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NFL Player Prop Bets | Divisional Round

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Jan 18, 2024

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The Wild Card Round provided plenty of excitement in the props department.

Houston Texans’ quarterback C.J. Stroud, Green Bay Packers’ QB Jordan Love, Dallas Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott, Buffalo Bills’ QB Josh Allen and Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ QB Baker Mayfield all threw for three touchdown passes!

That certainly helped a few pass catchers in their anytime touchdown props.

Congrats to any bettor that selected Bucs’ wide receiver David Moore to score a touchdown. Moore’s anytime touchdown prop was +1300 at DraftKings.

Packers’ running back Aaron Jones helped his club run up the score in their win over the Cowboys last week, picking up three touchdowns on the ground.

Jones to score 3+ touchdowns was set at +3600 on FanDuel!

Let’s investigate some player props for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.

As always, all props will be paired with the best odds!

Lamar Jackson – QB, Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens will host the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round, and the Texans will be bringing their solid rushing defense with them.

According to BestOdds EDGE, Houston has allowed only 94.39 rushing yards per game, sixt-best in the NFL.

The Ravens brought in Todd Monken as their offensive coordinator for a reason, and that was to get more out of Baltimore’s passing attack.

No time like the playoffs to show some progress.

In Lamar Jackson’s last appearance in Week 17 against the Miami Dolphins, he completed 18-of-21 passes for 321 yards and five touchdowns.

That performance led to the Ravens clinching the No. 1 seed in the AFC, giving Baltimore the coveted first-round bye.

But, since Jackson didn’t play in Week 18, it will have been three weeks since he’s put his spikes on a football field.

I’m going to view that more as “rest” over “rust.

BestOdds EDGE believes Jackson will complete 20 or more passes this week.

Jackson completed 20 or more passes in eight games this season, and in those games, he averaged 251.3 passing yards.

The Texans can stop the run, but their passing defense is ranked 24th in the NFL, allowing 235.94 passing yards per game, so there should be some gaps in the defensive secondary that Jackson can exploit.

Houston allowed the most catches to tight ends this season (107), so when flinging the pigskin, I’d expect Jackson to keep it in the middle of the field with a focus on tight ends.

Especially, with tight end Mark Andrews making a potential return.

Pick: Jackson – OVER 226.5 Passing Yards

Best Odds: (-110) bet365

Christian McCaffrey – RB, San Francisco 49ers

The Green Bay Packers made easy work of the Dallas Cowboys last week, but they will have their hands full with the San Francisco 49ers in the Divisional Round.

The amount of explosive offensive weapons in Kyle Shanahan’s offense is the envy of any coach, and a potential point of frustration for any opposing coach.

Leading the way in this versatile offensive attack is the 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey.

McCaffrey averaged 91.2 rushing yards per game in the regular season, and he should be able to outperform that number against the Packers’ 28th-ranked rushing defense.

McCaffrey was recently nursing a calf injury, but he has been a full participant in practice leading up to this game, and should be near 100%.

After his early exit in San Francisco’s Week 17 win over the Washington Commanders, McCaffrey ended a streak of five-consecutive games with 93 or more rushing yards; four of those games being 100+ rushing yard performances.

I’d expect the Niners to run the ball quite often in this one, in an attempt to keep Jordan Love and Green Bay’s offense off the field.

McCaffrey’s rushing yards total should benefit.

Pick: McCaffrey – OVER 89.5 Rushing Yards

Best Odds: (-114) FanDuel

Mike Evans – WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In the Wild Card round, Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns in an upset victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. Mayfield was the first in franchise history to record such a game in the playoffs.

Take that, Tom Brady.

In the Bucs’ strong passing display, it was a somewhat quiet night for both of Tampa Bay’s top-two targets, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

Evans only had three receptions for 48 yards and Godwin tallied 45 yards and a touchdown on four catches, with the touchdown to Godwin being the final nail in Philly’s coffin.

This week, in the domed confines of Ford Field in Detroit, Evans has a very winnable matchup against Lions’ primary WR1 cornerback Jerry Jacobs.

In last week’s win over the Rams, Jacobs was burned regularly by Puka Nacua.

Here’s a look at how receivers have fared with the Lions’ Jacobs as their primary coverage in the last five games.

DET OpponentWR with JacobsWR Results
Week 15: DenverCourtland Sutton5 rec, 71 yds
Week 16: MinnesotaJustin Jefferson6 rec, 141 yds, TD
Week 17: DallasBrandin Cooks5 rec, 60 yds, TD
Week 18: MinnesotaJustin Jefferson12 rec, 192 yds, TD
Wild Card: Los Angeles (N)Puka Nacua9 rec, 181 yds, TD

Over the last five games, receivers predominantly being covered by Jacobs are averaging 7.4 receptions and 129 yards.

Evans only needs 69 yards to hit the over, but I like his value even more on alternate lines. Evans for 100+ receiving yards at +265 is a nice value on bet365.

Pick: Evans – OVER 68.5 Receiving Yards

Best Odds: (-114) FanDuel

Josh Allen – QB, Buffalo Bills

The last time the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs met, Josh Allen picked up a rushing touchdown, one of his 15 in the regular season!

Allen did it again last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, this time on a 52-yard scamper.

The Chiefs have allowed opposing QBs to pick up some chunk yards on the ground, even allowing the stone-like Tua Tagovailoa to scrounge up 25 yards on the ground and letting Bengals QB Jake Browning to cross the goal line in Week 17.

If there is one weakness to this highly successful Kansas City defense, it’s their rushing defense. The Chiefs have allowed four rushing touchdowns by opposing QBs this season, which is 40% of all rushing touchdowns they’ve allowed (10).

In potentially another cold and snowy game in Buffalo, I’m expecting Allen to keep moving the offense with his legs against this Chiefs vulnerable rushing defense.

Pick: Allen – Anytime Touchdown

Best Odds: (+100) Caesars

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