NFL Passing Yards Leader Odds
Malcolm Darnley
Updated: Aug 25, 2023
In 1932, Arnie Herber was the starting quarterback for the Green Bay Packers and led the NFL in passing yards with 639 total yards.
The Packers finished with a regular-season record of 10-3-1, which means that Herber averaged just over 45 passing yards per game.
Fast forward to 2013, when Peyton Manning set an NFL record for passing yards in a season with 5,477 total yards.
Manning averaged over 340 yards per game, throwing the ball in that record-setting season.
To say the NFL game has evolved over the years is a vast understatement. Today’s NFL offenses are designed to air it out early and often.
No longer is football a game of 3-yards and a cloud of dust. Instead, offenses are now attacking teams through the air with great regularity.
Last year was no different. For the second time in his career, Patrick Mahomes led the league in total passing yards with 5,250.
The last QB to repeat as NFL passing yards leader was Drew Brees in 2015 and 2016, when he combined to throw over 10,000 yards in those two seasons.
If Mahomes wants to repeat as passing yards leader this year, he must beat out a list of imposing names like Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, and many others.
How Is The Winning QB Decided
There are many different metrics used to judge the NFL’s best quarterbacks.
Overall record, interceptions, QB Rating, and total passing yards are just some of the ways we evaluate the performance of a starting quarterback.
For this bet, it’s simple. Throw away all the advanced metrics and next-generation stats.
We are focused on only the total number of passing yards by a Quarterback.
It’s important to remember that we aren’t interested in passing yards per game; instead, we want to focus only on the number of total yards thrown all season.
Injuries can play a significant role in determining the winner of this bet. Identifying a QB who will start all 17 games this season is a big part of the strategy.
2023 NFL Passing Yards Leader Odds
The NFL is known for being a quarterback-driven league.
With the understanding that 50 different players will suit up for a team each game, there is no doubt the most important of those 50 players is the QB.
Patrick Mahomes won his second MVP award in 2022, and at +250, he is the definite betting favorite to repeat for this award.
However, the level of QB play across the league might be at an all-time high.
Mahomes definitely has a chance to repeat as the winner of this bet, but there are a lot of other great quarterbacks who will also throw for a lot of yards in 2023.
The Favorites
Patrick Mahomes +250 – KC Chiefs
At the age of 27, Patrick Mahomes already has two Super Bowls, two MVP awards, two passing yard titles, and over 24,000 career passing yards, not to mention numerous other awards and accolades.
In 2022, Mahomes won his second NFL passing yards title, his second MVP award, and his second Super Bowl.
2023 will be considered a good year if he can repeat his performance from last season.
Mahomes doesn’t have household names playing the wide receiver position, but he has his favorite target again, Travis Kelce.
In 2021, with Tyreek Hill on the roster, Mahomes threw for 4,839 yards. Last year, after Hill left for Miami, Mahomes threw for 5,250 yards.
Mahomes can make many WRs look very good. Even Marquez Valdez-Scantling.
Justin Herbert +500 – LA Chargers
San Diego Chargers legend Philip Rivers retired with over 63,000 career passing yards and is 5th on the all-time passing yards list.
Rivers was a backup in his first two seasons in the league. In his first three years as a starter, the Hall of Famer threw for a combined 10,549 passing yards.
Justin Herbert entered the NFL and was named the Chargers starting QB as a rookie.
In his first three seasons, Herbert has already thrown for over 14,000 yards and is on pace to have a Hall of Fame career.
In 2022, only Mahomes had more passing yards than Herbert. The 2020 sixth-overall pick threw for more than 4,700 yards.
It was the second time in his three-year career he reached that total.
In case you are wondering, Philip Rivers threw for more than 4,700 yards twice in his 17-year career.
Joe Burrow +800 – CIN Bengals
- Joe Cool
- Joey Franchise
- Smokin’ Joe
- Joe Shiesty
- Joe Brrr
- Joey B
Joe Burrow has almost as many nicknames as he does NFL passing yards.
Despite missing six games in his rookie season with an ACL injury, Burrow already has over 11,000 passing yards in just three seasons.
In 2022, Burrow trailed only Mahomes for the most passing yards averaged per game.
The Bengals once again return Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at the WR position, so Joe Shiesty, Joe Cool, Joey Franchise, or whatever you like to call him, will have talented weapons to throw to in 2023.
The Contenders
Josh Allen +1000 – BUF Bills
When it comes to leading the league in passing yards, Josh Allen might be hurt by his own athleticism and his ability to tuck the ball away and run for big yardage when opportunities arise.
Allen threw for over 4,200 yards in 2022, the third consecutive year he has gone over that total. However, the former 7th overall pick out of Wyoming also averaged almost 50 yards rushing per game.
If there was reason to be concerned in Buffalo this year, Stefon Diggs has been very outspoken about his issues with the Bills offense.
Allen has already suggested that he and Diggs are just super competitive, but it might be enough to scare off potential bettors for Allen with this bet.
Kirk Cousins +1400 – MIN Vikings
Kirk Cousins has been an NFL starting QB for seasons. In seven of those eight years, Cousins has managed to throw for more than 4,000 yards, with 2022 being another big year for the veteran QB.
The Vikings won 13 games and the NFC North division last year, primarily due to Cousins throwing for 4,500 yards.
That is the most passing yards he had thrown in a season since 2016 when Captain Kirk was under center for the Washington Football Team.
Although Minnesota won’t have RB Dalvin Cook this year, they will have all-world WR Justin Jefferson. In 2022, Jefferson went off for over 1,800 receiving yards, and expect Cousins to be looking his way a lot in 2023 as well.
