NFL Week 13 Parlay

Last week, the week of Thanksgiving, I gave thanks to the Cleveland Browns.

And in return, Cleveland busted my Week 12 Parlay, the only leg of the parlay that failed to hit.

Thanks a lot, Browns.

For this week, the structure of the parlay remains the same, one underdog moneyline, two spreads, one over, and one under.

This week’s parlay will be placed on Caesars.

Moneyline – Cleveland Browns (+170) vs. Los Angeles Rams

I’m going back to the well.

Wish me luck.

The Cleveland Browns’ defense is first in the NFL in passing defense, and if they can stymie the movement of Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams’ passing attack, I like their chances.

The Cleveland Browns defense has allowed 141 first downs this season, the league average is 215…

It's the fewest allowed thru 12 weeks in the PFF era 🤯 pic.twitter.com/b30GyuPgnS

— PFF CLE Browns (@PFF_Browns) November 29, 2023

The Browns allowed 29 points to the Denver Broncos last week, but they were without star cornerback Denzel Ward and linebacker Anthony Walker; two key pieces that are ‘questionable’ for this week, but are likely to suit up.

Last week, the Rams posted 37 points on the scoreboard against the Arizona Cardinals, but running back Kyren Williams did most of the damage, rushing for 143 yards on 16 carries (8.9 yards per carry), and catching six passes for 61 yards and two touchdowns.

That Christian McCaffrey-esque effort from Williams will not be duplicated against Cleveland’s defense.

The Browns need a little more from their quarterback play, specifically rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

Or maybe it will be Joe Flacco’s turn under center?

Either way, against the Los Angeles’ middle-of-the-pack defense, Cleveland could steal a victory at SoFi Stadium this Sunday.

The Rams have played both the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers this season, and lost both games.

I’m expecting Los Angeles to go 0-3 against stingy AFC North opponents after Week 13.

Pick: Browns Moneyline (+170)

Spread – Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5 | -110) vs. New England Patriots

The Los Angeles Chargers continue to lose, dropping three straight games entering Week 13, and losing five of their last seven.

The five losses have come against some respectable teams (Cowboys, Chiefs, Lions, Packers, Ravens), but if the Chargers drop their fourth straight game against the 2-9 New England Patriots, head coach Brandon Staley’s hot seat will be charred to a crisp.

The two wins from Los Angeles in the last seven games came against the Chicago Bears and New York Jets, and in both cases, the Chargers covered the spread.

Once again, Los Angeles faces a team that is much inferior on paper, and as favorites by less than a touchdown, I’d expect them to cover here.

BestOdds EDGE’s insight tells me the Patriots are an absolute mess against the spread.

The Patriots are 2-9 against the spread all season, and they haven’t covered a spread in their last four games.

New England is also 1-3 ATS when their opponent is favored by more than three points.

There’s a lot of confusion with the Patriots’ offense right now, especially the quarterback position.

Just look at the difference between Los Angeles and New England’s offenses, according to BestOdds EDGE:

Even against a weak Los Angeles defense, New England’s offense can’t be trusted.

The Patriot have scored only 13 points in their last two games combined, and that was against the Indianapolis Colts and New York Giants.

Flat out awful.

Bill Belichick’s squad won’t be able to keep up with Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler.

Who knows? Maybe next year Bill Belichick will replace Brandon Staley as the Chargers’ head coach?

Pick: Chargers (-5.5)

Spread – Pittsburgh (-5.5 | -110) vs. Arizona Cardinals

This insight from BestOdds EDGE gives me a little more confidence in the Pittsburgh Steelers covering the spread here.

Another thing giving me confidence is the offensive adjustments that Pittsburgh has already undergone since former offensive coordinator Matt Canada’s departure.

Steelers’ quarterback Kenny Pickett threw for a season-high 278 passing yards and running back Najee Harris ran for a season-high 99 yards.

Pittsburgh gained 421 yards of total offense, their first time reaching that number in 58 games.

The Steelers offense was cooking on Sunday 👨‍🍳 pic.twitter.com/K98f0yRDpQ

— PFF PIT Steelers (@PFF_Steelers) November 28, 2023

Yards are nice, but points are better.

