Updated: Sep 15, 2022
In 1932, Arnie Herber was the starting quarterback for the Green Bay Packers and led the NFL in passing yards with 639 total yards.
The Packers finished with a regular-season record of 10-3-1, which means that Herber was averaging just over 45 passing yards per game.
Fast forward to 2013, when Peyton Manning set an NFL record for passing yards in a season with 5,477 total yards.
Manning averaged over 340 yards per game, throwing the ball in that record-setting season.
To say the NFL game has evolved over the years would be a bit of an understatement. Today’s NFL offenses are designed to air it out.
No longer is football a game of 3-yards and a cloud of dust. Instead, offenses are now attacking teams through the air with great regularity.
Last year was no different. For the fourth time in his career, Tom Brady led the league in total passing yards with 5,316.
The last QB to repeat as NFL passing yards leader was Drew Brees in 2015 and 2016 when he combined to throw over 10,000 yards in those two seasons.
If Brady wants to repeat as passing yards leader this year, he will have to beat out a list of imposing names like Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Matt Stafford, Joe Burrow, and many others.
How Is The Winning QB Decided
There are many different metrics used to judge NFL’s best quarterbacks.
Overall record, interceptions, QB Rating, and total passing yards are just some of the ways we evaluate the performance of a starting pivot.
For this bet, it’s simple. Throw away all the advanced metrics and next-generation stats.
We are focused on one thing only: the total amount of passing yards by a single player.
It’s important to remember that we aren’t interested in passing yards per game; instead, we want to focus only on the number of total yards thrown all season.
Injuries can play a significant role in determining the winner of this bet. Identifying a QB who will start all 17 games this season is a big part of the strategy.
2022 NFL Passing Yards Leader Odds
The NFL is known for being a quarterback-driven league. With the understanding that 50 different players will suit up for a team each game, there is no doubt the most important of those 50 players is the QB.
Last season, Aaron Rodgers won his fourth MVP award but finds himself well down the odds list to lead the league in passing yards this year.
That speaks to the incredible depth at the position league-wide.
Let’s look at who the betting favorites are for this season to lead the NFL in total passing yards.
Justin Herbert – At just 24 years old, already Justin Herbert is turning heads after only two seasons in the NFL.
In his rookie season, Herbert started 15 games for the Chargers, and last year the second-year player was behind center for all 17 games.
Herbert eclipsed 5000 yards passing last year and trailed only Tom Brady for the overall league lead. Some already believe the Chargers pivot is on his way to a Hall of Fame career.
Leading the league in passing yards in only his third season will strengthen the HOF argument.
Tom Brady – What more can we say about the greatest football player in NFL history. Tom Brady first led the NFL in total passing yards way back in 2005.
In 2021, at the age of 44, Brady again led the league in passing yards with 5,316.
It would be easy to suggest that Brady is due to regress as he approaches 45 years of age. However, that story has been written several times and has yet to be true.
The last player to lead the league in passing yards back-to-back was Drew Brees. Oddsmakers are suggesting that Brady has an excellent chance to repeat as passing yards leader in 2022.
Patrick Mahomes – You know a player has set a high standard when they throw for over 4,800 yards and 37 touchdowns, yet some still consider it a down year.
Mahomes was again outstanding in 2021, but just not as great as he was in his previous two seasons.
The Chiefs QB lost all-world wide receiver Tyreek Hill this offseason. However, Kansas City still has plenty of weapons for him to throw the ball downfield.
Last year, the 5th-year QB threw 13 interceptions after combining for only 11 in his two prior seasons.
If Mahomes can eliminate even a couple of those INTs, he definitely has a chance to find himself at the top of the passing yards list.
Matthew Stafford – For years, Matthew Stafford put up huge passing numbers in Detroit, but never many wins.
In his one season with the Los Angeles Rams, Stafford continued to put up impressive passing stats and win his first Super Bowl.
Despite Odell Beckham Jr. still being unsigned, Stafford has an impressive list of receivers who can catch the ball.
Nobody is better at that right now than Cooper Kupp. Kupp had a ridiculous 145 receptions last year and 1,947 receiving yards.
There is no doubt that Stafford and Kupp will once again combine for many yards through the air this season.
Joe Burrow – The Cincinnati Bengals QB was having a great rookie season in 2020 until he tore his ACL.
Burrow returned to the Bengals in 2021 and threw for over 4,600 yards, despite being rested in the season’s final week.
