Updated: Nov 23, 2022
We’ve made it to Thanksgiving Week, and we have three juicy Thanksgiving-day games to consume while we concurrently consume our turkey and stuffing.
Those games will kick off at 12:30, 4:30, and 8:20 p.m. EST, respectively.
Otherwise, we have a packed Week 12 schedule, and sportsbooks have already posted Week 12 lines to view and bet on.
Which teams will cover their Week 12 matchups? Which teams will win outright?
With NFL odds for Week 12 finding their range, let’s preview all 15 games.
Thanksgiving Day Football
Buffalo Bills (-9.5, -390 ML) Vs. Detroit Lions (+9.5, +375 ML)
The Lions will play again on Thanksgiving, as they do every year. It hasn’t been pretty for the Lions, who are just 7-10 ATS since 2007 on Thanksgiving Day.
They did cover five straight on the holiday during the Stafford era, but since are just 2-3 ATS and 0-5 SU.
However, this is too many points.
Home underdogs catching 7.5 or more have covered at a 55% clip since 2004, making it one of the most profitable spots in the NFL.
The Bills are incredible and will likely win twice at the same stadium in the space of four days! But Dan Campbell’s Lions will play up and down to the competition.
They went 11-6 ATS as an underdog in 2021 and I expect that trend to remain steady with the improvements to the roster.
The Lions make this one entertaining for fans.
My pick: Detroit Lions +9.5 (-105) | Playable at number
New York Giants (+8.5, +315 ML) Vs. Dallas Cowboys (-8, -350 ML)
I think this game is closer than this line implies.
The Giants improved so much in the trenches, while the Cowboys took a noticeable step back through their offseason moves.
It’s been a pretty easy ride for the Giants as well, who had their Bye week in Week 9 followed by home matchups with the Texans and Lions.
They’re well-rested and in prime form to make this an entertaining game.
I’m also high on Daniel Jones’ road performances.
All his numbers take a jump when he plays away from the Meadowlands, including having tossed for 28 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions.
Jones has covered over 70% of the games he’s played as a road dog.
I’ll happily take the points, despite the Cowboys’ remarkable trouncing of Minnesota at the weekend.
My pick: New York Giants +8.5 (-105) | Playable at number
New England Patriots (+3, +145 ML) Vs. Minnesota Vikings (-3, -158 ML)
While I’m inclined to believe Mac Jones, Bill Belichick, and co. can win this game, I think there are too many factors working against them.
A short week almost always favors the home team and the favorite.
The Vikings have an electric offense and the Patriots are noticeably weak in the secondary.
I think Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson can tear it up on Thursday Night.
This feels like that late-season Patriots game against the Colts last season. On the road in a tough spot, the Patriots battled but came up short.
Expect the Vikings to hold on to this one and return to winning ways.
My pick: Minnesota Vikings -3 (-105) | Playable at number
Game Kickoff – 1 p.m. EST
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, -155 ML) vs Cleveland Browns (+3, +144 ML)
The Browns are going to produce pressure.
This Buccaneers’ offensive line is banged up, and the way you beat Tom Brady is by beating him up.
Produce a consistent pass rush with four rushers – two of those being Jadevon Clowney and Myles Garrett – and you can beat Brady.
Moreover, the Browns have a few elite corners that should cover the Buccaneers’ weapons. I think Brady struggles mightily here.
Jacoby Brissett is no Tom Brady. But if the Browns get enough of a push on that Tampa defensive line, Cleveland is going to ground-and-pound its way to a cover.
My pick: Cleveland Browns -3 (+100) Take the generous odds at PointsBet. It’s all too rare to see a +100 on spread markets, so take advantage if you fancy the Browns.
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5, -115 ML) Vs. Tennessee Titans (+2, +108 ML)
This is the type of spot with which Mike Vrabel struggles.
He is just 2-7 ATS when the line is in between -2 and +2.
The Bengals are the highest-variance team in the NFL.
