Despite three games scheduled on Thanksgiving and one Friday, Sunday provides the bulk of the NFL’s Week 13 action with 11 games.

We’ve shopped for early lines and provided two player props for a pair of noon kickoffs: Colts vs. Patriots and Vikings vs. Cardinals.

Remember to bet responsibly and keep a careful eye on your bankroll.

Read our Week 13 NFL odds and parlay picks for more information on Sunday’s slate.

Week 13 Player Props

The odds for both picks were correct at the time of writing. They were also shopped across all legal U.S. sportsbooks.

Anthony Richardson (IND) over 12.5 completions (-108 at FanDuel)

The fourth-overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft has endured a whirlwind start to his NFL career. Richardson missed nearly the entirety of the 2023 season after suffering an AC joint sprain in Week 5.

This year, he missed Weeks 5 and 6 due to injury and was eventually benched for veteran Joe Flacco after a loss to Houston in Week 8.

Flacco was eventually benched after two straight losses, and the reins to the sleigh were handed back to Richardson.

Peaking at his box scores and game logs doesn’t tell a convincing story about why he’ll beat the prop this week.

In fact, he’s only completed 13 or more passes in two of seven contests this year.

He’s clearly struggled overall, but he’s faced some of the best defenses against the pass.

Richardson has faced the Texans twice, who rank No. 1 in the NFL against completion percentage, allowing a percentage of just 56.19%.

The unit is also third-best in the league for passer rating, allowing opposing quarterbacks to have an average rating of just 81.3.

Passer rating takes into account the following stats: Pass attempts, completions, passing yards, touchdown passes and interceptions.

Defenses Richardson has Faced (Completion %)

Week/Opponent	Completions (Attempts)	Comp % allowed by Opp	Rank
1. Houston	9 (19)	56.19%	1
2. Green Bay	17 (34)	65.20%	16
3. Chicago	10 (20)	62.85%	7
4. Pittsburgh*	3 (4)	61.54%	3
7. Miami	10 (24)	63.66%	12
8. Houston	10 (32)	56.19%	1
11. New York Jets	20 (30)	60.52%	2
12. Detroit	11 (28)	61.62%	4

Note: * denotes Richardson was injured and left late during the first quarter against the Steelers.

As the table above indicates, the former Florida Gator has played against stout defenses in terms of completion percentage allowed. All but two are ranked seventh or better.

Richardson’s Opponents vs. Passer Rating

Week/Opponent	Rank	Opp. Average Passer Rating
1. Houston	3	81.3
2. Green Bay	12	86.6
3. Chicago	8	84.1
4. Pittsburgh*	2	76.9
7. Miami	9	84.6
8. Houston	3	81.3
11. New York Jets	14	87.7
12. Detroit	1	72.7

Note: * denotes Richardson was injured and left late during the first quarter against the Steelers. 

As the data showcases, every defense Richardson has faced, aside from the Jets and Packers, has been ranked ninth or better for the category.

Four of Richardson’s contests have been against elite defenses in terms of total completions allowed.

New York has surrendered the fewest completions per game (17), followed by Houston (18.2). Chicago is not too far behind in sixth place (18.5).

This week, the 22-year-old will take on the Patriots, who are much worse defending quarterbacks.

Patriots Defensive Rankings vs. QBs

• Opponent completions per game: 20.8 (Ranked 15th)
• Opponent completion percentage: 66.22% (Ranked 19th)
• Opponent average passer rating: 102.1 (Ranked 28th)

New England is also 11th-worst against the pass (surrendering 224.4 yards per game).

Richardson has played better after his brief benching.

He had 20 completions against the Jets and should’ve had more than 11 last week versus the Lions, as the tweet below highlights his team’s penalties and drops.

Anthony Richardson on Sunday:

-Dropped TD
-Incomplete dime down the sideline b/c Dulin only got one foot down
-Gains of 30, 21, 21, and 7 yards nullified by penalty pic.twitter.com/qSkea4OlLS

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 25, 2024

According to Covers.com, Indy’s offensive line is graded as the fourth-best in the NFL, offering Richardson excellent protection, while New England’s linebackers rank fourth-worst in defending receivers.

FanDuel Sportsbook was the only bookmaker offering this prop at the time of writing.

Model Projections for Richardson’s Completions

• 4for4.com: 18.3
• Action Network: 16.5
• Numberfire: 16.35
• FantasyPros: 16.1
• ESPN: 16
• BettingPros: 15.2
• Covers: 14.4

T.J. Hockenson (MIN) over 3.5 recs (-132 at FanDuel)

The Pro Bowl tight end is 11 months removed from his ACL and MCL tears, which caused him to miss the first eight weeks of this season.

Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell has slowly eased him back into action, but last week against Chicago, the training wheels were removed.

Hockenson played a season-high 43 snaps and ran 30 routes, which was close to his average of 31.93 per game last year.

Ramp up period for TJ Hockenson (ACL) appears to be over. Route rate since return:

Week 9: 61%
Week 10: 71%
Week 11: 57%
Week 12: 86% pic.twitter.com/tu5dflLRGC

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 25, 2024

The former No. 8 overall pick (2022) recorded 114 yards (a season-high) on seven receptions and was targeted nine times for the second time in the four contests he’s played since returning from injury.

Hockenson looks back to full speed, causing this 3.5-reception total to appear lower than it should be.

The -132 odds at FanDuel for the over are a superb value, thanks to other bookmakers listing him at much worse odds.

Odds Comparison for Hockenson to Record over 3.5 Receptions

Sportsbook	Odds
FanDuel	-132
DraftKings	-145
Caesars	-148
BetMGM	-150
ESPNBet	-185
bet365	-200

Note: BetRivers wasn’t displaying odds at the time of writing. Other bookmakers list his reception total at 4.5.

Last year, between three quarterbacks (Kirk Cousins, Josh Dobbs and Nick Mullens), Hockenson surpassed 3.5 catches in 14/15 contests (93.33%).

He even passed it with four receptions in Week 16 when he suffered his season-ending injury in the third quarter.

The 27-year-old averaged 6.33 receptions per game and 8.46 targets last year. He also recorded at least five catches in 12 out of the 15 outings (80%).

Hockenson has been targeted on 24.8% of routes run and will face the Cardinals inside a dome, which is great for Minnesota’s passing game. 

According to Covers.com, Hockenson has an improved adjusted completion percentage this year from 75.2% to 81.3%.

This is mainly due to his quarterback, Sam Darnold, who is an upgrade from Dobbs and Mullens.

Arizona allows just 4.73 catches to opposing tight end rooms but hasn’t played many teams that consistently use their tight ends as pass catchers.

Tight ends such as George Kittle (eight receptions), Will Dissly (eight receptions) and Jonnu Smith (four receptions) have seen more success thanks to having higher usages.

Minnesota opened as a 1.5-point underdog, implying a balanced game script with plenty of passing since oddsmakers expect it to be a close game.

Darnold has averaged 34.5 pass attempts over the past month, which is also a good sign for Hockenson.

Model Projections for Hockenson’s Receptions

• Covers: 5.2
• 4for4.com: 5.0
• Action Network: 4.70
• FantasyPros: 4.70
• ESPN: 4.70
• BettingPros: 4.7
• Numberfire: 4.69
• RotoWire: 4.47