Lions vs. Vikings Same Game Parlay | Week 16

Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions visit Justin Jefferson and the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis on Christmas Eve!

The Lions took down the Denver Broncos last week, 42-17, and Detroit ended their streak of five consecutive games of allowing 25 or more points.

While the Lions’ defense looked a little better, so did their offense, with Goff throwing for 278 yards and five touchdowns and the running back tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery running for a combined 185 yards on the ground (100 for Gibbs, 85 for Montgomery).

Minnesota has now lost three of their last four games, losing in overtime last week to the Cincinnati Bengals.

Newly-appointed Vikings’ QB Nick Mullens threw for 303 yards and two touchdowns in the loss.

For this NFC North rivalry on Christmas Eve, I’ll place a Same Game Parlay on FanDuel.

Jared Goff – OVER 247.5 Passing Yards and ALT 3+ TD Passes

I would be surprised to see Goff throw five touchdown passes in back-to-back games, but I wouldn’t be that surprised to see him throw three.

Only Justin Herbert has thrown for three touchdowns against the Vikings this season (Week 3), but with the way Detroit’s defense has been playing in recent weeks, their offense may have to keep their foot on the gas.

Plus, the quarterbacks that Minnesota has played in recent weeks, they’re not exactly ‘gunslingers’.

Taylor Heinicke, Jameis Winston, Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Aidan O’Connell and Jake Browning are the QBs the Vikes have faced since Week 9.

Not the most threatening collection of arms.

Jared Goff provides a different challenge for Minnesota, as Goff is averaging 266.2 passing yards per game and has thrown for three or more touchdowns in three games this season.

3 TD passes, 3 different receivers for Jared Goff tonight 🔥
pic.twitter.com/HrsegDv4PT

— PFF (@PFF) December 17, 2023

The Vikings’ rushing defense has been strong of late, and in their last five games, only the Chicago Bears have tallied 100 rushing yards against them.

In the last two weeks, Minnesota has allowed only 136 total rushing yards combined to the Raiders and Bengals.

If the Lions are going to put points on the board, they will get them through the air.

Pick: Goff – OVER 247.5 Passing Yards (-114) FanDuel

Pick: Goff – ALT 3+ TD Passes (+300) FanDuel

Amon-Ra St. Brown – OVER 6.5 Receptions and OVER 78.5 Receiving Yards and Anytime Touchdown

St. Brown is the No. 1 target in Detroit, so if I expect Goff to succeed, then I expect St. Brown to benefit.

Against Minnesota, St. Brown has a winnable matchup in the slot.

Here’s how predominant slot receivers have fared against the Vikings in the last five games.

MIN Opponent	Slot Receiver	Results	Longest Reception
Week 10: New Orleans	Chris Olave	6 Rec, 94 Yds, TD (9 Tgts)	26 Yards
Week 11: Denver	Jerry Jeudy	5 Rec, 58 Yds (7 Tgts)	19 Yards
Week 12: Chicago	Darnell Mooney	2 Rec, 6 Yds (3 Tgts)	10 Yards
Week 14: Las Vegas	Hunter Renfrow	3 Rec, 46 Yds (5 Tgts)	38 Yards
Week 15: Cincinnati	Tyler Boyd	2 Rec, 53 Yds (5 Tgts)	44 Yards

That’s an average of 3.6 receptions and 51.4 yards on 5.8 targets, and interestingly, the slot receivers picked up large gains on single catches.

Except for Mooney, who had a 10-yard catch and still finished with six yards.

St. Brown is averaging 10 targets per game, so I would expect him to have a larger output than most of the slot receivers the Vikings have seen of late.

Across the five games played when St. Brown has received 10 or more targets, he is averaging 10.2 receptions and exactly 100 yards.

Considering how well Minnesota has stopped opposing rushers, I’d expect the Lions to lean heavily on their passing attack.

The Goff-St. Brown connection will be the story for Detroit on Christmas Eve.

Pick: St. Brown – OVER 6.5 Receptions (-158) FanDuel

Pick: St. Brown – OVER 78.5 Receiving Yards (-114) FanDuel

Pick: St. Brown – Anytime Touchdown (+135) FanDuel

Justin Jefferson – OVER 6.5 Receptions and OVER 82.5 Receiving Yards and Anytime Touchdown

The Vikings passing attack looked respectable under backup QB Nick Mullens, but a lot of that can be attributed to the return of wide receiver Justin Jefferson.

Jefferson’s presence on the field has even helped fellow pass-catchers Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, as Jefferson is certainly going to draw more coverage from opposing defenses.

Despite having a stronger defensive focus, Jefferson will still receive the bulk of looks from his QB.

Mullens has brought more stability to the Vikings’ passing game, and in his first start last week, Mullens targeted Jefferson 10 times; Jefferson catching seven passes for 84 yards.

Detroit’s defense has been allowing some big games to opposing receivers, and here’s how the last five No. 1 receivers have done against the Lions:

DET Opponent	No. 1 WR	Results
Week 11: Chicago	D.J. Moore	7 Rec, 96 Yds, TD (9 Tgts)
Week 12: Green Bay	Christian Watson	5 Rec, 94 Yds, TD (7 Tgts)
Week 13: New Orleans	Chris Olave	5 Rec, 119 Yds (8 Tgts)
Week 14: Chicago	D.J. Moore	6 Rec, 68 Yds, TD (10 Tgts)
Week 15: Denver	Courtland Sutton	5 Rec, 71 Yds (6 Tgts)

Much like St. Brown, I expect Jefferson to get a heavy workload.

I also see Jefferson continuing this trend of solid production from receivers against the Lions’ beatable defensive secondary.

Pick: Jefferson – OVER 6.5 Receptions (-108) FanDuel

Pick: Jefferson – OVER 82.5 Receiving Yards (-114) FanDuel

Pick: Jefferson – Anytime Touchdown (+120) FanDuel

Big time receivers need to make big time plays to hit this Same Game Parlay.

FanDuel SGP Legs	Odds
Goff – OVER 247.5 Passing Yards	-114
Goff – ALT 3+ TD Passes	+300
St. Brown – OVER 6.5 Receptions	-158
St. Brown – OVER 78.5 Receiving Yards	-114
St. Brown – Anytime Touchdown	+135
Jefferson – OVER 6.5 Receptions	-108
Jefferson – OVER 82.5 Receiving Yards	-114
Jefferson – Anytime Touchdown	+120
Lions vs. Vikings SGP Odds	+2859

A $10 wager on this Christmas Eve Same Game Parlay would win $285.99!

Betting NFL Same Game Parlays

Same game parlay is just like a regular NFL parlay bet, except all bet selections come from different wagers within one football game.

The benefit of an NFL same game parlay is achieved by combining multiple bets so you can go for bigger wins as the odds increase.

The more bet selections you add, the more difficult it is to win, but the odds also greatly increase so is the potential winning amount.

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