Steelers vs. Browns Same Game Parlay | Week 11

The cities of Pittsburgh and Cleveland are only separated by about 130 miles, so this midwestern rivalry is always highly anticipated.

In Week 2, these AFC North rivals squared up at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh and the Steelers came out on top, 26-22.

It was the week the Browns lost star running back Nick Chubb for the season, with Chubb suffering a ruptured ACL and MCL.

This week, Cleveland will now be without starting quarterback Deshaun Watson moving forward as he is done for the season as well, with an MRI revealing a broken bone in his throwing shoulder.

ACL, MCL, MRI. The Browns’ offense is drowning in an injury-riddled alphabet soup.

Let’s angle away from the letters and get back to the numbers for this Week 11 matchup.

For this Cleveland-Pittsburgh rivalry, I’ll be placing a Same Game Parlay on FanDuel. 

Dorian Thompson-Robinson – OVER 166.5 Passing Yards AND OVER 0.5 TD Passes

Thompson-Robinson has been named the starter for the Browns in Week 11, and depending on how he performs this week, he could be the starter under center for the rest of the season.

In only one career start, a 28-3 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, Thompson-Robinson completed 19-of-36 passes for 121 yards and three interceptions.

That’s not a pretty debut.

Thompson-Robinson comes into this matchup with very little expectations, as evidenced by his 166.5 passing yards line and his touchdown passing prop of just 0.5, but he could exceed those expectations against the Steelers’ defense.

In the last two weeks, Pittsburgh faced two young quarterbacks, Will Levis of the Tennessee Titans and Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers.

Levis completed 22 passes for 262 yards and Love completed 21 passes for 289 yards and two touchdowns.

The Steelers’ defense is beatable, and even Thompson-Robinson could potentially move his team down the field well.

This chart, courtesy of BestOdds EDGE, compares the Browns’ and Steelers’ defenses:

Clearly, the Steelers’ defense has been giving up way too many yards.

In 2022, Thompson-Robinson threw for 3,169 yards and 27 touchdowns for the UCLA Bruins, so there is some talent in his arm.

Based on how Pittsburgh has fared against a few other young QBs in the last few games, I think Thompson-Robinson can exceed his minimal expectations.

Pick: Thompson-Robinson – OVER 166.5 Passing Yards (-110 FanDuel)

Pick: Thompson-Robinson – OVER 0.5 Passing TDs (-188 FanDuel)

Jerome Ford – OVER 50.5 Rushing Yards AND Any Time Touchdown

In the last meeting of these two teams, Browns’ running back Nick Chubb went down, and Ford stepped in.

Ford handled 16 carries after Chubbs’ exit and tallied 106 yards on the ground and caught three passes for 25 yards and a touchdown too, showing some versatility in Cleveland’s offense.

Jerome Ford was THISCLOSE to a long TD 😮‍💨

📺: Steelers vs. Browns on NFL Game Pass on DAZN pic.twitter.com/zuEluthBuQ

— NFL on DAZN (@NFLonDAZN) September 19, 2023

As I mentioned earlier, Pittsburgh’s defense has been giving up way too many yards.

In eight of nine games this season, the Steelers have allowed at least one opposing rusher to run for 50 or more yards. The only game where a rusher did not reach 50 yards against Pittsburgh was the matchup with the Baltimore Ravens in Week 5.

The Ravens’ leading rusher against the Steelers in Week 5 was Gus Edwards, with 48 yards.

Ford is averaging 59.1 rushing yards per game, and against Pittsburgh’s 24th-ranked rushing defense (131.2 rushing yards/game), he should be able to usurp his rushing yards prop.

I’d expect Ford to get plenty of carries to take pressure off Thompson-Robinson as well.

And, with Ford’s ability to catch passes out of the backfield, he should get some targets as a safety valve for the rookie QB.

If any man for Cleveland is going to find the end zone, it’s got to be Ford.

Pick: Ford – OVER 50.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Pick: Ford – Any Time Touchdown (+240 FanDuel)

Kenny Pickett – OVER 179.5 Passing Yards AND OVER 0.5 TD Passes

This is not a great matchup for Pickett.

