Best NFL QBs In 2024
Lukasz
Updated: Sep 13, 2023
In 2020 and 2021 – Aaron Rodgers was the best football player on the planet and had back-to-back MVP awards to prove it.
In 2022, things went off the rails for the future Hall of Famer, and a frustrating on-the-field season turned into a messy off-the-field season, with Rodgers ending up in New York as a Jet when it was all said and done.
In 2023, New York’s best Broadway producers lined up to write the Jets Super Bowl script, with their new QB cast in the leading role.
The honeymoon in NY lasted all of four plays for Rodgers and his new teammates.
Then, the four-time MVP suffered a season-ending Achilles injury, and Jets fans everywhere were reminded of what it’s like to be a Jets fan.
At this point of the season, we are unsure which quarterbacks will step up and be considered the league’s best.
Unfortunately, we do know it won’t be Aaron Rodgers in 2023, but we do hope to see him back on the field in 2024.
Best NFL Quarterbacks In 2023
Patrick Mahomes +600 to win MVP
There is no better place to start than with the defending NFL MVP.
In 2022, Patrick Mahomes threw for 5,250 yards on his way to leading the league in total passing yards for the first, but most likely not the last time in his career.
Not many QBs will get a chance to throw the ball more than Mahomes. Last year, only Tom Brady (retired for now) and Justin Herbert had more passing attempts than the Chiefs QB.
The 2017 tenth-overall pick had 41 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions, leading to a QB Rating of 105.
The MVP award was the second time the 28-year-old QB has received that honor.
Tua Tagovailoa +600 to win MVP
During the NFL off-season, the worst kept secret was how good the Miami Dolphins offense was and how good Tua Tagovailoa was – when Tua was able to play in games last year.
| 2022 – Player | Games Played | Passing Yards / Game |
| Patrick Mahomes – KC Chiefs | 17 | 308.8 |
| Joe Burrow – CIN Bengals | 16 | 279.7 |
| Justin Herbert – LA Chargers | 17 | 278.8 |
| Tom Brady – TB Bucs | 17 | 276.1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa – MIA Dolphins | 13 | 272.9 |
Among NFL starting QBs, Tua ranked fifth in passing yards per game, and with Tom Brady most likely staying retired, the list of names between Tua and the top is not very long.
The QB and WR duo of Tua and Tyreek Hill might be the most dangerous combo in the league. Tua is known for being an accurate passer.
If a QB can get the ball to Tyreek on time and while there is some space, Hill can do the rest all on his own.
Justin Herbert +900 to win MVP
In his first three seasons in the league, Justin Herbert is averaging 4,700 passing yards per season and is over 14,000 passing yards in his career, just three years in.
It’s an incredible amount of passing yards for someone who had less than 50 regular-season games played before this season started.
In 2020, Herbert was the 6th overall pick behind Tua Tagovailoa. Dolphins fans are well aware of the success Herbert has achieved already in his young career.
The careers of Tua and Herbert will always be linked because of how the draft played out.
Herbert, and his 14,000 passing yards after only three seasons, has had the better start. Will that trend continue in 2023?
Trevor Lawrence +900 to win MVP
Writing about Trevor Lawrence makes me happy because I get to remind people how much of a train wreck Urban Meyer was during his brief time as the Jacksonville Jaguars Head Coach.
The 2021 NFL draft will be best remembered for three quarterbacks taken with the first three picks overall. It will be interesting to see how the careers of Trevor Lawrence (1st), Zack Wilson (2nd), and Trey Lance (3) play out over time.
There were huge expectations of Lawrence coming out of Clemson, where he clearly earned the right to be the first overall selection.
However, as a rookie under the direction of Urban Meyer, it wasn’t the start to his career most of us expected from Lawrence.
Trevor Lawrence Year 1 & Year 2 Stats:
| Year | Comp % | Passing YDS | TD:INT | Team Record |
| 1 | 59.6% | 3,641 | 12:17 | 3-14 |
| 2 | 66.3% | 4,113 | 25:8 | 9-8 |
In year two, with Meyer off making Netflix documentaries about himself, Lawrence became the QB many expected when his name was called with the draft’s first pick.
At +900 to win the MVP this year, many experts clearly believe Lawrence will continue to develop. He certainly took a big step in year 2.
Jalen Hurts +900 to win MVP
It would be interesting to one day sit back and reflect on 2022 with Eagles QB Jalen Hurts.
Philadelphia had an incredible season, winning 14 regular season games and ultimately reaching the Super Bowl.
For Hurts specifically, his personal stats and team performance were the best of his career.
However, Hurts lost the Super Bowl (to Mahomes and the Chiefs), and he finished runner-up (to Mahomes) in MVP voting. Only a small percentage of players even make the Super Bowl each year.
Far fewer players have the honor of being considered for the MVP award.
Hurts accomplished both in 2022 – but we have a feeling it was still a disappointing year for him, getting so close – but falling just short.
