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NFL Conference Championship Odds

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Jan 22, 2024


Down to the final four!

After not winning a playoff game since January of 1992, the Detroit Lions have won two playoff games this postseason, defeating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Divisional round last week, 31-23.

Entering the 2023-24 NFL season, the Lions were the most bet team at BetMGM to win Super Bowl 58, receiving the largest percentage of bets and money.

A potential reality of Detroit winning their first ever Super Bowl title is inching closer every week.

The Lions will have to find a way to get past the Super Bowl betting favorite San Francisco 49ers this weekend.

In the AFC, the Baltimore Ravens crushed the Houston Texans in the Divisional round, as they are now one step closer to the Super Bowl.

The Ravens have only one loss since November 16th (Week 11), and that was when they benched most of their team in Week 18 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. They are 7-1 in that eight game stretch.

If the Ravens intend to pack their bags for Las Vegas, they’ll need to get through Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday.

Ultimately, it could be a Super Bowl XLVII rematch between Baltimore and San Francisco!

Both teams were coached by the Harbaugh brothers in what became known as “The Harbaugh Bowl”, with John of the Ravens and brother Jim with the Niners.

John of Baltimore won, 34-31, and sent his brother home empty handed.

Well, Jim Harbaugh won a National Title this season with the Michigan Wolverines, so maybe they’ll both win a championship in 2024?

Let’s take a closer look at these two Conference Championship matchups, and as always, with the best odds!

Sunday, January 28 – AFC Conference Championship

Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5, +146 ML) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, -166 ML)

Total: Over 44.5 (-108 | FanDuel), Under 44.5 (-110 | Caesars)

When it comes to matters off the field, the Chiefs have already won.

On the field, this has the makings of a nail-biter.

The spread currently sits at 3.5 points on most sportsbooks, but that number could dip lower than three before kick-off.

Especially considering the weather forecast for Baltimore this Sunday, which currently has temps in the low 40’s with rain expected.

Another factor that could keep this game close, Baltimore and Kansas City’s defenses; both being ranked first and second in the NFL, respectively.

The Ravens’ defense allowed only 16.5 points per game this season, and opponents have failed to score at least 20 points against Baltimore in 12 of their 18 total games.

For Kansas City, they allowed only 17.1 points per game, and they’ve allowed less than 20 points in 10 of their 19 games played.

Here’s a defensive comparison between the AFC Conference finalists, courtesy of BestOdds EDGE:

The weakest point in both of these defenses appears to be the rushing defense, and that will give an advantage to Baltimore, with the Ravens’ rushing attack ranking No. 1 in the NFL (156.5 ypg).

Lamar Jackson escaping the pocket and scrambling for first downs, followed by a collection of runners in Gus Edwards, Justice Hill and Dalvin Cook, should put some pressure on Kansas City’s defense.

A heavy running approach will also churn down the clock, keeping the Chiefs’ defense on the field, and Mahomes and Kelce off.

Also, in a game this tight, Baltimore may have a slight edge with kicker Justin Tucker; the greatest kicker in NFL history.

It’ll be close, but the Ravens should leave the home crowd happy.

Pick: Chiefs (+3.5) | Best Odds: (-112) FanDuel

Sunday, January 28 – NFC Conference Championship

Detroit Lions (+7, +250 ML) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-7, -285 ML)

Total: Over 50.5 (-114 | BetRivers), Under 51 (-110 | BetMGM)

The San Francisco 49ers will host the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship game, and the Niners have been generous hosts lately, according to BestOdds EDGE.

San Francisco’s defense ranks third in the NFL, allowing only 17.7 points per game, but it will be put to the test by Detroit’s offense.

The Lions have scored 27.2 points per game (5th in NFL), and in the last game San Francisco played against a top-five scoring offense, they lost 33-19 to the Ravens in Week 16, so Detroit should be able to put up a decent number of points here.

Jared Goff and the Lions’ passing attack is the offensive focus for Detroit, and against the 49ers’ 13th-ranked passing defense, Goff will be able to move his team downfield.

The main issue for the Lions will be how well their defense plays against San Francisco’s offense, which is essentially a Pro Bowl team.

Here’s a look at where the final four teams’ defenses rank:

Final FourPoints/Game AllowedScoring Defense Ranking
Kansas City17.12nd
San Francisco17.73rd

Clearly, Detroit is an outlier.

The Lions’ offense will have no room for error in this game. Any three-and-out drive will be one step closer to packing their bags.

While Detroit’s offense has carried them for the majority of the season, the 49ers’ offense has been strong as well.

Here’s an offensive Tale of the Tape from BestOdds EDGE:

It could come down to experience, and with Goff leading a team to the Super Bowl in the past (Los Angeles Rams, 2019), he may be less frazzled in the moment compared to Brock Purdy, who was injured and departed in the first quarter of last season’s Conference Championship loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.

San Francisco has left the door open for visiting teams lately, and the Lions will take advantage of it.

I still think we’ll see the 49ers head to the Super Bowl though.

Pick: Lions (+7) | Best Odds: (-115) bet365

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