Updated: Nov 23, 2022
Thanksgiving and the home stretch of the 2022 NFL Season are upon us.
There are some cracking games between Thursday and Monday. The armchair viewer should be in for a treat.
The Bills in Detroit (bizarrely for the second time in four days!) should be as tantalizing as the turkey.
The Rams-Chiefs and Packers-Eagles on Sunday night stand out. Monday night might be a damp squib in comparison.
However, that’s the game where I see some moneyline value.
Regular readers know how I construct my weekly parlay.
One moneyline underdog is chosen to kick it off. Then I select two spread bets, as well as one over and one under.
I am on a roll with my moneyline leg selections, having nailed it for the fourth week in a row.
The issue is my notable ability to choose the over when the game goes under! To cap it off, when I go under, the scoreboard seemingly ticks over every time a team has possession!
Maybe Week 12 will be my lucky week?! We shall see…
If all my selections win this long weekend, my parlay out would return an impressive +3000.
Remember, all five must win for my bet to bring in thirty
-five times my money.
Moneyline – Steelers Vs. Colts (Best Odds – +130)
I might be doing a disservice in my introduction above to two of the AFC’s titans.
I just don’t think they will provide the same level of excitement as, say, the Rams-Chiefs or Packers-Eagles. Those should be a feast for the eyes.
Steelers fans may well be harking back to Terry Bradshaw or Big Ben, depending on their vintage. They may lack a quality QB, but who would argue that Matt Ryan is top-notch?
What Pittsburgh has is a canny Head Coach in Mike Tomlin. The Colts had a habit of losing games last season as a home favorite.
In the spread markets, there is practically no better underdog coach than Mike Tomlin. He covers the spread twice as often as not.
He’s also a winner ATS more often than not when on Primetime. We have history and trends on our side.
I think Tomlin will do more than cover the spread. I imagine that he will head back east with a closely fought victory and hand the Colts a second narrow defeat on the trot.
Spread – Chargers (-2.5) Vs. Cardinals (-109)
This is not a very common match-up, but the Chargers very rarely end up on the losing side.
Whether the Cards are playing as St Louis, Phoenix, or Arizona, their Californian rivals come out on top. This weekend in 2018 saw the Chargers pummel the poor Cards 41-10.
The Mercurial Murray may now be running the show. He is certainly an upgrade on Josh Rosen, but wouldn’t you say Justin Herbert is a notch higher up the talent charts than Philip Rivers?
Giving the Chargers less than a field-goal advantage over a Cardinals team seems too generous. The Cards look to be returning to where they were in the second half of the last decade.
Moments of Murray magic cannot counter a lack of squad depth around him.
The stacked Chargers, up against a Head Coach whose teams historically tail off in the second half of any season, are too tempting not to appear in this week’s parlay!
With Caesars best priced on the spread currently and offering good odds for the rest of my parlay, they are the sportsbook to use this week if you choose to follow my parlay.
And if you are being a contrarian, remember to shop around for those best odds!
Over/Under – Packers Vs. Eagles (45) (-110)
I would be flabbergasted if this game ends up under and the Patriots-Vikings game will be over. However, my colleague Lukasz will be placing just that bet given my shocking run of form on totals this season!
Sunday Night Football, Aaron Rodgers finally finding his range and a steamrollering Eagles’ ground game should combine for a high-scoring spectacle.
Again, history seems to be on our side. Rodgers’ last four meetings with the Eagles have averaged 55 points.
His career total average against Philly is just shy of 50.
The line has fallen by a field goal from 48 to 45 as the season has progressed. As financial traders in the pit on the CME or other such exchanges would say, “Mine at 45!”
Or more simply put, I’m backing the over at 45!
Spread – Bills Vs. Lions (+9.5) (-105)
As usual, Detroit entertains the nation on Thursday as families gather around the dinner table.
For many households, each Thanksgiving consists of sibling bickerings and Lions’ defeats.
The Lions haven’t won since 2016. For those wondering, Detroit has hosted a Thanksgiving game since 1934.
Despite being a fan of this franchise, I don’t see them celebrating victory against the Bills. However, giving them 9 points at Caesars seems too generous. Note that Draftkings is set at 8 points.
As I have mentioned before, home underdogs catching more than 7.5 points have covered 55% of the time in the past two decades. This Detroit team rarely is blown to smithereens.
I expect them to go down fighting, but keep the game within a score. Interestingly the spread is at exactly the same price as before the season started.
If you are tempted by the Lions with 9.5 points in isolation, then you must be aware of the odds your sportsbook is offering for that spread.
PointsBet, as is often the case, is the most generous of the sportsbooks with where they set their odds on spreads. They are at -105.
The other sportsbooks range from -110 thru -112 to -115.
FanDuel is the worst price for the Lions on the spread, but the best price for the Bills!
Remember that all sportsbooks are not the same…
Over/Under – Patriots Vs. Vikings (42.5) (-110)
Bill Belichick’s band of not-so-merry men head west to Minneapolis to take on a Vikings team striving to secure their place in the playoffs.
I was staggered to learn that these two famous franchises have only ever met thirteen times in the past 52 years, which means that they face off with the regularity of February 29th appearing in your calendar.
The Pats have had the Vikings’ number this millennium. Minnesota last won way back in 2000. New England has won five on the bounce.
This match-up hasn’t seen more than 48 points in over 30 years!
With Mac Jones’s 6-2 2021 road record a distant memory and a Vikings team that seems to do just enough to eke out victories, the total seems toppy.
These two teams managed just six points between them on Sunday during 119 minutes and 55 seconds of play!
Marcus Jones’s amazing 84-yard punt return with 5 seconds left scuppered the above sentence stating 120 minutes! Anyways, you see my point.
Even though the total has dropped by a touchdown since the line first came out in the summer, I’m still backing the under.
How To Bet NFL Parlays
A parlay bet is a sports wager that combines several bets on one ticket alone.
Usually, you would go with moneyline bets but can use spreads, totals, and futures.
You can include props in many cases, and bettors can choose to link together just two sides, or up to 15 or more depending on the sportsbook.
Parlays are wholly customizable meaning bettors get to choose how big they want the odds to go.
How many sides will be included, and how difficult is it to make each leg of the parlay or do the same game parlays.
The way to establish consistency is to have just two or three sides and avoid chasing astronomical odds.
It’s fine to take your shot at a massive payout as well, but be sure to only risk the money you’re prepared to lose.
Check out NFL parlay bets week 13 for betting ideas and to lock in early odds.
If you fancy regular bets, we got the NFL week 12 odds analysis worth checking out.
RatingGet $200 In Free Bets When Betting $10 Or $1,000 In Free Bets
RatingBet $5 Get $200 In Free Bets & $1,000 Deposit Match Bonus
RatingGet $1,000 No Sweat First Bet
RatingGet 2nd Free Bet Up To $500
RatingGet Two Risk Fee Bets Up To $2,000