NCAA Football Week 8 Odds

No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions (+4.5, +167 ML) vs. No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (-4, -179 ML)

The 6-0 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. the 6-0 Ohio State Buckeyes!

This Big Ten battle of unbeatens will have a similar feel to last week’s Washington-Oregon matchup.

Conference hopes and playoff dreams will be on the line.

Penn State will be bringing their top-ranked defense into the Horseshoe this Saturday, as the Nittany Lions are allowing a minuscule 204.4 total yards of offense per game.

This doesn’t bode well for the banged-up Buckeyes’ backfield.

Ohio State running backs TreVeyon Henderson, Miyan Williams, and Chip Trayanum are all listed as ‘questionable’.

Dallan Hayden, the fourth running back of this Buckeyes’ backfield, tallied 76 yards last week against the Purdue Boilermakers, but Purdue and Penn State’s defenses do not equate.

The Nittany Lions have allowed just 67.4 rushing yards per game, which is the second-best mark of all 133 FBS teams; Purdue is ranked 80th, allowing 153.6 rushing yards per game.

Penn State has not allowed 100+ total rushing yards since Week 1, against the West Virginia Mountaineers.

The Nittany Lions’ passing defense is also No. 1 in the country, so Ohio State QB Kyle McCord will have a tough task ahead.

Penn State’s defense has allowed 48 points total in 6 games. That’s 8 points per game.

15 of those points have been in garbage time without the first team in.

That means the first team defense has only allowed 33 points in 6 games, 5.5 (!!!) per game.

They are special. pic.twitter.com/uCa2JVZq9P

— Dylan Burd (@Dylan_Burd) October 17, 2023

McCord has posted solid numbers this season, but has only faced one passing defense that could be comparable to Penn State’s, and that’s Notre Dame.

McCord completed just 21 of 37 passes for 240 yards and zero touchdowns against Notre Dame’s stiff passing defense, which could give a slight look into how McCord may fare against a quality opponent.

Ohio State’s defense is no slouch either, as they currently rank third-best in the NCAA in passing defense (158.2 yards per game) and third in points allowed (10.2 points per game).

The difference will be the Buckeyes’ 24th-ranked rushing defense allowing 111.2 rushing yards per game.

The Nittany Lions have two healthy running backs in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen that have both been a huge part of their offense.

Penn State’s defense will paralyze Ohio State’s offense, and the Nittany Lions’ running back tandem will dwindle time off the clock.

Pick: Penn State Moneyline | Best Odds: (+167) bet635

No. 22 Air Force Falcons (-10.5, -390 ML) vs. Navy Midshipmen (+11, +320 ML)

The Air Force Falcons and Navy Midshipmen square off in Annapolis for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy.

More important than the trophy is Air Force’s 6-0 record and No. 22 ranking in the AP Poll.

Both the Falcons and Midshipmen employ run-heavy, triple-option offenses, resulting in a never-ending barrage of running plays.

At this point, both teams have had successful seasons running the football, as Air Force is tops in the NCAA in rushing yards per game (326.2) and Navy is fifth (234.6).

AIR FORCE FALCONS TOUCHDOWN‼️

With 2 minutes left, the Falcons take it 55-yards to the house! 🏈🙌🏼

Falcons get the stop at win it 34-27! The undefeated season is very much alive! 🔥#CollegeFootball #AFvsWYO pic.twitter.com/62JEv6aDRt

— The Sports Forum (@DenverForum) October 15, 2023

With both teams focusing on the ground attack, here’s a look at how both teams’ rushing defenses have fared in 2023:

• Air Force Rushing Defense – 83.8 Yards Allowed Per Game (7th in NCAA)
• Navy Rushing Defense – 161.4 Yards Allowed Per Game (85th in NCAA)

And that will be the reason why Air Force wins this game.

The Falcons’ defense may be the best that the Midshipmen have faced all season, so I can see Air Force beating a fellow military academy by a large chunk.

