Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens is just 1-3 in his career against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, but this will be their first meeting in the playoffs.

Jackson also came into the postseason with a career record of 1-3 in the playoffs and picked up a win over the Houston Texans last week, so there may be some winds of change swirling around Baltimore.

Speaking of change, this will be the second straight playoff road game for Patrick Mahomes, after winning his first in Buffalo in the Divisional round.

Regardless of the geographical location, the Chiefs are a playoff fixture.

For this heavyweight AFC Conference Championship game, I’ll place a Same Game Parlay on FanDuel.

Lamar Jackson – OVER 66.5 Rushing Yards and Anytime Touchdown

Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen ran for 72 yards and two touchdowns against Kansas City’s defense last week, and Jackson could outperform those numbers on Sunday.

Jackson, the expected NFL MVP, has run for three 100-yard rushing performances in his five career playoff games, and is averaging 93.4 yards on the ground in his postseason career.

With Mahomes on the other sideline, I’m expecting Jackson to use his game-changing legs often in an attempt to kill the clock and to keep Mahomes on the sideline this weekend.

The Chiefs defense is most vulnerable to rushing, as evidenced by their 18th-ranked rushing defense, allowing 114.9 rushing yards per game.

Kansas City allowed three rushing touchdowns to Josh Allen this season, two last week and one in Week 14, and they also allowed two to Philadelphia Eagles’ quarterback Jalen Hurts in Week 11.

LAMAR JACKSON.

Baltimore can taste the AFC Championship game.

📺: #HOUvsBAL on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/mOqD2jfu4M pic.twitter.com/stiJQtphvC

— NFL (@NFL) January 21, 2024

Quarterbacks that can escape the pocket and churn out some yards or even pick up a score have succeeded against the Chiefs defense.

I don’t think anything will be different this week with Lamar Jackson.

This will be the game that cements Jackson as the MVP of the 2023-24 season.

Pick: Jackson – OVER 66.5 Rushing Yards (-114) FanDuel

Pick: Jackson – Anytime Touchdown (+105) FanDuel

Mark Andrews – OVER 3.5 Receptions and OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards

All signs point to tight end Mark Andrews suiting up in Baltimore this Sunday.

If that’s the case, I’m expecting Jackson to look his way regularly.

In the event that Andrew sits, I’ll be backing fellow tight end Isaiah Likely.

Until that occurs, it’s full steam ahead on Andrews.

Kansas City has one of the best passing defenses in the NFL, allowing just 177.6 passing yards per game (4th in NFL), but even when quarterbacks struggle against the Chiefs, they still connect with tight ends.

Here’s a look at how tight ends have done against KC in the last 6 games:

KC Opponent	Opp. Tight Ends	TE Results	Leading Receiver?
Week 15: New England	Hunter Henry	7 rec, 66 yds, TD	Yes
Week 16: Las Vegas	Austin Hooper	2 rec, 13 yds	No
Week 17: Cincinnati	Tanner Hudson	3 rec, 38 yds	No
Week 18: LA Chargers	Donald Parham Jr.	5 rec, 83 yds	Yes
Wild Card: Miami	Durham Smythe	3 rec, 12 yds	No
Divisional: Buffalo	Dalton Kincaid	5 rec, 45 yds	Yes

In half of the Chiefs’ last six games, the opposing tight end was the leading receiver.

In those six games, tight ends averaged 4.2 receptions and 42.8 receiving yards.

Andrews played only 10 regular season games, but averaged 4.5 receptions and 54.4 yards in those contests.

The Detroit Lions’ tight end Sam LaPorta toughing out an injury with a leg brace, and I’m expecting we’ll see a similar situation with Andrews’ ankle this week.

Andrews last played in Week 11 against Cincinnati and left that game in the first quarter.

In his previous nine games, Andrews never had less than 35 receiving yards.

It’s “All Hands On Deck” for Baltimore on the road to Super Bowl 58.

Pick: Andrews – OVER 3.5 Receptions (+120) FanDuel

Pick: Andrews – OVER 35.5 Rushing Yards (-125) FanDuel

Isiah Pacheco – OVER 63.5 Rushing Yards and Anytime Touchdown

The best plan to attack Baltimore’s defense is by keeping it on the ground. The Bills used a similar blueprint last week in their narrow loss.

Like the Chiefs’ defense, the Ravens’ rushing defense has been the weaker portion of their defense, allowing 105. 4 rushing yards per game, ranking 13th in the NFL.

This game has the makings of an old-fashioned “Three yards and a cloud of dust” game.

Or if it rains: “Three yards and a splash of mud”.

Pacheco is one of the hardest runners in the league and he keeps his legs moving regardless of contact.

Averaging 66.8 rushing yards per game this season and 4.6 yards per carry, I’d expect Pacheco to turn it up in a win-or-go-home game.

Baltimore has allowed four running backs to eclipse 100 rushing yards in their last six games, and starting opposing RBs are averaging 4.99 yards per carry in that time.

Isiah Pacheco scores and it’s the 5️⃣th lead change of the game 🤯

(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/8estL5MBGb

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 22, 2024

When, or if, the Chiefs get down in the red zone, Pacheco will be a focal point.

Pacheco has the third-highest red zone rushing percentage in the NFL (80.8%), and of every running back that saw at least 40 carries inside the 20-yard line, Pacheco has the third-highest yards per carry (3.5).

Even though Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Rashee Rice will be out there, Pacheco seems to be the safest bet to cross the goal line.

Pick: Pacheco – OVER 63.5 Rushing Yards (-114) FanDuel

Pick: Pacheco – Anytime Touchdown (+140) FanDuel

KC vs. BAL SGP Legs – FanDuel	Odds
Lamar Jackson – OVER 66.5 Rushing Yards	-114
Lamar Jackson – Anytime Touchdown	+105
Mark Andrews – OVER 3.5 Receptions	+120
Mark Andrews – OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards	-114
Isiah Pacheco – OVER 63.5 Rushing Yards	-114
Isiah Pacheco – Anytime Touchdown	+140
AFC Conference Championship SGP Odds	+2724

A $10 wager on this AFC Conference Championship Same Game Parlay would win $272.46!

Betting NFL Same Game Parlays

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