The total of the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs Week 14 matchup is currently at 48.5.

This total would make for the lowest total set in a meeting between these two teams since November of 2017, when the starting quarterbacks were Tyrod Taylor for Buffalo and Alex Smith for Kansas City. The total in that contest was 47.

Since Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have taken over under center for their respective teams, a meeting between the Bills and Chiefs has not had a total set lower than 54.

Despite the slightly softened outlook on these typically high-scoring offenses, enough offense should be manufactured to entertain.

For more information on the current state of the Buffalo Bills, I highly recommend this article about the Bills’ point differential from Michael Salfino.

For this showdown at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, I’ll construct a Same Game Parlay on FanDuel.

Josh Allen – UNDER 253.5 Passing Yards, OVER 32.5 Rushing Yards, Anytime Touchdown

I’m not a fan of any quarterback putting up a big passing yards total against the Chiefs defense.

Kansas City has allowed only four quarterbacks to throw for 250+ yards all season, with the most being 284 from Kirk Cousins of the Minnesota Vikings back in Week 5.

BestOdds EDGE projects Allen to finish under his passing yards prop this week.

Allen is averaging 267.8 passing yards per game this season, but he could fall well shy of that average against the Chiefs 5th-ranked passing defense, allowing only 201.8 passing yards per game.

Although Allen’s passing numbers could be held in check by Kansas City’s defensive secondary, he should be able to find some success on the ground.

Allen is averaging 28.5 rushing yards per game, and has scored nine rushing touchdowns, and the Chiefs’ defense has been more vulnerable to the running game in 2023.

Kansas City’s defense is allowing an average of 114.7 rushing yards per game (19th in NFL), and first downs may be easier to come by if Allen decides to tuck and run.

The Chiefs allow a rushing first down percentage of 34.9% (20th in NFL), but strangely, a 47.4% rushing first down percentage at home.

To move the ball down field against Kansas City, the blueprint says to keep the ball on the ground.

Also, with nine rushing touchdowns in 12 games, I expect Allen to push another across the goal line.

Pick: Allen – UNDER 253.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Pick: Allen – OVER 32.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Pick: Allen – Anytime Touchdown (+190 FanDuel)

Patrick Mahomes – OVER 261.5 Passing Yards, OVER 1.5 TD Passes

The Chiefs’ passing offense is ranked 9th in the NFL, averaging 263.2 passing yards per game, a decent number for most teams, but a somewhat disappointing result for a Mahomes-led offense.

Also, the Bills’ defense has allowed only 222.8 passing yards per game this season (10th in NFL), so Mahomes will have his work cut out for him.

The main reason I believe Mahomes will go over on his passing props is because there are too many questions lingering in Kansas City’s backfield.

Starting running back Isiah Pacheco has already been ruled out, and the Chief’s running game will most likely be substituted for a series of shorter screen passes to receivers like Rashee Rice.

I also expect to see plenty of passing plays involving running back Jerick McKinnon.

McKinnon has produced a paltry 2.3 yards per carry, but he has already scored three receiving touchdowns on only 19 receptions this season and is averaging a respectable 8.16 yards per reception from the backfield.

Never forget when Mahomes & Kelce walked off the Bills in the 2021 divisional playoffs.#13Seconds #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/RZuCFIzaI0

— Chris (@chiefs_outsider) December 2, 2023

In three career regular season games against Buffalo, Mahomes is averaging 278.3 passing yards per game, and has thrown for six touchdowns.

Mahomes throwing for 278 and two touchdowns is certainly within reach here, especially if the Chiefs are playing from a deficit.

Pick: Mahomes – OVER 261.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Pick: Mahomes – OVER 1.5 TD Passes (-210 FanDuel)

Travis Kelce – OVER 6.5 Receptions, OVER 69.5 Receiving Yards

The success of the Chiefs’ passing offense runs through tight end Travis Kelce.

While Mahomes can spread it around to ancillary targets, like Justin Watson and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, peppering Kelce with targets is the best path forward.

When Kelce receives less than 24% of the target share, Kansas City is only averaging 19.1 points per game.

When Kelce receives more than 24% of the target share, the Chiefs average 30.5 points per game.

This graph from BestOdds EDGE visually presents Kelce’s targets over the season.

Clearly, over the last few weeks, Kelce has seen less targets than usual.

In a closely set contest, with a spread of only 1.5 favoring the home team Chiefs, I’d expect a spike in targets to Kelce.

The Cincinnati Bengals defeated the Bills in Week 9, 24-18, and in that contest, Bengals tight ends saw 29.5% of the target share from Joe Burrow and tallied a combined 10 catches for 101 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

The Mahomes-Kelce connection will need to be firing on all cylinders to beat Buffalo.

Pick: Kelce – OVER 6.5 Receptions (-114 FanDuel)

Pick: Kelce – OVER 69.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)

FanDuel – SGP Legs	Odds
Josh Allen – UNDER 253.5 Passing Yards	-114
Josh Allen – OVER 32.5 Rushing Yards	-114
Josh Allen – Anytime Touchdown	+190
Patrick Mahomes – OVER 261.5 Passing Yards	-114
Patrick Mahomes – OVER 1.5 TD Passes	-210
Travis Kelce – OVER 6.5 Receptions	-114
Travis Kelce – OVER 69.5 Receiving Yards	-114
Bills vs. Chiefs SGP Odds	+3222

A winning $10 wager on this Bills-Chiefs Same Game Parlay would payout $332.29!

Betting NFL Same Game Parlays

Same game parlay is just like a regular NFL parlay bet, except all bet selections come from different wagers within one football game.

The benefit of an NFL same game parlay is achieved by combining multiple bets so you can go for bigger wins as the odds increase.

The more bet selections you add, the more difficult it is to win, but the odds also greatly increase so is the potential winning amount.

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