NFL Week 13 Odds

There are six teams on a bye for Week 13.

No Bears, Bills, Giants, Raiders, Ravens, or Vikings this week.

Which gives us a grand total of 13 games in Week 13.

That should be lucky for bettors this weekend!

This week also features plenty of Super Bowl rematches, which may be of interest to all of the NFL historians out there.

Miami and Washington meet in rematches for both Super Bowl VII and Super Bowl XVII, Pittsburgh and Arizona meet in a Super Bowl XLIII, and Kansas City and Green Bay meet in a rematch of Super Bowl I.

Regardless of any unlucky numbers or historical matchups, let’s sift through the Week 13 slate and find some valuable wagering options.

As always, with the best odds! 

Thursday Night Football

Seattle Seahawks (+9.5, +350 ML) vs. Dallas Cowboys (-9, -417 ML)

Total: Over 46.5 (-105 | FanDuel), Under 46.5 (-112 | DraftKings)

The Dallas Cowboys have been rolling, winning their last three games by a combined score of 127-37.

The Seattle Seahawks have been the opposite, losing three of their last four games by a combined score of 61-111.

Dallas is currently 8-3, and all eight wins have come against teams that are under .500.

At home this week against the 6-5 Seahawks, it could be a tricky spot for the Cowboys.

In only two games this season has Dallas faced a team that is above .500, and in both games, the Cowboys failed to cover, losing to the 49ers as 3.5-point underdogs, 42-10, and losing to the Eagles as 3.5-point underdogs, 28-23.

I think Dallas will win, I think, but Seattle at 9.5-point underdogs seems like a solid wager.

The Cowboys’ schedule has been soft, and the Seahawks are sneaky tough.

Just ask the Detroit Lions about their Week 2 overtime loss to Seattle at Ford Field in Detroit.

Pick: Seahawks (+9.5) | Best Odds: (-110) DraftKings

Sunday, December 3rd – 1:00 p.m. EST

Los Angeles Chargers (-6, -250 ML) vs. New England Patriots (+6, +220 ML)

Total: Over 39.5 (-112 | FanDuel), Under 40.5 (-110 | BetMGM)

This is a strong rebound spot for the Los Angeles Chargers.

The New England Patriots’ defense has allowed just 10 points in each of their two games, but that was against the Indianapolis Colts and New York Giants.

The Pats’ defense is also allowing only 236.6 passing yards per game (15th in NFL) and 94.1 rushing yards per game (7th in NFL), but they still relinquish an average of 22.5 points on average (21st in NFL).

New England’s offense continues to turn the ball over at a very high rate, putting opponents in great field position far too often.

Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler should find a way to capitalize drives with fortuitous starting positions.

Pick: Chargers (-6) | Best Odds: (-110) Caesars

Detroit Lions (-4, -198 ML) vs. New Orleans Saints (+4, +170 ML)

Total: Over 45.5 (-110 | FanDuel), Under 46 (-108 | DraftKings)

The Detroit Lions were picked apart by Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving, allowing Love to throw for 268 yards and three touchdowns.

The Lions’ weak defensive secondary could benefit from injuries to the New Orleans Saints’ receiving corps, with Chris Olave questionable with concussion symptoms and Michael Thomas already on injured reserve.

While the Saints’ defense has allowed only 20.2 points per game this season (8th in NFL), they have allowed 124 rushing yards per game (23rd in NFL).

This could be a big game for Detroit’s running back tandem of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Comparing New Orleans’ defense and the Lions’ offense on BestOdds EDGE tells me that the ground game for Detroit could be a problem.

I’m expecting a more conservative game from the Lions, and a typically low-scoring output from New Orleans, who has scored less than 20 points in each of their last two games.

The Saints have failed to score more than 20 points in seven of 11 games this season.

This feels like an under in New Orleans.

Pick: Under 46 | Best Odds: (-108) DraftKings

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, -145 ML) vs. New York Jets (+3, +125 ML)

Total: Over 34 (-108 | DraftKings), Under 34 (-109 | BetRivers)

If Tim Boyle is the Jets’ quarterback moving forward, I don’t think I’ll place another wager on New York this season.

Tim Boyle with precise accuracy to convert a Hail Mary TD 🙌 pic.twitter.com/qzz8urYKab

— Underdog Fantasy (@UnderdogFantasy) November 24, 2023

The Jets have a decent defense, and they may steal a game here or there, but it’s not enough for me to back them.

The weak spot in New York’s defense is stopping the run, as opponents average 140.3 rushing yards per game (31st in NFL).

On the other sideline, the Atlanta Falcons excel at the run, averaging 139.3 rushing yards per game (4th in NFL).

Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and the Falcons’ running game is going to flatten the Jets’ defense in Week 13.

And Tim Boyle and this anemic New York offense will fail to come back from any deficit.

