NFL Week 12 Odds

It’s Thanksgiving week in America, and as per usual, the NFL will dominate television viewership across the country this Thursday.

Three matchups are on the Week 12 slate for Thanksgiving day, featuring three divisional rivalries.

And for the first time, the NFL will feature a contest on Black Friday as well, with another divisional matchup between the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets.

It should be an interesting week in the NFL with about half of the 16 games in Week 12 having a spread of three points or less.

While turkey legs are good, kickers’ legs are pretty good, too.

Especially for bettors.

Let’s dig into Week 12 and find some covers, some overs, some unders, some spreads, and some underdogs in this cornucopia of action.

Thanksgiving Day

Green Bay Packers (+7.5, +310 ML) vs. Detroit Lions (-7.5, -345 ML)

Total: Over 46.5 (-110 | BetRivers), Under 47 (-110 | DraftKings)

The Green Bay Packers have been playing better football of late, winning two of their last three games, including last week’s win over the Los Angeles Chargers as underdogs.

Packers’ quarterback Jordan Love has stepped up as well, throwing two touchdown passes in each of the last two games and averaging 305.5 passing yards.

Here’s a quick look at both Green Bay and Detroit’s defenses, courtesy of BestOdds EDGE:

The Lions’ defensive secondary has been the weaker end of their defensive unit, and with Love currently playing the best football of his young career, the Packers may be able to hang around.

Green Bay’s defense has been allowing less points than Detroit on average, and the Lions failed to cover their 7.5-point spread as favorites against the Chicago Bears in Week 11.

I’m backing the Pack to keep this Thanksgiving Day game at Ford Field interesting.

Pick: Green Bay (+7.5) | Best Odds: (-110) FanDuel

Washington Commanders (+10.5, +450 ML) vs. Dallas Cowboys (-11, -550 ML)

Total: Over 48.5 (-110 | DraftKings), Under 48.5 (-110 | BetMGM)

The Commanders were 7.5-point favorites against the New York Giants last week and somehow lost by 12 points, 31-19.

Giants rookie QB Tommy DeVito threw for 246 yards and three touchdowns against this Washington defense, so what will Dak Prescott do in Week 12?

In the Cowboys’ win over the Carolina Panthers last week, Prescott threw for only 189 yards and two touchdowns, but that was all he needed to do before his eventual congratulatory benching in the easy victory for Dallas.

I foresee a similar scenario this week.

Sam Howell will continue to be the most sacked quarterback in the NFL, and he’ll spend more time on his back than a tryptophan-laden grandpa that has consumed too much turkey and stuffing.

The Cowboys are 7-3 against the spread this season, and they’ve covered in their last two games as double-digit favorites.

Back to the well for a large Dallas win in Week 12.

Pick: Cowboys (-11) | Best Odds: (-108) DraftKings

San Francisco 49ers (-7, -295 ML) vs. Seattle Seahawks (+7, +275 ML)

Total: Over 42.5 (-112 | FanDuel), Under 43.5 (-110 | DraftKings)

Seahawks’ quarterback Geno Smith is questionable with a triceps injury, so there is a chance that Drew Locke will be under center for Seattle on Thursday.

It appears even more likely Smith sits considering the short turnaround from Sunday action to Thursday for Seattle.

Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker also went down with an abdominal injury, and is questionable to play as well.

The 49ers have won each of their last two games by a combined score of 61-17, so I feel comfortable backing “Dirty Purdy and the Gold Diggers” on the spread.

That’s right, “Dirty Purdy and the Gold Diggers”. It’s what I’m calling the Niners now.

With the negative health reports coming out of Seattle, I can’t trust Drew Locke to take down a potential NFC Champion San Francisco team.

I’ll take the spread now before the line moves closer to double-digits when some of the Seahawks top guys are declared ‘out’.

Pick: 49ers (-7) | Best Odds: (-104) FanDuel

Black Friday

Miami Dolphins (-9, -435 ML) vs. New York Jets (+9.5, +375 ML)

Total: Over 40 (-108 | DraftKings), Under 40.5 (-115 | FanDuel)

The Jets’ offense has hit rock bottom.

In the last three weeks, New York has scored 24 combined points and they are averaging just 263.33 yards of total offense per game.

The Miami Dolphins’ offense is averaging 343.1 total yards per game this season, and the ability to move the ball down the field may be the biggest difference between these two AFC East squads.

This graph from BestOdds EDGE shows the difference in these two offenses, in terms of total yards:

Even though Miami’s offense has been slowing down over the last few weeks, they are still moving the ball down the field at a better clip than the Jets.

It’s just too risky to trust Zach Wilson and this New York offense to keep up with Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins.

