NFL Parlay Betting Strategies
Malcolm Darnley
Updated: Jun 24, 2023
If you are looking for current NFL picks for parlay bets. You can find today’s picks here.
NFL Parlay Betting can be an exciting way to spend a Sunday.
A bettor can build their parlay card with between two to fifteen games and chase a big payout.
However, parlays can also be difficult to cash and aren’t necessarily the most effective way to build your bankroll, even when those four-team parlay odds look so enticing.
A sports bettor might want to build a parlay ticket for many reasons instead of placing a traditional single-event wager.
Let’s dive into all those reasons and some parlay strategies below.
Why Bet Parlays?
Parlays Are Fun
When breaking down sports betting strategies, we often focus on the data, analytics, and decision-making required to beat the sportsbook.
We don’t often talk about how sports betting can be an enjoyable way to watch a sporting event and having a big parlay card in hand can enhance the overall experience.
Sometimes the thrill of chasing a big payout is the only reason we need to build a ticket.
We Spot An Edge
Another reason a sports bettor might want to play a parlay card is that they spot an edge or have an opportunity to play some correlated odds.
By correlated odds, we are talking about events where if one bet wins, the other is more likely to win as well.
Let’s give a correlated betting odds example.
- Eagles vs. Bears Over/Under is set at 42.5 – (-110)
- Jalen Hurts Total Passing Yards Prop Bet is set at 268.5 Yards – (-110)
Some sportsbooks will allow us to bet those two events on a regular parlay ticket, and some will consider that a: Same Game Parlay (SGP)
If a sports bettor believes that the Eagles vs. Bears game will go over the total of 42.5, they might also think that Jalen Hurts is more likely to go over his 268.5 passing yards prop total.
Therefore, they may want to build those two events into a parlay ticket because they believe the odds are correlated.
That means if one of those events occurs, the other one is likely to occur as well.
If Hurts throws for 330 yards and the Eagles score a lot of points, then the parlay ticket is in a good spot to cash.
Free Play Or Bonus Money
With so many sportsbooks legalizing and looking to earn their slice of the betting market, bettors have more promotions and bonuses than ever before.
One of the most popular ways bettors can wager their free plays or bonus money is by building a parlay ticket.
The belief is that the money was free, and what better opportunity to chase a big payout than with a parlay ticket paid for by bonus money?
Advantages Of Betting Parlays
The most significant benefit to creating parlay tickets is that it allows us to chase a large payout without placing a large bet.
NFL Sundays provide a full slate of games for fans to enjoy. The schedule is set up to work perfectly with those who enjoy parlay betting.
It’s easy to build a ticket with four or more events, with many games and bets to choose from.
Disadvantages Of Betting Parlays
The disadvantages of parlay betting are pretty obvious.
The more bets we add to our ticket, the more difficult it becomes to win.
Experienced gamblers, the few who can show a profit against the sportsbooks, are often single-game bettors looking to take advantage of a particular edge they have spotted.
The more games we add to a ticket, the less of an edge we tend to have.
NFL Parlay Betting Strategies
Always Shop around
The single most important strategy a bettor can embrace when building a parlay ticket is their ability to shop around.
Let’s use some NFL futures odds to build a 2023 NFL parlay and see what we mean.
2023 NFL Futures Parlay
| Two-Game Parlay | DraftKings Odds | FanDuel Odds | Caesars Odds |
| Packers to win the Super Bowl | DraftKings +3000 | FanDuel +3500 | Caesars +3800 |
| Dak Prescott to win NFL MVP | DraftKings +1800 | FanDuel +2000 | Caesars +2200 |
| $10 Bettor Results | $5,800 Payout | $7,500 Payout | $8,960 Payout |
The above table shows us the different payout possibilities for a simple two-event NFL parlay if we had shopped around using three different sportsbooks.
We can see that the Green Bay Packers to win the Super Bowl are +3500 at FanDuel and +3800 at Caesars, which is a significant difference from the +3000 odds on the Packers being offered by DraftKings.
The odds on Dak Prescott to win the NFL MVP award are similar across all three sportsbooks but still different enough to impact our overall payout.
In the example above, if the Packers were to be crowned Super Bowl champions and Dak Prescott was named the NFL MVP, a $10 bettor would win $5,800, placing that parlay with DraftKings.
That same bettor would win $7,5000 if they placed that same parlay bet with FanDuel and almost $9,000 with Caesars.
That one parlay example just provided us with $1,500 reasons to shop around for our Bets Odds.
Limit Your Bets
If your strategy is to build an outrageous parlay ticket and then sit back to watch all the action while chasing a huge payout, there are better strategies than limiting your bets.
However, if you are using parlays to try and grow your bankroll, then a bettor will want to be very selective of the games they add to their ticket.
If we compare parlay betting to flipping a coin, we can gauge the odds of success more clearly.
Coin Flipping Odds
The odds of flipping heads twice in a row is 25%.
The odds of flipping heads four times in a row is 6.25%.
Those odds give us an idea of the difficulty involved with parlay betting and how we need to use caution and patience long term to be successful.
NFL parlay betting can prove to be an enjoyable way to spend a Sunday.
A sports bettor must determine and then play the best NFL strategy for them.