Trevor Lawrence +1600 – JAX Jaguars
When the Jacksonville Jaguars selected Urban Meyer as their Head Coach, they had no idea how far back they were setting their franchise.
Meyer achieved great success at the University of Ohio State, but at the NFL level, where his methods of motivating didn’t resonate with professionals, Meyer was a colossal bust.
No single player was more affected by the selection of Urban Meyer as HC than Trevor Lawrence.
Coming out of school, Lawrence was a National Champion, Heisman award winner, and the consensus number one pick. However, year one in the NFL for Lawrence did not go nearly as most football fans projected.
In his second year in the league, no longer under the guidance of Urban Meyer, Trevor Lawrence returned to the Trevor Lawrence most fans expected to see at the NFL level.
Lawrence topped 4,000 yards passing as an NFL sophomore, and with Calvin Ridley coming back from a gambling suspension in 2023, many believe Lawrence could go off for a lot more this year.
Two Value Bets To Consider
Tua Tagovailoa +1800 – MIA Dolphins
In 2022, Tua Tagovailoa struggled with some injuries, specifically concussion issues that limited his time on the field.
However, when Tua could play, he was one of the most effective QBs in the entire league.
The Dolphins have tremendous receiving weapons for any QB who gets under center in Miami. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle might just be the best receiving duo in the entire league.
With over 270 yards passing per game last year, Tua was fifth in the NFL for average passing yards per game.
Expect 2023 to be a big year for Tua if he can stay healthy.
Geno Smith +3000 – SEA Seahawks
When Russell Wilson was shipped out of Seattle, giving Geno Smith the starting QB job for the Seahawks, how many of us expected the Seattle offense to get better and not worse under Geno?
| Quarterback | 2022 Passing YDS | QB Rating | Team Record |
| Geno Smith – SEA | 4,282 | 100.9 | 9-8 |
| Russell Wilson – DEN | 3,524 | 84.4 | 5-12 |
Year one in Denver for Russ was a bit of a disaster, but not for Geno in Seattle.
On offense, the Seahawks have a lot of really great playmakers. DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and 2023 first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba make up a very talented receiving group.
Don’t be surprised when Geno Smith surprises us all again with another big statistical season.
NFL Passing Yards Leader – Betting Strategies
There isn’t much to overthink with this bet. We are looking to identify NFL gunslingers and hopefully pick a player or two who can be healthy year-round.
Top draft picks are used on players who will eventually develop into franchise players each year.
However, it is essential to remember that as much hype as these rookies come in with, very few can lead their team immediately.
Fewer still can compete with the elite veterans around the league.
A bettor will want to focus on QBs with a long history of throwing the ball. Bettors might also want to analyze any coaching changes impacting a QB.
If a new Head Coach or offensive coordinator has been hired, ensure you do your homework on their coaching style.
There could be a learning curve for a QB to understand the new offense, and even if it takes only a couple of games to learn it, that could be the difference between finishing first and finishing outside the top five.
Identifying teams with running backs who catch a lot of passes can also help. For years, the NFL game spent first and second down handing the ball off to a running back.
Today’s offenses are designed to get players in motion.
A running back might not take a handoff on first down today but instead, catch a swing pass coming out of the backfield. Short, quick passes have replaced many first and second-down run plays.
Lastly, a bettor should not just focus on the wide receivers a QB will be throwing to but also include tight ends and running backs into their strategy.
Players like Travis Kelce, Kyle Pitts, and Darren Waller are all tight ends who can provide a significant mismatch on the field.
They might not break a 70-yard touchdown down the sidelines as a speedy receiver can, but picking up ten and 15-yard chunks over the middle of the field can also add up over time.
NFL Most Passing Yard Leaders
| Year | Player | Passing Yards | Team |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes | 5,250 yds | Chiefs |
| 2021 | Tom Brady | 5,316 yds | Buccaneers |
| 2020 | Deshaun Watson | 4,823 yds | Texans |
| 2019 | Jameis Winston | 5,109 yds | Buccaneers |
| 2018 | Ben Roethlisberger | 5,129 yds | Steelers |
| 2017 | Tom Brady | 4,577 yds | Patriots |
| 2016 | Drew Brees | 5,208 yds | Saints |
| 2015 | Drew Brees | 4,870 yds | Saints |
| 2014 | Drew BreesBen Roethlisberger | 4,952 yds | SaintsSteelers |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | 5,477 yds | Broncos |
| 2012 | Drew Brees | 5,177 yds | Saints |
Always Shop Around
A bettor’s most significant advantage over the sportsbooks is their ability to shop around and find their Best Odds.
Professional bettors get excited when their models produce an edge that gives them a 3 – 4% advantage.
Shopping for your best futures and prop odds can provide a far greater edge to a bettor than 4%.
Across the different operators, the odds for each QB to lead the league in passing will differ. Sometimes slightly, sometimes by a significant amount.
A $100 bettor wagering on a player who is +800 compared to that player being listed at +1000 somewhere else is a considerable difference.
Give yourself the best chance to beat the sportsbooks by shopping around to find the odds that work best for you.
How To Bet On Passing Yards Leader Betting Odds
1. Log into your sportsbook account.
2. Look for the ‘Betting Odds for NFL’ tab.
3. Click on ‘Player Futures’ to open the menu.
4. Select ‘Most Passing Yards’ to display the odds.
5. Place the bet from the bet-slip window on the screen’s right side.
