NFL Week 14 Odds

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Dec 5, 2023

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There are 15 games on the Week 14 slate, with a double feature on Monday NIght Football.

Six games have been set with a total of under 40 points this week, with Thursday Night Football’s matchup between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers set with the lowest total of the week with just 30 points.

That should be an interesting start to Week 14.

The largest spread of the week is 13.5 points between the Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football, and Miami has won their last two games by an average of 25.5 points.

That should be an interesting finish to Week 14.

Let’s dig through the weekly schedule and find potentially profitable wagers in the NFL odds.

As always, with the best odds!

Thursday Night Football

New England Patriots (+6, +230 ML) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, -250 ML)

Total: Over 30 (-108 | DraftKings), Under 30 (-105 | BetRivers)

Two future Hall-of-Fame head coaches go head-to-head!

It’s Bill Belichick vs. Mike Tomlin!

Okay, you’ve got my attention.

The quarterback matchup is Bailey Zappe vs. Mitchell Trubisky!

Oh. Hmm.

This one could get weird.

New England is dead-last in the NFL in scoring, averaging only 12.3 points per game.

In the last three games, the Patriots are averaging a hilarious 4.3 points per game.

Pittsburgh has no room to brag either, scoring only 16 points per game, which is 28th in the NFL.

The Steelers are averaging only 12 points in their last three games.

This game could be a comedy of errors.

Pick: Under 30 | Best Odds: (-105) BetRivers

Sunday, December 10th – 1:00 p.m. EST

Houston Texans (-6, -250 ML) vs. New York Jets (+6, +230 ML)

Total: Over 32.5 (-110 | FanDuel), Under 33 (-109 | BetRivers)

C.J. Stroud continues to look like a veteran quarterback, averaging 348 passing yards in his last five games, and pairing that number with 11 touchdowns in the same time.

But, the New York Jets have done very well against opposing quarterbacks, allowing only 192.2 passing yards per game.

The last eight games for the Houston Texans have been one score games, and while I do believe they’ll beat the Jets, I don’t see the Texans winning by much.

After all, Houston gave the Carolina Panthers their only win this season, so New York may be able to hang around.

Pick: Jets (+6) | Best Odds: (-110) DraftKings

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5, +116 ML) vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, -135 ML)

Total: Over 39 (-110 | BetMGM), Under 39.5 (-110 | FanDuel)

I like the Buccaneers as an underdog here.

Take a look at the defensive comparison, courtesy of BestOdds EDGE:

The Bucs’ defense has done a solid job at halting opposing ground games, allowing less than 100 rushing yards per game.

Whenever the Falcons’ running game struggles to lead the offense, Atlanta struggles.

Tampa Bay has allowed 3.9 yards per carry this season, and when the Falcons average less than four yards per carry in a game, they are 2-3.

One of those two wins came on a walk-off field goal by Atlanta’s Younghoe Koo and the other win was last week’s unexciting 13-8 victory over the New York Jets.

The Falcons need to run, and that’s no easy task against Tampa Bay’s defensive front.

Pick: Buccaneers Moneyline | Best Odds: (+116) FanDuel

Detroit Lions (-3, -168 ML) vs. Chicago Bears (+3, +150 ML)

Total: Over 40 (-110 | bet365), Under 41 (-114 | BetRivers)

The last edition of this NFC North matchup occurred in Week 11, with the Lions coming out on top at home, 31-26.

Jared Goff threw three interceptions, giving the Bears solid field position on multiple drives.

Also, Justin Fields found plenty of success on the ground, picking up 104 rushing yards against Detroit’s fourth-ranked rushing defense (allowing 93.1 rushing yards per game).

This week, this meeting will be at Soldier Field in Chicago, and the weather forecast is predicting a temperature in the mid-30s and some snow is expected.

The last time Goff and the Lions played in an open air stadium was Week 7 against the Baltimore Ravens, and Detroit was obliterated, losing 38-6.

I don’t see the Lions getting blown out by the Bears, but I do think Chicago can steal this game at home.

Pick: Bears Moneyline | Best Odds: (+150) Caesars

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3, +146 ML) vs. Cleveland Browns (-3, -155 ML)

Total: Over 30.5 (-110 | DraftKings), Under 31.5 (-110 | BetMGM)

The Joe Flacco Experiment may already be over for the Cleveland Browns, as Flacco has been moved back to the practice squad.

Flacco played well in his Browns debut, throwing for 254 yards and two touchdowns against the Rams, before ultimately throwing a costly interception late in the game.

Even still, the best move for Cleveland would be to stick with Flacco under center, so even after rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is cleared from concussion protocol, the Browns should declare Flacco the starter in Week 14.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have quarterback questions of their own now as Trevor Lawrence was diagnosed with a high-ankle sprain in last week’s defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals.

If Lawrence can’t go, it’ll be C.J. Beathard getting the start.

The quarterback questions are concerning, so I’ll back the Browns’ solid defense here.