Much like a traditional Black Friday shopping experience, the Jets will probably come home with a few bruises.

Pick: Dolphins (-9.5) | Best Odds: (-109) BetRivers

Sunday, November 26th – 1:00 p.m. EST

New England Patriots (-3, -165 ML) vs. New York Giants (+3.5, +150 ML)

Total: Over 33.5 (-110 | BetMGM), Under 33.5 (-110 | FanDuel)

Good for Giants’ rookie QB Tommy DeVito for picking up his first NFL win!

Let’s see if he can make it two in a row in Week 12.

The Patriots continue to play terrible football, and they would probably lose to the Georgia Bulldogs right now.

Essentially, New England has the ability of a mid-level SEC school.

Long gone are the days of the Brady and Belichick dynasty. We are now looking at the smashed landscape of a toppled empire.

There are rumors swirling that quarterback Bailey Zappe could get the start over Mac Jones this week, and there’s nothing like a Week 12 QB competition to help fan the flames of confusion.

Zappe didn’t have the best finish to last week’s matchup with Indianapolis.

Bailey Zappe’s fake-spike interception essentially ended the game between the Colts and Patriots 🤯

(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/Mu57PjxvR4

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 12, 2023

I can take comfort in knowing that DeVito and Saquon Barkley will be on the field for New York, and that’s familiarity that I can get behind.

Pick: Giants (+3.5) | Best Odds: (-115) DraftKings

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5, +118 ML) vs. Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, -126 ML)

Total: Over 43 (-110 | FanDuel), Under 43.5 (-110 | bet365)

The Colts won their last two games prior to their Week 11 bye. Indianapolis will host Baker Mayfield and the Bucs in Week 12.

The last two wins for Indy look good, but only in the standings. Wins over the Patriots and Panthers are not exactly going to give Colts fans Super Bowl hopes, but they’re wins nonetheless.

Tampa Bay has had a pretty tough stretch in their schedule, going 1-3 in their last four games, with the losses coming from the Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans, and San Francisco 49ers.

Those are respectable losses.

I don’t believe the records indicate who the better teams are here.

Plus, Tampa Bay is 7-3 against the spread this season, and they are 5-2 ATS when set as underdogs.

I think the Bucs are the superior team and will take this game.

Pick: Buccaneers Moneyline | Best Odds: (+118) Caesars

New Orleans Saints (-1, -102 ML) vs. Atlanta Falcons (-1, -108 ML)

Total: Over 42 (-110 | Caesars), Under 42.5 (-110 | bet365)

This game is an NFC South pick’em!

Derek Carr went down with a concussion in the Saints’ last contest, and he is questionable for Week 12, but it appears likely that Carr will suit up.

As for the Falcons, they made the switch to go with quarterback Taylor Heinicke in Week 8, and have since lost all three games they’ve played.

Not sure of the decision making on that move by Atlanta. It doesn’t seem to be the answer that they were looking for.

The Falcons are averaging 24.6 points per game over the last three weeks, which is higher than their season average of 18.9.

The recent number of points scored by Atlanta may be ballooned by the weak defenses they’ve played in that time.

ATL Opponent	Pass Defense (Rank)	Rush Defense (Rank)	Scoring Defense (Rank)
Tennessee	248.6 YPG (19th)	112.3 YPG (18th)	21.4 PPG (16th)
Minnesota	246 YPG (18th)	94 YPG (7th)	20.9 PPG (15th)
Arizona	238.6 (13th)	132.1 YPG (26th)	25.8 PPG (27th)

I expect the Falcons’ offense to dip closer to their season average scoring output against New Orleans defense.

I’m not in love with Carr and the Saints’ offense right now either, so I’ll back the under here.

Pick: Under 42.5 | Best Odds: (-110) bet365

Carolina Panthers (+4, +167 ML) vs. Tennessee Titans (-3.5, -190 ML)

Total: Over 37 (-105 | FanDuel), Under 37 (-110 | BetMGM)

The Panthers keep on losing, now sitting at 1-9 on the season.

Carolina’s record against the spread is not much better, currently at 1-7-2 ATS.

As for Tennessee, they’re looking to end a three-game losing streak.

The Titans received a four-touchdown debut from quarterback Will Levis against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 8, and have since failed to pick up a win.

Tennessee may have put too much pressure on the rookie QB, as running back Derrick Henry is averaging just 12.7 carries and 45.7 rushing yards in the last three losses.

Mike Vrabel needs to get his offense back on track and that starts with feeding Henry the football.

This week is a good matchup for a heavy workload for Henry, as the Panthers have the NFL’s 24th-ranked rushing defense, allowing 129.4 rushing yards per game.

