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NFL Week 15 Odds

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Dec 12, 2023

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Bye weeks are now behind us, and all 32 teams will be in action from this week until the end of the season.

The Week 15 schedule will be spread across four different days, with Saturday featuring a three game slate.

All three Saturday games have a spread of four points or less, so those closely-matched contests should make for a captivating start to the weekend.

With the playoffs just around the corner, certain teams are looking for a late season playoff push, including the Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers; all currently tied atop the NFC South Division.

Let’s comb through the Week 15 schedule and detect some useful betting options.

We don’t want to leave any money on the table, so all picks are made with the best odds!

Thursday Night Football

Los Angeles Chargers (+3, +135 ML) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-3, -142 ML)

Total: Over 33.5 (-106 | BetRivers), Under 34 (-110 | DraftKings)

It was a rough week for both of these teams in Week 14.

The Los Angeles Chargers lost quarterback Justin Herbert to a finger injury, forcing backup QB Easton Stick onto the field.

LA lost to the Denver Broncos, 24-7.

The Las Vegas Raiders failed to score a point in one of the lowest scoring games in 40 years.

Las Vegas lost to the Minnesota Vikings, 3-0.

Herbert is expected to miss this contest for the Chargers.

So, one week after Thursday Night Football viewers saw Bailey Zappe vs. Mitchell Trubisky in Week 14, they’ll get a chance to see Easton Stick vs. Aidan O’Connell in Week 15.

The under is 6-1 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas this season, so let’s stick with that trend.

Pick: Under 34 | Best Odds: (-110) DraftKings

Saturday, December 16th – 1:00 p.m. EST

Minnesota Vikings (+4, +165 ML) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, -190 ML)

Total: Over 38.5 (-109 | BetRivers), Under 39.5 (-110 | DraftKings)

Cincinnati Bengals’ quarterback Jake Browning continues to perform incredibly under center in Joe Burrow’s absence.

Since taking the starting QB job, Browning has completed 75.5 percent of his passes and has accumulated a passer rating of 110.9.

For reference, Burrow had a completion percentage of 66.8 and a rating of 91, so Browning could be putting on an impressive audition for any clubs interested in his services in 2024.

Minnesota’s offense appears to be heading in the wrong direction, scoring only 13 combined points in their last two games.

This graph from BestOdds EDGE shows how fast the Vikings’ offense has been rolling down the hill.

Joshua Dobbs also may have lost his grip on the starting quarterback job for the Vikings, giving way to Nick Mullens late in Minnesota’s victory over the Las Vegas Raiders last week.

At least Mullens got the Vikings in field goal range for the 3-0 win.

Give me the team with the better quarterback situation in this one.

Pick: Bengals (-3.5) | Best Odds: (-109) BetRivers

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5, +118 ML) vs. Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, -135 ML)

Total: Over 42 (-110 | BetMGM), Under 42 (-110 | bet365)

The Pittsburgh Steelers have lost two games in a row, one to the then 2-10 Arizona Cardinals and the other to the then 2-10 New England Patriots.

The sky is falling in Pittsburgh, and Mitchell Trubisky is not the answer.

The Steelers’ offense has now scored 18 points or less in the last four games.

The Indianapolis Colts have scored at least 20 points in 11 of their 13 games, and I expect their offense to have a better output in the domed environment of Lucas Oil Stadium.

At Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, the over is 5-1 in six games.

Even with an anemic Pittsburgh offense on one side, I like the over here.

Pick: Over 42 | Best Odds: (-110) BetMGM

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST

Denver Broncos (+5, +175 ML) vs. Detroit Lions (-4, -192 ML)

Total: Over 46.5 (-110 | DraftKings), Under 47 (-110 | FanDuel)

The Denver Broncos got back to their winning ways in Week 14 and are now 6-1 in their last seven games.

The Detroit Lions on the other hand, dropped their NFC North rivalry matchup with the Chicago Bears last week, losing 28-13.

Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the Lions passing attack has hit a bit of a snag lately, with Goff averaging only 187 passing yards in the last two games, and St. Brown hauling in just five passes for 70 yards over both contests.

Goff and St. Brown will need to get back on track to beat the Broncos in Week 14, and I believe they will.

Denver’s passing defense is still only ranked 24th in the NFL (allowing 254.2 pass yards/game), and Detroit’s QB-WR combo should move their offense comfortably.

Pick: Lions (-4) | Best Odds: (-110) DraftKings

Sunday, December 17th – 1:00 p.m. EST

Kansas City Chiefs (-10, -480 ML) vs. New England Patriots (+10, +410 ML)

Total: Over 37.5 (-110 | bet365), Under 37.5 (-110 | BetRivers)

Despite scoring 20 points for just the third time in 13 games in a win over Pittsburgh last week, the Patriots offense is still pretty bad.

This visual from BestOdds EDGE helps paint the picture of New Englands’ offensive woes, especially when compared to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Overthinking this game could be a mistake.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs should be able to take care of business in Foxborough.

