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2024 Super Bowl Player Props Cheat Sheet

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Feb 11, 2024

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Super Bowl 58 is rapidly approaching, and the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs are looking to steal the Lombardi Trophy in Sin City!

The Chiefs are looking to defend their Super Bowl victory from last February and the 49ers are looking to usher in a new dynasty.

Get it? Usher, the Super Bowl Halftime Show performer?

Anyway, outside the halftime show, there will be a football game featuring some of the most electrifying talents in the NFL today.

Instead of betting solely on moneylines, spreads, or totals, bettors have a myriad of different player prop bets available to wager on in the Big Game.

Last season in Super Bowl 57, Patrick Mahomes threw for three touchdown passes. 

Can Mahomes do it again? The best odds for that outcome can be found at +320 on bet365.

Without further ado, let’s dig through some player props for Super Bowl 58!

With the best odds, of course.

Patrick Mahomes – To Throw An Interception

Currently, Mahomes is in the midst of a playoff interception-less streak.

Six straight playoff starts without throwing an interception, dating back to the 2021 AFC Championship overtime loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.

Six consecutive playoff games without an interception is a new NFL record.

In that time, Mahomes has completed 69.9% of his passes, completing 142-of-203 attempts, and tossing 14 touchdowns.

But, Mahomes did throw 14 interceptions in 16 games in the regular season, so while he holds this new NFL record, I don’t see it continuing in Super Bowl 58.

San Francisco led the NFL in interceptions this season, collecting 22 picks in 17 regular season games.

The 49ers’ defense also collected two more interceptions against Green Bay Packers’ quarterback Jordan Love in the Divisional round; both picks coming from San Francisco linebacker Dre Greenlaw.

Niners’ defensive ends Nick Bosa and Chase Young should create enough pressure in the pocket to frazzle Mahomes and force an errant throw.

Pick: Mahomes – To Throw An Interception

Christian McCaffrey – OVER 127.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards and Super Bowl MVP

Kansas City’s defense is most vulnerable to opposing running games.

The Chiefs’ have the NFL’s 17th-ranked rushing defense, allowing 113.2 rushing yards per game, and in the final eight games of the regular season, they allowed over 100 combined rushing and receiving yards to an individual running back four times.

Of all four running backs that achieved that feat against Kansas City (D’Andre Swift, Josh Jacobs, James Cook, Zamir White), none of them have the talent of Christian McCaffrey.

Also, two of those running backs were Las Vegas Raiders, so maybe the Chiefs will have issues when playing inside a divisional rivals house?

Going over 127.5 combined rushing and receiving yards seems like a tall task, but McCaffrey has accomplished that feat in 11 of 18 games played this season, which is 61.1% of games played.

The implied odds for this prop on BetRivers is 52.8%, so I like McCaffrey’s chances to go over here.

In 16 regular season games, McCaffrey averaged 17 rushing attempts and 5.2 targets per game.

I’m expecting McCaffrey’s usage to skyrocket in the Super Bowl.

In my opinion, McCaffrey was the best player in the NFL this year, and if running backs can’t win the NFL MVP Award, he can still win Super Bowl MVP.

Pick: McCaffrey – Super LVIII MVP

Best Odds: (+475) Caesars

Pick: McCaffrey – OVER 127.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards

Best Odds: (-112) BetRivers

Travis Kelce – OVER 70.5 Receiving Yards

In the NFC Championship game, the leading receiver against San Francisco was Detroit Lions’ tight end Sam LaPorta.

LaPorta caught nine of 13 targets for 97 yards, and I’m forecasting Travis Kelce to do something similar in the Super Bowl.

Kelce has been a postseason monster this year. Here’s a quick look at how Kelce has produced in three playoff games so far.

Kelce’s PostseasonTargetsReceptionsYardsTDs
Wild Card: Miami107710
Divisional: Buffalo65752
AFC Championship: Baltimore11111161

That’s an average of nine targets with 7.7 receptions for 87.3 receiving yards and a touchdown in three playoff games.

I don’t expect his targets to take a dip in the Super Bowl.

In three career Super Bowl appearances, Kelce has 22 catches for 257 yards and two touchdowns on 27 targets, which is an average of 7.3 receptions for 85.7 yards on nine targets.

Kelce is Mahomes’ No. 1 target, and I don’t expect that to change.

Plus, Kelce has to keep performing well so the camera can switch over to Taylor Swift.

When Kelce plays well, everybody wins.

Pick: Kelce – OVER 70.5 Receiving Yards

Best Odds: (-110) FanDuel

Brock Purdy – Longest Rush OVER 8.5 Yards

Could Purdy pick up a first down in the Super Bowl with his legs?

Possibly.

In the regular season, Purdy ran for 144 yards in 16 games, which is only nine rushing yards per game.

That’s not spectacular by any means.

But, Kansas City has been allowing opposing QBs to pick up some yards on the ground lately, with Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills running for 72 yards in the divisional round and Lamar Jackson running for 54 yards in the AFC Championship.

Those two quarterbacks are well-established runners.

Interestingly, even the stone-like Tua Tagovailoa picked up 25 rushing yards against the Chiefs in the Wild Card round.

Tagovailoa’s longest individual rush was 14 yards, while Allen’s was 18 yards, and Jackson’s was 21.

I think Purdy will pick up a chunk of 10 or so yards with his legs in the Super Bowl.

Pick: Purdy – Longest Rush OVER 8.5 Yards

Best Odds: (+100) BetRivers

Fred Warner – OVER 5.5 Tackles

Prop bets don’t have to be focused solely on the offensive players.

Whenever watching the San Francisco 49ers play, it seems like linebacker Fred Warner is everywhere, being involved in almost every play.

As the Niners’ team leader in tackles, I expect Warner to be flying around once again in Super Bowl 58.

Against the Chiefs in Super Bowl 54, Warner had five tackles, and he could be more involved now after being named a defensive captain for the 2023-24 season.

Warner recorded more than five tackles in only five games in the regular season, but he collected six or more tackles in each of his first two playoff games.

On any rushing plays from Kansas City or any plays near the line of scrimmage, Warner is going to be a common problem.

Pick: Warner – OVER 5.5 Tackles

Best Odds: (+115) BetMGM

Harrison Butker – OVER 7.5 Kicking Points

Prop bets don’t have to be exclusively offensive or defensive players.

To the special teams!

As of right now, Chiefs’ kicker Harrison Butker is second all-time in field goal percentage behind Baltimore Ravens’ kicker Justin Tucker.

So, Butker is pretty good.

Kansas City’s offense has not been as fantastic as they’ve been in recent years, so when they come up short of the goal line, it’s Butker’s time to shine.

Both kickers that San Francisco has faced this postseason have failed to reach eight kicking points.

Packers’ kicker Anders Carlson only recorded seven kicking points against the 49ers, missing a 41-yard field goal wide left, which would have given him 10 points.

Lions’ kicker Michael Badgley only reached seven points, too. Badgley didn’t miss, but Detroit decided going for a late fourth down instead of kicking a field goal, which would have given Badgley 10 points.

Butker has eight or more kicking points in seven of his last 10 games, and if Kansas City’s offense fails to get into the endone, Butker’s leg could be like a windmill in this one.

The value of +110 makes this bet even better.

Pick: Butker – OVER 7.5 Kicking Points

Best Odds: (+110) bet365

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About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and enter...

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