Odds For NFL Week 3
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Sportsbooks have posted NFL Week 3 odds to view and bet on.
The pro football lines include a Monday Night NFC East matchup in the Meadowlands and a 2020 NFC Championship game rematch.
Which teams should win their Week 3 matchups? Which teams will cover their Week 3 spreads?
Read on for betting odds, picks, and predictions for Week 3 of the NFL season.
Thursday Night Football
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5, +160 ML) Vs. Cleveland Browns (-3.5, -175 ML)
There is no universe in which the Pittsburgh Steelers with Mike Tomlin as the head coach should be catching four points against the Browns.
Even if Deshaun Watson were playing this game, I’d still bet the Steelers.
Mike Tomlin is the most profitable underdog coach in the NFL.
He’s 14-6 ATS as a divisional road underdog. And he’s playing with a roster that I would power rate evenly with Cleveland’s.
Both the Browns and Steelers have elite defenses.
Both the Browns and Steelers should be able to run the ball. Both the Browns and Steelers plan on winning despite having mediocre quarterbacks.
Yet the better coach who has a track record of performing in this spot is catching over a field goal. I’m all over Pittsburgh here.
My pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 (-110)
Game Kick Off – 1 p.m. EST
Las Vegas Raiders (+1, +100) Vs. Tennessee Titans (-1, -120)
This feels like a really good bounce-back spot for the Titans.
Playing in Buffalo on Monday night is a really tough environment.
Even though it’s a short week, the Titans get to come home and play a much-inferior opponent than they did last week.
This year is too short a sample size to judge the statistics, but last year the Raiders and Titans finished almost identical in Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
So, given the situational spot, I’ll take the Titans. Plus, it’s nice the Titans posted a better weighted DVOA and Defense DVOA last season.
I’d always rather bet the battle-tested, better-defensive team at home.
The sportsbooks originally had the Titans as favorites.
It’s surprising that the visiting team, still seeking their first victory of this season, are the team seeing more handle.
My pick: Tennessee Titans ML (+100)
Cincinnati Bengals (-4, -194 ML) Vs. New York Jets (+5, +175 ML)
So, how good are the Jets?
I have no idea. But I’m picking this side based on the Bengals.
Despite their 0-2 record, the Bengals are the most volatile team in football.
This was a team that finished 17th in DVOA and proceeded to win the AFC based on Joe Burrow and JaMarr Chase magic combined with timely defense.
It’s early, but it feels like the Bengals could win or lose any game they play in. As such, I’m taking a shot with the Jets ML here at high plus-money odds.
My pick: New York Jets ML (+175)
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, -265 ML) Vs. Indianapolis Colts (+6.5, +250 ML)
This is a tough game to handicap.
The Chiefs are just 9-10 Against the Spread (ATS) as road favorites over the last two seasons. But the Colts are just 1-6 ATS as a home underdog underneath Frank Reich.
It feels like a sandwich spot for Kansas City, who just played the Chargers on Thursday Night Football and will travel to play the Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football next week.
But this could be a letdown spot for the Colts, who snuck a tie against the Texans before being blown out by the Jaguars.
However, with the Colts playing their home opener and the Chiefs’ general defensive issues early in every season, I’ll take the home underdog to cover a short spread.
Look for the Colts to run the ball, play defense, keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands, and stay competitive in this grinder.
My pick: Indianapolis Colts +6.5 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens (-3, -155 ML) Vs. New England Patriots (+3, +142 ML)
This is a fascinating matchup between two of the game’s greatest Head Coaches and two of the more promising young quarterbacks.
John Harbaugh’s Ravens have always felt like a thorn in the side of Patriot fans, yet the Ravens are only 2-6-1 ATS and 2-7 SU against the Patriots in the regular season since 2004.
The last time these two met up, Cam Newton led a 23-17 home victory as seven-point underdogs in a heavy rainstorm during the COVID 2020 season.
It’s tough to pick the Patriots in the early season, but the Baltimore defense just isn’t what it used to be (28th in Defense DVOA last season) while the Patriots are always smart on that side of the football (fifth in Defense DVOA last season).
Plus, this is a very favorable spot for New England, which is playing its first home game after taking on Miami and Pittsburgh while Baltimore could be looking ahead to playing the Bills in Baltimore next week.
Originally this was a pick’em game, but Vegas has shifted the line to a field goal difference.
My pick: New England Patriots +3 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles (-4, -175 ML) Vs. Washington Commanders (+4, +168 ML)
A fascinating NFC “Beast” matchup as Carson Wentz will host his former team in D.C.