Pick: Chiefs (-10) | Best Odds: (-110) Caesars

New York Jets (+12.5, +550 ML) vs. Miami Dolphins (-11.5, -650 ML)

Total: Over 40 (-110 | FanDuel), Under 40.5 (-110 | BetRivers)

The New York Jets’ passing defense is the strongest part of this 5-8 football team.

While they still struggle to win games, the Jets are allowing only 184.7 passing yards per game, frustrating quarterbacks all season.

Last week, New York held C.J. Stroud of the Houston Texans to a wildly low 91 passing yards.

If the Jets can contain Tagovailoa and the high-flying Miami Dolphins passing offense, I like New York’s chances to cover here.

Especially after Zach Wilson’s 300-yard, two-touchdown outing against Houston in Week 14.

Pick: Jets (+12.5) | Best Odds: (-110) FanDuel

Chicago Bears (+3, +146 ML) vs. Cleveland Browns (-3, -155 ML)

Total: Over 37.5 (-110 | FanDuel), Under 38.5 (-110 | BetMGM)

Joe Flacco has brought the one thing the Cleveland Browns offense needed: stability.

It didn’t take much to improve upon the results of fellow quarterbacks Dorian Thompson-Robinson and P.J. Walker.

This week’s matchup with the Chicago Bears could be a tricky one for Cleveland.

As the season progresses, so does the Bears’ defense.

In the last three weeks, Chicago’s passing defense ranks sixth in the NFL, allowing only 173 passing yards per game, and through the entire 2023 season, the Bears’ rushing defense is second in the NFL, allowing just 83 rushing yards per game.

Cleveland still has the No. 1 defense in terms of total yards allowed (263 yards allowed/game), so this could be an old-fashioned, smash mouth football game.

Pick: Under 38.5 | Best Odds: (-110) BetMGM

Houston Texans (+2, +110 ML) vs. Tennessee Titans (-1.5, -125 ML)

Total: Over 39.5 (-112 | FanDuel), Under 40.5 (-110 | BetRivers)

The Houston Texans fell off a cliff in last weeks’ loss to the Jets, but in this battle of rookie quarterbacks, it’s hard to back Will Levis over C.J. Stroud.

Since Levis has taken the starting QB job in Tennessee, the Titans are averaging only 18.2 points per game.

The Texans hit a speed bump in Week 14, but they can receive a boost in the offense if top wide receiver Nico Collins (calf) and tight end Dalton Schultz (hamstring) are cleared to play.

The Titans passing defense can not be compared to the Jets’, so I’d expect a bounce back from Stroud and the Texans.

Even though Houston got stomped by New York last week, I don’t see them as underdogs here.

Pick: Texans Moneyline | Best Odds: (+110) FanDuel

New York Giants (+6, +225 ML) vs. New Orleans Saints (-6, -238 ML)

Total: Over 40 (-110 | DraftKings), Under 40.5 (-108 | BetRivers)

The New Orleans Saints scored 28 points last week, but much of the scoring can be attributed to the Saints’ defense and the Carolina Panthers’ inept offense relinquishing solid field position.

New Orleans forced the Panthers to turnover on downs five times!

The New York Giants are not “The Greatest Show on Turf”, but I believe they’ll do a better job of moving the ball downfield.

The Saints 28-6 win over Carolina was the first game this season that New Orleans has beat an opponent by more than seven points at home.

New York’s defense is the main concern, but as long as Tommy DeVito continues to keep the Giants’ offense energized, the G-Men could hang around in this one.

DeVito is the cult hero New York football needed.

Pick: Giants (+6) | Best Odds: (-109) BetRivers

Atlanta Falcons (-3, -162 ML) vs. Carolina Panthers (+3, +142 ML)

Total: Over 35 (-108 | DraftKings), Under 34.5 (-105 | FanDuel)

The Carolina Panthers are now 1-12, and somehow they seem to get worse every week, specifically their offense.

This graph from BestOdds EDGE helps illustrate that point.

The Panthers have not scored at least 20 points in a game since Week 6 against the Miami Dolphins.

That was about two months ago, on October 15th.

The Atlanta Falcons’ offense has been consistently better than Carolina’s offense, as they have scored at least 23 points in four of their last five games.

It’s been an awful season for the Panthers, as they are 30th in scoring (15.2 ppg) and 31st in scoring defense (26.2 ppg) and the NFL’s worst point differential of -144.

Not only is Carolina 1-12 on the season, they are also just 2-9-2 against the spread.

Pick: Falcons (-3) | Best Odds: (-110) bet365

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5, +150 ML) vs. Green Bay Packers (-3.5, -175 ML)

Total: Over 41.5 (-109 | BetRivers), Under 42.5 (-105 | DraftKings)

Baker Mayfield completed a touchdown pass in the final 30 seconds of the game to beat the Atlanta Falcons last week, but that magic may run out against the Green Bay Packers’ solid passing defense.

Green Bay has allowed an average of 218.7 passing yards per game, and Packers’ top cornerback Jaire Alexander is expected to make his return in Week 15.

The Buccaneers’ passing defense has been one of the NFL’s worst, allowing 282.8 passing yards per game, and Jordan Love could continue his strong play by picking apart this subpar defensive secondary.