The Browns’ defense is allowing the least amount of passing yards in the NFL, just an average of 173.2 passing yards per game.

But, in the Week 2 matchup against Cleveland, Pickett threw for 222 yards, with the Steelers’ ground game being halted to only 55 total rushing yards (2.6 yards per carry).

Kenny Pickett ➡️ George Pickens

✅️ 71 yards for the touchdown
✅️ 16-11, Pittsburgh leads pic.twitter.com/HtEYQhkkeE

— Gabriel Schray (@schrayguy) September 19, 2023

I foresee a similar situation this week.

I don’t believe that Pittsburgh’s running back combo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will find many gaps this week, and with the ground game being stunted once again, the offense will be placed in the hands of Pickett.

In the last four games, the Browns’ defense has allowed an average of 210 passing yards per game, but that number could be even higher if not for a 58-yard dud from Arizona Cardinals’ quarterback Clayton Tune.

With Tune’s game subtracted, that average jumps to 260.7 passing yards per game.

If the Steelers’ offense is going to move down the field, they’ll need Pickett and the passing attack to carry the torch.

Also, Cleveland’s defense has allowed at least one passing touchdown in six of their nine games, including Pickett tossing one to George Pickens in the last meeting with the Browns in Week 2. 

Pick: Pickett – OVER 179.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Pick: Pickett – OVER 0.5 Passing TDs (-174 FanDuel)

Diontae Johnson – OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards

In five appearances this season, Johnson is averaging 63.8 receiving yards per game, and that number would have looked a lot better if not for a 17-yard clunker in Week 10 against the Green Bay Packers.

Last week, Johnson also saw a season-low four targets.

This is not exactly an easy rebound game for Johnson, being shadowed by Browns’ cornerback Denzel Ward.

With an expected increase in targets, Johnson should have plenty of opportunities to hit the over on his modest 45.5 receiving yards prop.

Here is a quick look at how opposing wide receivers have fared when being largely covered by Denzel Ward in recent weeks, with the Cardinals’ and Clayton Tune’s Week 9 disaster redacted:

WR – Ward Matchup	WR Results
Week 6: Brandon Aiyuk (SF)	10 Tgts, 4 Rec, 76 Yds
Week 7: Michael Pittman (IND)	5 Tgts, 2 Rec, 83 Yds, TD
Week 8: DK Metcalf (SEA)	14 Tgts, 5 Rec, 67 Yds
Week 10: Zay Flowers (BAL)	6 Tgts, 5 Rec, 73 Yds

Against Ward, receivers are still receiving a decent target share, but they’re not getting into the end zone.

We don’t need Johnson to score, just eclipse 45.5 receiving yards.

Interestingly, in the four receivers mentioned in the chart above, much of their yards came from a single long gain.

Aiyuk had a long of 33 yards, Pittman caught a 75-yarder, and Metcalf hauled in a 43-yard catch, with Flowers’ longest gain being a solid 18 yards.

Ward is a strong cornerback, but every now and then, he allows one big play that hurts the Browns’ defense.

It’s plausible that Johnson could hit the over on his receiving yards prop on one catch.

Pick: Johnson – OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)

FanDuel SGP Legs	Odds
Dorian Thompson-Robinson – OVER 166.5 Passing Yards	-110
Dorian Thompson-Robinson – OVER 0.5 TD Passes	-188
Jerome Ford – OVER 50.5 Rushing Yards	-114
Jerome Ford – Any Time Touchdown Scorer	+240
Kenny Pickett – OVER 179.5 Passing Yards	-114
Kenny Pickett – OVER 0.5 TD Passes	-174
Diontae Johnson – OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards	-114
Steelers vs. Browns SGP Odds	+2846

A $10 wager on this Same Game Parlay would win $284.68!

Betting NFL Same Game Parlays

Same game parlay is just like a regular NFL parlay bet, except all bet selections come from different wagers within one football game.

The benefit of an NFL same game parlay is achieved by combining multiple bets so you can go for bigger wins as the odds increase.

The more bet selections you add, the more difficult it is to win, but the odds also greatly increase so is the potential winning amount.

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