Saints Vs. Panthers | MNF Player Props

According to our friends at BetMGM, of all the money wagered on the Rashid Shaheed receiving yards prop for tonight’s game, 99% of that money is on the OVER 36.5 yards (-115).

That’s enough to steer you towards the under right?

Well, in the words of one Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friend…”

Rashid Shaheed Receiving Prop and Odds

BetMGM	DraftKings	FanDuel	Caesars
36.5 | -115	36.5 | -125	40.5 | -110	40.5 | -115

A quick glance at the odds tonight shows that BetMGM offers the best odds for anyone who likes Shaheed to go over his total tonight, which helps explain why the betting split is so lopsided.

However, 99% of the bets on one side caught our attention. Is the betting public on to something with this total that maybe the sportsbooks have missed?

Let’s find out.

Rashid Shaheed OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards

The last time we saw Saints’ WR Michael Thomas play an entire season of football came back in 2019.

During the 2019 season, Thomas was dominant. Since then, injuries have derailed him.

Michael Thomas 2019 and Beyond

Year(s)	Games	Receptions	TD’s	Receiving Yards
2019	16	149	9	1,725
2020, ‘21, ‘22, ‘23	11	61	3	670

In 2022, without Thomas on the roster, Saints’ WR Rashid Shaheed closed the season, posting some positive numbers for an undrafted player coming out of Weber State.

Rashid Shaheed’s Last 6 Games in 2022

• Shaheed went over 36.5 receiving yards five times. (5-of-6)
• In four of his final six games, Shaheed went over 50 receiving yards, and in three of those final six games, he went for over 70 receiving yards.
• In total, Shaheed averaged 63.6 receiving yards per game over the final six weeks of the Saints season.

However, that was all before Michael Thomas returned to the Saints’ lineup, as he has done this year.

Sportsbooks might believe that with Thomas returning as the number two receiver behind Chris Olave, Shaheed’s totals must suffer.

In Week 1 – Shaheed’s snap count compared to Thomas and Olave was low.

Week 1 – Saints Snap Count

Player	Offensive Snaps
Michael Thomas	52
Chris Olave	51
Rashid Shaheed	35

However, during the final six games of 2022, Shaheed’s offensive snap count was only 38 plays per game.

In Week 1:

• Shaheed played 35 snaps
• Was targeted six times
• Had five catches for 89 yards.

Shaheed has proven that with 35-40 plays a game, 50+ receiving yards is actually in play for him.

Just like the betting public, I believe the sportsbooks have this number set low. The fact that you can find it with BetMGM at 36.5 is exciting.

I’m on Rashid Shaheed, OVER 36.5 receiving yards.

BestOdds: BetMGM (-115)

Bryce Young OVER 28.5 Passing Attempts

For those that have read me before, I try to be upfront with my efforts of not over analyzing data.

We have an NFL regular season database of exactly one game for Carolina QB Bryce Young.

But in that one game, Young was 20-for-38 for 146 yards in a 24-10 loss.

Here is what interests me.

The score after the first quarter?

0-0.

The score at halftime?

7-7.

The score after the third quarter?

10-10.

The point I am trying to make is that the Panthers were very much in a close game and still felt compelled to throw the ball 38 times.

Many of those were short ball control passes. Twenty completions for 146 yards might show us that Young still has work to do on getting the ball downfield.

However, for the purpose of this bet – I will grab the over on Bryce Young’s Passing attempts until Carolina shows me the sportsbooks have it right at 28 or less.

BestOdds: FanDuel (-114)