Tennessee will use Henry to flatten Carolina’s defense in Week 12, but the Titan’s offense has been too sporadic for me to take them on the spread.

I’ll play it safe on the moneyline here.

Pick: Titans Moneyline | Best Odds: (-190) Caesars

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5, -108 ML) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+1, -102 ML)

Total: Over 34 (-112 | BetRivers), Under 34.5 (-108 | BetMGM)

Steelers’ quarterback Kenny Pickett has just six touchdown passes in 10 games.

Even Texans’ rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has a five-touchdown game this season, so it’s a frustrating number to see for Pittsburgh fans expecting Pickett to make a jump in Year 2.

The Cincinnati Bengals have quarterback issues of their own, as Joe Burrow is done for the year with a wrist injury.

Jake Browning stepped in for Burrow’s absence against the Ravens and didn’t look that bad, completing 8-of-14 passes for 68 yards and a touchdown in his limited sample of work.

It’s too early to say whether Browning will be a Cinderella story for the Bengals, and I think T.J. Watt and the Steelers’ defense can put that story to bed before it’s even written.

Although Pittsburgh’s defense continues to allow chunks of yards, sitting 25th in the NFL in passing defense (256.6 yards/game) and 23rd in rushing defense (127.7 yards/game), their defense finds a way to keep opponents out of the endzone, sitting 7th in the NFL in points allowed (19.5 points/game).

This AFC North matchup looks like a close one, so I’ll take the Steelers and their slightly better defense on the moneyline here.

Pick: Steelers Moneyline | Best Odds: (-108) FanDuel

Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5, -116 ML) vs. Houston Texans (+1.5, +105 ML)

Total: Over 46.5 (-114 | BetRivers), Under 48 (-110 | Caesars)

The Houston Texans have won three games in a row, and now at 6-4, they have become a serious contender to take the AFC South.

A win this week over the South-leading Jacksonville Jaguars would be massive for this young Texans team, under rookie QB C.J. Stroud and first year head coach DeMeco Ryans.

Here’s a look at how these defenses stack up, courtesy of BestOdds EDGE.

Clearly, these two defenses have been subpar on passing defense.

The Texans continue to play well, and with Stroud facing a weak passing defense in the friendly confines of NRG Stadium in Houston, I’m going to ride the wave and back the underdog Texans.

I think the AFC South will be all tied up after Week 12.

Pick: Texans Moneyline | Best Odds: (+105) BetMGM

November 26th – 4:05 p.m. EST

Los Angeles Rams (-1, -104 ML) vs. Arizona Cardinals (+1, -103 ML)

Total: Over 44 (-114 | BetRivers), Under 44.5 (-110 | FanDuel)

Arizona is averaging only 17.5 points per game this season, but in the two games since the return of quarterback Kyler Murray, they are averaging 20.5 points per game.

Murray may have given this offense a little more juice.

Matt Stafford returned under center for the Los Angeles Rams in Week 11, and he didn’t perform too well in the win over Seattle, completing just 17-of-31 passes for 190 yards, a touchdown pass and one interception.

Stafford may still be dealing with that sprained thumb, because he just looked off last Sunday.

Losing wide receiver Cooper Kupp in the second quarter probably didn’t help matters either.

The Cardinals are one-point underdogs here, and if Los Angeles doesn’t have Kupp again, I like Arizona’s chances.

Kupp is just too important to the Rams’ offense, and his questionable designation concerns me.

Pick: Cardinals Moneyline | Best Odds: (-103) BetRivers

Cleveland Browns (+2.5, +118 ML) vs. Denver Broncos (-2.5, -135 ML)

Total: Over 35.5 (-108 | bet365), Under 36.5 (-110 | FanDuel)

The Denver Broncos are on an improbable run, winning their last last four games after starting the season 1-5.

A win this week would get the Broncos over .500, which was a wild thought just a month ago.

Denver has taken down a few strong opponents in their current streak, beating the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 8 and the Buffalo Bills in Week 10.

The Broncos will host the Cleveland Browns this week, and the Browns are bringing the NFL’s best defense with them.

As BestOdds EDGE shows, these two defenses are night and day.

Cleveland is allowing only 243.3 total yards per game, and facing a Denver offense that is only gaining 301.2 total yards per game (23rd in NFL), it could be a long day for Russell Wilson and the Broncos’ offense.

Cleveland doesn’t have too many star playmakers in their offense right now, but quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and running back Jerome Ford may be enough.

Pick: Browns Moneyline | Best Odds: (+118) FanDuel

November 26th – 4:25 p.m. EST

Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, -390 ML) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+9.5, +350 ML)

Total: Over 44 (-109 | BetRivers), Under 44.5 (-110 | FanDuel)

At times, the Chiefs have not looked like their high-scoring selves.