The Eagles look somewhat re-booted with Jalen Hurts under center, but the quarterbacks won’t matter as much as the run game.
The Eagles led the league in Rush Success Rate last season, but the Commanders were top five in Rush Success Rate allowed.
The Eagles finished 19th in Rush DVOA on offense but the Commanders finished 19th in Rush DVOA on defense.
This line feels short for the Eagles, but they are traveling off a short week (played Monday night vs Minnesota).
I think we’re going to get a classic, NFC East grinder. These are two re-vamped offenses that added weapons, but two quarterbacks that likely can’t take advantage, and two rush offenses/defenses that cancel each other out.
When the lines first came out, it was yet another pick’em. It has since shifted a full four points since then.
I love the under at almost any number and lean towards the home underdog in such a low-scoring game.
My pick: Detroit Lions +7.5 (-110) best odds at DraftKings
Detroit Lions (+7.5, +270 ML) Vs. Minnesota Vikings (-7, -325 ML)
Kirk Cousins is 6-11-1 ATS when laying more than five points at home. He’s also lost five of the last six games in that spot.
The last time Cousins was in this spot was against these Lions. Laying 10 points, Cousins and the Vikings floundered to a 19-17 defeat which gave the 2021 Lions their first victory of the season.
The Vikings haven’t made any major changes while the Lions beefed up the defensive line in the draft.
Cousins was PFF’s 19th-ranked quarterback under pressure last season and finished 27th in adjusted completion percentage.
I’m blindly taking the points with Detroit.
My pick: Detroit Lions +7.5 (-110)
Buffalo Bills (-4.5, -200 ML) Vs. Miami Dolphins (+4.5, +194 ML)
It’s always tough to play in Miami in September. It’s just so damn hot and humid.
Sean McDermott hasn’t had a problem, as the Bills are 4-1 in South Beach under his tutelage. The Bills crushed Miami in 2021, winning 35-0 in just Week 2.
It is a bit of a sandwich spot for Buffalo, who is coming off two tough opponents (LAR, TEN) and now has to travel to Miami on a short week before traveling to Baltimore next week.
Plus, it’s a rather sharp spot for Miami, who is catching over a field goal. With the Dolphins 2-0, it’s interesting to see the wide difference in their moneyline odds for the weekend’s most anticipated games.
PointsBet are +165, whereas FanDuel offers +194. Remember to do your research and shop for those best odds!
But this is a loaded Bills team who knows how to play in the warm weather and knows how important these divisional matchups are.
I’m blindly laying the points.
My pick: Buffalo Bills -4.5 (-110) | Playable at number
Houston Texans (+3, +145 ML) Vs. Chicago Bears (-3, -146 ML)
I have no idea what to make of this game.
It’s a decent spot for both teams, with the Texans coming back from high altitude in Denver and the Bears coming off a typical disappointing loss to the Packers.
Additionally, the field goal line means Vegas values these two teams as equals.
Neither team has any distinct advantage on either side of the football, although I guess the Bears’ defense was markedly better than the Texans’ last season.
I’m just going to pass on this game. I’d take the points if the line got up to +4.
My pick: Pass | Would play Houston Texans at +4 or better
New Orleans Saints (-3, -150 ML) Vs. Carolina Panthers (+3, +140 ML)
Two teams in quarterback purgatory.
Although, I suppose the Saints are in the slightly better spot with Jameis Winston. But I haven’t seen enough of Baker Mayfield to judge him yet.
Stephon Gilmore is gone. The Panthers’ defense doesn’t have much talent and isn’t playing well/although they’re playing well.
If Sean Payton was still around, I’d easily be on New Orleans in this spot. The better coach usually wins out.
But there are few worse coaches in the NFL than Matt Rhule, who is now just 14-19 ATS as an NFL Head Coach and went 5-12 ATS last season after failing to cover his final seven games straight.
I’ll still take the Saints.
My pick: New Orleans Saints -3 (-110) | Playable at number
Game Kick Off – 4 p.m. EST
Jacksonville Jaguars (+7, +280 ML) Vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-7, -320 ML)
Are 7 points too many for the Jaguars?
The Chargers had a long week to prepare, but the Thursday Night Football game they played last week was a thriller against the rival Kansas City Chiefs.
It could be a slight letdown spot although they have no lookahead with the Texans on deck.
This line opened at 10. After the Jaguars’ shutout at the weekend against the Colts, the spread is down to a touchdown. This still tempts me and is my selection.
