Bills vs. Dolphins Same Game Parlay | Week 18

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Jan 5, 2024

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The final game of the regular season!

The Miami Dolphins are 11-5 going into Week 18 and they’ve already clinched a playoff berth.

With a win, Miami would clinch their first AFC East crown since 2008.

This game could get very interesting for the Buffalo Bills, depending on how the rest of the week shakes out.

With a win, Buffalo will win the AFC East and become the No. 2 seed in the AFC Playoff picture.

If the Pittsburgh Steelers defeat the Baltimore Ravens, and there is no tie between the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts on Saturday, and then the Jacksonville Jaguars defeat the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, the Bills get thrust into a tricky spot on Sunday Night Football.

Beat the Dolphins: Win the AFC East and the No. 2 seed.

Lose to the Dolphins: Go home.

For this potentially playoff-altering Sunday Night Football matchup, I’ll place a Same Game Parlay on FanDuel.

Josh Allen – ALT Passing Yards: 300+ and ALT TD Passes: 3+

The best way to beat the Miami Dolphins is through the air.

Just ask Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson, who collected 321 yards and five touchdown passes against Miami last week on only 18 completions.

In a potentially win-or-go-home scenario for the Buffalo Bills, I’d expect the offense to be in Josh Allen’s hands.

The Dolphins have a sneaky good rushing defense, allowing only 95.1 rushing yards per game, which is 7th-best in the NFL.

Miami’s passing defense is allowing 235.8 passing yards per game (14th in NFL), but with leading cornerback Xavien Howard out with a foot injury, the Dolphins’ defense becomes much less effective.

In Allen’s last appearance against Miami, back in Week 4, he completed 21-of-25 passes for 320 yards and four touchdowns.

Buffalo is going to need a performance like that again.

It’s sort of been a tale of two seasons for Allen. Here’s how Allen has done in his first eight games and his last eight games.

Allen’s Season SplitComp%Yards/GameTD PassesINT
First 8 Games71.7%270.6178
Second 8 Games58.8%219108

Allen must step up for the Bills’ offense in a crucial game such as this.

A repeat from Week 4 is in the cards.

Pick: Allen – ALT Passing Yards: 300+ (+350) FanDuel

Pick: Allen – ALT TD Passes: 3+ (+280) FanDuel

Stefon Diggs – ALT Receiving Yards: 100+ and Anytime Touchdown

I’d say Bills’ receiver Khalil Shakir actually has the best matchup on paper, running from the slot and being shadowed by Kader Kohou, a corner that has been burned far too regularly.

But, Stefon Diggs is Buffalo’s No. 1 receiver and in this big primetime game, I’d expect Diggs to receive plenty of targets from Allen.

Remember when I mentioned how Allen hasn’t played as well in the last eight games compared to his first eight?

Well, in the first eight games, Diggs was averaging 11.25 targets per game, and in the last eight, he’s only averaging 7.75 targets per game.

For Buffalo’s passing offense to succeed Diggs must get more looks.

Sometimes it can be as simple as putting the ball in the hands of your best players.

Diggs caught six passes for 120 yards and three touchdowns in the Bills’ Week 4 win over Miami.

The Allen-Diggs connection needs to get rolling again before the playoffs.

Pick: Diggs – ALT Receiving Yards: 100+ (+360) FanDuel

Pick: Diggs – Anytime Touchdown (+125) FanDuel

Tua Tagovailoa – UNDER 268.5 Passing Yards

Tua Tagovailoa was putting up monster numbers earlier in the season, but lately, not so much.

Tagovailoa has thrown for more than 250 yards only twice in the last six games, and in last week’s blowout loss to the Ravens, Tagovailoa averaged a season-low 4.92 air yards/attempt, stunting the movement of the Dolphins’ passing offense.

Air Yards/Attempt is the distance the ball travels through the air past the line of scrimmage.

In every game this season when Tagovailoa averages more than 10 air yards/attempt, Miami is undefeated, going 5-0.

Buffalo has allowed an average of 8.12 air yards/attempt in their six losses, but in their ten wins, the Bills have allowed only 4.54 air yards per attempt.

In Tua’s last meeting with Buffalo, he averaged 7.34 air yards/attempt, and he’ll need to improve on that number.

That may be difficult with Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill both questionable to play.

Suppressing the Dolphins’ passing attack may be the best path to taking down Miami.

Even if Tagovailoa and the Dolphins lose, at least Tua’s still got this.

Pick: Tagovailoa – UNDER 268.5 Passing Yards (-114) FanDuel

Tyreek Hill – UNDER 94.5 Receiving Yards

Tyreek Hill has been dealing with an ankle issue, and with some recent off-field issues, like his mansion catching on fire, he may not be at 100 percent.

If there is one team that has given Hill fits in the past, it’s Buffalo.

In his last game against the Bills, Hill caught three of five targets for 58 yards, both season-lows.

Hill putting up low numbers against Buffalo is nothing new. Hills’ yards per reception of 9.16 in six games against the Bills is the lowest number he’s produced against any NFL team.

In his career against Buffalo, Hill is averaging 5.2 receptions for 47.3 yards and has never caught a touchdown.

Hill could be running routes with a bum ankle and Jaylen Waddle on the sidelines, so going over 94.5 receiving yards may be asking for too much.

Pick: Hill – UNDER 94.5 Receiving Yards (-114) FanDuel

I think Miami is going to use this week to focus on health.

BUF vs. MIA SGP Legs – FanDuelOdds
Josh Allen – ALT Pass Yards: 300++350
Josh Allen – ALT TD Passes: 3++280
Stefon Diggs – ALT Rec Yards: 100++360
Stefon Diggs – Anytime Touchdown+125
Tua Tagovailoa – UNDER 268.5 Pass Yards-114
Tyreek Hill – UNDER 94.5 Rec Yards-114
Bills vs. Dolphins SGP Odds+7922

A $10 wager on this Season Finale Same Game Parlay would win $792.22!

Betting NFL Same Game Parlays

Same game parlay is just like a regular NFL parlay bet, except all bet selections come from different wagers within one football game.

The benefit of an NFL same game parlay is achieved by combining multiple bets so you can go for bigger wins as the odds increase.

The more bet selections you add, the more difficult it is to win, but the odds also greatly increase so is the potential winning amount.

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About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and en...

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