2024 NFL Divisional Odds
Malcolm Darnley
Updated: Aug 7, 2023
If you like symmetry, then you will definitely appreciate how the NFL equally divides its 32 teams.
- The NFL has two conferences, an AFC and NFC conference.
- Each conference consists of four divisions: East, West, North, and South.
- Based on geography, four teams are placed into each division, for a total of 16 teams in each conference and 32 teams overall.
Things start to because less symmetrical when we look at the betting odds and the overall strength of each division.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have a win total set by the sportsbooks of +8.5 wins.
That is the lowest win total in the AFC North Division. (Cincinnati, Baltimore, Cleveland, Pittsburgh)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have a win total set by the sportsbooks of +9.5 wins.
That is the highest win total in the AFC South Division. (Jacksonville, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Houston)
This tells us the AFC North is expected to be a much stronger division than the AFC South.
In 2022, teams like the LA Chargers, Buffalo Bills, and Cincinnati Bengals were expected to challenge the Kansas City Chiefs for the AFC title.
When it was all over, the Chiefs prevailed as AFC Champions and triumphed in the Super Bowl, beating the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35.
It was their second championship during the Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes era.
No surprise that Kansas City is once again the betting favorite to win the AFC West division.
AFC East Betting Odds
In 2022, the Buffalo Bills cemented their position as the Beast of the AFC East.
The Bills finished 13-3 and won their third consecutive AFC East title.
| AFC East Teams | To Win AFC East | To Win AFC Conf. | To Win Super Bowl |
| BUF Bills | +120 | +450 | +900 |
| NY Jets | +250 | +1000 | +1600 |
| MIA Dolphins | +290 | +1300 | +2500 |
| NE Patriots | +800 | +3000 | +5500 |
- Never has the AFC East been as deep and talented during the Bills’ year run at the top.
- Aaron Rodgers’ arrival to NYJ has bettors moving the Jets’ Super Bowl odds all the way down to +1600.
- Meanwhile, the Dolphins, who have the exact +9.5 win total as the Jets, are +2500 to win the Super Bowl.
- Is a Bill Belichick-coached team really the worst team in the division?
Read a detailed break down of AFC East teams.
AFC North Betting Odds
The Cincinnati Bengals made a statement in the 2022 playoffs, beating the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills and falling a field goal short against the eventual Super Bowl champs from KC.
| AFC North Teams | To Win AFC North | To Win AFC Conf. | To Win Super Bowl |
| CIN Bengals | +150 | +550 | +1000 |
| BAL Ravens | +220 | +900 | +1800 |
| CLE Browns | +380 | +1800 | +3000 |
| PIT Steelers | +470 | +2500 | +4500 |
- At +750, only Patrick Mahomes has shorter odds to win the MVP than Joe Burrow this year.
- If Lamar Jackson (+1500 MVP) plays all 17 games, can BAL challenge CIN for the AFC North?
- Nick Chubb might be the best running back in the NFL. Can Deshaun Watson become a good quarterback again?
- The Steelers have a win total of +8.5. Unfortunately for them, that is the lowest in the division.
Read a detailed break down of AFC North teams.
AFC South Betting Odds
The Jacksonville Jaguars achieved something no other team in the AFC South could do last year.
At 9-8, the Jags were above .500. They also won a playoff game with an epic come-from-behind win against Justin Herbert and the Chargers.
| AFC South Teams | To Win AFC South | To Win AFC Conf. | To Win Super Bowl |
| JAX Jaguars | -155 | +1400 | +2800 |
| TEN Titans | +310 | +4000 | +6000 |
| IND Colts | +550 | +6500 | +10000 |
| HOU Texans | +1000 | +8500 | +18000 |
- Trevor Lawrence took a huge step forward in Year 2. It could warrant MVP consideration if he makes a similar leap in Year 3.
- Some say the Tennessee Titans have three quarterbacks. (Ryan Tannehill, Malik Willis, Will Levis). Some say the Titans actually have none. It will be fun to watch that play out.
- Indianapolis Colts fans have seen some pretty good quarterbacks in a Colts uniform. Anthony Richardson has big shoes to fill.
- Let the CJ Stroud era in Houston begin! Assuming he beats out Davis Mills.
Read a detailed break down of AFC South teams.
AFC West Betting Odds
In 2022, The AFC West was supposed to be the gunslinger’s division with supposed superstars at QB for all four of the teams.
Along the way to the gunfight, Las Vegas released Derek Carr, and Russell Wilson led the Broncos to the lowest points per game total in the entire league. (16.9 points per game)
Fortunately, Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert lived up to expectations and then some.
| AFC West Teams | To Win AFC West | To Win AFC Conf. | To Win Super Bowl |
| KC Chiefs | -180 | +350 | +600 |
| LA Chargers | +300 | +1100 | +2100 |
| DEN Broncos | +600 | +3000 | +4500 |
| LV Raiders | +1700 | +5500 | +7500 |
- At -180, KC is once again the overwhelming favorite in the West. Of course, they have won the division seven consecutive times.