Pick: Falcons (-2.5) | Best Odds: (-115) FanDuel

Arizona Cardinals (+5.5, +215 ML) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, -240 ML)

Total: Over 40 (-110 | Caesars), Under 41 (-110 | BetMGM)

In the first game after the Pittsburgh Steelers fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the Steelers tallied 421 yards of total offense against the Cincinnati Bengals.

While that’s not the most impressive number, it was the first time Pittsburgh gained over 400 yards of total offense in 58 games.

Pickett threw for 278 yards, and Najee Harris ran for 99 yards, both season-highs.

This is the Kenny Pickett I remember seeing in the preseason 🚀pic.twitter.com/36qZD0j2hA

— SteelYinzer (@YinzerofSteel07) November 28, 2023

Facing another weak defense in Week 13, the Steelers’ offense should continue its growth.

The Arizona Cardinals have allowed 27.8 points per game in their last five contests, and Pittsburgh may want to show off their new-look offense in front of the home crowd at Acrisure Stadium.

Pick: Steelers (-5.5) | Best Odds: (-110) DraftKings

Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, -126 ML) vs. Tennessee Titans (+1.5, +108 ML)

Total: Over 42.5 (-110 | BetRivers), Under 43 (-110 | bet365)

After Tennessee handed the starting QB job to rookie Will Levis, things started off well.

Levis threw for four touchdowns in a win against the Atlanta Falcons, and the future of the Titans’ franchise was set.

Since that game, Tennessee is 1-3, with the only win being last week’s narrow 17-10 win over the lowly Carolina Panthers.

A rookie quarterback like Levis under center will certainly come with growing pains.

The good news for the Titans this week, is that they will host a Colts team that has a subpar defense.

Here’s a quick look at how these defenses stack up, courtesy of BestOdds EDGE:

Indianapolis’ defense has been awful against the run, and Derrick Henry could be in for a big workload.

Although the Titans have not been scoring at a good pace, averaging only 13.25 points over their last four games, they should look a little better this week against a porous Colts defense.

Pick: Tennessee Moneyline | Best Odds: (+108) BetRivers

Miami Dolphins (-9.5, -450 ML) vs. Washington Commanders (+9.5, +370 ML)

Total: Over 49.5 (-110 | BetRivers), Under 50.5 (-112 | DraftKings)

It’s Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins vs. Sam Howell and the Commanders.

This game features the NFL’s current passing yards leader.

Which is Sam Howell.

But, against Washington’s 30th-ranked passing defense, Tagovailoa may have the biggest passing game here.

Here’s how opposing quarterbacks have done against the Commanders’ defense over the last three games:

WAS Opponent	Quarterback	QB Results
Week 10: Seattle	Geno Smith	31/47, 369 Yds, 2 TD
Week 11: New York (N)	Tommy DeVito	18/26, 246 Yds, 3 TD
Week 12: Dallas	Dak Prescott	22/32, 331 Yds, 4 TD

The combo of Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill could produce some electric numbers in Week 13.

Miami is 5-1 against the spread when favored by six or more points. The Dolphins take care of business against inferior teams, and I expect that to continue.

Pick: Miami (-9.5) | Best Odds: (-110) FanDuel

Denver Broncos (+3.5, +167 ML) vs. Houston Texans (-3.5, -184 ML)

Total: Over 46.5 (-110 | Caesars), Under 47.5 (-110 | DraftKings)

Somehow, someway, the Broncos keep winning.

After starting the season 1-5, they have now won five straight games.

The @Broncos are rolling on a 5-game win streak. 👀 pic.twitter.com/XiWXgAPoVh

— NFL (@NFL) November 27, 2023

The Broncos went from a player in the “Caleb Williams Sweepstakes” to “Playoff Contender” pretty damn quick.

Something about this run from Denver feels unsustainable.

Having four of their five wins come at home may have helped, but now they must travel to Houston to take on C.J. Stroud and the Texans.

This is still a Broncos team that allowed 70 points to the Dolphins in Week 3 and 31 points to a Zach Wilson-led Jets team in Week 5.

Denver has three-straight road games coming up, starting with this week, and I believe the slide will start soon.

The Broncos are still 23rd in passing defense, 32nd in rushing defense, and 29th in scoring defense.

I’m not going to be tricked by this mirage.

Pick: Texans (-3.5) | Best Odds: (-105) Caesars

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Carolina Panthers (+5.5, +210 ML) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5, -238 ML)

Total: Over 37 (-109 | BetRivers), Under 37.5 (-110 | FanDuel)

Well, after their 1-10 start, the Carolina Panthers have fired their head coach Frank Reich.

It’s been a frustrating season for rookie quarterback Bryce Young, but he could have a nice Week 13 against the Buccaneers’ 31st-ranked passing defense (286.5 passing yards/game).