My pick: Jaguars +7 (-107
Atlanta Falcons (+2.5, +120 ML) Vs. Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, -120 ML)
The Falcons are running with Marcus Mariota at quarterback. The Seahawks are running with Drew Lock at quarterback.
This is going to be one gross game.
But I still think there’s value in this version of the Seahawks. Under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks are going to commit to the run game, for better or for worse.
The storyline was that the ‘Hawks were over-committing to the run and weren’t “Letting Russ Cook”.
But in reality, the Seahawks finished sixth in Rush DVOA on offense last season and second in Rush EPA per play.
With no quarterback, the Seahawks are going to grind teams down with the run and control the time of possession. Good teams can overcome that, but the Falcons are not a good team.
I’ll stick to the ML, however. 3.5 points is too many to lay with Seattle right now.
My pick: Seattle Seahawks ML (-120) | Playable at number
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, -200 ML) Vs. Arizona Cardinals (+4.5, +175 ML)
I will continue to abide by what I call the “Kliff Bars”, which is my rule for how to bet on Kliff Kingsbury-coached teams:
- Bet Kingsbury as an underdog
- Fade Kingsbury as a favorite
- Bet Kingsbury in the first half of the season
- Fade Kingsbury in the second half of the season
Kingsbury is 18-7-2 ATS as an underdog in his coaching career and 11-2 ATS as an underdog between Weeks 1-8. He’s also 3-1 ATS as a home dog in the first half of the season.
Kingsbury is just 1-4-1 ATS against the Rams, but I must abide by the Kingsbury rules and hope Kyler Murray goes crazy in this one.
My pick: Arizona Cardinals +4.5 (-110) | Playable at number
Green Bay Packers (+3.5, +150 ML) Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, -154 ML)
America’s Game of the Week features a rematch of the 2020 NFC Championship game, where people still debate Matt Lafluer’s field goal call late in the fourth quarter.
But what can we expect in this one?
Well, it’s the Buccaneers’ home opener. But they had two tough road games against the Cowboys and Saints. A first-place schedule is not easy.
The Packers just had their annual Sunday Night beatdown of the Bears and could be in for a letdown game against a Buccaneers team continuing to run it back.
Brady’s Bucs have covered both games against the Packers, so I’ll take them to do it one more time.
My pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 (-110) | Playable at number
Sunday Night Football
San Francisco 49ers (+1.5, +115 ML) Vs. Denver Broncos (-1.5, -120 ML)
I love this game. I love that the 49ers are catching points against the Broncos.
Sure, the Broncos are 1-1 underneath their new shiny quarterback, but they’re about to get a wake-up call with the 49ers.
The Broncos just played the Seahawks and Texans. And while the ‘Niners took on the similarly lowly Bears and Seahawks, San Francisco is a proven commodity with a quality head coach in Kyle Shanahan.
People like to laud the Broncos for having a “complete roster” outside the quarterback, but the Broncos finished just 20th in Defense DVOA last season.
The last time I checked, the quarterback doesn’t play defense.
Besides, is Russell Wilson back? He was abysmal down the stretch last season and I’m not ready to buy in just because he won against two abysmal defenses.
In the meanwhile, the 49ers were fifth in Offense DVOA and seventh in Defense DVOA in 2021. Even if there’s a quarterback controversy at the top, the 49ers have the coaching and the run game to beat anyone.
Especially a Broncos team with plenty of questions. Give me the 49ers with the points and on the ML.
My pick: San Francisco 49ers +1.5 (-110) and ML (+115) | Both playable at number
Monday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys (-3, +140 ML) Vs. New York Giants (+3, -148 ML)
The Giants get their arch-nemesis sandwiched in-between two other home opponents in the Panthers and Bears.
You know that the Giants will be very focused on this game. They could soon be 3-0, which no one would have foreseen!
But the Cowboys are going to see a huge step-down in talent after taking on the Bucs and Bengals in Weeks 1 and 2.
The Giants do have a new head coach, but they failed to cover both games against the Cowboys last season after covering both games against them in the 2020 season.
Considering everything, this line seems short. I’m rather high on the Cowboys regardless of their performances against two high-quality teams.
Their DVOA metrics last year were incredible and I’m expecting similarly efficient performances moving forward with Dak Prescott under center.
I’ll take the Cowboys on MNF. The spread has moved an entire touchdown recently.
Beforehand, I was happy to take the Cowboys at -4. Now with them at +3, it’s even more tempting…My pick: Dallas Cowboys +3 (-110) | Playable at number
Check out next week’s NFL betting odds.