NFL Player Prop Bets Week 12

It’s Thanksgiving Week in the NFL, and one man that I am thankful for lately is Brock Purdy.

“Dirty Purdy” has hit the over on his passing yards prop in each of the last four games, and without doing a bit of research, I’ll be backing him again on over 250.5 passing yards on FanDuel.

Purdy has been gravy.

And since it’s Thanksgiving Week, let’s find a few more gravy picks across the Week 13 slate.

All prop bets are paired with the best odds!

Lamar Jackson – QB, Baltimore Ravens

The Los Angeles Chargers have the NFL’s 32nd-ranked defense!

This week, the Baltimore Ravens head to SoFi Stadium to take on the Chargers, so let’s attack that woeful defense with a wager on Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop.

Los Angeles is allowing 316.3 passing yards per game, and last week, they even allowed Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers to throw for 322 yards.

We don’t need 300 yards, just 231 on bet365.

This is why it’s best to shop around, as FanDuel has the highest line on Jackson, whose passing yards prop is 244.5 yards, but it is as low as 230.5 on bet365 and Caesars.

As seen in the graph below, BestOdds EDGE projects Jackson to throw for 232 yards.

EDGE is much smarter than I am, and if it says Jackson can go over 230 passing yards, then I stand by its decision.

Against the NFL’s worst passing defense, Jackson should have little trouble moving his offense down field through the air.

If Justin Herbert and the Chargers can keep this game tight, then even better, as Jackson and the Ravens will have to keep throwing the ball to stay alive.

Either way, Jackson for 231 yards feels like a safe bet.

Pick: Jackson – OVER 230.5 Passing Yards

Best Odds: (-110) bet365

Jerome Ford – RB, Cleveland Browns

The Denver Broncos have the NFL’s 32nd-ranked rushing defense!

Like Jackson, I’m taking the same approach here with Browns’ running back Jerome Ford.

Cleveland has a little bit of a quarterback issue at the moment, so to take some pressure off Dorian Thompson-Robinson, I’d expect plenty of rushing attempts from the Browns, especially against the Broncos’ defense.

Ford is averaging 56.3 rushing yards per game this season, and when he receives 15 or more carries, he’s averaging 75.4 rushing yards per game.

In a game where Cleveland could grind down the clock with their running game, Ford should see more than enough carries to surpass his 47.5 rushing yards line.

Jerome Ford 69 yards to the house! NICE start!

pic.twitter.com/rGUJVZLMZ7

— Bovada (@BovadaOfficial) October 22, 2023

I’m not too worried about the presence of Kareem Hunt in the Browns’ backfield either, because in the last two weeks, Denver is allowing more than one opposing running back to find success.

Against the Buffalo Bills in Week 10, the Broncos allowed James Cook to run for 109 yards on 12 carries and allowed Latavius Murray to total 68 yards and a touchdown on nine carries.

The very next week, Minnesota Vikings’ running back Alexander Mattison ran for 81 yards on 18 carries against Denver, and his backfield mate Ty Chandler also ran for 73 yards on 10 carries.

It’s green grass ahead for Ford.

Pick: Ford – OVER 47.5 Rushing Yards

Best Odds: (-110) bet365

Evan Engram – TE, Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Houston Texans this Sunday, and the matchup bodes well for Jags’ tight end Evan Engram.

Houston has been getting beat regularly by tight ends, and even in their three game winning streak, the Texans have allowed 23 catches for 177 yards and two touchdowns to opposing tight ends.

This game being a AFC South matchup, Engram has seen Houston once already this season, catching seven passes for 67 yards back in Week 3.

BestOdds EDGE projects Engram to tally 46 receiving yards, which is just above his receiving yards prop on FanDuel.

Tight ends are averaging 63.5 receiving yards across 10 games against the Texans this season, and to me, that’s where I’d project Engram; at about 65 yards.

As the second-most targeted option in the Jaguars passing attack, with only three less targets than Christian Kirk, Engram should get plenty of looks from Trevor Lawrence this week.

Pick: Engram – OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards

Best Odds: (-114) FanDuel

Derrick Henry – RB, Tennessee Titans

Getting Derrick Henry to score a touchdown at a value of -110 is pretty rare, so I’m going to take it.

This week, the Tennessee Titans face the Carolina Panthers, and the Panthers have allowed a whopping 14 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs in 10 games. That’s the most in the NFL, and three more than the next closest team.

In the last two games, Carolina has allowed a touchdown to both D’Onta Foreman of the Chicago Bears and Tony Pollard of the Dallas Cowboys.

For Pollard, it was only his third touchdown of the season and his first since Week 1.

Derrick Henry does not share a lunch table with Foreman and Pollard.

Derrick Henry with a Touchdown 👑 🔥pic.twitter.com/UuSxNkhIHz

— Alabama DieHards (@DiehardsAlabama) October 1, 2023

Tennessee has lost three games in a row, and in the same time, Henry has only taken 38 carries, which is 12.7 carries per game in the losing streak.

12.7 carries per game? That’s the problem right there. Feed Henry the ball and things will probably be going a little smoother for the Titans.

Quit asking Will Levis to score the touchdowns when a running back that has scored 82 in 112 career games is standing right behind him.

Pick: Henry – Any Time Touchdown

Best Odds: (-110) DraftKings