Pick: Air Force (-10.5) | Best Odds: (-106) FanDuel

UCF Knights (+20, +800 ML) vs. No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners (-19, -1000 ML)

Oklahoma Sooners’ quarterback Dillon Gabriel currently has the second-shortest odds to win the Heisman Trophy at +800 on FanDuel.

Considering that Gabriel transferred from UCF to Oklahoma, this is a bittersweet game for some.

As OU welcomes UCF to town this weekend, we look back on Dillon Gabriel’s best game as a Knight!

601 passing yards
49 rushing yards
Six total touchdowns #Sooners pic.twitter.com/3JXxzJ3lQu

— The Franchise Sports (@FranchiseOK) October 17, 2023

The Sooners continue to pile up the wins, undefeated at 6-0, but they are also 6-0 against the spread.

Oklahoma has been favored by 20 or more points twice this season, 20.5-point favorites over the Iowa State Cyclones (won by 30), and 28-point favorites over the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (won by 49), and has covered easily.

UCF has the NCAA’s 122nd-ranked rushing defense, and their starting quarterback, John Rhys Plumlee is questionable to play.

It looks like the Sooners will cover as heavy favorites once again.

I’ll back Oklahoma on the spread now while the number is below 20 points on some books.

Pick: Oklahoma (-19) | Best Odds: (-110) PointsBet

No. 17 Tennessee Volunteers (+9.5, +290 ML) vs. No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide (-8.5, -320 ML)

Tennessee and Alabama’s defenses have both played similarly in 2023.

• Tennessee Pass D – 185.4 Yards/Game (18th in NCAA)
• Alabama Pass D – 187.1 Yards/Game (19th in NCAA)
• Tennessee Rush D – 110.4 Yards/Game (22nd in NCAA)
• Alabama Rush D – 105.3 Yards/Game (21st in NCAA)
• Tennessee Scoring D – 17.8 Points/Game (15th in NCAA)
• Alabama Scoring D – 16 Points/Game (11th in NCAA)

The defensive matchups are wildly close.

The difference will be made up in the trenches.

Crimson Tide QB Jalen Milroe has taken a ton of sacks, in fact, Alabama has allowed their quarterback to be sacked an average of 4.4 times per game, that’s 129th in the NCAA; the Volunteers’ QB is sacked just 1.6 times per game.

#Arkansas Landon Jackson with his 2nd sack of the day on Jalen Milroe pic.twitter.com/waiczP9v8w

— Tanner Phifer (@TannerPhiferNFL) October 14, 2023

Those lost yards allowed on sacks will be critical for Alabama.

Although Tennessee’s defensive sack percentage (9.66%) is lower than the Crimson Tide’s (10.88%), Alabama’s indecisive QB and easily penetrable line will lead to good field position for the Volunteers.

The Tide are just 4-3 against the spread this season, and I like Tennessee to cover here at +9.5.

Pick: Tennessee (+9.5) | Best Odds: (-110) Caesars

South Carolina Gamecocks (+7, +230 ML) vs. No. 20 Missouri Tigers (-7, -275 ML)

The South Carolina Gamecocks lost to the Florida Gators last week, 41-39, and in the process, allowed Gators’ QB Graham Mertz to throw for 423 yards and three touchdowns.

This week, the Gamecocks get to face Brady Cook and Luther Burden of Missouri, arguably the NCAA’s best QB-WR combo.

MIZZOU! Brady Cook ➡️ Luther Burden III for the 47 yard TD!! pic.twitter.com/5u5plH8Bhy

— Video from: @TSV__1 (@TSV__1) September 16, 2023

South Carolina’s passing defense is now ranked a lowly 132nd of all 133 FBS teams, allowing 337.4 passing yards per game.

The Tigers’ Cook and Burden will put South Carolina’s passing defense in the basement after Week 8.

After last week’s strong 17-point victory over the then-No. 24 Kentucky Wildcats, Missouri’s rising offense should be able to tack on plenty of points in this one.

Spencer Rattler, QB of the Gamecocks, is a very solid signal caller as well, so this game is looking like a potential SEC shootout.

I’m taking the over at 59.5 on BetMGM, but I also like Missouri’s defense just enough to assist this Tigers’ squad in covering the spread.