Just look at where Kansas City has finished in scoring average in the NFL over the previous five years:

Season	Scoring Average	NFL Ranking
2018	34.8 Points Per Game	1st
2019	29.9 Points Per Game	2nd
2020	28.5 Points Per Game	6th
2021	29.4 Points Per Game	4th
2022	29.2 Points Per Game	1st

This season, the Chiefs are averaging 23.1 points per game, 11th in the NFL.

How is a Patrick Mahomes-led offense outside the Top-10 in scoring average?

One team that has not been a high-scoring team is the Las Vegas Raiders, and with all of the turmoil swirling around this team, it’s no surprise.

The Raiders have already gone under a coaching change, shifting from Josh McDaniels to Antonio Pierce, and a QB change, replacing Jimmy Garoppolo with Aidan O’Connell.

Las Vegas’ new look team is 26th in the NFL in scoring, averaging only 16.8 points per game.

The interesting thing about this game is how solid these defenses have been.

Kansas City is 2nd in the NFL in points allowed (15.9), and the Raiders are 13th (20.5).

Under Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas is allowing just 12.7 points per game.

The Raiders even held the high-flying Dolphins, the NFL’s No. 1 scoring offense (30.5 points/game) to only 20 points last week, in Miami.

Even with Mahomes on the field, I like the under here.

Pick: Under 44.5 | Best Odds: (-110) FanDuel

Buffalo Bills (+3.5, +150 ML) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, -169 ML)

Total: Over 47.5 (-109 | BetRivers), Under 47.5 (-108 | BetMGM)

The Bills had a nice bounce back win over the New York Jets in Week 11, crushing their AFC East rivals, 32-6.

Buffalo needed to get back on track before their heavyweight matchup with Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12.

This game was probably a Super Bowl 58 preview for many bettors.

It will be up to Josh Allen, keeping the ball in the hands of his own offense if the Bills want to hang around with the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field in Philly.

Allen has thrown 12 interceptions this season, at least one in the last seven games, and while the one from last week didn’t hurt in a rout of the Jets, one could be costly this week.

The Eagles have a beatable passing defense, allowing 279 passing yards per game (30th in NFL), so Allen should be able to move his offense downfield.

Philadelphia started last season 8-1, just like this season, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say that many of those eight wins are not that impressive.

Those eight wins include two one-possession wins over the Commanders, including one in overtime.

The combined record of the Eagles opponents in the first nine games is 42-51.

Even if Philly can pull off a win here, I like the Bills on the spread.

Pick: Bills (+3.5) | Best Odds: (-115) bet365 

Sunday Night Football

Baltimore Ravens (-4, -184 ML) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (+4.5, +170 ML)

Total: Over 46.5 (-108 | BetRivers), Under 46.5 (-108 | DraftKings)

I’ll say that Brandon Staley is the next head coach to be fired.

With a relatively talented roster, Staley is only 23-21 as head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers since 2021.

In Year 3, things aren’t turning around, as the 4-6 Chargers continue to disappoint.

Los Angeles’ defense is allowing 23.8 points per game (23rd in NFL), and they are dead-last in passing defense, allowing 316.3 passing yards per game.

The man calling the defense for the Chargers: Brandon Staley.

The Baltimore Ravens have been one of the most consistent teams in the NFL, and this week could be a fun time for offensive coordinator Todd Monken to let Lamar Jackson air it out against a weak passing defense.

This could be an impressive showing for the Ravens’ offense, and I don’t see the Chargers hanging around.

Pick: Ravens (-4) | Best Odds: (-110) BetRivers

Monday Night Football

Chicago Bears (+3.5, +150 ML) vs. Minnesota Vikings (-3, -174 ML)

Total: Over 45 (-110 | FanDuel), Under 46 (-110 | DraftKings)

In his return to the field, Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields put forth a strong effort in a close loss to the Detroit Lions.

Fields completed 16-of-23 passes for 169 yards and a touchdown through the air and picked up another 104 yards on the ground.

Unfortunately, Chicago would blow a 12-point lead in the final three minutes.

The Minnesota Vikings also suffered a tough loss, allowing a game-winning touchdown pass to Russell Wilson of the Broncos in the final minute of their Week 11 matchup.

Whichever team can play to the final minute will come out on top in this NFC North rivalry on Monday Night Football.

I’m assuming that this game is going to come down to the fourth quarter.

The slight edge goes to Minnesota as their scoring average in the fourth quarter is better than Chicago’s by one point.

Pick: Vikings Moneyline | Best Odds: (-174) FanDuel