-fought defensive battle.

The total for this game is currently set at 37, but I believe the final score could be 10-7.

I think the Patriots will win this game, but I like the under here.

Pick: Under 37

Best Odds: (-110) Bet365

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks – Sunday 24th September 2023

Growing pains were to be expected for this new look Carolina offense, but the growing pains are starting to hurt me now, because this Panthers team is painful to watch.

While some will foresee Carolina’s offense developing in a potentially soft matchup against Seattle’s defense, I see the opposite.

The Seahwaks’ defense has not played well to start the season, but they have faced a surprisingly effective Rams offense and an expectedly effective Lions offense in the first two games.

This Seahawks defense is better than the numbers currently dictate, and I see them proving that this week.

With Geno Smith playing like he did in 2022, if the Seahawks go up early in this one, I have a hard time seeing the Panthers come back.

At this point, Seattle is a much more polished football team than Carolina, which makes the spread of -5.5 look like an enticing number.

Pick: Seahawks (-5.5)

Best Odds: (-110) BetRivers

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals – Sunday 24th September 2023

The Dallas Cowboys defense stepped up once again in Week 2, allowing just 10 points in their defeat of the New York Jets.

In the first two weeks, New York-based football teams are now averaging just five points per game against Dallas!

What does Micah Parsons and Co. have in-store for Cardinals QB Josh Dobbs this week?

Arizona collapsed last week, relinquishing a 20-0 halftime lead, only to lose 31-28 to the Giants.

The chances of this Cowboys’ defense actually giving the Cardinals a decent lead to play with seems very unlikely.

Although I believe Dak Prescott and this Dallas’ offense will put up a healthy number on the scoreboard, the total looks a little too close to call for me.

The moneyline for the Cowboys is not a great value at -600, and the spread of -12 is not a number I’d like to wager on.

A football is a funny shaped ball that bounces in funny directions, which leads to funny events.

Sometimes it leads to your spread getting busted, which is not that funny.

Pick: Pass

Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs – Sunday 24th September 2023

The 0-2 Chicago Bears will head to Kansas City to look for their first win of the season!

Bad timing.

The Bears have a collection of injuries in their defense, notably, defensive backs Kyler Gordon and Eddie Jackson.

Perfect timing for Patrick Mahomes!

Chicago allowed Jordan Love to throw for three touchdown passes in Week 1, then got blistered by journeyman quarterback Baker Mayfield in Week 2, allowing 317 yards.

Mahomes is going to have one of those Mahomes-like games in Week 3.

Assuming the weather in KC holds up, Mahomes should destroy this defense.

The Kansas City defense showed up against Jacksonville last week, allowing just nine points, I have a hard time believing the Bears will score much more that.

But with that being said, I still like the Chiefs to score enough points to push this total over.

Pick: Over 47.5

Best Odds: (-110) FanDuel

Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders – Sunday 24th September 2023 (Sunday Night Football)

The Pittsburgh Steelers just picked up a huge rivalry win over the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football, and now they return to primetime in Week 3, visiting the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday Night.

The Raiders allowed Josh Allen to pick their defense apart last week, Las Vegas losing 38-10.

While I don’t expect Steelers’ quarterback Kenny Pickett to replicate Allen’s performance, I believe he will do enough to get the job done.

Pittsburgh has shifted their offense away from Najee Harris and the running game, and now feature offensive captain Pickett as the focal point, which may be the smart move consider how poorly Harris has run.

Las Vegas has not defended quarterbacks well, and I think that issue continues into Week 3.

If this T.J. Watt-led Steelers defense can continue building off their performance against Cleveland, it could be a long Sunday night for the Raiders.

Pick: Steelers Moneyline

Best Odds: (+110) Caesars

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Monday 25th September 2023 (Monday Night Football)

The Buccaneers’ rushing defense has been a brick wall in 2023, allowin just 54 rushing yards per game so far.

Jalen Hurts may have to use his arm a little more often this week.

Tampa Bay has allowed some success through the air, allowing Kirk Cousins of the Vikings to sling 344 passing yards in Week 1, and 211 for Bears’ Justin Fields in Week 2; 211 is a decent number of passing yards for Fields.

With weapons like A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, I’d expect Hurts to have plenty of success through the air in this matchup.

The Eagles have had issues of their own when it comes to stopping opposing quarterbacks, but Hurts and Philly’s offense may be a bit too powerful for the Bucs to keep up.

Pick: Eagles (-5.5)

Best Odds: (-105) FanDuel

Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals – Monday 25th September 2023 (Monday Night Football)

Right off the bat, looking at these two teams after two weeks, I think the Rams are the better football team.

Matt Stafford appears to be back on track after his injury-riddled 2022 campaign.

The loss of Cooper Kupp has hurt, but wide receivers Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell have done an absolutely incredible job of filling the void.

Los Angeles’ defense held up in Week 1, holding the Seahawks to just 13 points in a victory, then followed that performance with a one-possesion loss to the NFC-favorite San Francisco 49ers in Week 2.

As for the Bengals, they lost 24-3 in a wet and sloppy matchup to Cleveland in Week 1, then got bounced at home by Baltimore in Week 2, 27-24.

Losing the first two games of the season to AFC North division rivals has to sting for the Bengals.

After only recording 142 total yards of offense in Week 1, the Cincinnati picked up just 282 total yards in Week 2 against a beatable Ravens’ defense.

The Rams appear to be clicking and the Bengals appear to working some things out.

Also, that Cincy defense looks a mess right now.

I’ll continue fading the Bengals until they look more like the Bengals we’ve been used to.

Pick: Rams Moneyline

Best Odds: (+115) PointsBet

Check out next week’s NFL betting odds.

If you fancy parlays, we have the best NFL parlay bets week 3 analysis worth checking out.