NCAA Football Week 7 Odds

Author

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Oct 11, 2023

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Syracuse Orange (+17.5, +700 ML) vs. No. 4 Florida State Seminoles (-17.5, -900 ML)

After their 4-0 start, the Syracuse Orange have dropped two games in a row, both losses coming in ACC Conference matchups.

The Orange lost to Clemson and North Carolina by a combined score of 71-21, being outscored by 50 points in the last two weeks.

If Syracuse is going to put up a fight against Florida State, they will need their offense to step up.

The Seminoles are currently 5-0, but they have had some close calls earlier this year.

Florida State beat Boston College by just two points on September 16th, and took down Clemson in overtime, 31-24, on September 23rd.

In the Seminoles’ game against Boston College, the ‘Noles allowed dual-threat QB Thomas Castellanos to throw for 305 yards and run for 95 more.

This week against Syracuse, Florida State faces a similar QB in Garrett Shrader, and I believe Shrader can do enough damage offensively to keep the Orange in the ball game.

Pick: Syracuse (+17.5) | Best Odds: (-110) DraftKings

Arkansas Razorbacks (+20.5, +800 ML) vs. No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide (-19, -1100 ML)

The Arkansas Razorbacks couldn’t overcome the then-No. 16 Ole Miss Rebels last week.

Arkansas lost the turnover margin to Ole Miss, 2-0. Razorbacks’ QB K.J. Jefferson sealed the loss with an interception on Arkansas’ final drive.

Ball security will be paramount for the Razorbacks this week against Alabama.

Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns against Texas A&M last week, showing that he can be Alabama’s true No. 1 QB.

Milroe may find it harder to move the ball downfield this week facing an Arkansas’ passing defense that is allowing just 212.2 passing yards per game.

The Crimson Tide are heavily favored, by 20 points or so, depending on the sportsbook.

Alabama has only been favored by more than 20 points just once this season (-34.5 over USF Bulls), and they failed to cover, winning by a score of 17-3.

If Jefferson can keep the ball in the hands of Arkansas’ offense, I like the Razorbacks’ chances to cover here.

Pick: Arkansas (+20.5) | Best Odds: (-115) FanDuel

Florida Gators (+2.5, +114 ML) vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (-2, -125 ML)

The Florida Gators’ defense is currently ranked 21st among all 133 FBS teams in total defense, allowing just 321 total yards of offense per game.

On the other sideline, the South Carolina Gamecocks defense is ranked 125 out of 133 FBS in total defense, allowing 472 total yards of offense per game.

Florida’s defense held the Tennessee Volunteers to just 16 points earlier this season, and that same Volunteers team just beat South Carolina last week, 41-20.

The Gators’ defense can win this game all by themselves, they just need to start creating turnovers.

Florida is averaging 0.4 takeaways per game, a number that seems unsustainably low for an effective defense such as this.

Gamecocks’ quarterback Spencer Rattler threw 12 interceptions last year, and now has three in his last three games. This week could be the week for turnovers for the Gators’ defense.

Florida’s quarterback Graham Mertz has played very efficiently, completing 79.9 percent of his passes and limiting turnovers.

If he can keep the ball contained, and the Gators’ defense can continue to play well, and possibly get a turnover or two, Florida can pick up the upset in Columbia.

Pick: Florida Moneyline | Best Odds: (+114) FanDuel

Texas A&M Aggies (+3.5, +160 ML) vs. No. 19 Tennessee Volunteers (-3.5, -170 ML)

When looking at both of these teams schedules thus far, it would appear that the Aggies have faced stiffer competition than the Volunteers.

Texas A&M played a tough non-conference game against the Miami Hurricanes in early September, which the Aggies lost, 48-33.

In the last three weeks, Texas A&M picked up a home win over Auburn, then beat Arkansas on the road, then endured a close home loss to Alabama.

Tennessee is 4-1 this season, but they dropped their first SEC Conference game to Florida on September 16th, and all four of their wins came against the 1-5 Virginia Cavaliers, the FCS-level Austin Peay Governors, the UTSA Road Runners, and South Carolina.

That’s not the toughest slate.

I like the more battle-tested Aggies to pick up the road win here.

Pick: Texas A&M Moneyline | Best Odds: (+160) bet365

No. 8 Oregon Ducks (+3, +125 ML) vs. No. 7 Washington Huskies (-2.5, -141 ML)

Nix vs. Penix

This matchup could shake up the Heisman odds.

FanDuel sportsbook currently has Oregon Ducks QB Bo Nix at +600, the third shortest odds, and Washington Huskies QB Michael Penix with the shortest odds at +220.

These offenses are electric dynamite!

Washington is first in the NCAA in total offense, tallying an average of 569.4 total yards per game, and Oregon’s offense comes in as the 4th best offense, recording an average of 515 total yards per game.

This game may end up being the game of the year.

The offenses are going to score some points, but how will the defenses do?

Here’s a quick look at rankings on defense so far for the Ducks and Huskies:

  • Oregon Passing Defense: 179 YPG (14th in NCAA)
  • Washington Pass Defense: 243.4 YPG (76th in NCAA)
  • Oregon Rushing Defense: 90.5 YPG (12th in NCAA)
  • Washington Rush Defense: 121.6 YPG (37th in NCAA)
  • Oregon Scoring Defense: 13 PPG (T-6th in NCAA)
  • Washington Scoring Defense: 18.4 PPG (T-20th in NCAA)

Oregon appears to be better in every defensive category, and with comparable offenses, I like the Ducks to pick up a big Pac-12 road win here.