Not only is Burrow one of the best QB prospects currently in the league, but he might also have the most talented trio of receivers catching balls for him.
Watching him throw for over 1,000 yards in Week 16 and 17 games last year, it’s easy to forget Big Game Joe is just 25 years old.
Josh Allen – You can add the name Josh Allen to the impressive list of young QBs starting to dominate the NFL.
Allen is one of the top considerations to lead the league in passing yards and is one of the favorites to win the NFL MVP award.
With over 4,400 yards passing and 760 yards rushing last year, Allen and the Bills’ offense will put up big numbers again this season.
The Value Bets To Consider
Aaron Rodgers – Aaron Rodgers won his fourth MVP award last season, and many assume he will be in the conversation again this year.
However, he did lose his top target in Davante Adams, and it’s unknown how that will impact his total passing yards this year.
Derek Carr – When you are in a division with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Russell Wilson, it can be challenging.
However, Derek Carr quietly finished 5th league-wide in total yards through the air last year. With the addition of Davante Adams, he might be even better this year.
Russell Wilson – The longtime Seahawks QB has jumped ship and landed in Denver with the Broncos.
It will be interesting to see how much the Broncos open up their offensive playbook now that they have finally found the QB they have been searching for since Peyton Manning left.
NFL Passing Yards Leader – Betting Strategies
There isn’t much to overthink with this bet. We are looking to identify NFL gunslingers and hopefully pick a player or two with the ability to be healthy year-round.
Top draft picks are used on players who will eventually develop into franchise players each year.
However, it is essential to remember that as much hype as these rookies come in with, very few can step in and lead their team right away. Fewer still can compete with the elite veterans around the league.
A bettor will want to focus on QBs with a past history of throwing the ball a lot. Bettors might also want to analyze any coaching changes that will impact a QB.
If a new Head Coach or a new Offensive-Coordinator has been hired, make sure you do your homework on their coaching style.
There could be a learning curve for a QB to understand the new offense, and even if it takes only a couple of games to learn it, that could be the difference between finishing first and finishing outside the top five.
Identifying teams with running backs who catch a lot of passes can also help. For years, the NFL game spent first and second down handing the ball off to a running back.
Today’s offenses are designed to get players in motion.
A running back might not take a handoff on first down today, but instead, catch a swing pass coming out of the backfield. Short, quick passes have replaced many first and second-down run plays.
Lastly, a bettor should not just focus on the wide receivers a QB will be throwing to but also include tight-ends and running backs into their strategy.
Players like Travis Kelce, Kyle Pitts, and Darren Waller are all tight-ends who can provide a significant mismatch on the field.
They might not break a 70-yard touchdown down the sidelines as a speedy receiver can, but picking up 10 and 15-yard chunks over the middle of the field can also add up over time.
NFL Most Passing Yard Leaders
|2021||Tom Brady||5,316 yds||Buccaneers|
|2020||Deshaun Watson||4,823 yds||Texans|
|2019||Jameis Winston||5,109 yds||Buccaneers|
|2018||Ben Roethlisberger||5,129 yds||Steelers|
|2017||Tom Brady||4,577 yds||Patriots|
|2016||Drew Brees||5,208 yds||Saints|
|2015||Drew Brees||4,870 yds||Saints|
|2013||Peyton Manning||5,477 yds||Broncos|
|2012||Drew Brees||5,177 yds||Saints|
Always Shop Around
The most significant advantage a bettor has over the sportsbooks is their ability to shop around and find their very Best Odds.
Professional bettors get excited when their models produce an edge that gives them a 3 – 4% advantage.
Shopping around for your best futures and prop odds can provide a far greater edge to a bettor than 4%.
Across the different operators, the odds for each QB to lead the league in passing will differ. Sometimes slightly, sometimes by a significant amount.
A $100 bettor wagering on a player who is +800 compared to that same player being listed at +1000 somewhere else is a considerable difference.
Give yourself the best possible chance to beat the sportsbooks by shopping around to find the odds that work best for you.
How To Bet On Passing Yards Leader Betting Odds
1. Log into your sportsbook account.
2. Look for the ‘Betting Odds for NFL’ tab.
3. Click on ‘Player Futures’ to open the menu.
4. Select ‘Most Passing Yards’ to display the odds.
5. Place the bet from the bet-slip window shown on the right of the screen.
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