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NFL Player Prop Bets | Conference Championship


Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Jan 25, 2024

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In the Divisional round, both Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens and Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills picked up two rushing touchdowns.

Jackson had odds of +750 on BetMGM to score two touchdowns, while Josh Allen had odds of +550 on Caesars to collect two scores.

Congratulations to any bettor that selected those two QBs to double up on crossing the goal line last week.

With only two games and four teams suiting up in the Conference Championships, let’s take a look at the most worthwhile player props for each team.

As always, with the best odds!

Brock Purdy – QB, San Francisco 49ers

49ers’ quarterback Brock Purdy was the most efficient QB this season, producing a passer rating of 113.

That efficiency proves that Purdy can move this San Francisco offense downfield.

In the regular season, Purdy averaged 267.5 passing yards per game, and he tallied 252 last week in his first postseason outing against the Green Bay Packers’ 14th-ranked passing defense.

Purdy could have much more passing yards this week against Detroit’s 31st-ranked passing defense.

As this list from BestOdds EDGE shows, quarterbacks don’t just go over their passing yards prop against Detroit, they smash their lines. 

Over their last four games, the Lions’ defense has allowed an opposing passing yards margin of +92.25 yards.

That’s quite a ways off.

That trend would suggest that Purdy would throw somewhere in the neighborhood of 366.75 passing yards.

Against this Detroit defense, a high number like that is certainly within reach.

For bettors that believe Purdy will put up 300+ passing yards, the best odds for that number can be found on FanDuel at +178.

I’ll stick with the regular line here.

Pick: Purdy – OVER 274.5 Passing Yards

Best Odds: (-114) FanDuel

Isiah Pacheco – RB, Kansas City Chiefs

The best way to move the ball down the field against the Baltimore Ravens is by keeping the ball on the ground.

Last week, the Ravens proved as such by holding C.J. Stroud to only 175 passing yards.

That doesn’t bode well for Patrick Mahomes, but it’s intriguing for Isiah Pacheco.

The Kansas City running back ran for 97 yards and a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional round, and BestOdds EDGE has Pacheco going over his line in the Conference Championship.

Pacheco has been running much better of late, running for 5.66 yards per carry in the month of December and moving at a clip of 4.77 yards per carry in his first two playoff appearances.

Here’s a quick look at how opposing running backs have fared against the Ravens’ defense in the last six games:

BAL OpponentOpposing RBRB Results
Week 14: LA RamsKyren Williams25 car, 114 yds (4.6 ypc)
Week 15: JacksonvilleTravis Etienne10 car, 31 yds (3.1 ypc)
Week 16: San FranciscoChristian McCaffrey14 car, 103 yds, TD (7.4 ypc)
Week 17: MiamiDe’Von Achane14 car, 107 yds (7.6 ypc)
Week 18: PittsburghNajee Harris26 car, 112 yds, TD (4.3 ypc)
Divisional: HoustonDevin Singletary9 car, 22 yds (2.4 ypc)

That’s four 100-yard rushers against Baltimore in the last six games, with a yards per carry against of 4.99.

Pacheco has picked up at least 60 rushing yards in 10 of 16 (62.5%) appearances this season, and he’s averaging 93 in his two playoff outings.

In a potentially wet and sloppy game in Baltimore, the hard-running Pacheco could see 20 carries.

Pick: Pacheco – OVER 63.5 Rushing Yards

Best Odds: (-110) bet365

Amon-Ra St. Brown – WR, Detroit Lions

Lions’ wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has been on fire, and this insight from BestOdds EDGE helps illustrate that point.

Although the 49ers have one of the best defenses in the NFL, they can be beat through the air.

San Francisco has the NFL’s 13th-ranked passing defense, and Jared Goff should be throwing early and often with the running game expected to take a backseat.

Here’s how St. Brown has done when Jared Goff attempts 40 or more passes.

Goff with 40 Pass AttemptsSt. Browns’ Results
Week 6: Tampa Bay 12 rec, 124 yds, TD
Week 7: Baltimore13 rec, 102 yds
Week 12: Green Bay9 rec, 95 yds
Week 16: Minnesota12 rec, 106 yds, TD
Divisional: Tampa Bay8 rec, 77 yds, TD

I’m assuming Goff will be flinging the pigskin all over Levi Stadium, and when Goff throws for 40 or more attempts, St. Brown averages 10.8 receptions for 100.8 receiving yards.

With their Super Bowl hopes on the line, Detroit will use the ‘Goff-to-St. Brown’ connection to keep the dream alive.

St. Brown averaged 94.7 receiving yards per game in the regular season, and he should produce one again in a win-or-go-home game.

Pick: St. Brown – OVER 84.5 Receiving Yards

Best Odds: (-110) BetMGM

Lamar Jackson – QB, Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens host the Chiefs in Baltimore this weekend.

If Kansas City proved anything in their win over the Buffalo Bills last week, it’s that their defense can give up rushing yards and touchdowns to opposing QBs.

Josh Allen picked up 72 yards and two scores against the Chiefs in the Bills’ loss.

That should be good news for Lamar Jackson.

Jackson ran for two touchdowns last week, too. Against Kansas City’s 18th-ranked rushing defense, Jackson could find paydirt once again.

The Chiefs allowed only 10 rushing touchdowns all regular season, but four of those came from opposing QBs; two from Jalen Hurts of the Eagles, one from Jake Browning of the Bengals, and one from Josh Allen in Week 14.

Hurts and Allen were arguably the biggest running threat from opposing passers that Kansas City has faced, and they’ve both found success against the Chiefs’ defense.

Even as the quarterback, I’d still expect Jackson to lead the Ravens in carries, and in the red zone, there is no runner on Baltimore’s offense that is more dangerous near the goal line than Jackson.

Pick: Jackson – Anytime Touchdown

Best Odds: (+115) DraftKings

Justin Tucker – K, Baltimore Ravens

Bonus pick!

Since we’re talking about football, let’s focus on the foot for a second.

Baltimore’s kicker Justin Tucker is the greatest in NFL history, with the numbers to back it up.

In December, Tucker hit a 42-yard field goal that gave him the all-time leading scorer mark in Ravens’ franchise history.

Tucker’s 53-yarder against the Houston Texans last week was the longest in Baltimore playoff history.

Most importantly, his 90.2% career field goal percentage ranks No. 1 all-time.

Strangely, Chiefs’ kicker Harrison Butker is second all-time with a field goal percentage of 89.1%.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson will steal all of the headlines, but this game could be the greatest kicking matchup in NFL history.

Tucker vs. Butker!

In his playoff career, Tucker has made 17-of-21 (81%) field goals, with that number being slightly lower than his career mark probably due to worsening weather conditions in January, but he’s still been pretty damn good.

The Ravens’ offense has become one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL this season, and with their ability to move the ball downfield, even if they come up short, Tucker’s leg should clean it up.

Pick: Tucker – OVER 7.5 Kicking Points

Best Odds: (-105) BetRivers


About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and enter...

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