Pick: Browns Moneyline | Best Odds: (-155) DraftKings

Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, -112 ML) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+1, -102 ML)

Total: Over 39.5 (-112 | FanDuel), Under 40.5 (-110 | BetRivers)

The Bengals’ win over the Jaguars on Monday Night Football in Week 13 was surprising, as Cincinnati pulled off a 34-31 overtime victory.

The Bengals were +430 underdogs on the moneyline at Caesars.

Jake Browning has admirably filled Joe Burrow’s absence, and Monday Night’s results were a backup QB masterpiece.

Browning completed 32-of-37 passes for 354 yards and a touchdown; Browning also ran in another touchdown.

The Indianapolis Colts are coming off an overtime win of their own, beating the Tennessee Titans, 31-28.

This game has a narrow spread with Indy favored by just 1.5 points.

In the Colts’ last four games, they were favored each time by 2.5 points or less and Indianapolis went 4-0 against the spread in those games.

That’s a trend I can’t ignore.

Pick: Colts (-1.5) | Best Odds: (+100) FanDuel

Los Angeles Rams (+7, +275 ML) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-7, -310 ML)

Total: Over 40 (-110 | DraftKings), Under 40.5 (-108 | BetRivers)

The Los Angeles Rams have been playing very good football over the last two weeks, defeating the Arizona Cardinals and Cleveland Browns by a combined score of 73-33.

This graph from BestOdds EDGE shows how these two teams have been scoring, week to week:

The dip in the Ravens’ scoring, evidenced by the green line, may have to do with the loss of tight end Mark Andrews.

In their first game without Andrews, Baltimore scored just 20 points against the Chargers, and totaled only 18 completions on 32 pass attempts for 177 yards.

The rise for the Rams’ scoring, evidenced by the purple line, may be a matter of playing a weak Cardinals defense and receiving a fortuitous series of events in the fourth quarter of last week’s win over Cleveland.

Los Angeles scored 16 points in the fourth quarter alone against the Browns.

These are two solid offenses, but in a potentially rainy game at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, I like the under.

Pick: Under 40.5 | Best Odds: (-108) BetRivers

Carolina Panthers (+5.5, +205 ML) vs. New Orleans (-4.5, -230 ML)

Total: Over 37.5 (-110 | Caesars), Under 38 (-111 | BetRivers)

The Carolina Panthers lost again last week, and have now fallen to 1-11 this season.

The silver lining: The Panthers scored 18 points against the Buccaneers last week, their highest point total since Week 6 (21 points against the Miami Dolphins).

New Orleans Saints’ quarterback Derek Carr is in concussion protocol, and if Carr can’t suit up, it will be Jameis Winston under center for New Orleans.

The Saints have been favored in 10 of 12 games this season, and when favored, New Orleans is a terrible 1-8-1 against the spread.

Even against the lowly Panthers, I don’t see the Saints winning by a touchdown here, especially if Jameis Winston is the Saints’ starting quarterback.

The last time these two NFC South rivals met back in Week 2, Carolina lost to New Orleans, 20-17.

Pick: Panthers (+5.5) | Best Odds: (-110) FanDuel

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Minnesota Vikings (-3, -152 ML) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+3, +136 ML)

Total: Over 40 (-110 | DraftKings), Under 40.5 (-110 | BetMGM)

This comparison of Minnesota and Las Vegas’ offenses from BestOdds EDGE shows that these are not great offenses.

Even Minnesota’s decently-ranked passing attack is now a statistical mirage after the departure of Kirk Cousins from the Vikings’ offense.

Since Joshua Dobbs has taken over at QB, Minnesota is averaging 227.5 passing yards per game.

The other eight games, the Vikings offense averaged 294.3 passing yards per game.

Fun Fact: the under is 5-1 in games played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas this season.

Of all the games that were set with totals in the 30s this week, this should have been one of them.

Pick: Under 40.5 | Best Odds: (-110) BetMGM

Seattle Seahawks (+11, +450 ML) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-10.5, -550 ML)

Total: Over 46.5 (-110 | FanDuel), Under 47 (-110 | DraftKings)

The San Francisco 49ers are the NFL’s most complete team.

“Dirty Purdy and the Gold Diggers” continue to wreck the league.

The 49ers’ three game losing streak in October was just a blip.

I don’t mind the Seahawks, they’re a solid team, and they just gave the Dallas Cowboys a run for their money last week as 9.5-point underdogs.

But, I’m still taking the 49ers to cover the spread at home.

Pick: 49ers (-10.5) | Best Odds: (-109) BetRivers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Denver Broncos (+3, +130 ML) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, -148 ML)

Total: Over 43.5 (-110 | BetRivers), Under 44 (-110 | bet365)

The Denver Broncos’ five-game winning streak finally came to an end last week as the Houston Texans defeated the Broncos, 22-17.

The Broncos’ defense allowed 13 points to Houston by the 12:58 mark in the second quarter, revealing their lackluster defense once again.

Denver held a 13-3 halftime deficit to Houston, and it was the first time since Week 6 against the Kansas City Chiefs that the Broncos failed to score more than three points prior to halftime.

