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MNF Predictions Week 1 | Bills Vs. Jets


Brent Booher

Updated: Sep 11, 2023

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Aaron Rodgers’ first game as a Jet.

A battle of AFC contenders.

Monday Night Football.

You know the storylines going in. This should be a thriller to cap off the first week of the NFL season.

Without further ado, here are our favorite player props for Buffalo’s visit to MetLife Stadium.

Garrett Wilson OVER 67.5 Receiving Yards

While Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb figure to log quite of bit of time on offense with Aaron Rodgers, all eyes are on the reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and how he will fare in his second NFL season with a 4x NFL MVP delivering him the football.

If any of you watched Hard Knocks this offseason, you could immediately see the chemistry forming between Rodgers and Wilson as the Jets are set to begin their season.

Rodgers has been very vocal this offseason as to how special he thinks Garrett Wilson can be as an NFL wide receiver, and they connected on a gorgeous touchdown pass in the final preseason game of the year.

While there will certainly be a continual process in Rodgers and Wilson ironing out the kinks, the two players are just too talented to not want to nibble on a player prop or two in their season debut.

The prop we are going to focus on is that of Garrett Wilson’s receiving total, which is set at 67.5 yards for tonight.

Last season, Garrett Wilson had a 92-yard receiving day against the Bills at MetLife Stadium and followed that up with a 78-yard receiving day a month later in Buffalo.

The 92-yard receiving day came with Zach Wilson at QB. Aaron Rodgers, in case you don’t know, is a bit better at quarterback than Zach Wilson.

While the Bills had the 6th best defense in the NFL a season ago, they were a middle-of-the-pack group at defending the pass (15th overall) and Garrett Wilson did have success against their secondary.

We’ve already seen massive days from the likes of Calvin Ridley and Chris Olave, each of whom is also playing with new QBs they aren’t fully accustomed to playing with.

Would it surprise anyone if Garrett Wilson has a big first game with Aaron Rodgers?

Give us the OVER on Garrett’s receiving total here.

Best Odds: BetMGM (-115)

Breece Hall UNDER 34.5 Rushing Yards

Before Garrett Wilson surged to the top of the Offensive Rookie of the Yard Award race, Breece Hall was well on his way to stake his claim to that same distinction before a torn ACL ended his season.

Breece Hall makes his return from that knee injury tonight, and suddenly finds himself in a somewhat crowded timeshare in the Jets’ backfield with former Vikings’ Pro Bowler Dalvin Cook and Michael Carter, in addition to what will likely be more passing with Aaron Rodgers now in town.

Basically, there are a few things working against Breece in his return to action tonight.

Last season, when Breece was fully healthy but still getting acclimated to the pro game, the Jets faced a tough Ravens team in the opener at MetLife Stadium.

Hall would rush for only 23 yards on six attempts.

The Bills’ rush defense (5th overall in 2022) wasn’t very far removed from the Ravens’ rush defense (3rd overall in 2022) a season ago, and we can envision a similar workload tonight as Hall gets back into game shape following limited reps in training camp and the preseason.

The total on this is a low 34.5, so there will be a bit of a sweat involved, especially if he were to pop off a good sized run, but we think he will narrowly stay under the total tonight and will have more attractive rushing total numbers going forward this season.

Best Odds: FanDuel (-110)

Josh Allen UNDER 251.5 Passing Yards

A season ago, Josh Allen struggled to get things going in both matchups against the Jets, as he averaged only 176 passing yards per game against Robert Saleh’s stingy group.

In fact, the Jets’ pass defense was a fortress for most teams a season ago, as only two quarterbacks (Joe Burrow with 275 yards and Jared Goff with 252 yards) were able to top 250 yards against them all season.

With Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed roaming around the Jets’ secondary and one of the nastiest front sevens in all of football, Josh Allen starting the season with a massive night through the air just doesn’t seem overly likely.

Josh Allen should have a great season and produce more often than not, it just looks as though he could struggle a bit tonight.

Best Odds: DraftKings (-115)

James Cook OVER 62.5 Rush + Rec. Yards

Unlike the Jets’ situation at running back, the Bills’ situation seems far less murky when trying to figure out who will get the bulk of the touches on offense.

After letting Devin Singletary walk to Houston, the Bills cleared the lane for the former Georgia Bulldog (and Dalvin Cook’s younger brother) to be the starting running back in Buffalo.

And while Cook will share touches with former Patriots’ RB Damien Harris, Cook will see a lot more opportunities on offense than he did a season ago.

The magic number for Cook in tonight’s game is 12.

As in, when James Cook touched the ball at least 12 times in a game last season, good things tended to happen.

Cook had 12 or more touches in four games last season, and in three of those games he flew over the 62.5 yard total.

Now, we’ve already touched upon how tough this Jets’ defense looked a season ago and how tough they could be this season, but Cook is explosive enough to chew into this total on a few touches and we think his improved workload will get him over the bar in tonight’s game.

Best Odds: DraftKings (-110)


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