Odds For NFL Week 15

Will Armitage

Updated: Dec 13, 2022

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We’ve reached the final stretch of the NFL season.

Every team is done with their Bye, and now all four teams have four games left.

This stretch of the season will decide our playoff teams, playoff matchups, and draft order.

Sportsbooks have posted Week 15 lines to view and bet on.

Which teams will cover their Week 15 spread? Which teams will win outright?

With betting odds for Week 15 finding their range, read on for our analysis and picks.

Thursday Night Football

San Francisco 49ers (-3, -186 ML) Vs. Seattle Seahawks (+3, +170 ML)

This line is simply too low.

Thursday Night games trend towards favorites, and this is a lopsided favorite.

The Seahawks are at a disadvantage at every position on the field. Even Brock Purdy seems to be an upgrade on Geno.

Pete Carroll would need a few extra days to gameplan for this one.

It may be square, but I’ll be on the Niners to cover a short spread against a far inferior divisional opponent.

Stay away if this number creeps above 4, however.

My pick: San Francisco 49ers -3 (-110) | Playable at number

Game Kickoff – 1 p.m. EST

New York Giants (+4.5, +185 ML) Vs. Washington Commanders (-3.5, -196 ML)

The Giants are the better football team.

They’re better in the trenches, they have a superior backfield, and Daniel Jones might be better than Taylor Heinicke.

Specifically, on the road. Jones has a 28:10 TD-to-INT on the road and is 11-4 ATS as an away underdog.

I love the road divisional dog here, especially above a field goal. Will we see three teams in the playoffs from this division? It’s looking probable.

My pick: New York Giants +4.5 (-107) | Playable to +3 (-110)

Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5, -390 ML) Vs. Chicago Bears (+9, +320 ML)

I’m betting on the Bears here.

This is a hell spot for Philadelphia. The Eagles are in the middle of a three-game road trip, sandwiched by two divisional away games against the Giants and Cowboys.

In the meantime, the Bears are coming off their Week 14 Bye.

Add in the 9-point spread for a home underdog, and this is the sharpest spot on the board for Week 15.

My pick: Chicago Bears +9 (-107) | Playable at number

Miami Dolphins (+7, +250 ML) Vs. Buffalo Bills (-6.5, -295 ML)

The Dolphins traveling up to Buffalo in mid-December feels like a poor spot for them. It gets even worse when you realize the Dolphins are on the second game of a two-game road trip.

The Bills are 6-2 ATS vs Miami since Sean McDermott took over and a 4-1 ATS at home. I have faith in coach Mike McDaniel moving forward, but not in this spot.

My pick: Buffalo Bills -6.5 (-112) | Playable at number

Detroit Lions (+1.5, -104 ML) Vs. New York Jets (-0.5, -107 ML)

The Lions heat up toward the end of the season. I fully expect Dan Campbell to have his guys locked and loaded to end the season strong.

However, it’s worth mentioning the Jets covered three of four games to end the season last year.

I love the over.

The Lions’ offense has made big strides in 2022, but the secondary remains the biggest weakness on the team.

Mike White or Joe Flacco and his weapons should take advantage of the holes.

With both head coaches improving their teams as the season progresses, both offenses will be clicking in the last quarter of the season.

This game looks like a depressing matchup but it should be one of the more entertaining battles of the season involving two up-and-coming teams in a shootout.

My pick: Over at 47.5

Dallas Cowboys (-5.5, -210 ML) Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5, +200 ML)

The Cowboys are overvalued in the secondary. I think Trevor Lawrence has a real chance to slice up Dallas in the North Florida heat.

The Jags are also home after a two-week road trip and will be hunting for a win before having to play on Thursday Night Football in Week 16.

It’ll come down to the Jags’ defense, which is still a dumpster fire.

However, Josh Allen and Tramon Mark should provide some pressure against a Cowboy offensive line that is shaky.

I’ll ride with the home underdog in this spot, but am avoiding this game if the number falls to 3 5.

My pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 (-105) | Playable at number

Indianapolis Colts (+4.5, +185 ML) Vs. Minnesota Vikings (-4, -200 ML)

This is my favorite game of the week. Two up-and-coming teams with solid head coaches, strong play in the trenches, and a plethora of weapons across the field.

I power rank these teams almost the same.

The key difference: The Colts are coming off their Week 14 Bye.

That’s all the motivation I need to play the Colts. Even on the road.

My pick: Indianapolis Colts +4.5 (-110) | Playable at number

Atlanta Falcons (+3.5, +155 ML) Vs. New Orleans Saints (-3.5, -180 ML)

Interestingly, these two division rivals are both coming off their Bye week.

I lean toward the Saints here but think the number is just a tad high for my liking.

I have yet to trust the Andy Dalton-Dennis Allen duo as big favorites yet, even if the game is being played in the Superdome.

I’ll pass altogether.

My pick: Pass

Kansas City Chiefs (-14, -800 ML) Vs. Houston Texans (+14, +610 ML)

Home underdogs catching more than a touchdown have covered at a 55% rate since 2004. And we’re getting 14 10 points here.

In the meantime, Patrick Mahomes is just 14-17 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons. And the Chiefs took a step back this year.

