Updated: Oct 26, 2023
Sometimes, when selecting player props, one must consider ‘the game script’.
‘The game script’ is how a bettor sees the flow of the game playing out.
If Team A is playing from behind, then Team A’s quarterback is going to attempt more passes to try and get his team downfield.
If Team B is playing with a lead, they will go conservative and run the football often to grind down the clock.
In rare instances, ‘the game script’ is so far off in a game, that almost any prop bet is destined to be busted.
Case in point: The Week 8 matchup between the Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Arkansas Razorbacks.
This SEC conference matchup finished with a grand score of 7-3, and may go down as the ugliest game of the season.
For bettors that frequently take the over on props, this game was a nightmare.
Both quarterbacks finished with less than 100 passing yards, and while Mississippi State ran the ball 36 times, they only averaged 3.3 yards per carry.
It was even worse on the ground for Arkansas, running 37 times for only 2.8 yards per carry.
Let’s avoid games like that one in Week 9, and find some solid player props.
Dillon Gabriel – QB, Oklahoma Sooners
Gabriel is averaging 304.4 passing yards per game this season, and this week, Gabriel will face a Kansas Jayhawks defense that is ranked 97th in the NCAA in passing defense.
Dillon Gabriel has been CHARGING the Oklahoma offense this season, all the way to 7-0 😤— Redshirt Heisman (@TasteOfSport) October 26, 2023
He is thriving in his 2nd year with the Sooners:
🔴 2,127 yards
⚪️ 19 TD – 3 INT
🔴 80% adjusted completion
⚪️ 5 rushing TDs pic.twitter.com/O5XOMnZr6N
This Big 12 rivalry usually records a high total, with only one of the last ten meetings falling below a 50 point total; which was a 41-3 Oklahoma win in 2017.
Last year’s meeting finished with a 52-42 score, with the Sooners coming out on top.
I’d assume there will be plenty of scoring in this rivalry once again, and that should bode well for Gabriel.
Although Oklahoma is 7-0, they have still allowed their fair share of points, allowing 20 or more in each of the last three games.
Kansas certainly has the offense to make this a game, so Gabriel will need to stay on his toes.
The Jayhawks have allowed three 300-yard passing performances in their last four games, and in a potentially high-scoring matchup, Gabriel should hit 300 yards passing as well.
Pick: OVER 289.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: (-108) Caesars
CJ Donaldson – RB, West Virginia Mountaineers
As good as a running back that CJ Donaldson is, he frequently takes a backseat in the ground attack to WVU’s starting quarterback Garrett Greene.
Greene runs very often, which can limit Donaldson’s usage, but in Week 9, the Mountaineers face a UCF Knights defense that is 128th in the NCAA in rushing defense, allowing 215 rushing yards per game.
WVU is going to pound the rock the entire game, and when facing UCF, there is no reason not to.
The Knights allowed two Oklahoma running backs to finish with 60+ rushing yards last week, and even allowed three Kansas running backs to tally 90+ yards the week prior.
Three 90-yard running backs in one game!
Donaldson is averaging 64.7 rushing yards per game, and UCF’s defense will allow him to continue reaching that number, and probably more.
This is the Big 12 Conference, where defense doesn’t exist.
Pick: OVER 50.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: (-114) FanDuel
Keon Coleman – WR, Florida State Seminoles
The Florida State Seminoles take on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons this week, and last week, Wake Forest allowed Christian Veillieux of Pittsburgh to throw for over 300 yards.
I would assume Seminoles quarterback Jordan Travis will have little issue with this 103rd-ranked Wake Forest passing defense.
If Travis is destined to have an easy matchup, that should bode well for top target Keon Coleman.
It is still to be determined whether fellow wideout Johnny Wilson will suit up, but in a contest as lopsided as this one, Wilson may be given more rest, allowing Coleman to absorb more targets, catches, and yards.
Coleman is averaging 67.4 receiving yards per game, but in this beatable matchup, he should be able to hit the over on his receiving yards prop.
Pick: Over 63.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: (-115) DraftKings
Nicholas Singleton – RB, Penn State Nittany Lions
The Penn State Nittany Lions head back to Happy Valley this week, hosting the Indiana Hoosiers in a Big Ten Conference matchup.
Against this inadequate Hoosiers team, Penn State should have an easy bounce back week.
Indiana’s rushing defense has been continuously gouged for huge yardages and tons of touchdowns by opposing rushers.
The Hoosiers surrendered two touchdown runs to Blake Corum of Michigan in Week 7, then allowed 143 yards and three touchdowns to Gavin Wimsatt of Rutgers last week.
With the Nittany Lions being able to win this game easily, I’d expect running back Nicholas Singleton to receive a decent workload.
Penn State’s offense will have no problem getting the ball into the red zone, and once they are there, Singleton will have plenty of chances to find the painted grass.
The Nittany Lions are going to roll on Saturday, and Singleton will find paydirt more than once.
Pick: Over 1.5 Touchdowns
Best Odds: (+165) FanDuel