Pick: Oregon Moneyline | Best Odds: (+125) BetMGM

Auburn Tigers (+11.5, +340 ML) vs. No. 22 LSU Tigers (-11, -395 ML)

LSU’s defense has been so bad, it has made their games entertaining to watch.

The total in each of LSU’s games this season has hit 55 or higher, and in each of the last three games the total has reached 64 or higher, extending as high as 114 total points in a 55-49 loss to Ole Miss on September 30th.

If you’re interested in taking the over in this game, the total is currently set at 60.5 on FanDuel, with odds of -115.

Auburn’s defense has been a different story, not allowing any more than 27 points in a game this season.

Auburn has lost each of their last two games, to Texas A&M and Georgia, and in each loss, Auburn allowed just 27 points exactly.

LSU’s woeful defense will surrender some points to Auburn’s offense, possibly enough points to allow Auburn to cover the 11.5-point spread.

Pick: Auburn (+11.5) | Best Odds: (-110) DraftKings

Missouri Tigers (+2.5, +120 ML) vs. No. 23 Kentucky Wildcats (-2.5, -135 ML)

Missouri lost to LSU last week, 49-39, but the game was much closer until Tigers’ quarterback Brady Cook tossed a pick-six and Mizzou’s kicker missed a field goal in their final two drives.

That was the ten points the Tigers needed.

Kentucky was never close in their matchup last week with the Georgia Bulldogs, losing 51-13.

The Wildcats subpar passing defense was torched by Georgia QB Carson Beck for 389 yards and four touchdowns.

Even Georgia’s backup QB, Brock Vandagriff, got in on the action, throwing for 46 yards and a touchdown on just seven pass attempts.

The Wildcats feeble passing defense will get picked apart by Missouri’s passing combo of Brady Cook and Luther Burden III.

I believe that Kentcuky is still being seen in a favorable light, receiving gains from last year’s team led by QB Will Levis, and the current edition of this squad is just not nearly as good.

Mizzou is on the rise.

Pick: Missouri Moneyline | Best Odds: (+120) PointsBet

No. 25 Miami Hurricanes (+3.5, +160 ML) vs. No. 12 North Carolina Tar Heels (-3.5, -172)

Two programs that were complete opposites in Week 6: Miami and UNC.

Miami was a 20-point favorite over the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, and lost in a horrible fashion, by choosing to hand the ball off to the running back instead of kneeling, only to have the running back fumble and give Georgia Tech the ball.

Georgia Tech went 74 yards in 24 seconds to steal the game from the Hurricanes.

On the other side, UNC covered their 9.5-point spread over the Syracuse Orange, winning 40-7.

It was a banner day for Tar Heels’ quarterback Drake May, as he threw for 442 yards and three touchdowns.

This should have been a battle between two 5-0 ACC teams, but nope.

This looks like a great rebound spot for Miami.

Hurricanes’ QB Tyler Van Dyke has played very well this season, and comes into this contest with a higher passer rating than Drake Maye; 178.8 for Van Dyke, 158.8 for Maye.

Miami has a strong rushing defense, allowing just 58.2 rushing yards per game, and could make UNC’s offense one dimensional in Week 7.

Pick: Miami (+3.5) | Best Odds: (-105) FanDuel

No. 10 USC Trojans (+3, +125 ML) vs. No. 21 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-2.5, -139)

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have lost two of their last three games, sandwiching a close victory over Duke with losses to Ohio State and Louisville.

The Fighting Irish are certainly fighting alright, and things won’t be easier when Caleb Williams comes to South Bend in Week 7.

Williams must do everything he can to win as USC’s defense has rarely held up their end.

The Trojans’ defense has allowed exactly 41 points in each of their last two games, a win over Colorado, and a scarily close three-overtime win over Arizona.

Notre Dame’s offense started strong, scoring 41 or more points in each of their first four games, but that can happen when you play Navy, FCS-level Tennessee State, NC State, and Central Michigan.

In their last three contests, the Irish have not scored any more than 21 points, failing to capitalize on drives against tougher opponents.

Although USC’s defense is weaker than a Top-10 team’s defense should be, Notre Dame’s offense won’t be able to match the effort of Caleb Williams.

Pick: USC Moneyline | Best Odds: (+125) FanDuel

No. 18 UCLA Bruins (+3.5, +165) vs. No. 15 Oregon State Beavers (-3.5, -172)

The UCLA Bruins picked up a statement win over the then-No. 13 Washington State Cougars last week.

Washington State quarterback Cameron Ward had been climbing up the Heisman odds, but the Bruins put a dent in that dream, holding the fiery quarterback to just 18 completions on 38 pass attempts for only 192 yards and two interceptions.

The Bruins’ defense is for real as they have not allowed any more than 17 points in any game this season.

Oregon State’s defense on the other hand, looked weak last Saturday, allowing an iffy Cal Golden Bears squad to record 40 points.

The Beavers allowed 241 rushing yards to Cal, and this week, will face UCLA running back Carson Steele, a Ball State transfer that has quickly become one of the finest backs in the Pac-12.

Oregon State allowed Cameron Ward of Washington State to throw for 404 yards and four touchdowns, and when comparing that to how much the Bruins shut Ward down, maybe that can give some insight on how these defenses stack up.

UCLA has the better defense that will frustrate Beavers’ QB D.J. Uiagalelei, and there has been a lapse in this Oregon State defense on several occasions.

The Bruins can pull off the upset in Corvallis.

Pick: UCLA Moneyline | Best Odds: (+165) bet365

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A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and enter...

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