NFL Player Prop Bets Week 14

In the NFL, the ebb and flow of judgment cast on an individual player’s on-field abilities is a constant.

A ceaseless practice, especially from the perspective of bettors.

What one bettor may think about any given player can seesaw back-and-forth, hot one week, cold the next.

But, for any sole player in question, sometimes a specific matchup is too advantageous to discount.

Submitted for your perusal: Jake Browning.

An undrafted, journeyman quarterback, thrust into the starring role of the Cincinnati Bengals in an attempt to fill Joe Burrow’s immense shoes.

In his first start, against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12, Browning completed 19-of-26 passes for 227 yards, one touchdown pass, and one interception.

Not a terrible showing, but the Steelers’ defense held Browning to what some would call “bland numbers”.

For many bettors, Browning now had an identity cast upon him after one start: bland.

Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed a quarterback to throw for 250 or more passing yards in just five of 12 games this season, so this may not have been a great matchup for Browning.

Not the same story in Week 13, as Browning completed 32-of-37 passes for 354 yards and a touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars, destroying his passing yards prop of 219.5 on FanDuel.

Jacksonville has the NFL’s 28th-ranked passing defense, allowing 275.8 yards per game, so a magnificent passing display could not have been ruled out.

Needless to say, Browning went from “bland” to “zesty” pretty quick.

Let’s find some potentially zesty player props this week.

All props are presented with the best odds!

Desmond Ridder – QB, Atlanta Falcons

Falcon’s quarterback Desmond Ridder is my top choice to go from “bland” to “zesty” in Week 14.

This week, Ridder gets a matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ 29th-ranked passing defense.

Only two quarterbacks have failed to reach 191 passing yards against the Buccaneers this season, Derek Carr of the New Orlean Saints in Week 2, and Bryce Young of the Carolina Panthers in Week 13.

Here’s a quick look at Carr and Young’s performances against Tampa Bay:

Quarterback vs. TB	Comp/Att	Pass Yards	Yds/Att
Week 2: Derek Carr	23/32	127 Yards	3.43
Week 13: Bryce Young	15/31	178 Yards	5.74

While Young’s performance was par for the course, Carr’s 3.43 yards per attempt was a season-low outlier; Carr’s yards per attempt over the entire season is 7.01.

Against Tampa Bay’s lackluster passing defense, those are two weird results, especially for Carr.

Ridder has played the Buccaneers once before, leading the Falcons to a narrow 16-13 win in Tampa Bay back in Week 7.

The second-year quarterback completed 19-of-25 passes for 250 yards in the win.

At home in Atlanta, inside a dome, I like Ridder’s chances of producing a solid performance this week.

#Falcons QB Desmond Ridder finds TE MyCole Pruitt for the 20-Yard Touchdown Pass#Falcons– 7

2Q#Jets– 2#DirtyBirds #TakeFlight

pic.twitter.com/RJT5RbdZQq

— SportsCastProductions (@SportsCastProd0) December 3, 2023

This is the same Bucs’ defense that allowed 470 passing yards to Houston Texans’ rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud.

For this prop, we only need Ridder to produce 41% of Stroud’s wild passing yards number.

Pick: Ridder – OVER 190.5 Passing Yards

Best Odds: (-114) FanDuel

Zack Moss – RB, Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor is ruled out for Week 14, so Zack Moss will get the lion’s share of carries against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Cincinnati has the NFL’s 27th-ranked rushing defense, allowing 133.9 rushing yards per game, and Moss could do well in Taylor’s absence.

Moss has played in four games where Jonathan Taylor has not made an appearance.

Here’s how Moss has fared in games without Taylor:

Opponent	Moss’ Results w/o Taylor
Week 2: Houston	18 car, 88 yds, TD
Week 3: Baltimore	30 car, 122 yds
Week 4: LA Rams	18 car, 70 yds
Week 13: Tennessee	19 car, 51 yds

That’s an average of 21.3 carries and 82.8 rushing yards per game for Moss as the lead back.

BestOdds EDGE shows that opposing running backs have been running well against the Bengals’ defense in recent weeks.

Also, Travis Etienne was questionable heading into last week’s matchup against Cincinnati, so Etienne failing to go over his rushing yards prop is just a minor hiccup.

Moss will get the necessary workload to hit the over on his rushing yards prop in Week 14.

Pick: Moss – OVER 68.5 Rushing Yards

Best Odds: (-115) DraftKings

Davante Adams – WR, Las Vegas Raiders

It appears that Adams’ connection with rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell is beginning to solidify.

Here’s how Adams has done against his receiving yards prop over the last three games, courtesy of BestOdds EDGE.

After seeing his receiving yards prop being set at relatively low numbers, Adams’ receiving yards prop is now back into the 70s, which makes sense considering that he is an elite wide receiver.

Hitting the over on receiving yards can be difficult against the New York Jets and Kansas City Chiefs, with the Jets allowing only 192.2 passing yards per game (3rd in NFL) and the Chiefs allowing only 201.8 passing yards per game (5th in NFL).

O’Connell only threw for 153 yards against New York, and Adams still tallied 86 yards.

DAVANTE. ADAMS.#LVvsMIA | 📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/7avWnIHEaG

— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) November 19, 2023

This week’s matchup is more promising for the Las Vegas Raiders’ passing attack, as they face the Minnesota Vikings’ 19th-ranked passing defense, allowing 243.6 yards per game.

Adams will be shadowed by Vikings’ cornerback Mekhi Blackmon, and that’s a great matchup for Adams.

Blackmon just got torched by D.J. Moore of the Chicago Bears last week, with Moore catching 11 passes for 114 yards.

The O’Connell-Adams connection will continue its strong run.

Pick: Adams – OVER 70.5 Receiving Yards

Best Odds: (-110) bet365

Austin Ekeler – RB, Los Angeles Chargers

Austin Ekeler has not scored a touchdown since Week 10, and for Ekeler, that’s just plain weird.

Ekeler has scored 43 total touchdowns since the beginning of the 2021-22 season, a total of 42 games.

Against the Denver Broncos, a two touchdown day is within reach for Ekeler.

In goes @AustinEkeler for his 2nd touchdown!

📺: #LACvsNYJ on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/wPNNRv5rzw pic.twitter.com/z3zhXg5Jdl

— NFL (@NFL) November 7, 2023

The Broncos’ have the NFL’s 32nd-ranked rushing defense (149.7 ypg), 24th-ranked passing defense (252.4 ypg), and the 29th-ranked scoring defense (25.2 ppg).

Also, Denver has allowed 14 total touchdowns to running backs in 12 games, third-most in the NFL.

Ekeler has scored seven touchdowns against the Broncos, the most against any team.

The Los Angeles Chargers have scored just 16 points in their last two games combined.

Whether it be in the passing game or the running game, the Chargers need to get the versatility of Ekeler more involved in their offense.

Pick: Ekeler – OVER 1.5 Touchdowns

Best Odds: (+480) FanDuel