What Are NFL Key Numbers

If you were to ask an NFL fan, “Who is the greatest player ever to wear the number 12?”

Everyone would respond the same. “It’s The G.O.A.T… Tom Brady.”

Green Bay Packers QB Brett Favre immortalized the number 4, wearing it for 16 seasons while putting up Hall of Fame numbers.

Dan Marino either broke the #13 jinx by putting up H.O.F. stats in Miami or maybe his lack of a Super Bowl ring might prove that #13 truly is an unlucky number.

When it comes to NFL football, there are all kinds of numbers to remind us of our favorite players and their incredible accomplishments.

When it comes to betting on NFL football, there are only a few numbers we need to be aware of, but those key numbers can significantly impact our overall results.

Below, we dive into NFL betting, focusing on Key Numbers and what all bettors should know before placing their next NFL point spread bet.

Let’s go!

(For detailed information on key betting numbers in sports beyond the NFL, BestOdds.com has you covered here.)

Identifying NFL Key Numbers

A win in the NFL is hard to come by, and all wins should be celebrated.

However, when it comes to point-spread betting, not all wins are equal.

Let’s explain:

NFL Key Numbers – Last 5 Years

Margin of Victory	% of Occurence
3 Points	15%
7 Points	9%
6 Points	7%
14 Points	6%
10 Points	5%

Our table above does a great job emphasizing what is meant by Key Numbers for NFL point spread betting.

From 2018 – 2022, 15% of all NFL games finished with a 3-point margin of victory.

Games that end with a 3-point and 7-point margin of victory combine to make up almost 25% of all NFL games.

This is valuable information as bettors.

If we know that three is the most common margin of victory, then point spreads of 2.5 and 3.5 start to become very interesting.

At the very least, we understand that a spread just above or just under three points (2.5 or 3.5) is more valuable than spreads just above or below other numbers that don’t hit as often.

Key Numbers Betting Strategies

Now that we know 3 and 7 are such key numbers for NFL point spread betting, what can we do with that information?

The first thing we can do is learn more about NFL Teasers.

For those not familiar, an NFL Teaser is a type of parlay bet that also allows the better to shift point spreads in the direction of their choice.

For the sake of this article, when we discuss an NFL teaser, we are talking about a two-game, six-point teaser only.

Let’s put together a two-game, six-point NFL teaser to use as an example.

Games	Actual Spread	Teaser Spread
KC Chiefs vs NE Patriots	KC -8	KC-2
DAL Cowboys vs BUF Bills	DAL +2	DAL +8

In our example teaser above, we parlayed the Chiefs and Cowboys on the point spread.

However, because we are playing a six-point teaser, we moved the Chiefs from -8 point favorites down to -2.

Moving an 8-point favorite means, we are crossing the key number of 7 AND the key number of 3. (Remember that 3 and 7 are the two most common margin of victory outcomes.)

Now, if the Chiefs win the game by either 3 or 7 points, our teaser is still alive.

The second game on our teaser ticket is the Dallas Cowboys, who are +2 point underdogs in Buffalo.

By moving the Cowboys spread six points in their favor, Dallas is now an +8-point underdog.

Once again, the 6-point teaser allows us to move Dallas (+2 on the point spread) past the key number 3 and the key number 7.

Remember, teaser betting is a form of parlay betting, so we need both of our wagers to come through to cash this teaser ticket.

For those interested in teaser betting, BestOdds did a deep dive into the famous Wong Teaser strategy, which is still the most successful NFL teaser strategy discussed publicly to date.

NFL Exact Margin Of Victory Betting

There is a niche NFL bet called Exact Margin of Victory. For this wager, a bettor is offered some enticing odds to predict the final margin of victory.

This bet can be challenging to find at sportsbooks and often appears closer to game day, not early in the week.

Let’s have a look at some odds for an Exact Margin of Victory bet.

Minnesota vs Cincinnati – (CIN -3)

Exact Margin Option	Odds
Vikings Win By Exactly 3	+1000
Bengals Win By Exactly 3	+900
Either Team Wins By 3	+450
Vikings Win By Exactly 7	+1800
Bengals Win By Exactly 7	+1300
Either Team Wins By 7	+750

We know that 3-point games hit at a rate of 15% over the last five years.

With the odds above, we are offered Either Team to win by 3 points at +450.

If we thought the underdog Vikings were a good play on the moneyline and had a chance to win the game outright, the Vikings are paying +1000 to win this game by exactly three points.

Another thing worth mentioning is the point spread in the Minnesota vs. Cincinnati game, which was 3 points.

This is important because it means that a team winning by three points is a realistic outcome.

It is exactly what the sportsbooks are predicting will happen.

Always Shop Around

When it comes to key numbers in the NFL, there are a lot of truly beneficial reasons for bettors of all experience and skill levels to shop around.

Texans vs Titans	Bet365	DraftKings	Caesars
Houston	+3.5 | -110	+3 | -110	+2.5 | -110
Tennessee	-3.5 | -110	-3 | -110	-2.5 | -110

We learned earlier that three points is the most common margin of victory for an NFL game.

Three is also a very common point spread set by the sportsbooks.

However, when a game opens with a 3-point spread, sportsbooks will often be forced to move that number during the week, depending on the bets and money they take.

This provides a significant opportunity for a bettor to find an edge.

If you were willing to take the Houston Texans as +3 point underdogs with DraftKings, you should be very excited to grab them at +3.5 with Bet365.

Best NFL Teaser Odds

If teaser betting is something that interests you, then you should be shopping around to find your best NFL teaser odds.

NFL Best Teaser Odds

Games and Points	DraftKings	FanDuel	Caesars
2 Games / 6 Points	-120	-134	-125
3 Games / 6 Points	+160	+140	+140

Our table above shows that DraftKings is currently the market leader in pricing two and three-game teasers. (6 point teasers)

Two-game, six-point teasers are paying -120 at DraftKings, while their three-game teaser is +160, which is significantly better priced than their competitors.