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Rams Vs. Bengals | MNF Player Props

Malcolm Darnley

Updated: Sep 27, 2023


Three weeks ago, I didn’t know who Puka Nacua was. Now, if you don’t have a hot take on Nacua’s MNF receiving total, are you even an NFL prop bettor?

First – we remember.

On September 21st, 1970 – almost 53 years to the day, the New York Jets and the Cleveland Browns played the first-ever Monday Night Football game.

TeamFirst DownsRushing YardsPassing Yards
NY Jets31168 yards305 yards
CLE Browns2076 yards145 yards
(first ever MNF game stats)

At first glance, it would appear like Joe Namath and the Jets had their way with Cleveland that night.

But ‘Broadway Joe’ threw three interceptions, and New York was penalized 13 times for 161 yards on their way to losing 31-21.

In some ways, the game of football has evolved and become much more analytical and complicated since 1970.

In some ways, like with the importance of turnovers and penalty yards (or with the Jets losing because of those things) it has stayed exactly the same.

Matthew Stafford + Puka Nacua – Same Game Parlay

The most popular bet for this game is Puka Nacua OVER 5.5 receptions.

In fact, BetMGM has released numbers showing that 99% of their betting handle is on the OVER for this bet.

With 35 targets in two games and a 36% target share, it’s easy to see why the betting public is all in on Puka.

Unfortunately, if you aren’t in on Puka over 5.5 by now, the moneyline for that bet has been squeezed dry.

You might have to lay as much as -200 to play it at 5.5 receptions.

But if you are still looking for some Puka action tonight – may we suggest another option for you?

Our option comes in the form of a Puka + Stafford Same Game Parlay.

Let’s go.

Puka Nacua Over 70.5 Receiving Yards

Without getting overly dramatic or personal, Cooper Kupp is not the most athletically gifted wide receiver playing in the NFL.

However, when Cooper plays an NFL game, he averages more than ten targets per game and a target share of over 34%.

Although Cooper isn’t the most gifted NFL receiver, he is the one who gets to catch the most passes because the Rams throw him the ball more than any other team throws their wide receivers the ball.

Cooper Kupp has missed the Rams first two games, and Puka Nacua has been filling in for him.

If you were to look up the current NFL leaders for most targets this year, Puka Nacua currently ranks fourth behind names like Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams.

But all of those guys have played three games.

Puka has only played two.

2023 Targets Per Game

PlayerTargets per game
Puka Nacua17.5 (35 in two games)
Keenan Allen13 (39 in three games)
Justin Jefferson12.7 (38 in three games)
Davante Adams12.3 (37 in three games)
Tyreek Hill11.7 (35 in three games)

During the 2005 season, Marvin Harrison set an NFL record by being targeted 205 times. That is an average of 12 targets per game.

Currently, Nacua is on pace to shatter that record, and as long as LA is going to target him a lot, we will continue to ride his over.

Matthew Stafford Over 247.5 Passing Yards

Information is great.

Last 10 Games – M. Stafford Pass Yards

(Betting Analytics Courtesy: BestOdds EDGE)

A quick glance at his pretty bar chart tells us that Matthew Stafford has gone over 249.5 passing yards total in six of his last ten games.

When we deep dive into Stafford and the Rams passing attempts per game, Stafford’s pretty little bar chart becomes even more compelling.

Last 10 Games – M. Stafford Pass Attempts

(Betting Analytics Courtesy: BestOdds EDGE)

This graph reminds us there is a correlation between passing attempts and passing yards.

In his last ten games, five times, Stafford has 35 passing attempts or fewer.

  • When Stafford had 35 attempts or fewer, his under 249.5 total hit 80%. (4 of 5)
  • When Stafford threw the ball more than 35 times, his over 249.5 total hit 100%. (5 of 5)

This year, the Rams have come out throwing the ball. Stafford and the Rams lead the league in passing attempts per game with 46.5.

Our data above suggests that 46.5 passing attempts will lead to a lot more passing yards than 250.

Same Game Parlay Best Odds

When it comes to getting this sweet MNF two-legger down, FanDuel and their SGP have us covered.

We are even lucky enough to catch a yardage break on Stafford. Where most sportsbooks are at 249.5, FanDuel is at 247.5.

Hey – You never know people. Take the two yards when it’s there.

Best of luck with all your Monday Night picks and parlays, and if you want to mix in some props from Eagles-Bucs tonight, we got you covered here too with our best bets from the other half of the MNF Doubleheader.

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