I’m thinking of a 10 point win for Mizzou.

Pick: Missouri (-7) | Best Odds: (-110) FanDuel

Pick: Over 59.5 | Best Odds: (-115) BetMGM

Washington State Cougars (+20.5, +900 ML) vs. No. 9 Oregon Ducks (-18.5, -1200 ML)

The Oregon Ducks may have been tripped up at home by the Washington Huskies, but the Washington State Cougars have fallen off a cliff.

After their 4-0 start, and defeating two ranked opponents, the then-No. 19 Wisconsin Badgers and then-No. 14 Oregon State Beavers, Washington State has since lost two games in a row by a combined score of 69-23.

Ever since the opening touchdown drive, Washington State has not finished a possession in Arizona territory.

Wildcats defense is shutting down Wazzu. pic.twitter.com/o8tiVwCLP2

— Justin Spears (@JustinESports) October 15, 2023

Cougars QB Cameron Ward has been a large part of the fall for Wazzu.

Ward started his season with an average of 347.5 passing yards per game and a 13:0 touchdown to interception ratio in the first four contests, and followed that performance with an average of 194.5 passing yards per game and 1:3 touchdown to interception ratio over the last two games.

This will be a get-right game for the Oregon Ducks.

Washington State’s defense is one of the worst in the Pac-12, and with their quarterback no longer playing at an elite level, they will be dusted early in this one.

Oregon is going to take their frustrations out on the Cougars this Saturday.

Pick: Oregon (-18.5) | Best Odds: (-120) FanDuel

No. 13 Ole Miss Rebels (-6.5, -227 ML) vs. Auburn Tigers (+6.5, +215 ML)

After keeping the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs on their heels with a one-possession game, the Auburn Tigers crumbled against LSU the following week, losing 48-18.

Auburn’s defense has played well at times this season, but their offense leaves a lot to be desired.

It’s quite the opposite for the Ole Miss Rebels.

Ole Miss will give up a chunk of points, but their offense will usually make up the difference; their offense’s 10-point dud against Alabama as the only exception.

The Rebels’ offense is built very much like the LSU Tigers’ offense. A mobile QB in Jaxson Dart and a solid bruiser at running back in Quinshon Judkins.

Quinshon Judkins doing the Moonwalk while RGIII screams “Hee Hee!!” Is amazing: 😂 pic.twitter.com/Q1ZoFKsgyZ

— Jim Weber (@JimMWeber) October 1, 2023

LSU put up 48 on Auburn, and I expect Ole Miss to put up a decent total as well.

Auburn is just 2-4 against the spread this season, and their substandard offense will keep them from covering once again.

Pick: Ole Miss (-6.5) | Best Odds: (-109) BetRivers

No. 16 Duke Blue Devils (+13.5, +425 ML) vs. No. 4 Florida State Seminoles (-13.5, -500 ML)

The season appeared to be lost for Duke after quarterback Riley Leonard went down with an injury against Notre Dame, but the Blue Devils’ defense was the story in last week’s win over the NC State Wolfpack.

Duke’s defense allowed a season-low three points against NC State, and are now allowing less than 10 points per game (9.8).

Duke is 4th in the nation in scoring defense. Mike Elko talks about that side of the ball. pic.twitter.com/RybFZlXvs2

— Blue Devil Nation (@BlueDevilNation) October 16, 2023

The Blue Devils will have their work cut out for them on Saturday, facing a Florida State Seminoles’ offense that is averaging over 40 points per game (42.2).

Florida State has now scored 30 points or more in 12 straight games, the second-longest active streak in the NCAA.

With how well quarterback Jordan Travis has played (1,482 yards, 13 TD Passes, 1 INT), big numbers on the scoreboard are the new normal down in Tallahassee.

