Saints Vs. Panthers | MNF Player Props

Malcolm Darnley

Updated: Sep 19, 2023

  • Claim Bet $10 Get $200 Bonus Bets
    CLAIM NOW 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER, Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117(MI).

According to our friends at BetMGM, of all the money wagered on the Rashid Shaheed receiving yards prop for tonight’s game, 99% of that money is on the OVER 36.5 yards (-115).

That’s enough to steer you towards the under right?

Well, in the words of one Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friend…”

Rashid Shaheed Receiving Prop and Odds

BetMGMDraftKingsFanDuelCaesars
36.5 | -11536.5 | -12540.5 | -11040.5 | -115

A quick glance at the odds tonight shows that BetMGM offers the best odds for anyone who likes Shaheed to go over his total tonight, which helps explain why the betting split is so lopsided.

However, 99% of the bets on one side caught our attention. Is the betting public on to something with this total that maybe the sportsbooks have missed?

Let’s find out.

Rashid Shaheed OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards

The last time we saw Saints’ WR Michael Thomas play an entire season of football came back in 2019.

During the 2019 season, Thomas was dominant. Since then, injuries have derailed him.

Michael Thomas 2019 and Beyond

Year(s)GamesReceptionsTD’sReceiving Yards
20191614991,725
2020, ‘21, ‘22, ‘2311613670

In 2022, without Thomas on the roster, Saints’ WR Rashid Shaheed closed the season, posting some positive numbers for an undrafted player coming out of Weber State.

Rashid Shaheed’s Last 6 Games in 2022

  • Shaheed went over 36.5 receiving yards five times. (5-of-6)
  • In four of his final six games, Shaheed went over 50 receiving yards, and in three of those final six games, he went for over 70 receiving yards.
  • In total, Shaheed averaged 63.6 receiving yards per game over the final six weeks of the Saints season.

However, that was all before Michael Thomas returned to the Saints’ lineup, as he has done this year.

Sportsbooks might believe that with Thomas returning as the number two receiver behind Chris Olave, Shaheed’s totals must suffer.

In Week 1 – Shaheed’s snap count compared to Thomas and Olave was low.

Week 1 – Saints Snap Count

PlayerOffensive Snaps
Michael Thomas52
Chris Olave51
Rashid Shaheed35

However, during the final six games of 2022, Shaheed’s offensive snap count was only 38 plays per game.

In Week 1:

  • Shaheed played 35 snaps
  • Was targeted six times
  • Had five catches for 89 yards.

Shaheed has proven that with 35-40 plays a game, 50+ receiving yards is actually in play for him.

Just like the betting public, I believe the sportsbooks have this number set low. The fact that you can find it with BetMGM at 36.5 is exciting.

I’m on Rashid Shaheed, OVER 36.5 receiving yards.

BestOdds: BetMGM (-115)

Bryce Young OVER 28.5 Passing Attempts

For those that have read me before, I try to be upfront with my efforts of not over analyzing data.

We have an NFL regular season database of exactly one game for Carolina QB Bryce Young.

But in that one game, Young was 20-for-38 for 146 yards in a 24-10 loss.

Here is what interests me.

The score after the first quarter?

0-0.

The score at halftime?

7-7.

The score after the third quarter?

10-10.

The point I am trying to make is that the Panthers were very much in a close game and still felt compelled to throw the ball 38 times.

Many of those were short ball control passes. Twenty completions for 146 yards might show us that Young still has work to do on getting the ball downfield.

However, for the purpose of this bet – I will grab the over on Bryce Young’s Passing attempts until Carolina shows me the sportsbooks have it right at 28 or less.

BestOdds: FanDuel (-114)

    Bet $10 Get $200
    Rating
    BetMGM BonusBet $10 Get $200 In Bonus Bets
    BetMGM Highlights
    Competitive Odds
    Numerous Promotions
    Reliable Customer Support
    Legally operating in:
    Payment Methods:
    visa
    mastercard
    paypal
    Play now21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER, Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117(MI).
    Bet $5 Get $200 & $150 No Sweat Bet
    Rating
    DraftKings BonusBet Bet $5 Get $200 & $150 No Sweat Bet
    DraftKings Highlights
    Competitive Odds
    Fantastic Mobile App
    Game Specific Promotions
    Legally operating in:
    Payment Methods:
    visa
    mastercard
    paypal
    Play now21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER, Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117(MI).
    Bet $1 Get $365
    Rating
    Bet365 BonusBet $1 Get $365 In Bonus Bets
    Bet365 Highlights
    Niche Betting Markets
    Superb User Experience
    Excellent Payment Providers
    21+ Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
    Legally operating in:
    Payment Methods:
    visa
    mastercard
    paypal
    Play now21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER, Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117(MI).
    Bet $5 Get $200
    Rating
    FanDuel BonusBet $5 Get $200 In Bonus Bets
    FanDuel Highlights
    A Trusted Brand
    Same Game Parlays
    Live Streaming & Early Cashout
    21+ Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
    Legally operating in:
    Payment Methods:
    visa
    mastercard
    paypal
    Play now21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER, Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117(MI).
    $250 Bonus Bets
    Rating
    Betway BonusGet Bonus Bets Up To $250
    Betway Highlights
    Generous Bonus
    Early Cash Out Feature
    Highly Rated Betting App
    Legally operating in:
    Payment Methods:
    visa
    mastercard
    paypal
    Play now21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER, Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117(MI).
    10x$100 2nd Chance Bets
    Rating
    PointsBet BonusBet 10x$100 2nd Chance Bets
    PointsBet Highlights
    High Quality Mobile App
    Extensive Betting Markets
    PointsBetting Special Features
    Legally operating in:
    Payment Methods:
    visa
    mastercard
    paypal
    Play now21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER, Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117(MI).
    $500 Deposit Match In 1X Bonus Money
    Rating
    BetRivers BonusGet $500 Deposit Match In 1X Bonus Money
    BetRivers Highlights
    Competitive Odds
    1x Wagering Requirement
    Large Selection Of Markets
    Legally operating in:
    Payment Methods:
    visa
    mastercard
    paypal
    Play now21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER, Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117(MI).

About the author

Malcolm loves to watch all kinds of different sports. He also writes about them.