Josh Allen +1100 to win MVP
Oh, Josh Allen, NFL fans across the country want to anoint you as an annual MVP betting favorite, right there with Mahomes each year…
But enough with the interceptions, please, Josh.
In his last two regular seasons, Allen has thrown 71 touchdown passes. Unfortunately, he also had 29 interceptions during that time.
The seventh overall pick of the 2018 draft is more than just a pocket passer. Allen is a very big body and is an effective and underrated runner.
In 2022, the 237lb QB averaged 48 rushing yards per game.
Combined with his 268 passing yards per game, those are MVP stats.
Just stop throwing so many INTs, Josh!
Dak Prescott +2000 to win MVP
The 2023 season will be the eighth year Dak Prescott has been the starting QB for the Dallas Cowboys. In his previous seven seasons, Prescott managed to play 16 games five times.
In 2022, Prescott was injured early and started just 12 times for the Cowboys.
The fourth-round pick from way back in the 2016 draft struggled with turning the ball over last year.
In 2021, Prescott had a 37:10 TD-to-INT ratio.
In 2022, that ratio was just 25:15.
If the now 30-year-old QB can regain his 4,400+ passing yards and 37 touchdown pass form of 2021, Prescott at +2000 might look like a steal come January.
Betting The NFL Passing Yards Leader
Although he is now retired, or at least is claiming to be retired for now, it’s always fun to pay respect to the game’s greatest player.
At age 43, Tom Brady left the New England Patriots after 20 seasons with them and promptly won a Super Bowl his first year with his new team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Although the G.O.A.T. fell short of his Super Bowl goal in year two, he did manage to lead the league in total passing yards with over 5,300 at age 44.
His third and final season was considered a disappointment.
Tom did not win a Super Bowl or lead the league in passing.
Instead, he finished an embarrassing third in total passing yards and promptly retired right after, at age 45.
2022 Passing Yards Leaders
| Player | Yards Passing | Team |
| Patrick Mahomes | 5,250 | Chiefs |
| Justin Herbert | 4,739 | Chargers |
| Tom Brady | 4,694 | Buccaneers |
| Kirk Cousins | 5,547 | Vikings |
| Joe Burrow | 4,475 | Bengals |
Betting The NFL QB To Throw The Most Touchdowns
Looking at last year’s total passing yards leaders, you will notice a correlation between yards passing and total touchdown passes thrown.
2022 Total TD Passes
| Player | Games Played | Total TD Passes | Passing Yards Rank |
| Patrick Mahomes | 17 | 41 | 1st |
| Joe Burrow | 16 | 35 | 5th |
| Josh Allen | 16 | 35 | 7th |
| Geno Smith | 17 | 30 | 8th |
| Kirk Cousins | 17 | 29 | 4th |
It’s no surprise that QBs who throw a lot of passing yards also throw a lot of touchdowns.
All of the QBs who finished Top 5 in TD passes last year also finished Top 8 or better in passing yards.
Betting On The NFL MVP Award
Although the NFL MVP award is not specifically for quarterbacks, it is becoming rare when someone at another position is named the league’s best player.
For ten consecutive years, the NFL MVP has been a quarterback.
The last non-QB to win the award was Minnesota Vikings RB Adrian Peterson
This year, the top 19 players on the MVP odds list are all quarterbacks.
Good luck to you, Christian McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill.
The two position players with the shortest odds to win this year’s MVP.
Always Shop Around
When it comes to beating the sportsbooks, a bettor’s greatest advantage is to shop around and play only their very Best Odds.
This is true for every type of sports bet available but can be especially true when we get into futures and player prop betting.
For example, let’s look at some early season odds posted for this year’s NFL MVP award.
2023 NFL MVP Award Odds
| Player | FanDuel | DraftKings | Caesars |
| Dak Prescott | +1400 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Brock Purdy | +2000 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Tyreek Hill | +7500 | +5000 | +5000 |
In our table above, we have three talented football players playing on excellent teams and their odds to win this year’s MVP award.
When we shop our odds around, we notice some interesting betting opportunities.
Significant gaps exist between +1400 and +2000 for Dak Prescott and between +2000 and +2500 for Brock Purdy.
The difference in odds for Tyreek Hill is obviously far greater.
MVP Odds & Potential Payouts
| MVP Wager | Odds | Potential Profit |
| $10 – Dak Prescott | +1400 | $140 |
| $10 – Dak Prescott | +2000 | $200 |
| $10 – Brock Purdy | +2000 | $200 |
| $10 – Brock Purdy | +2500 | $250 |
| $10 – Tyreek Hill | +5000 | $500 |
| $10 – Tyreek Hill | +7500 | $750 |
When we shop around for our Best Odds with Dak and Brock, the potential difference in profit is $50 and $60.
It’s important to remember this is from one $10 wager.
How many bets will you make during a season or over a full calendar year?
When we start to understand ROI over a long period of time, we realize that whether you are a sharp bettor or a recreational bettor just having fun – if achieving profitability is part of your betting goals, then shopping around is your biggest tool.