- LAC had a monumental collapse in the playoffs vs JAX last year. Can they just shake that off?
- Russell Wilson and the Broncos averaged less than 17 points per game. Last in the league. Let’s Ride!
- There are only four teams in the AFC West, yet the Raiders are -1700 to win the division? That tells you everything you need to know about LVR.
Read a detailed break down of AFC West teams.
Betting On The NFC Divisions
At 14-3 last year, the Philadelphia Eagles showed the road through the NFC to the Super Bowl goes through Philly.
However, the San Francisco 49ers had an incredible 2022 (13-4), especially considering they suffered so many serious injuries at the QB position.
Undoubtedly, the NFC East division is the strongest NFC division heading into 2023.
NFC East Betting Odds
At 8-8-1, the Washington Commanders finished with a .500 record and finished last in the NFC East division last year.
Despite Dak Prescott missing games with injuries last year, Dallas put together a 12-win season.
| NFC East Teams | To Win NFC East | To Win NF Conf. | To Win Super Bowl |
| PHI Eagles | -115 | +330 | +800 |
| DAL Cowboys | +175 | +600 | +1000 |
| NY Giants | +700 | +2200 | +1400 |
| WAS Commanders | +1300 | +3000 | +6500 |
- The Eagles did everything right in 2022, except win the Super Bowl. Losing 38-35 to the Chiefs in the final game must have stung, but expect the Eagles to fly high again in 2023.
- Dallas managed to go 12-5 last year, with Cooper Rush playing more games than anticipated at QB.
- The NYG quietly had the best Against The Spread (ATS) record in 2022. (13-4 ATS)
- With Dan Snyder no longer owning the team, Washington is already a big winner in 2023.
Read a detailed break down of NFC East teams.
NFC North Betting Odds
I had to look up this stat several times to confirm I was reading it correctly.
“The last time the Detroit Lions won their division was in 1993. Back then, their division was the NFC Central, not the North.”
Divisions only have four teams in them. 1993 was a long, long time ago.
| NFC North Teams | To Win NFC North | To Win NFC Conf. | To Win Super Bowl |
| DET Lions | +145 | +800 | +2100 |
| MIN Vikings | +260 | +1200 | +3500 |
| GB Packers | +350 | +2000 | +4000 |
| CHI Bears | +430 | +3000 | +6000 |
Read a detailed break down of NFC North teams.
NFC South Betting Odds
Last year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers started the season with Tom Brady as their quarterback, and they were the betting favorite to win the NFC South.
In 2023, the Bucs are expected to start Baker Mayfield, and instead of being the division winner favorite, they find themselves with the longest odds of the four teams.
| NFC South Teams | To Win NFC South | To Win NFC Conf. | To Win Super Bowl |
| NO Saints | +130 | +1700 | +4000 |
| ATL Falcons | +210 | +2200 | +5500 |
| CAR Panthers | +360 | +3000 | +6000 |
| TB Buccaneers | +750 | +5000 | +7500 |
- The Saints welcome Derek Carr to be their quarterback this year, and that is enough to make them the betting favorite in this weak division.
- Falcons drafted Bijan Robinson early this year, and everyone is excited to watch him play.
- Maybe the only drafted player who was talked more about than Bijan Robinson was Bryce Young, who the Panthers unveiled as their next franchise QB.
- Ah, Baker and The Bucs.
Read a detailed break down of NFC South teams.
NFC West Betting Odds
Geno Smith was a good story last year. But the San Francisco 49ers losing three starting QBs and still getting to the NFC Conference title game has to rival Geno and the Seahawks.
| NFC West Teams | To Win NFC East | To Win NFC Conf. | To Win Super Bowl |
| SF 49ers | -165 | +400 | +1000 |
| SEA Seahawks | +200 | +1300 | +3500 |
| LA Rams | +1000 | +3500 | +6500 |
| ARI Cardinals | +2700 | +8500 | +18000 |
- Trey Lance or Brock Purdy? 49ers preseason football will be fun to watch.
- Geno Smith 2.0 – let’s see Geno do it again!
- Tough to be a good football team when Matt Stafford and Cooper Kupp are hurt. Who will the Rams be this year?
- No Kyler Murray to start the year. No DeAndre Hopkins at all – since they let him go. Arizona is going to be a very bad football team this year.
Read a detailed break down of NFC West teams.
Always Shop Around
As we all look for an edge to help us in our battle against the sportsbooks, remember that the single greatest advantage a bettor of any skill level has is their ability to shop around for the Best Odds available.
To Win 2023 Super Bowl
| Teams | DraftKings | FanDuel | Caesars |
| MIN Vikings | +4000 | +3500 | +3500 |
| JAX Jagaurs | +3000 | +2800 | +2500 |
The difference between a +3500 and +4000 ticket is substantial. The difference between +2500 and +3000 is also significant.
As recreational sports bettors, the best thing we can do to help ourselves reach profitability is to ensure we give ourselves a chance to maximize our profit.
If we aren’t shopping around for the Best Odds available, w are not taking advantage of the tools at our disposal.