Here’s a look at the defensive ranking for Florida State’s opponents so far this season:

• LSU – 30.3 Points Allowed/Game (101st in NCAA)
• Southern Miss – 38.1 Points Allowed/Game (131st in NCAA)
• Boston College – 31.7 Points Allowed/Game (111th in NCAA)
• Clemson – 19.3 Points Allowed/Game (27th in NCAA)
• Virginia Tech – 24.7 Points Allowed/Game (62nd in NCAA)
• Syracuse – 22.1 Points Allowed/Game (46th in the NCAA)

Florida State has rarely played a strong defense, and started their season with absurdly easy defensive opponents.

This week:

• Duke – 9.8 Points Allowed/Game (4th in NCAA)

Seeing how well Duke’s defense played against Notre Dame, allowing just 21 points, I believe that the Blue Devils will snap the Seminoles’ 30-point streak and hang within the spread of +13.5 points.

Duke is a perennial favorite in basketball, but in football they are a Cinderella story, and I’m all for it.

Pick: Duke (+13.5) | Best Odds: (-109) BetRivers

No. 14 Utah Utes (+7, +220 ML) vs. No. 18 USC Trojans (-6.5, -250 ML)

The USC Trojans were embarrassed in South Bend, Indiana last Saturday, losing to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish by 28 points.

Although the Trojans will be in the friendlier confines of the LA Memorial Coliseum this week, their matchup against the No. 14 Utah Utes is anything but a quick bounce back opportunity.

Utah has only allowed 20 points on the scoreboard just one time this season, surrendering 21 points to the then-No. 19 Oregon State Beavers.

Caleb Williams is an elite quarterback for USC, despite his first career three interception game last week, but he may struggle to find scoring options once again this week.

Utah has one of the top scoring defenses in the nation, allowing 12.2 points per game, and their defense has relinquished a measly average of just 68 rushing yards per game.

The blueprint says that Williams will have to beat the Utes with his arm to construct a victory, but sometimes the results don’t match the blueprint.

Just ask Florida.

Florida’s QB Graham Mertz put up 333 passing yards against this Utah defense and they still lost, 24-11.

Also, keep an eye on Sione Vaki of Utah.

The two-way superstar is giving Colorado’s Travis Hunter a run for his money in the title of “Best Two-Way College Player”.

One of the best storylines from the college football weekend was a special two way performance by Utah’s Sione Vaki

4 Tackles
2 Touchdowns
158 Yards Rushing (10.5 YPC)
pic.twitter.com/A8RgIZw5p6

— Joe O’Leary (@TheHQNerd) October 15, 2023

Vaki, a strong safety and running back, has recorded 23 tackles, 6.5 for a loss, one sack, and one interception on the season. Vaki also picked up 158 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries last week against the Cal Golden Bears.

Pick: Utah Moneyline | Best Odds: (+220) bet365

Arizona State Sun Devils (+27.5, +1800 ML) vs. No. 5 Washington Huskies (-26.5, -3600)

This is a lopsided contest, and I expect the final score to reflect that.

So do the oddsmakers.

Washington is 1-1-1 against the spread when favored by 20 or more points this season.

The Huskies were 33-point favorites when they beat the Tulsa Golden Hurricane by exactly 33 points on September 16th, resulting in a push.

Washington then covered as 20-point favorites over Cal on September 23rd, and won by 27 points, and then failed to cover as 20-point favorites against the Arizona Wildcats, winning by just seven.

Arizona has played better than expectations.

Meanwhile, the Arizona State Sun Devils have met their expectations as an inferior Pac-12 team.

The Sun Devils have one win this season, and that was against FCS-level Southern Utah, and even in that contest, Arizona State allowed 21 points.

Michael Penix, Rome Odunze, and this high-powered Washington offense, should put up a boatload of points.

Penix back shoulder to Rome Odunze 🎯

This duo is special 🤩pic.twitter.com/7e5mhCfxhm

— RanDynasty (@ran_dynasty) October 14, 2023

The only problem I’m seeing, when it comes to whether or not the Huskies will cover the spread, is if they go up big early and bench their starters.

I’m hoping it doesn’t come to that.

Let Penix pad his Heisman stats and get Washington to cover this large spread.

Pick: Washington (-26.5) | Best Odds: (-110) DraftKings