Carolina is only averaging 15.7 points per game, but with the head coach being fired, it’s a turning point in the season; which is best exhibited by putting points on the scoreboard.

Tampa Bay’s defense has been allowing a decent chunk of points lately, allowing an average of 24.6 points per game over their last five contests, and that includes a 20-6 win over Tennessee.

The Bucs keep finding a way to lose, dropping six of their last seven games, and while I do believe that they’ll find a way to win this game, they may not cover the spread.

Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield was a little banged up in last week’s contest, and the Bucs may play this matchup against a one-win Panthers team more conservatively than usual.

Pick: Panthers (+5.5) | Best Odds: (-110) BetRivers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, -145 ML) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5, +130 ML)

Total: Over 46.5 (-110 | BetMGM), Under 46.5 (-105 | FanDuel)

A potential NFC Championship preview in Week 13!

The 49ers have won three consecutive games coming out of their Week 9 bye, averaging 30.7 points over the three wins.

The Eagles have won five consecutive games after their surprising loss to the Jets in Week 6, averaging 31 points over their winning streak.

It’s interesting to see Philadelphia as a home underdog while holding a record of 10-1, but if any team could be favored over them, it would be San Francisco.

BestOdds EDGE shows how comparable these offenses really are:

As long as these offenses remain red hot, I’ll avoid taking a side and back the over.

Pick: Over 46.5 | Best Odds: (-110) BetMGM

Cleveland Browns (+4, +170 ML) vs. Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, -175 ML)

Total: Over 39 (-109 | BetRivers), Under 39.5 (-108 | DraftKings)

The Browns always find a way to be the Browns, and they did it again last week against the Denver Broncos.

The Harrison Bryant QB sneek is dead- bury it #DawgPound pic.twitter.com/haIpsaok1t

— Mac🦬 (@tha_buffalo) November 26, 2023

After producing a scoring average of 29.75 in Weeks 7 thru 10, Cleveland’s offense appears to have hit rock-bottom, scoring 25 points in their last two games, combined.

Maybe we’ll see the recently signed Joe Flacco at quarterback for the Browns this week.

The Los Angeles Rams have won back-to-back games, against their NFC West rivals of Arizona and Seattle, and have slowly got their offense moving once again.

The Rams scored 37 points against Arizona last week, but similar results may be difficult to come by against Cleveland’s defense.

Although the Browns offense is a bit of a mess, their defense continues to produce solid results.

Cleveland is first in the NFL in passing defense (163.5 passing yards/game) and seventh in scoring defense (19 points allowed/game).

If Matthew Stafford struggles to move his offense, I like the Browns to hang around in this one.

Pick: Browns (+4) | Best Odds: (-110) Caesars

Sunday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, -285 ML) vs. Green Bay Packers (+6.5, +240 ML)

Total: Over 42 (-108 | DraftKings), Under 42 (-109 | BetRivers)

The Green Bay Packers pulled off a surprise victory over the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving, winning 29-22.

The Lions’ iffy passing defense allowed Packers’ quarterback Jordan Love to continue his strong run.

Here’s how Jordan Love has played over the last three games:

GB Opponent	Love’s Results
Week 10: Pittsburgh	21/40, 289 Yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Week 11: Los Angeles (A)	27/40, 322 Yds, 2 TD
Week 12: Detroit	22/32, 268 Yds, 3 TD

That’s an average of 293 passing yards per game and seven total touchdown passes in three games.

The one thing all of three of those teams have in common is weak passing defenses. Pittsburgh is ranked 25th, Los Angeles is ranked 32nd, and Detroit is ranked 21st.

The bad news for Love is the Kansas City Chiefs passing defense is ranked 4th in the NFL, allowing an average of only 195.9 passing yards per game.

Green Bay’s offense is being carried by a young quarterback that has benefited from a series of soft matchups over the last few weeks.

That comes to an end at Lambeau Field on Sunday Night Football.

Pick: Chiefs (-6) | Best Odds: (-110) DraftKings

Monday Night Football

Cincinnati Bengals (+8.5, +328 ML) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5, -375 ML)

Total: Over 37.5 (-110 | BetMGM), Under 38.5 (-110 | Caesars)

Since Jake Browning has taken over for the injured Joe Burrow, the Bengals have only scored a total of 20 points.

Browning being the guy under center has zapped the explosiveness from Cincinnati’s offense.

Jacksonville’s offense still has plenty of potential to post a big number, and has very few injuries on the offensive side.

Cincinnati has one of the worst offensive lines protecting a backup QB. I don’t like that.

I’m not going to overthink this one.

I’m taking the healthier Jaguars at home on Monday Night Football.

Pick: Jaguars (-8.5) | Best Odds: (-109) BetRivers