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Picks & Insights For The 2024 NFL Draft


Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Apr 26, 2024

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The NFL Draft is always an interesting time on the NFL calendar, with each franchise selecting promising yet unproven talents to move their club in the right direction.

Naturally, the first overall pick in every draft is the most scrutinized, and while some have lived up to the hype, like Peyton Manning being selected No. 1 by the Indianapolis Colts in 1998, some were complete disasters, like when the Oakland Raiders selected quarterback JaMarcus Russell first overall in 2007.

Just a look at the differences in Manning’s and Russell’s NFL careers:

QBGamesPass YardsPass TDsMVPs?Super Bowl Wins?
Russell314,08318NopeDefinitely Not

Basically, being a first overall draft pick is the only thing Peyton Manning and JaMarcus Russell will ever have in common.

This just goes to show that the NFL Draft is not an exact science. Even when teams have the opportunity to select any player available, they will still swing-and-miss on occasion.

NFL teams can sometimes take a risk on their first overall pick, and for bettors checking in on the NFL Draft at home, they can share some of that risk as well by placing a wager.

Bettors have plenty of options on NFL Draft day wagers, including who will be taken at any other Top 10 pick, which player from specific positions will be drafted first, whether a player will be drafted over or under their expected draft slot, and more. 

First Overall Pick of the 2024 NFL Draft

As I previously mentioned, the first overall draft pick can sometimes be tricky, but for the 2024 NFL Draft, it’s all but a done deal for the Chicago Bears to select USC Trojans’ quarterback Caleb Williams.

Williams is a -10000 favorite to be selected first overall, but according to BetMGM’s insights, LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels actually has the highest percentage of tickets placed to be the No. 1 overall pick, with 31.1% of tickets.

Daniels’ odds to be taken first are +2000 at BetMGM, so bettors might be taking a swing on a Draft Day miracle.

Purely for conversation, it still appears to be a two-man race for the No. 1 pick in the draft, no matter how lopsided the race may be.

Although Daniels has received more tickets, bettors have still placed a higher percentage of handle on Williams to go first overall, with Williams receiving 76.9% of the money at BetMGM.

Daniels is a very likely second-overall selection, with odds of -155, and bettors have backed Daniels to go No. 2 with the highest percentage of tickets and handle.

If any other player were to be selected second, that would surely be a nice win for the sportsbooks.

Williams and Daniels are the clear favorites to be selected first and second in the 2024 NFL Draft, but here’s a look at the consensus top 10 picks across the betting landscape.

2024 NFL Draft – Projected Top 10 Picks

PickTeamsConsensus PickBest Odds
No. 1Chicago BearsCaleb Williams (QB – USC)-10000 BetMGM
No. 2Washington CommandersJayden Daniels (QB – LSU)-155 BetMGM
No. 3New England PatriotsDrake Maye (QB – UNC)-235 Caesars
No. 4Arizona CardinalsMarvin Harrison (WR – OSU)-220 FanDuel
No. 5Los Angeles ChargersMalik Nabers (WR – LSU)+300 DraftKings
No. 6New York GiantsMalik Nabers (WR – LSU)+170 FanDuel
No. 7Tennessee TitansJoe Alt (OT – ND)-150 FanDuel
No. 8Atlanta FalconsLaiatu Latu (DE – UCLA)+250 FanDuel
No. 9Chicago BearsByron Murphy (DT – UT)+175 bet365
No. 10New York JetsBrock Bowers (TE – UGA)+180 DraftKings

Interestingly, LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers is the favorite for both selections No. 5 to the Los Angeles Chargers and No. 6 to the New York Giants.

There’s been a growing storyline of new Los Angeles Chargers’ head coach Jim Harbaugh touting his former University of Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy, so that a QB-desperate club could trade up to the No. 4 spot to select McCarthy.

That would lead to quarterbacks being selected with each of the first four picks and would leave Los Angeles with the receiver of their choice at No. 5.

True or false, it’s certainly some intriguing NFL offseason gamesmanship from Harbaugh.

There will certainly be some movement through trades in the 2024 NFL Draft, and in the last five NFL Drafts, there have been 28 trades conducted during the first day.

