NFL Parlay Picks Week 13 2024
Lawrence Smelser
Updated: Nov 29, 2024
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Thanksgiving gave us plenty of exciting action, with the Lions, Cowboys and Packers all victorious in their matchups.
Detroit defeated Chicago 23-20, and the talk amongst the NFL world was the Bears’ poor clock management as time expired, which resulted in them failing to attempt a game-tying field goal.
Dallas was in control against New York in the afternoon, winning 27-20, and Green Bay comfortably routed Miami 30-17 at night.
With 11 games scheduled for Sunday, we’ve provided an alternate receiving yards parlay for two of the league’s most exciting wideouts: Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson and Pittsburgh’s George Pickens.
Remember to bet responsibly and carefully monitor your bankroll.
Read our Week 13 NFL odds and prop picks for more information on the upcoming action.
Note: Odds were correct at the time of writing.
Week 13 Alternate Receiving Yards Parlay
Justin Jefferson 60+ rec yds and George Pickens 50+ rec yds (-123 at bet365)
Justin Jefferson’s Outlook (60+ Receiving Yards)
The Vikings superstar wide receiver has slowed down after an electric start to the season.
Last week, against a stout Chicago defense, Jefferson recorded a season-low two receptions for 27 yards on five targets.
The former LSU Tiger is still second in the league with 939 receiving yards and averages 85.36 yards per game.
Jefferson’s five targets were also a surprising season low. He’s been targeted at least eight times and recorded 60 or more yards in 72.72% (8/11) of contests.
The former 22nd overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft has commanded a 30.6% target share in Minnesota’s offense.
This week, he faces a better matchup against Arizona’s defense, which has allowed eight receivers in its past nine outings to put up 60 or more yards.
A week ago, Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba recorded 77 yards and DK Metcalf ended just shy of the mark with 59.
The Cardinals rank 21st in the NFL defending the pass (surrendering 218.6 yards per game).
Minnesota opened as a 1.5-point favorite, indicating oddsmakers believe the contest will be close. This leads to a positive game script for Jefferson.
The Cardinals have also defended the run extremely well during the past three weeks, ranking fourth during that span, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry.
The Vikings might try and beat them through the air especially with Darnold averaging 34.5 pass attempts over the past month.
According to Covers.com, the Cardinals’ pass defense has allowed the seventh-highest adjusted completion percentage (68.8%) to wide receivers this campaign.
While cold weather, wind, snow and rain have to be factored in for other players around the league, Jefferson won’t face this problem since he’ll be playing at home in a dome (U.S. Bank Stadium).
U.S. bookmakers list Jefferson’s standard receiving total between 78.5 and 82.5 yards.
Many of the top NFL projection models predict Jefferson to enjoy a nice day through the air on Sunday.
Model Projections for Jefferson’s Receiving Yards
- Covers: 97.3
- 4for4.com: 94.3
- Numberfire: 87.83
- ESPN: 84.9
- FantasyPros: 84.9
- RotoWire: 82.87
- BettingPros: 80
- Action Network: 74.0
George Pickens’ Outlook (50+ Receiving Yards)
The alpha WR1 in Pittsburgh’s offense has thrived since Russell Wilson took over at quarterback in Week 7.
Since Week 7, Pickens has averaged 82.6 receiving yards per game, a significant increase from the first six weeks with Justin Fields when he averaged 60.5 yards.
The former Georgia Bulldog has recorded 50 or more yards in 5/6 (83.33%) contests with Wilson.
He fell two yards short last week with 48 in a snow-filled game against the Browns. If it weren’t for the weather, he likely would’ve hit the mark.
This week, he’ll face a Bengals defense that ranks 10th-worst against the pass (225.6 yards per game). The weather in Cincinnati is forecasted to be clear.
Cincinnati has allowed 15 receivers to record 50 or more yards in 11 contests. At least one opposing receiver has reached the milestone in all but one game (90.9%).
Over the past three weeks, the unit has allowed three receivers to record at least 105 yards.
According to Derek Brown of FantasyPros, the Bengals have given up the second-most receiving yards per contest since Week 7.
The game script could become pass-heavy in Pickens’ favor thanks to the Steelers opening up as 5-point underdogs to the Bengals.
As of Friday, the line moved down, making Cincinnati a three-point favorite.
Most bookmakers list Pickens’ standard receiving total between 73.5 and 75.5 yards.
Model Projections for Pickens’ Receiving Yards
- Numberfire: 80.36
- 4for4.com: 78.9
- ESPN: 77.6
- FantasyPros: 74.9
- Action Network: 71.0
- BettingPros: 70.0
- RotoWire: 69.6
- Covers: 68.9
Odds Comparison
This parlay’s best price (-123) was found at bet365 sportsbook. The difference in odds is featured in the table below.
Best Odds for this Parlay
Sportsbook | Odds |
bet365 | -123 |
FanDuel | -128 |
Caesars | -147 |
DraftKings | -147 |
Note: The bookmakers not included in this list didn’t offer the exact yardage totals for this parlay.
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