NCAA Football Week 9 Odds

Author

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Oct 25, 2023

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No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners (-10, -365 ML) vs. Kansas Jayhawks (+10, +300)

In the photo above, I’m assuming the Sooners were measuring their close margin of victory over the UCF Golden Knights last week.

After defeating the Texas Longhorns in Week 7, Oklahoma had somewhat of a letdown in Week 8, defeating UCF by just two points, 31-29.

The Sooners will visit Lawrence, Kansas this week to take on the Kansas Jayhawks, and while they may have taken UCF too lightly, they need to get serious against this Jayhawks team.

Kansas has scored 31 or more points in six of their seven games this season, and that offensive success should work just fine against the Sooners’ defense that has allowed 20 or more points in the last three games.

The Jayhawks come in rested off a bye week, and Oklahoma is coming off a close shave.

The Sooners are still undefeated on the season, and they are 6-1 against the spread.

But, Oklahoma has only played three road games this season, and in their last two, they have covered both spreads by a combined 0.5 points.

I like the offensively-capable Kansas to cover here.

Pick: Kansas (+10) | Best Odds: (-110) BetRivers

No. 4 Florida State Seminoles (-20, -1350 ML) vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+20.5, +850 ML)

Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis continues to remain in the Heisman Trophy conversation, and the Seminoles continue to put up 30+ point games.

Wake Forest’s defensive unit may not be able to hold back the power of the ‘Noles offense this week.

The Demon Deacons’ defense has only allowed 30 points twice this season, surrendering exactly 30 points to Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, but tech-nically, Florida State’s offense is in a different stratosphere.

The Seminoles faced an elite defense from the Duke Blue Devils last week, and still managed to put 38 points on the board; Travis being responsible for three total touchdowns.

Wake Forest is averaging just 15.5 points per game, and they have recently played much weaker defenses compared to Florida State’s.

The Deacons will fall behind quickly, and stay behind.

Pick: Florida State (-20) | Best Odds: (-112) BetRivers

No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (-14, -600 ML) vs. Florida Gators (+14.5, +450 ML)

The Georgia Bulldogs continue to roll over their collegiate foes, as they are now undefeated this season, and they have not lost a single game since December 4th, 2021, against the Alabama Crimson Tide.

I may be jinxing Georgia here, but I don’t think so.

Florida has had a strong season, even picking up a win over the then-No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers back in September.

Gators’ QB Graham Mertz has quietly been one of the best quarterbacks in the NCAA, too.

While the Bulldogs are 7-0, they are just 2-5 against the spread.

When watching Georgia play, it seems like they will do what needs to be done, but nothing more.

I foresee that happening again this week.

Georgia should win this game, but I like Florida to cover.

Pick: Florida (+14.5) | (-110) BetMGM

No. 20 Duke Blue Devils (+4.5, +167 ML) vs. No. 18 Louisville Cardinals (-4, -179 ML)

Duke has been one of the more interesting teams this season, sending out a defense that is borderline elite, allowing just 13.9 points per game.

The Blue Devils did allow 38 points to Florida State last week, but that was possibly just a pothole in the road on the highway to a potential ACC Championship appearance.

Louisville is coming off a bye week, which they probably used to reflect on their last game, an upset loss to the Pittsburgh Panthers.

It was a massive letdown after pulling off an upset of their own the week prior, taking down the then-No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

The Cardinals’ season has been a roller coaster, and that lack of consistency has created a turnover-prone offense with an unsustainably high 6-1 record.

Duke gets one notch closer to their first ACC Championship since 1989 with a win as underdogs on the road over Louisville.

Pick: Duke Moneyline | Best Odds: (+167) bet365

Pittsburgh Panthers (+20.5, +850 ML) vs. No. 14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-20.5, -1250 ML)

Pittsburgh took a devastating loss to the Wake Forest Demon Deacons last week, allowing a touchdown pass with just seven seconds left on the clock.

While I don’t think this game will come down to the final seven seconds, Notre Dame’s fading offense may let Pitt hang around.

Notre Dame’s offense is fading? They just scored 48 points against USC!

I know, but the Irish’ defense was the story.

They created a season-high five turnovers, and the positive field position allowed for easy scores against a porous USC defense as a result.

While the Panthers’ defense is not the best, it’s certainly above average, whereas USC’s was not.

When Notre Dame has played above average defenses, they have posted some pedestrian offensive numbers, and lower scoring totals.

In this potentially low-scoring game, I like Pitt to hang within three touchdowns.

Pick: Pittsburgh (+20.5) | Best Odds: (-108) DraftKings

No. 8 Oregon Ducks (-6.5, -244 ML) vs. No. 13 Utah Utes (+6.5, +210 ML)

The Oregon Ducks have scored 33 or more points in every game this season, and when looking at their schedule, it makes sense, because they have not played a great defense all season.

Until now.

Before the Utes 34-32 upset victory over USC last week, they did not allow more than 21 points in any game.

The Ducks have a very strong defense of their own, and both Oregon and Utah stack closely on defense.

