2023 NFL Divisional Betting Odds
If there’s one thing US sports fans are always ready for, it’s football.
And within football, there is nothing that can compare to the NFL Divisional Races before the playoffs.
With the American Football Conference (AFC) and the National Football Conference (NFC) combining to match up a total of 32 teams, the drama and excitement is incomparable.
We’re going to dive into the nitty-gritty of the divisional races, how to make the best bets and what kind of odds you can expect for the 2022 season. So let’s get started!
In 2021, the AFC North division turned on its head a bit when the upstart Cincinnati Bengals went 10-7 to secure the division title over the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1), who said goodbye to future HOF quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
The Bengals, who were around +2500 to win the division last summer, would use the division crown as a springboard to the conference title and an appearance in the Super Bowl.
At the same time, AFC North mainstay Baltimore struggled with injuries and performance, while the Browns had a turbulent time dealing with Baker Mayfield’s struggles down the stretch before ultimately trading him. Both teams finished 8-9 and tied for last place.
Looking at the current odds, the Ravens are installed as favorites once again in the +165 range, with Cincinnati not far behind around +190.
The Browns have a quarterback situation to figure out and for the moment can be found at above +300.
The longshot is the Steelers coming into its first season without Big Ben, and they’re up at +1000 for the AFC North.
Baltimore has made tons of additions on the defensive end and should have a much healthier group, especially on offense.
Even though it’s a bit chalky, that could be the play
The New England Patriots held AFC East Division title for as long as we could remember but now, this is the Buffalo Bills’ division.
Josh Allen & Co. has won the AFC east twice in a row and in 2021, it was done by knocking off the rival Patriots late in the season at Foxboro.
Buffalo is -185 or worse at most sportsbooks and that’s for good reason.
Allen is an MVP candidate, Stefon Diggs is back on a huge deal, and this team recently got Von Miller to bolster its defense.
This is far and away the team to beat in this division, evidenced by the odds of everyone else.
The Dolphins are seen by oddsmakers as the second team in this division.
It added speedster Tyreek Hill to the offense and should be able to produce some creativity to highlight Tua Tagovailoa’s strengths.
The Dolphins are +450 at plenty of sites going into the season.
New England may not be a powerhouse anymore, but it hasn’t exactly fallen from grace.
Mac Jones has already proven himself as a reliable presence in the huddle from year one, something the next team we discuss is desperately looking for, and could’ve won the division last year with a late-season victory over Buffalo at home.
The Patriots are in the +500 range so there could be some value.
The Jets are longshots and that makes perfect sense. They had a terrific opening round of the draft but have tons of question marks, beginning with its second-year QB Zach Wilson.
Gang Green has a rough schedule early on and is only expected to win a few games, so the +2200 odds for the division are spot on.
The AFC South kind of feels like a two-team race as of late, and it’s the same deal in 2022.
The Colts are the favorite at right around even money with Matt Ryan taking over for Carson Wentz at QB, while the Titans are around +170 or less depending on the sportsbook.
The Jags and Texans are sort of afterthoughts when it comes to division winners, so let’s start at the top.
Indianapolis was 9-8 a season ago and collapsed down the stretch, but we can’t forget that Jonathan Taylor dominated behind this offensive line.
This team easily could’ve been the ones at 12-5 and winning the division instead of Tennessee.
People with short memories may jump on the Titans, but this is the Colts’ division to lose and even money is there for a reason.
Tennessee losing AJ Brown is a huge deal and while the offense will move along just fine with Derrick Henry getting the majority of touches, we aren’t banking on this Tennessee defense to come alive the way it did a season ago.
The +170 odds aren’t high enough when we look at how strong the Colts’ roster is top to bottom.
Trevor Lawrence gets his second head coach is as many season with the Jaguars, and Doug Pederson has his work cut out for him.
But after a 3-14 season, there’s plenty of room to improve. But don’t bet the Jags at +700 to win the AFC South.
