NFL Player Prop Bets Week 13

The largest margin of victory in Week 12 was a 35-point win for the Dallas Cowboys over the Washington Commanders.

In the Cowboys’ 45-10 win, quarterback Dak Prescott threw for 331 yards and four touchdowns.

This week, things don’t get any easier for the Commanders as their defense will attempt to slow down Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and the Miami Dolphins.

Maybe Washington will lose two consecutive games by 30 or more points?

For Week 13, let’s kick around some potentially profitable player props.

All player prop bets are presented with the best odds!

Kenny Pickett – QB, Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ Offense: Now Under New Management!

Last week, Kenny Pickett threw for a season-high 278 passing yards, and while that’s not a super exciting number, it does show a sign of progress from the Steelers’ offense in their first game after the firing of offensive coordinator Matt Canada.

One of the best @steelers offensive performances of the season:

Kenny Pickett: 24/33, 278 pass yards
Najee Harris: 15 carries, 99 rush yards, 1 TD
Pat Freiermuth: 9 catches, 120 receiving yards pic.twitter.com/fBuUhVtvqX

— NFL (@NFL) November 27, 2023

Most sportsbooks have Pickett throwing for just under 200 yards, but this week, against the Arizona Cardinals defense, 200 passing yards is not out of the question for Pickett.

Arizona’s defense has allowed only 237.8 passing yards per game (16th in NFL), but that number would be much higher if their opponents didn’t abandon their passing games in the second half.

With this low-scoring Pittsburgh offense, I don’t see them abandoning the passing game.

In the Cardinals first six games, they allowed an average of 266.3 passing yards per game, and those six games included a 321-yard effort from New York Giants’ QB Daniel Jones.

In their last six games, Arizona has only allowed an average of 209.3 passing yards per game, but the last six games included a 94-yard dud from the Atlanta Falcons Ridder/Heinicke quarterback combo and a 157-yard day from Baltimore Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson.

Lopsided matchups and opponents not asking more of their quarterback has made the Cardinals’ passing defense appear better on paper.

Pickett can prove that this Arizona defense is beatable through the air.

Pick: Pickett – OVER 199.5 Passing Yards

Best Odds: (-114) FanDuel

David Montgomery – RB, Detroit Lions

Since his return from injury, David Montgomery has looked healthy and effective over the last three weeks, picking up 263 rushing yards (87.6 yards per game) on 39 carries (6.74 yards per carry).

Montgomery has a solid opportunity to continue his strong stretch against the New Orleans Saints in Week 13, as the Saints’ defense is allowing 104.4 rushing yards per game (19th in NFL).

BestOdds EDGE projects Montgomery to surpass his line of 62.5 rushing yards on FanDuel.

Although the Detroit Lions will give some carries to No. 2 running back Jahmyr Gibbs, New Orleans’ defense has shown that there is enough room for two runners to succeed.

In Week 8, Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss of the Indianapolis Colts combined for 161 rushing yards and just last week, the Falcons running combo of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier combined for 155 rushing yards.

Montgomery has been hot and the Saints’ weaker defensive front will not cool him down.

Pick: Montgomery – OVER 62.5 Rushing Yards

Best Odds: (-114) FanDuel

Tyreek Hill – WR, Miami Dolphins

No receiver has ever won the NFL MVP Award, and even a kicker has won the NFL MVP before.

That was Washington kicker Mark Moseley back in 1982.

Speaking of the Washington Commanders, that’s who Tyreek Hill and the Miami Dolphins will be facing this week.

The Commanders have allowed the most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers this season, so Hill should be able to find some open looks and green grass ahead.

BestOdds EDGE projects Hill to exceed 100 receiving yards, projecting him to finish with 105 yards.

With the way Hill has been playing, and how BestOdds EDGE views his matchup, I can’t take the under on Hill.

Hill is averaging 120.4 receiving yards per game, and Hill has eclipsed the 100-yard mark in seven of 11 games this season.

There’s little Washington’s defense can do to keep Hill from making that eight of 12 games.

Hill has 88 receptions for 1,324 yards and 10 touchdowns this season with six games remaining on the schedule.

Potentially the first 2,000-yard receiver, Hill’s name should be brought up regularly in MVP conversations.

The name “Hill” and the number “10” is a common sight for pursuing defenders, and this week, the Commanders get to experience that sight. 

Pick: Hill – OVER 98.5 Receiving Yards

Best Odds: (-114) BetRivers