They can go off on any given week and they’re in a prime spot to take advantage of a Vrabel-led team that will stumble when the going gets tough.
I think Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase connect for plenty of deep shots.
The Titans also rarely blitz or produce quality pressure, and that should negate the weaknesses on the Bengals’ offensive line.
Give me Cincinnati.
My pick: Cincinnati -1.5
PK (-105) | Playable at number
Denver Broncos (-2.5, -135 ML) Vs. Carolina Panthers (+3, +125 ML)
This feels like the biggest trap line of the season.
How could Russell Wilson and the Broncos be laying less than three against the Panthers?
Regardless of where the game is played.
There’s no particular schedule spot that’s tricky for either team.
Maybe Vegas is giving a lot of credit to Baker Mayfield, but the Broncos’ roster is far more complete and Wilson is a far superior quarterback at his best.
I’m just not going to think. I’ll take the Broncos at anything under a field goal.
My pick: Denver Broncos -2.5 (-110) | Playable at number
Atlanta Falcons (+4, +167 ML) Vs. Washington Commanders (-3, -175 ML)
This is too many points.
The Falcons have a decent young secondary, and I think they’ll play around with Taylor Heinicke, who I think is criminally overvalued in the markets.
The Falcons are stripped down, but they should make enough plays to stay within four in one of the ugliest games of the month, if not the entire season.
My pick: Atlanta Falcons +4 (-115) | Playable at number
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, -180 ML) Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+4, +175 ML)
This is tough. The Jaguars are coming off a bye, and +4 is a fairly sharp line for a home dog.
But it feels like these are not enough points for the Jags to be catching against a loaded Ravens team.
Anything could happen in this one. I’ll pass.
If you are tempted by picking one of these two on the moneyline, then take note.
This is one of the biggest variance of odds we have seen this season.
The odds for the Ravens range from the best odds of -180 at PointsBet to the worst odds of -215 with Unibet.
If you think the Jags will win, then make sure to bet at BetRivers who have the best odds of +175, and avoid Pointsbet at +150. Good luck!
I hope it is not a tie!
My pick: Pass
Chicago Bears (+4, +170 ML) Vs. New York Jets (-3.5, -180 ML)
It’s weird to say, but the Jets can and should win this game.
The Bears are just that bad. While neither quarterback has been all that good, Zach Wilson is more NFL-ready than Justin Fields is.
He’s also backed up by a roster with far more talent than it’s had in the past and far more talent than the Bears can field.
It is a small sandwich spot for the Jets, who will play three road games in four weeks after Week 14’s matchup with the Bills.
But the Bears are on the second leg of a two-week road trip and don’t have their Bye until Week 14. This team is both tired and poor.
I love the Jets here. I’d play them at anything under 4.
My pick: New York Jets -3.5 (-107) | Playable at number
Houston Texans (+12, +440 ML) Vs. Miami Dolphins (-12, -425 ML)
The last time these two teams matched up, the Dolphins and Texans were both 1-7.
It was supposed to be the biggest Toilet Bowl matchup of all time.
The Dolphins largely cruised in a low-scoring, 17-9 game in which both teams combined for a whopping nine turnovers.
It was gross, but the Dolphins won and covered the 2.5-point spread.
The Dolphins proceeded to win eight of their final nine games.
They went through a controversial coaching change in the offseason, but made a great hire in Mike McDaniel and picked up the explosive Tyreek Hill as well.
That’s why they’re now laying nearly two touchdowns in this one.
Davis Mills is frisky, and the Dolphins’ defense may be a tad overvalued.
But I don’t trust either team in this one, especially with a spread as large as this.
I lean toward Houston, but will most likely pass.
My pick: Pass | Lean Houston Texans +12 (-107)
Game Kickoff – 4 p.m. EST
Las Vegas Raiders (+4, +168 ML) Vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, -180 ML)
Another trap line! It has moved by a touchdown since the summer in favor of Geno.
I still cannot grasp how the Seahawks are sitting on top of the NFC West.