Houston was surprised in many games last year, mostly because Davis Mills seems to be better than many thought.
That said, this isn’t the team to bet on, even with their crazy odds in 2022.
The AFC West division went to the Kansas City Chiefs once again last season but in 2022, it should be an absolute gauntlet.
All four teams have aspirations of making the playoffs and it’s safe to count at least two of them as serious Super Bowl contenders.
Kansas City remains a favorite around +150 to +175 and we get why. Andy Reid leads the group and all-world QB Patrick Mahomes still runs the show on offense with his main target, Travis Kelce.
Tyreek Hill is now gone from the offense and replacing him may not be so easy, which is why we like the next team we’re about to discuss.
The Chargers have it all on offense, starting with stud quarterback Justin Herbert.
He threw for over 5,000 yards and is already bigger and stronger than he was last season when Los Angeles’ offense was as good as anyone’s.
What really gets us excited is the fact that this team filled its major hole on the run defense with Khalil Mack. At +250, this is our play for winning the AFC West.
The Broncos need to be mentioned now that Russell Wilson aka Mr. Unlimited is in the building.
He immediately changes the dynamic of the entire team and they’ve got young receiving weapons such as Jerry Jeudy that will benefit greatly.
Not sure if they’re up to the level of Los Angeles or KC, so the +275 odds may need to be a bit higher for us.
Respect to the Raiders for overcoming a ton in 2021 and reaching the postseason. Derek Carr earned himself some more money and this team added Davante Adams to its offense.
We expect Las Vegas to play a factor once again in the AFC race and even though they are potentially fourth in this division, a +700 line for this group is still a valuable one in some ways.
The Packers went 13-4 last year while running away with the division as Aaron Rodgers won another MVP award.
Much of the same is expected in the NFC North this year, with Green Bay installed as a huge -170 favorite.
Rodgers is still the best player in the division and the Pack may be the most talented group, but it’s hard to lay that kind of price when this team lost star wideout and Rodgers’ favorite target, Davante Adams.
If there is a team to dethrone Green Bay in the NFC North division, it’s the Vikings. People will look at the 8-9 record and think they’re a long way off, but this team lost a ton of games by one score and could’ve easily been 12-5.
Is Kirk Cousins easy to trust? Of course not, but that’s why you get a +300 line while you hope Minnesota can do enough to hold onto the games they should win.
If they do, there’s a legitimate chance at this division.
The Lions, while scrappy, don’t have much of a chance. The +1000 line may be appetizing to some, but we wouldn’t really bet on it.
Stick to taking this team against the spread when they’re getting too many points.
The same goes for Chicago and its +1300 odds to win the division. They’re juicy, but it doesn’t feel entirely possible in Justin Fields’ second year.
The Cowboys dominated last season with a 12-5 record, winning the NFC East division by three whole games.
Don’t overthink this one: Dallas is going to win the division again, and +135 is an excellent line since that’s what they were a season ago as well.
The Eagles may have added AJ Brown and aren’t a bad bet at all around +200, Dallas’ talent level is still superior on both sides of the ball now that stud LB Micah Parsons is coming into his own and they made several key additions on that side of the ball.
The Washington Football Team has a name, the Commanders, but not a huge chance of winning the NFC East at +500.
There are just too many pieces that would have to come together and we aren’t betting that Carson Wentz is going to accomplish that when he couldn’t with a much better roster in Indianapolis.
The Giants are in a bit of a rebuild themselves at +800 and while we should expect improvement, maybe not much else.
Big Blue made just a few moves, and we’ll see whether Daniel Jones or Tyrod Taylor plays quarterback.
The NFC South division belonged to the Bucs last season and with Tom Brady coming back once again to join his stable of weapons, they are the odds-on favorite once again around -285 or worse at most online sportsbooks.
Tampa Bay was the No. 1-ranked DVOA team in all of football a season ago while no other division foe was higher than 23rd.