Over the last five editions of the NFL Draft, that’s an average of 5.6 trades on the first day; five of those trades altered the Top 10 selections as well.

Bettors can wager on how many trades they expect to see in the draft, and DraftKings currently has their number set at over/under 6.5 Draft Day trades, with the under favored at -285; the over at +220.

2024 NFL Draft Risers and Fallers

Trades and surprising pick selections will always throw a wrinkle in the NFL Draft.

Over the years, some players have got to hug the NFL commissioner on stage much earlier than expected, while other players sat in the green room by the phone, putting their feet up and loosening their ties while waiting for their name to be called.

On the sportsbooks, bettors can wager on players’ waiting time by taking the over or under on a specific players’ draft position.

For example, Blake Corum, running back of the Michigan Wolverines.

Corum ran for 1,245 yards and 27 touchdowns in the NCAA last season, and he has run for a total of 2,708 rushing yards and 45 touchdowns in the last two years combined.

Corum is certainly a promising running back draft prospect, but his draft position is currently set at over/under 82.5 at bet365, with the over valued at -130 and the under at +100.

If bettors believe that Corum will be selected before the 19th pick of the third round, the under 82.5 makes for a potentially profitable wager.

Also, if the Arizona Cardinals don’t trade away their No. 4 pick to a QB-needy club, then there’s a good chance that Corum’s teammate, J.J. McCarthy could fall in the draft order.

At DraftKings, McCarthy’s draft position is set at a lofty 5.5, and that No. 6 pick to the New York Giants could be the place to land if McCarthy’s not selected for one of the first three selections.

If McCarthy isn’t selected by the Giants, he could be the one man left alone in the green room for hours on the first day of the draft.

The over on McCarthy’s draft position of 5.5 is an enticing +150 at DraftKings.

Mr. Irrelevant of the 2024 NFL Draft

Since 1976, the title of “Mr. Irrelevant” has been given to the final pick in the NFL Draft.

Among the 48 players selected as Mr. Irrelevant, most have them have been wide receivers and tight ends, with each position being selected eight times for the final pick.

San Francisco 49ers’ quarterback Brock Purdy may go down as the best Mr. Irrelevant of all time though; based largely on his current track record and trajectory.

Bettors can select which side of the ball will be represented by Mr. Irrelevant in the 2024 NFL Draft, offense or defense, and bet365 has offense favored at -140, compared to the defense at +110.

Of the 48 Mr. Irrelevants in NFL history, 28 have been offensive players and 18 have been defensive players – the two other final picks being kickers.

The 2024 NFL Draft seems to be deep at wide receiver, with the position being projected to have somewhere around six or seven selections in the first round alone.

Franchises that miss out on early wide receiver prospects could always do some deep diving later on any future pass catchers.

Also, wide receiver is one of the deepest positions in terms of depth on NFL rosters, so plenty of receivers will be taken in each draft. If history has taught us anything, the Mr. Irrelevant tag going to a receiver or tight end has been the most likely outcome.

Wide receiver is a popular position among the Mr. Irrelevant fraternity, and an offensive player being selected with the final pick seems likely.

Purdy’s success has made being Mr. Irrelevant “cool”, and it may be possible that teams may now want to select an offensive skill player in that spot as a marketing tool.

The final pick in the 2024 NFL Draft belongs to the New York Jets, and if last season was any indication, the Jets could use some offense.

New York should be going with plenty of offensive picks in 2024, and possibly in their last selection.

2024 NFL Draft Picks

After sifting through a series of wagering options for the 2024 NFL Draft, here are my picks for the 2024 NFL Draft.

Pick: OVER 6.5 Draft Day Trades

Best Odds: (+220) DraftKings

Pick: J.J. McCarthy – OVER 5.5 Draft Position

Best Odds: (+150) DraftKings

Pick: Blake Corum – UNDER 82.5 Draft Position

Best Odds: (+100) bet365

Pick: Laiatu Latu – First Defensive Player Drafted

Best Odds: (+170) Caesars

Pick: Laiatu Latu – To Be Drafted Before Byron Murphy

Best Odds: (+120) DraftKings

How about NFL Draft busts? We have done the research and have a top 10 ranking…


About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and enter...

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