Remember that this division has the current Super Bowl champs, a decent San Francisco franchise, and the Cards with Kyler Murray under center.
What is going on?!
The Seahawks may have beaten two AFC West teams this season, but I don’t expect it to be third-time lucky
I’ll take the Raiders on the moneyline with FanDuel at +168.
The +140 at BetRivers is not as attractive!
My pick: Las Vegas Raiders ML +168 | Playable at number
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, -135 ML) Vs. Arizona Cardinals (+3, +130 ML)
As we inch closer and closer to the end of the season, we can trust the Cardinals less and less.
Kliff Kingsbury is a disaster from Week 8 on, and that’s a trend that’s gone back to his Texas Tech days.
The Chargers hopefully have learned from their late-season collapse in 2021.
Justin Herbert and co. should be ready to close out this season extremely strong and hoist the division title for the first time since 2009.
Give me the Chargers in a crucial, late-season divisional road game.
My pick: Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 (-109) | Playable at number
Los Angeles Rams (+14, +640 ML) Vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-14, -900 ML)
A powerhouse matchup between two of the NFL’s supposed best here.
How the mighty have fallen?! This game was nearly a pick’em in the summer.
Now the two biggest sportsbooks in the country are giving the Rams not one, but two touchdowns!
Surely, we have never seen such a fall from grace?!
This is the last home game for the Chiefs before they embark on a three-game road trip.
This is a big spot for Patrick Mahomes and co., and the Rams are on the back-end of their two-game road trip.
Andy Reid and Sean McVay have only matched up once, which was the all-time classic, 54-51 football game that resembled a 7-on-7 drill.
Jared Goff and the Rams pulled that one out, but this is a tougher spot on the road, and coach Reid will be hunting for revenge.
I think the Chiefs pull this one out at Arrowhead given the context.
The Rams may be shot to pieces physically, but I don’t see how FanDuel can set their total so low.
My bet is the over in this one. Let the fireworks fly!
My pick: Over at 44 with FanDuel
New Orleans Saints (+8.5, +320 ML) Vs. San Francisco 49ers (-8.5, -360 ML)
This is a tough game to handicap.
The Niners are still working with their rookie quarterback, but the Saints have a rookie head coach.
The Saints are coming off a short week after playing on Monday Night last week, but the Niners are looking ahead to the Buccaneers next week (also on Monday Night) and don’t have their Bye until Week 14.
The Niners have a coaching advantage and will be better in the run game, but eight and a half points is a very sharp line in the NFL.
There are too many contradicting factors in this one. I’ll just pass on the spread and ML.
My pick: Pass
Sunday Night Football
Green Bay Packers (+6.5, +245 ML) Vs. Philadelphia Eagles -6.5, -275 ML)
Is less than a touchdown enough to half the Eagles? They have looked less invincible in their past two games
I realize this game is in Philadelphia, but this is Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Surely this should be nearer a field goal between them?
The Eagles have one of the top offensive lines in football, and one of the league’s most efficient run games as a result.
Considering the Packers have questions in their front seven, that gives a pretty huge advantage to Philly.
The Packers are always involved in close games that AR12 seems to pull off.
However, I think Rodgers puts on a show. He’ll have to carry his team in this one, and I think we see fireworks on Sunday Night Football.
So, while I’ll pass on a side, I love the over.
Expect plenty of red-zone and late-game execution from both sides to cruise over the number. The total has dropped from 54 at the start of the season to 45 now.
I sense some value there.
My pick: Over 45 (-110)
Monday Night Football
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3, +130 ML) Vs. Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, -140 ML)
You’re giving me Mike Tomlin with 3 points in primetime? I have no choice but to back the Steelers.
- Mike Tomlin as an underdog: 45-23 ATS
- Mike Tomlin on Thursday and Monday Night Football: 20-17 ATS
This is a sharp line with two elite defenses in what should be a lower-scoring game.
This is a good situation for the underdog, and there’s no better underdog coach than Tomlin.
My pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (-115) | Playable at number
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