The Los Angeles Chargers defeated the New England Patriots last week, by a grand score of 6-0.

There are some concerns with the Chargers’ offense as they have now scored just 16 points in their last two games combined.

Those two games came against the Patriots and Ravens, two decent defenses, so Los Angeles’ offense could get back on track against the Broncos’ 29th-ranked scoring defense.

Pick: Chargers (-2.5) | Best Odds: (-112) BetRivers

Buffalo Bills (+2.5, +122 ML) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, -138 ML)

Total: Over 47 (-115 | DraftKings), Under 47.5 (-109 | BetRivers)

The usually successful Buffalo Bills have fallen on hard times, losing four of their last six games.

The usually successful Kansas City Chiefs have hit a bumpy patch in the road as well, losing three of their last five games.

This week, I think the Chiefs bounce back first at Arrowhead Stadium.

This insight from BestOdds EDGE tells me that Kansas City tends to play well at home.

Also, BestOdds EDGE tells me that the Chiefs are the superior team in almost every defensive category.

The Bills have had a frustrating season, and I don’t see those frustrations ending just yet.

Pick: Chiefs (-2.5) | Best Odds: (-110) BetMGM

Sunday Night Football

Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5, +160 ML) vs. Dallas Cowboys (-3, -174 ML)

Total: Over 52.5 (-110 | FanDuel), Under 53 (-108 | DraftKings)

The Philadelphia Eagles were just trounced at home by the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13, losing 42-19.

The Eagles’ defensive secondary continues to be shredded by opposing QBs.

Here’s a quick look at how opposing QBs have fared against Philadelphia’s defense in the last five weeks:

PHI OpponentQuarterbackQB Results
Week 8: WashingtonSam Howell39/52, 397 Yds, 4 TD, INT
Week 9: DallasDak Prescott29/44, 374 Yds, 3 TD
Week 11: Kansas CityPatrick Mahomes24/43, 177 Yds, 2 TD, INT
Week 12: BuffaloJosh Allen29/51, 339 Yds, 2 TD, INT
Week 13: San FranciscoBrock Purdy19/27, 314 Yds, 4 TD

That’s an average of 320.2 passing yards and a touchdown to interception ratio of 15:3 in the last five games against Philly’s defense.

I’m really not a believer in the Dallas Cowboys’ defense either.

The Cowboys have had a soft schedule, and the Seattle Seahawks proved it last week when they put up 35 points on Dallas’ defense.

This game has the highest total of the week, and I’m still taking the over in this one.

The last time these two squared up, the Eagles won 28-23, a total of 51 points.

In this huge NFC East rivalry in primetime, I expect Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott to go off.

Pick: Over 52.5 | Best Odds: (-110) FanDuel

Monday Night Football

Tennessee Titans (+13.5, +610 ML) vs. Miami Dolphins (-13.5, -800 ML)

Total: Over 47 (-109 | BetRivers), Under 47.5 (-110 | BetMGM)

Since Will Levis has taken over at quarterback, the Tennessee Titans are averaging 18.2 points per game, which isn’t the worst, but it’s not great.

After Levis’ four passing touchdown debut, the Titans are averaging just 16.2 points per game.

While offense is a big question mark in Tennessee, it’s the focal point of the Miami Dolphins’ success.

Miami is averaging 32 points per game this season, and after putting up 34 points on the Jets and 45 against the Commanders in the last two weeks, I’m expecting the Dolphins to go over 30 points again in Week 14.

Tennessee’s 23rd-ranked passing defense is going to be vaporized by Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Pick: Dolphins (-13.5) | Best Odds: (-108) BetRivers

Green Bay Packers (-6.5, -286 ML) vs. New York Giants (+7, +270 ML)

Total: Over 37 (-108 | DraftKings), Under 37.5 (-115 | FanDuel)

This Monday Night Football matchup features two of the more interesting quarterback stories in the NFL right now.

The Packers have won four of their last five games, and a large part of that success comes from the quality play of quarterback Jordan Love.

Love is 274.8 passing yards per game and has thrown 11 touchdowns in those five games.

Love is now tied with Patrick Mahomes for fifth in the NFL in touchdown passes with 22; behind only Dak Prescott (26), Josh Allen (24), Tua Tagovailoa (24), and Brock Purdy (23).

The Giants’ new quarterback is Tommy DeVito, and DeVito has made the start under center in New York’s last four games.

DeVito has recorded a QB rating of 92.4 and has helped the Giants to win their last two contests against the Commanders and Patriots.

In the two wins, DeVito completed 69 percent of his passes and has thrown for four touchdowns and zero interceptions.

In this matchup of interesting QB stories, I’ll back Love and the Packers.

Love just threw for 267 yards and three touchdowns against a very formidable Chiefs’ defense in Week 13.

Against this porous New York secondary, 300-yards and three touchdowns is not out of the question for Love.
Pick: Packers (-6.5) | Best Odds: (-110) BetRivers

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About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and en...

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