Broncos vs. Lions Same Game Parlay | Week 15

The Denver Broncos visit Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions on Saturday night!

Denver has won six of their last seven games, and they have allowed an average of 15.6 points per game over that stretch, showing some much needed improvement on defense.

The Broncos’ defense will be tested by Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and the Lions’ 7th-ranked scoring offense, scoring 26.2 points per game.

Denver desperately needs this win to keep their playoff hopes alive, as their 44% probability of making the playoffs will climb to 67% with a win.

Can the surging Broncos defense stymie Detroit’s offense?

Possibly not, as this is the most formidable offense that Denver has seen since Week 13 when they lost to the Houston Texans.

For this Saturday matchup, I will place a Same Game Parlay on DraftKings.

Jared Goff – OVER 253.5 Passing Yards and OVER 1.5 TD Passes

In three of the last five games for the Denver Broncos, they have faced some weaker quarterbacks, like Joshua Dobbs of the Minnesota Vikings, Dorian Thompson-Robinson of the Cleveland Browns, and mostly Easton Stick of the Los Angeles Chargers.

Jared Goff presents more of a challenge for the Broncos’ defense this week.

FLEA FLICKER.. GOFF DEEP BALL.. TOUCHDOWNNNNN pic.twitter.com/O6OdXIANzI

— Civ (@MisterCiv) September 17, 2023

Through 13 games, Goff has completed 66.9% of his passes for an average of 265.3 passing yards per game, and he has thrown for at least two touchdowns in seven games this season.

In Goff’s six home games, he’s completing 69.8% of his passes for an average of 273.7 yards and two touchdowns per game.

With his better work coming at home, I expect Goff to step up this week against a Broncos’ defense that is allowing quarterbacks to throw for 254.2 yards and 1.53 touchdowns per game.

Pick: Goff – OVER 253.5 Passing Yards (-115 DraftKings)

Pick: Goff – OVER 1.5 TD Passes (-120 DraftKings)

Jahmyr Gibbs – OVER 28.5 Receiving Yards and Anytime Touchdown

Gibbs has run second fiddle to David Montgomery in the Lions’ backfield, but Gibbs is a Swiss Army knife for Detroit’s offense.

In a game that has the potential for a playoff-like atmosphere, I’d expect Goff to look Gibbs’ way multiple times out of the backfield.

Despite missing a couple games, Gibbs has received 58 targets in the passing game in 11 appearances this season, making him the third-most targeted receiver on Detroit’s squad.

Before the Broncos figured some things out one defense, they were destroyed by opposing running backs in the passing game.

Here’s a combined total of running backs receiving results against Denver in the first six weeks.

DEN Opponent	Total RB Receiving Results
Week 1: Las Vegas	3 Rec, 28 Yds
Week 2: Washington	5 Rec, 86 Yds
Week 3: Miami	11 Rec, 90 Yds, 3 TD
Week 4: Chicago	5 Rec, 20 Yds, TD
Week 5: New York (A)	6 Rec, 31 Yds
Week 6: Kansas City	10 Rec, 65 Yds

There’s a blueprint to success of moving the ball down the field with running backs through the air against Denver’s defense.

The Lions should use the versatile Gibbs in this manner in Week 15.

Pick: Gibbs – OVER 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110 DraftKings)

Pick: Gibbs – Anytime Touchdown (-125 DraftKings)

Amon-Ra St. Brown – OVER 70.5 Receiving Yards and Anytime Touchdown

The Broncos defense has allowed at least one 70+ yard receiver in six of 13 games this season, but that number would be higher if opposing quarterbacks didn’t spread the ball around so much against this Denver defense.

St. Brown is the clear No. 1 target for Goff, and I would expect this QB-WR combo to get back on track after a couple quiet weeks.

GOFF TO ST. BROWN AND THE LIONS WIN AT THE BUZZER! #OnePride #MINvsDET pic.twitter.com/duobP8B2ZK

— NFL (@NFL) December 5, 2021

In the last two games, Goff and St. Brown have only hooked up five times for 70 yards and a touchdown.

This combo is the catalyst of Detroit’s offense. I expect it to be the focal point this Saturday.

Texans’s C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins connected on nine of 12 targets for 191 yards and a touchdown a few weeks back, and this is the kind of output I’m expecting for Goff and St. Brown this week.

Pick: St. Brown – OVER 70.5 Receiving Yards (-115 DraftKings)

Pick: St. Brown – Anytime Touchdown (+115 DraftKings)

Sam LaPorta – OVER 47.5 Receiving Yards and Anytime Touchdown

In 13 games this season, Denver has allowed 80 receptions (3rd-most), 902 receiving yards (2nd-most) and six touchdown catches (t-2nd-most) to tight ends.

Denver has allowed at least 50 or more receiving yards to an individual tight end in five of the last six games.

Sam LaPorta can continue the trend of tight ends picking up yards against the Broncos.

LaPorta has hauled in at least 45 receiving yards in eight of 13 games, and in this matchup, LaPorta could easily surpass his receiving yards prop.

Since Laporta is averaging seven targets a game, here’s a quick look at tight ends against Denver when they have seven or more targets.

DEN Opponent	Tight End	TE Results with 7 Targets
Week 4: Chicago	Cole Kmet	7 Rec, 85 Yds, 2 TD
Week 6: Kansas City	Travis Kelce	9 Rec, 124 Yds
Week 8: Kansas City	Travis Kelce	6 Rec, 58 Yds
Week 11: Minnesota	T.J. Hockenson	4 Rec, 55 Yds
Week 12: Cleveland	David Njoku	6 Rec, 59 Yds
Week 14: Los Angeles	Gerald Everett	5 Rec, 39 Yds

Everett was the only tight end to fall shy of the magic number of 47.5 set for LaPorta this week, but that may have something to do with Easton Stick in a quarterback more than the Broncos’ defense.

Pick: LaPorta – OVER 47.5 Receiving Yards (-140 DraftKings)

Pick: LaPorta – Anytime Touchdown (-105 DraftKings)

I’ve gone all Lions here, simply because I have more faith – and data – suggesting I back these Detroit stars.

DraftKings SGP Legs	Odds
Jared Goff – OVER 253.5 Passing Yards	-115
Jared Goff – OVER 1.5 TD Passes	-120
Jahmyr Gibbs – OVER 28.5 Receiving Yards	-110
Jahmyr Gibbs – Anytime Touchdown	-125
Amon-Ra St. Brown – OVER 70.5 Receiving Yards	-115
Amon-Ra St. Brown – Anytime Touchdown	+115
Sam LaPorta – OVER 47.5 Receiving Yards	-140
Sam LaPorta – Anytime Touchdown	-104
Broncos vs. Lions SGP Odds	+3900

A $10 wager on this Lions’ Same Game Parlay would payout $400!

Betting NFL Same Game Parlays

Same game parlay is just like a regular NFL parlay bet, except all bet selections come from different wagers within one football game.

The benefit of an NFL same game parlay is achieved by combining multiple bets so you can go for bigger wins as the odds increase.

The more bet selections you add, the more difficult it is to win, but the odds also greatly increase so is the potential winning amount.

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