There may not be any value in Tampa, but there’s little value in the other teams based on their current state of affairs.
New Orleans clearly needs a QB, and we’re going to find out whether Jameis Winston is that guy or not.
He’s coming off of injury and last season had eye surgery, so it’s entirely possible we haven’t seen the best version of this quirky but talented player.
Still, the +450 odds seem too low when we know the strengths of Tampa Bay so well.
The Panthers have a solid coach and Christian McCaffrey, but also have three mediocre QBs vying for one spot.
It will be interesting to watch play out, although the expectation is Baker Mayfield will win the job.
That said, there are still too many holes and questions to take the +1000 line here, and CMC may not be healthy all season since he rarely is.
Atlanta has two young weapons in Kyle Pitts and Drake London, but Calvin Ridley will miss the season and there were just so many holes to fill, particularly on the offensive line and defense.
The Falcons addressed some of those, but this team still isn’t winning double-digit games or this division, which is why we see +3000 odds.
The NFC West is known as a competitive division and it was once again in 2021. I
n the end, it was the Rams winning the crown and then springboarding to a Super Bowl title, beating the rival 49ers in the process.
Going into 2022, the defending champs are favored once again.
Things couldn’t have gone better in year one Matthew Stafford in Los Angeles. And now, he gets to try and do it all over again with a hugely talented cast around him.
Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham lead the way along with a solid offensive line, and the Rams are dangerous at +135.
Behind them are the Niners, which lost to Los Angeles in the playoffs and could’ve been in another Super Bowl.
That said, there are some major changes with Trey Lance expected to take over at QB. While we do expect Lance to add an extra dimension to the offense, the +200 line is a bit low for us.
San Francisco beat the Rams both times in the regular season, yet still lost the division.
The Cardinals were on everyone’s radar a year ago but after melting down and some internal issues with QB Kyler Murray, the buzz has cooled off.
There’s still a ton of innovation in the building with Kliff Kingsbury and Murray, but last season seems to have exposed some holes with this group.
DeAndre Hopkins is missing the first six games and Arizona’s play down the stretch makes them hard to trust for any important wager.
The team to safely ignore when it comes to NFC West betting is the Seattle Seahawks.
After trading away franchise QB Russell Wilson, it’s obvious this is a rebuilding group.
Stacked against the rest of the division, +2000 isn’t high enough to take Drew Lock for a miraculous division title run.
How To Bet On Divisional Winners
Now that we’ve taken a look at the teams and prospects let’s get into the best way to bet within for this year’s division winners.
The first thing to do is pick a team.
Now, it can be tempting to pick your personal favorite, but odds are presented for a reason, so making sure the team you choose has a chance of winning your wager is the most important thing when betting on sports.
Line shopping is what we recommend before making a choice.
For example, DraftKings has the Tennessee Titans favored to win the AFC South Division at +110 with the Indiana Colts at +115.
However, FanDuel has the Colts at +110 and the Titans at +115.
Odds differ depending on the sportsbook, so that’s what we mean by “line shopping.”
Take a look at multiple sportsbooks to ensure you have all of the information and make the best decision possible with the best odds.
We recommend taking three different things into account when looking at an odds table. Odds tell you precisely what you are looking for—which team is the favorite to win.
The lower the number, the higher the chance of your wager winning.
Let’s look at an example. If the 49ers are slotted at +200, and you place a $100 bet, you would receive $200 in terms of profit and a total of $300 after regaining your initial $100.
Next, take a look at the handle.
The handle is the total amount of money that has been wagered on a bet to win. If the Chiefs have 65% of the handle, 65% of the bets in the AFC West Division will go to Kansas.
Lastly, take a look at the percentage of bets. This doesn’t show you how much is wagered but how many wagers have been made.
For example, if the Vikings have 35% of all bets but only 20% of the handle, smaller bets are placed on the Vikings.
With these factors considered, you can make a smart decision when it comes to your next bet.