Giants Vs. 49ers | TNF Player Props

Stop me if you have heard this before, but did you know that Brock Purdy – the current San Francisco 49ers starting quarterback, was the last player selected in the 2022 NFL draft?

Of course, you did.

But did you know that Purdy was just the 5th-rookie QB to ever start in a conference championship game?

Or, did you know that Purdy set a 49ers rookie record for most TD passes in a season despite only starting five regular season games?

How about the fact that Purdy has never lost a regular-season NFL football game he started?

Did I mention that Purdy’s first career start in the NFL was against Tom Brady, and when the 49ers embarrassed Tampa Bay 35-7, Mr. Irrelevant became the only QB in NFL history to beat Brady in his first career start?

Finally – Did you know that for this week’s TNF contest between San Francisco and the New York Giants, Brock Purdy has a passing yards total of 230.5 yards per game this week – and we are going to hammer one side of that number?

Now you know, so let’s go!

Brock Purdy UNDER 230.5 Passing Yards (-110)

In 11 career NFL regular season games, Brock Purdy has thrown for exactly 1,800 yards.

This week against the New York Giants, Purdy has a passing total set at 230.5 yards.

Some quick math for the group: (1,800 / 11 = 164 passing yards per game played)

If only sports betting was just that easy.

Of the nine regular-season games Purdy played last year, he only started five of them. That information is actually a very big deal for us.

We know Purdy is starting Thursday night, and for the purpose of this bet – we want to analyze just the games he started.

We aren’t overly concerned with those games where BP mopped up for Jimmy G and Trey Lance last year.

Brock Purdy as an NFL starter

Games Started	Attempts | Comps.	Passing Yards	Yards / Game
2022 – 6 starts	110 of 161 (68%)	1,308 Yards	218 Yards / GM
2023 – 2 starts	36 of 54 (66.7%)	426 Yards	213 Yards / GM
Totals	146 of 215 (67.9%)	1,734 Yards	216.5 Yards / GM

FACT CHECK – Technically, in 2022, Purdy started only five games. However, we included a game against the Miami Dolphins where Jimmy G broke his foot on the opening drive. Purdy replaced him and played every offensive series except the first one.

Our table above points out that in eight career regular-season starts, Mr. Relevant is averaging 216.5 passing yards per game.

That is a good indication of how we will lean for this bet.

If we drill in further on the Purdy stats – in the eight regular season games he has started, only twice has the 262nd overall pick thrown for more than 230 yards. (25%)

Purdy has thrown for 206 and 220 yards in his two starts this year.

It’s worth noting that the 49ers scored 30 points in both games this year despite averaging just 213 passing yards per game.

San Francisco does not have to throw the ball 40+ times to put points on the board.

I purposely avoided mentioning the absolute heater 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey is on to start this year.

In his two games so far, CMC has gone off for 268 rushing yards, averaging 6.8 yards per carry.

Is it too obvious to assume SF Head Coach Kyle Shanahan will feed CMC 20+ times again tonight?

Maybe….

But either way – 230.5 is a lot of yards for Brock Purdy, even though there appears to be no reason to call him Mr. Irrelevant anymore.

Daniel Jones OVER 37.5 Rushing Yards – BetMGM (-117)

Daniel Jones is a mobile quarterback capable of tucking the ball and picking up yards with his legs at any time.

• In 2022, Jones averaged just over 44 rushing yards per game.
• In 7 of the 16 games he started last year, DJ went over the 37.5 total set for this week.

In his last 9-games, the Giants franchise QB has gone over the 37.5 rushing yards total 5 of 9 times.

D. Jones – Last 9 Games Played

The BestOdds EDGE platform has run its Daniel Jones algorithms and suggests DJ will finish with over 40+ rushing yards against San Francisco this week.

I like this total to go over because Saquon Barkley will not be dressed for the Giants this week.

New York just doesn’t have the depth to distribute all of Barkley’s carries to their other running backs. (IMO)

I suspect the Giants will throw the ball more this week than if their star RB was healthy and good to go.

More pass plays called meant more opportunities for Jones to tuck the ball and run when he can’t find a receiver.

I’m not one who likes to bet on players to go over their totals when they are playing the very talented San Francisco defense.

However, this week, I think San Francisco might be good enough that they force the Giants QB to run more and not less because he can’t find anyone to throw the ball to.

TNF – Same Game Parlay

If you buy into our theories above, maybe this two-game parlay with our friends at FanDuel will interest you.

If we take our business to FanDuel for this two-gamer, we are presented with some enticing odds.

A two-legger at +244 returns $24.40 in profit on a $10 wager.

Wishing you the best of luck with all your NFL Week 3 picks and parlays.