NCAA Football Takeaways Week 7

Now that the College Football season is firmly past the midpoint, the race for the Heisman Trophy has gone from a wideview panorama with plenty of valuable options to choose from, to just a glimpse through a keyhole at Washington Huskies’ quarterback Michael Penix Jr.

Here’s how the Top-5 Heisman odds sat on Caesars Sportsbook prior to kickoff in Week 7:

• Michael Penix Jr. – QB, Washington (+220)
• Caleb Williams – QB, USC (+260)
• Bo Nix – QB, Oregon (+420)
• Dillon Gabriel – QB, Oklahoma (+650)
• Drake Maye – QB, North Carolina (+1000)

Here’s how the Top-5 Heisman odds sit after Week 7:

• Michael Penix Jr. – QB, Washington (-140)
• Dillon Gabriel – QB, Oklahoma (+800)
• Jayden Daniels – QB, LSU (+850)
• J.J. McCarthy – QB, Michigan (+1000)
• Drake Maye – QB, North Carolina (+1100)

Penix put on a Heisman-worthy performance in Saturday’s win over Oregon, specifically in crunch time in the fourth quarter.

After the Huskies’ defense completed a strong defensive run, forcing the Ducks to turnover the ball on downs in Washington territory, Penix and the Huskies would get the ball back with just 2:16 left on the clock, down 33-29.

Penix completed a 53-yard drive on just two passes, a 35-yard pass to Ja’Lynn Polk and an 18-yard touchdown pass to Rome Odunze, to take back the lead, 36-33.

MICHAEL PENIX JR. TOUCHDOWN TO ROME ODUNZE 🤯

WASHINGTON RECLAIMS THE LEAD 🙌pic.twitter.com/qCLjja9CTx

— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) October 14, 2023

Oregon ultimately missed what would have been a game-tying field goal, but the previous drive by Penix is one of those moments that people will remember, including Heisman voters.

Top challengers for the Heisman Trophy, both Bo Nix and Caleb Williams, suffered tough losses and sharp drops in the Heisman odds.

At Caesars Sportsbook, Williams dropped from +260 to +2200 after his three interception outing against Notre Dame.

Nix, losing the battle vs. Penix, dropped from +420 to +3000.

Nix is now tied with a cluster of other quarterbacks at 30-1 odds, including Quinn Ewers of Texas, Drew Allar of Penn State, Kyle McCord of Ohio State, and D.J. Uiagalelei of Oregon State.

That’s quite a drop for Nix.

According to oddsmakers, Penix may have locked up the Heisman before November.

Top-25 Shake Up

The four teams that sit atop the AP Poll, No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 Ohio State, and No. 4 Florida State all remain in their top four spots from the week before.

However, a chunk of alterations occurred among the following 21 spots.

The USC Trojans fell from No. 9 to No. 18 after their ugly loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Caleb Williams threw for three interceptions in the loss, his first career three interception game, as the Trojans fell by 28 points.

Caleb Williams throws his third interception… of the first half

(via @NDFootball) pic.twitter.com/sVLUslKEBp

— SI College Football (@si_ncaafb) October 15, 2023

It may be difficult for USC to climb back up the rankings if they fail to pick up a win over the No. 14 Utah Utes in Week 8.

The Trojans are favored by -6.5 points on the spread against Utah, with best odds for USC to cover at BetRivers (-109).

As for Notre Dame, picking up a nearly 30-point win over USC was a nice bounce back after their head-scratching loss to the Louisville Cardinals the week prior.

The win has propelled Notre Dame to No. 15, and the Irish have a well-earned bye week before defending their ranking against the Pittsburgh Panthers.

That right, the Pittsburgh team that just picked up a head-scratching win over Louisville in Week 7.

The Cardinals fell from No. 15 to No. 21 after their loss to Pitt, and now they will fight to stay inside the Top-25 when they face off against the No. 16 Duke Blue Devils.

The Blue Devils played their first game without starting quarterback Riley Leonard, placing backup Henry Belin IV under center.

Belin IV was awful as he completed just four of 12 passes for 107 yards, but still threw for two touchdown passes in the win.

Duke puts their ranking to the test this week, as they face the No. 4 Florida State Seminoles.

The Seminoles are favored by -13.5 points on the spread, with best odds for Florida State to cover at BetMGM (-115).

Some other interesting squads in the lower end of the AP Poll include No. 22 Air Force and No. 23 Tulane.

The Air Force Falcons are currently 6-0, defeating Wyoming last week, 34-27, to jump into the Top-25.

Looking ahead at Air Force’s schedule, they have a series of winnable contests until they square up with the Boise State Broncos in their final regular season matchup.

The Falcons look like a strong bet to win the Mountain West Conference, and bettors that believe Air Force can win the conference can find the best odds at +400 on bet365 and BetRivers.

Another ‘Group of Five’ school to look at is the Tulane Green Wave.

Tulane has a legitimate shot at a one-loss season, barring any major injuries or shake ups to their current unit.

The Green Wave are 5-1 for the second consecutive season, their first time duplicating that feat since the Richard Nixon administration in 1973 and 1974.

Tulane’s only loss came against the then-No. 20 Ole Miss Rebels, Ole Miss now at No. 13.

The Green Wave are the current favorites to win the American Athletic Conference, with best odds found at +215 on BetRivers.

Here’s a look at the AP Poll Top-25 and each teams’ odds to make the College Football Playoff at FanDuel.

AP Poll Top-25	Odds to Make CFP
No. 1 Georgia	-190
No. 2 Michigan	-145
No. 3 Ohio State	+200
No. 4 Florida State	-130
No. 5 Washington	+115
No. 6 Oklahoma	+140
No. 7 Washington	+270
No. 8 Texas	+230
No. 9 Oregon	+600
No. 10 North Carolina	+600
No. 11 Alabama	+430
No. 12 Oregon State	+1600
No. 13 Ole Miss	+3900
No. 14 Utah	+1500
No. 15 Notre Dame	+2500
No. 16 Duke	+4800
No. 17 Tennessee	+2800
No. 18 USC	+1100
No. 19 LSU	+2100
No. 20 Missouri	+3900
No. 21 Louisville	+4800
No. 22 Air Force	+2600
No. 23 Tulane	N/A
No. 24 Iowa	+3200
No. 25 UCLA	+9000

There are some intriguing values on this list, and with the Ohio State-Penn State game scheduled for this Saturday, now may be a bettor’s last chance to take either team to make the College Football Playoff with odds over +200.