The Arizona Cardinals have allowed an average of 26.8 points per game, 31st in the NFL, so this could be the week that the Steelers’ offense puts up an eye-popping number compared to their typically low-scoring standard.

Pittsburgh’s defense has also done a great job of keeping teams out of the endzone, allowing only 18.6 points per game (5th in NFL).

Since Kyler Murray’s return, the Cardinals are averaging only 18.3 points in three games.

In the eight games prior to Murray’s return, Arizona averaged 18.9 points per game.

Murray may not be the difference-maker the Cardinals were hoping to get back.

Pick: Steelers (-5.5)

Over – Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (o38 | -110)

Although primetime games have been hitting the under quite often, this Monday Night Football matchup feels like an over to me.

38 total points is relatively low for an NFL game, with most games being set in the 40s, and Jacksonville’s offense has been scoring at a decent pace lately.

The Jaguars are scoring 23.1 points per game this season, but they are averaging 24.8 over the last six games, which includes a three-point clunker against the San Francisco 49ers.

With the Niners clunker excluded, Jacksonville is averaging 29.25 points over their last five wins.

The Jaguars could score roughly 75 percent of the points needed to hit the over on Monday, which is 29.75.

Which means we’d only need about 9.25 points from the Cincinnati Bengals.

Jake Browning threw one touchdown pass against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, and in the Bengals loss, they collected just 10 points.

Cincy could actually score a few more points than that this week against a Jacksonville defense that is allowing an average of 20.5 points per game (12th in NFL).

Assuming the Browning-led Bengals won’t be as formidable an offense as some others, I expect Cincinnati to score less than 20 points.

I’ll say the final score will be 28-13, Jaguars.

Pick: Over 38

Under – Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers (u42 | -110)

In this somewhat odd football season, I don’t really like the Kansas City Chiefs offense, but I love their defense.

Kansas City is allowing only 195.9 passing yards per game (4th in NFL) and 16.5 points per game (3rd in NFL).

Kansas City’s defense is the only defense to hold every opponent to under 25 points this year. pic.twitter.com/25SXW0FWuJ

— fatty patty (@theonlydyl_) November 29, 2023

Against the roller coaster offense of the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field in November, I don’t see the Chiefs’ defense allowing too many points.

Green Bay averages 21 points per game, and at Lambeau Field, they are scoring an average of 18.2.

The Packers are not looking more comfortable at home.

Jordan Love could struggle for the first time in a few weeks against the most formidable defense he’s faced this season.

Even with Patrick Mahomes spiraling the pigskin on the other side, Kansas City’s offense has produced its most mediocre product in years.

The Chiefs are seventh in passing yards (268 passing yards/game) and 11th in scoring (23.3 points/game).

Those are decent numbers, just atypical of a Mahomes-led offense.

I’ll say the final score will be 24-13, Chiefs.

Pick: Under 42

NFL Week 13 Parlay Legs  – Caesars	Odds
Cleveland (ML) vs. LA Rams	+170
LA Chargers (-5.5) vs. New England	-110
Pittsburgh (-5.5) vs. Arizona	-110
OVER 38 (CIN vs. JAX)	-110
UNDER 42 (KC vs. GB)	-110
Parlay Odds	+3486

A $10 wager on this Week 13 Parlay would pay out $348.66!

How To Bet NFL Parlays

A parlay bet is a sports wager that combines several bets on one ticket alone.

Usually, you would go with moneyline bets but can use spreads, totals, and futures.

You can include props in many cases, and bettors can choose to link together just two sides, or up to 15 or more depending on the sportsbook.

Parlays are wholly customizable meaning bettors get to choose how big they want the odds to go.

How many sides will be included, and how difficult is it to make each leg of the parlay or do the same game parlays.

The way to establish consistency is to have just two or three sides and avoid chasing astronomical odds.

It’s fine to take your shot at a massive payout as well, but be sure to only risk the money you’re prepared to lose.

If you fancy regular bets, we got the NFL Week 13 Odds analysis worth checking out.