Davis Mills should be frisky again, especially against a Chiefs secondary that is filled with holes.

I love the Texans catching this many points, especially after how they played against the Cowboys on Sunday.

My pick: Houston Texans +14 (-107) | Playable at number

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5, +115 ML) Vs. Carolina Panthers (-1.5, -120 ML)

The Panthers shouldn’t be laying points against anyone this season.

Now, they’re favorites against Mike Tomlin? The same coach Tomlin who is the most profitable underdog coach in the NFL this century?

This is a no-brainer play.

Tomlin’s defensive line will give Sam Darnold fits, and likely force him into ill-timed throws and costly mistakes. The Steelers should take advantage with a decent rushing attack.

I’ll bet the Steelers on the ML here.

DraftKings has the best odds at +115, whilst PointsBet is worst at +105.

If you fancy the Panthers, then the best odds are with PointsBet at -120. DraftKings is worst priced at -135.

My pick: Pittsburgh Steelers ML (+115) | Playable at number

Baltimore Ravens (+3, +130 ML) vs Cleveland Browns (-2.5, -142 ML)

These are two very similar teams, and this spread is set about right.

Both have stacked rosters with strengths in the run game and on defense.

There’s one difference, however.

Kevin Stefanski is 1-4 ATS in his career against John Harbaugh.

While I would like Stefanski in this spot as an underdog, I hate that he’s laying points. I’ll ride with the Ravens.

My pick: Baltimore Ravens +3 (-120) | Playable at number

Game Kickoff – 4 p.m. EST

Arizona Cardinals (+1.5, +102 ML) Vs. Denver Broncos (+1.5, +100 ML)

The Cardinals simply falter down the stretch.

More specifically, Kliff Kingsbury falters down the stretch, allowing his predictable game-planning and play-calling to bite him in the last half of the season.

As head coach of Texas Tech, Kingsbury finished the season by:

  • 2013: Losing five of six
  • 2014: Losing four of six
  • 2015: Losing four of six
  • 2016: Losing six of eight
  • 2017: Losing six of eight
  • 2018: Losing five of five

And since becoming the head coach of the Cardinals, Kingsbury has finished the season by:

  • 2019: Losing seven of nine
  • 2020: Losing five of seven
  • 2021: Losing five of six

But, I hate this line. It’s just a few too many points for the Broncos to be laying in a divisional battle in the last quarter of the season.

I do think the Broncos win, and will be looking to add them as a parlay piece for Week 15.

My pick: Denver Broncos ML as a parlay leg.

DraftKings is the only sportsbook offering a plus number. Their +100 is currently the best odds.

So if you want to ride with the team from Colorado, make sure you head to DraftKings.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, -180 ML) Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5, +180 ML)

The Bengals are just too high-variance. Behind Joe Burrow and Jamarr Chase, Who Dey can win any game. They can also lose any game.

I see no discernable schedule spot or major advantage for either side.

I can do nothing but pass on this game.

My pick: Pass

Tennessee Titans (+3, +140 ML) Vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-2, -130 ML)

The Chargers are a loaded roster. They’re better than the Titans in most areas, especially on the defensive end.

However, I think this line is slightly high.

Mike Vrabel is 18-11 ATS as an underdog in his career. This is a spot he’s primed for.

Ryan Tannehill will make plays and the Titans should be explosive enough on offense to keep up with Justin Herbert.

Derrick Henry should also push through that stacked Chargers front seven, and that could help win the time-of-possession battle.

My pick: Tennessee Titans +3 (-110) | Playable to +2 (-110)

Sunday Night Football

New England Patriots (+1.5, -103 ML) Vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5, -108 ML)

Bill Belichick coaching against his longtime assistant Josh McDaniels.

This should be fun.

This has actually happened before. The Patriots played the Broncos in Denver back in 2009 when McDaniels was still the head coach there.

As three-point underdogs, McDaniels and then-quarterback Kyle Orton pulled out a three-point victory.

I don’t see the same thing happening here.

The Raiders are weak in the trenches and in the secondary.

Belichick should be able to run the ball through the Raiders and keep the ball away from Derek Carr. Plus, you can never underestimate Belichick as an underdog.

If the Raiders end up as underdogs, I’ll likely look their way.

My pick: New England Patriots +1.5 (-118) | Playable at number

Monday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams (+8, +295 ML) Vs. Green Bay Packers (-7.5, -350ML)

This is going to be an incredible matchup. Well, had the Rams’ superstars stayed fit, then it certainly would have been!

These are two very evenly matched rosters on paper, although I give a slight advantage to the Rams from a talent perspective.

The problem is most of them are not fit.

Can we really rely on Baker Mayfield to produce a miracle two weeks on the bounce?! My gut says no.

The Packers are coming off their Bye week. Rodgers is 10-3 ATS off a Bye in his career, and he’s a perfect 5-0 ATS at home off a Bye.

I’ll ride with Green Bay to get a win and also cover the spread at Lambeau.

My pick: Green Bay Packers -7.5 (-105) | Playable at number

Check out this week’s best parlay bets and the next week’s NFL betting odds.

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About the author

Will has been an avid sports fan since the early 1980s. His first sporting love was a mediocre English soccer team that dwelled in the lower league...

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