At the outset of the season, Green Bay looked like an iffy team beginning to go through a rebuilding phase, but they still have a shot of making the playoffs after last week’s loss to the New York Giants on Monday Night Football.

Also, according to this trend from BestOdds EDGE, the Packers could have a nice bounce back week.

Pick: Packers (-3.5) | Best Odds: (-105) FanDuel

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

San Francisco 49ers (-13.5, -833 ML) vs. Arizona Cardinals (+13.5, +660 ML)

Total: Over 47.5 (-110 | FanDuel), Under 48 (-110 | bet365)

The San Francisco 49ers continue to torment their opponents, recording a point differential of +175.

The recent totals have been high for the 49ers’ games as well, at an appropriate 49.7 total points per contest in the last three weeks.

The Arizona Cardinal’s 31st-ranked rushing defense (139.3 yards allowed/game) could be in for a long day against Christian McCaffrey and San Fran’s 3rd-ranked rushing offense (139.6 rushing yards/game).

After only scoring 28 points against the Seahawks last week, I’d expect the 49ers to put 30+ points on the board against the Cardinals’ awful defense.

The over has hit in every Arizona home game this season, with an average total of 51.8.

One of the best offenses versus one the worst defenses, and even if it becomes one-sided quickly, a lot of points will be scored.

Pick: Over 47.5 | Best Odds: (-110) FanDuel

Washington Commanders (+7, +250 ML) vs. Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, -298 ML)

Total: Over 48.5 (-110 | FanDuel), Under 49 (-108 | DraftKings)

The Los Angeles Rams are 7-5-1 against the spread this season, and they are 3-0 ATS in their last three games.

The Rams have also averaged 36.5 points in their last two games, so they should have little issue with scoring against the Washington Commanders 32nd-ranked defense, allowing 30.4 points per game.

Sam Howell is the most sacked quarterback in the NFL, and this week, he’ll have defensive tackle Aaron Donald on the opposite side of the line of scrimmage, so that could be a recipe for disaster for Washington.

Los Angeles should be able to cover their fourth consecutive spread in Week 15.

Pick: Rams (-6.5) | Best Odds: (-110) Caesars

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Dallas Cowboys (+2.5, +116 ML) vs. Buffalo Bills (-2, -127 ML)

Total: Over 49 (-115 | BetMGM), Under 49 (-108 | DraftKings)

Dallas trounced the Philadelphia Eagles last week, 33-13, resulting in a two-way tie atop the NFC East.

Since the Cowboys’ Week 7 bye, Dallas is 6-1 and quarterback Dak Prescott has thrown 22 touchdown passes and only two interceptions.

The Bills squeezed by with a win as the refs declared Kadarius Toney offsides in Week 14, negating a Kansas City touchdown that would have given the Chiefs a late lead.

Buffalo will have to find a way to slow down Dak Prescott’s MVP-caliber play, and that will be a tall task considering that Prescott clearly has better passing options to deal with than Mahomes did last week.

The Cowboys ability to create turnovers, and Josh Allen’s ability to create turnovers, has me backing Dallas to cover here.

Pick: Cowboys (+2.5) | Best Odds: (-105) DraftKings

Sunday Night Football

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, -174 ML) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5, +150 ML)

Total: Over 43.5 (-110 | BetRivers), Under 44 (-112 | DraftKings)

The Baltimore Ravens needed a walk-off punt return for a touchdown to get past the Los Angeles Rams in Week 14, but they have now won seven of their last eight games.

Lamar Jackson posted his second game of 300+ passing yards and three touchdowns on the season, showing improvement under offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s offense.

The passing game for the Ravens should be a focal point once again in Week 15 against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday Night Football.

The Jaguars’ passing defense is now ranked 30th in the NFL, allowing 278.5 passing yards per game, and allowed over 300 yards passing to Texans’ QB C.J. Stroud (304 yards), Bengals’ QB Jake Browning (354 yards), and Browns’ QB Joe Flacco (311 yards) over the last three games.

Lamar Jackson is going to keep airing it out.

The Jags’ offense could struggle to collect points against a Baltimore defense that is allowing only 16.8 points per game (2nd in NFL).

Pick: Ravens (-3.5) | Best Odds: (-105) DraftKings

Monday Night Football

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, -196 ML) vs. Seattle Seahawks (+4, +170 ML)

Total: Over 47.5 (-110 | Caesars), Under 48 (-110 | DraftKings)

The Philadelphia Eagles have lost two games in a row, but both came to the 10-3 San Francisco 49ers and the 10-3 Dallas Cowboys.

The Seattle Seahawks only trailed the 49ers by four at halftime last week, and they held a 21-20 halftime lead over the Cowboys the week before.

Even the Eagles couldn’t accomplish that feat.

These two teams are all San Francisco and Dallas’d out.

Seattle is only 6-7 on the season, but they may be a more comparable opponent to Philadelphia than their records indicate.

Ultimately, I think the Eagles will win this Monday Night Football game, I just think the Seahawks can cover the spread of +4.

Pick: Seahawks (+4) | Best Odds: (-110) DraftKings

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