  • Oregon Passing Defense: 245 Yards/Game (84th in NCAA)
  • Utah Passing Defense: 242.7 Yards/Game (78th in NCAA)
  • Oregon Rushing Defense: 86.3 Yards/Game (9th in NCAA)
  • Utah Rushing Defense: 80.8 Yards/Game (6th in NCAA)
  • Oregon Scoring Defense: 18.7 Points/Game (21st in NCAA)
  • Utah Scoring Defense: 16.3 Points/Game (12th in NCAA)

These defenses are wildly close in production, but the offenses are night and day.

Bo Nix has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NCAA, while Utah has used a couple different QBs, with Bryson Barnes leading them to victory last week.

Barnes may be able to succeed against a lackluster USC defense, but it won’t fly against the Ducks this week.

I don’t see Oregon scoring a ton of points this week, but I don’t see Utah scoring enough to cover.

The Utes lost to the Oregon State Beavers in Week 5, 21-7, and I see a similar result here.

Pick: Oregon (-6.5) | Best Odds: (-110) BetMGM

No. 24 USC Trojans (-10.5, -400 ML) vs. California Golden Bears (+11, +350 ML)

This is a get-right game for the USC Trojans.

I don’t see Caleb Williams and USC losing three games in a row, and definitely not to the hands of the Cal Golden Bears.

Cal’s defense is not good, allowing 33.5 points per game (109th in NCAA), and Williams will turn this defense into swiss cheese in Week 9.

USC is frustratingly just 2-6 against the spread this season, but when favored this season, their average spread margin is 26 points.

The Trojans don’t need to cover a 26 point spread here, just 10.5.

USC gets back to their high-scoring, highlight-making ways this week.

Pick: USC (-10.5) | Best Odds: (-110) BetRivers

Colorado Buffaloes (+17.5, +580 ML) vs. No. 23 UCLA Bruins (-17, -800 ML)

Colorado started the season all shiny and new, but have since become weathered and dull.

The Buffaloes’ defense is one of the worst in the NCAA, allowing an average of 35.9 points per game, which is ranked 120th out of 133 FBS teams.

Colorado has lost three of their last four games, and their most recent loss to Stanford was extra special for all the wrong reasons.

The Buffaloes blew a 29-0 halftime lead, and failed to pick up the win in double-overtime.

Just when you think this defense can’t get any worse, it finds a way.

UCLA’s defense is one of the best in the NCAA, allowing just 14.9 points per game.

The Bruins allowed 36 points in a loss to Oregon State, but that has been the only game this season that UCLA has allowed more than 17 points.

If the Buffaloes are going to score, they will need Shedeur Sanders to be effective in the pocket and make proper passes.

Although the passing defense for UCLA is solid, allowing just 226 passing yards per game, it is still the weakest point of this stingy Bruins defense.

Colorado’s defense may hurt them at times, but they should be able to score just enough points to hang within the spread.

Pick: Colorado (+17.5) | Best Odds: (-115) BetRivers

No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (-14.5, -650 ML) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+14.5, +500 ML)

The Ohio State Buckeyes picked up a big win over Penn State last week, so they should be able to handle the Wisconsin Badgers this week.

Wisconsin escaped with a victory over Illinois last week, with backup QB Braedyn Locke throwing a touchdown pass with 27 seconds remaining.

The Badgers offense has scored a decent amount of points this year, but when facing a defense as tough as Ohio State’s, Wisconsin will struggle.

The only comparable defense to the Buckeyes that the Badgers have faced is the Iowa Hawkeyes, and Wisconsin only recorded six points in that game.

Ohio State should be able to secure a big victory here, especially if running back TreVeyon Henderson and receiver Emeka Egbuka suit up.

Pick: Ohio State (-14.5) | Best Odds: (-105) FanDuel

No. 11 Oregon State Beavers (-3.5, -156 ML) vs. Arizona Wildcats (+3.5, +145 ML)

The Oregon State Beavers have climbed all the way up to No. 11 in the AP Poll with a surprisingly strong 6-1 start.

The Beavers one big loss came to the Washington State Cougars.

The Arizona Wildcats are just 4-3, but all three of their losses have been one-possession games.

Their last game was a 44-6 win over the Washington State Cougars.

Arizona lost to the then-No. 9 USC Trojans in three overtimes on October 9th, so the Wildcats could have won back-to-back games against Top-25 opponents and held a 5-2 record.

Unfortunately, for Arizona, that’s not the case.

It’s only a matter of time before the surging Wildcats pick up another big win, and I believe it will be this week.

After quarterback Jayden De Laura went down with a calf injury, it was assumed that this Wildcats offense would struggle, but Noah Fifita has been a solid replacement under center.

Fifita is averaging 292.3 passing yards per game since filling in, and has tallied eight touchdown passes and just two interceptions in his three game trial.

Oregon State allowed 40 points to Cal and 24 points to the defensive-first UCLA Bruins in the last two games.

If the Beavers can’t get their defense in order, they could drop this game on the road to Arizona.

Pick: Arizona Moneyline | Best Odds: (+145) bet365

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A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and enter...

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