NFL Conference Championship Parlay

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Jan 24, 2024

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In the Divisional round, the Houston Texans, Green Bay Packers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers were all eliminated, so the final four teams will consist of Super Bowl 58 preseason favorites.

No surprises here.

Buffalo was also eliminated, being the one team that lost that many bettors were backing.

For last week’s parlay, I backed C.J. Stroud and the Texans to cover the 9-point spread as underdogs, but they lost 34-10.

It was the only game that finished with a score by more than eight points.

Ugh.

Conference Championship week features only two games, so for this week’s parlay, I will place a four leg parlay with two spreads and two bets on each total.

I’ll place this four leg Conference title parlay on FanDuel.

Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (u44.5)

In 19 games, the Kansas City Chiefs are 11-7-1 against the spread (61.1%), while the Baltimore Ravens have gone 12-6 ATS in 18 games (66.7%).

Although Baltimore is the better team against the spread, the Ravens still have to go against Patrick Mahomes.

There have been four games between Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, and the Chiefs are 3-1 in those contests.

Here’s the average numbers for both Mahomes and Jackson in their previous four meetings:

Mahomes vs. JacksonComp%Passing Yards/GameTD:INTRushing Yards/GameRush TD
Mahomes71.8%369.812:28.81
Jackson56.2%187.54:275.83

Obviously, Jackson has been a much better runner than Mahomes, but Mahomes has heavily outplayed Jackson with his arm.

When these two meet, their QB’s top skill-sets clearly shine.

Jackson should be able to pick up plenty of first downs in this game, with the Chiefs rushing defense being one of the few weak spots in their strong defense.

Even in last week’s win over the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City still allowed Bills’ QB Josh Allen to run for 72 yards and two touchdowns.

Jackson should be running early and often.

The Ravens brought in offensive coordinator Todd Monken to get more out of Jackson’s arm and Baltimore’s passing attack, but this week, Monken may want to give the passing game a rest.

These two AFC finalists finished as the two best teams in the NFL in scoring defense, with the Ravens allowing only 16.1 points per game (1st in NFL) and the Chiefs allowing only 17.1 points per game (2nd in NFL).

Strangely, the biggest concern for Kansas City is their offense.

In six seasons with Mahomes as their starting quarterback, this is where the Chiefs ranked in scoring offense at season’s end.

YearKC Points/GameNFL Ranking
201835.31st
201928.25th
202029.66th
202128.24th
202229.21st
202322.314th

Kansas City is averaging about seven points less than they did the year before!

The Ravens’ offense has made a jump this season, as their 28.7 points per game is over eight points more than last season’s 19th-ranked 20.6 points per game.

Here’s an offensive side-by-side comparison, courtesy of BestOdds EDGE.

The Chiefs are the NFL’s 14th-ranked scoring offense.

Kansas City’s offense has been amazingly un-amazing!

Mahomes should be able to fire up this offense enough to keep this close at the end of the fourth quarter.

I’ll say the final score will be 20-17, Ravens.

Pick: Chiefs (+3.5 | -105) FanDuel

Pick: Under 44.5 (-112) FanDuel

Detroit Lions (+7) vs. San Francisco 49ers (o50.5)

This trend from BestOdds EDGE has me backing the over.

In all 19 of the Detroit Lions’ 19 games this season, they allowed 20 or more points in 16 games!

Defense is not the strong suit of the Lions, as evidenced by their 23-ranked scoring defense.

Of all the final four teams, Detroit’s defense is the outlier, with their 23rd-ranked defense standing out against Baltimore (1st), Kansas City (2nd), and San Francisco (3rd).

Needless to say, the over hits often in Lions games because they’ll let it happen.

The 49ers should be able to score a chunk of points in this one, and with their versatile offense led by human Swiss Army knife Christian McCaffrey, San Fran can score in a myriad of ways.

The weakest portion of Detroit’s defense comes from their defensive secondary, which should get obliterated by Brock Purdy, and his triumvirate of receivers, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and tight end George Kittle.

The Lions have the NFL’s 31st-ranked passing defense.

When facing a bottom-10 passing defense, this is how the 49ers have done:

49ers vs. Bottom 10 Pass DSF Win/LossFinal ScorePurdy’s Performance
Week 7: MinnesotaLoss22-1721/30, 272 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Week 8: CincinnatiLoss31-1722/31, 365 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Week 10: JacksonvilleWin34-319/26, 296 yds, 3 TD
Week 11: Tampa BayWin27-1421/25, 333 yds, 3 TD
Week 13: PhiladelphiaWin42-1919/27, 314 yds, 4 TD
Week 17: WashingtonWin27-1022/28, 230 yds, 2 TD

In his first two outings against a bottom-10 passing defense, Purdy seemed to have made some uncharacteristically bad throws.

As the season went on, Purdy peppered weaker defensive secondaries and assisted the Niners in producing some high scoring totals.

Purdy has 102 pass attempts in his playoff career and has yet to throw an interception, so he can win with efficiency as well.

San Francisco’s defense has been strong, but it could be facing their toughest offensive matchup since Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in Week 16, with the Detroit’s offense being ranked 5th in scoring.

Here’s how the 49ers have done when playing against a top-10 scoring offense:

SF vs. Top 10 OffensesSF Win/LossFinal ScoreOpposing QBQB Results
Week 2: LA RamsWin30-23Matthew Stafford35/55, 307 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Week 5: DallasWin42-10Dak Prescott14/24, 153 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
Week 13: PhiladelphiaWin42-19Jalen Hurts26/45, 298 yds, 1 TD
Week 16: BaltimoreLoss33-19Lamar Jackson23/35, 252 yds, 2 TD
Div. Playoff: Green BayWin24-21Jordan Love21/34, 194 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

That’s a record of 4-1 against top offenses and a point differential of +51.

San Francisco’s defense has done a masterful job of forcing turnovers against top quarterbacks, with the five QBs listed above producing a 7:7 touchdown to interception ratio.

Detroit’s quarterback Jared Goff has only thrown two interceptions in his last six games, along with 12 touchdown passes, so he’s heating up at the right time.

As long as Goff is making smart throws and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta are playing well, it’s tough to discount the Lions.

Detroit running back Jahmyr Gibbs has been an X-factor player for Dan Campbell’s Lions too, so there are weapons on both sidelines.

This game could turn into an offensive classic.

I think Goff can keep this game interesting, but San Francisco will find a way to survive.

I’ll say the final score will be 42-38, 49ers.

Pick: Lions (+7 | -110) FanDuel

Pick: Over 50.5 (-115) FanDuel

Conference Championship Parlay – FanDuelOdds
Kansas City (+3.5) vs. BAL-105
Under 44.5 (KC vs. BAL)-112
Detroit (+7) vs. SF-110
Over 50.5 (DET vs. SF)-115
Conference Championship Parlay Odds+1013

A $10 wager on this Conference Championship parlay would win $101.40!

How To Bet NFL Parlays

A parlay bet is a sports wager that combines several bets on one ticket alone.

Usually, you would go with moneyline bets but can use spreads, totals, and futures.

You can include props in many cases, and bettors can choose to link together just two sides, or up to 15 or more depending on the sportsbook.

Parlays are wholly customizable meaning bettors get to choose how big they want the odds to go.

How many sides will be included, and how difficult is it to make each leg of the parlay or do the same game parlays.

The way to establish consistency is to have just two or three sides and avoid chasing astronomical odds.

It’s fine to take your shot at a massive payout as well, but be sure to only risk the money you’re prepared to lose.If you fancy regular bets, we got the NFL Conference Championship Odds analysis worth checking out.

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About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and en...

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