Brain vs. Gut | NCAAF Week 11

In every decision I make, my brain and gut communicate, trying to find the best outcome.

I saw a stray dog in my neighborhood recently, and it was cute, so naturally, I wanted to pet that dog.

My brain and gut tried to find the best path forward.

Gut: Look at that cute dog! Let’s go pet that dog!

Brain: There are roughly 4.5 million biting incidents from dogs in the U.S. each year.

Gut: My eyeball test says the dog doesn’t look vicious. So, I’m petting it.

Brain: According to the American Veterinary Medical Association, less than 1% of stray dogs were reported to have rabies. While petting stray dogs comes with some risk of attack, contracting rabies is unlikely.

Gut: Rabies is unlikely? Me, petting that stray dog is likely.

I went with my gut, and I pet that dog.

My brain and gut frequently have a similar back-and-forth when I’m trying to place my bets, too.

Rarely are they on the same page, but one is usually the ultimate decider on my wagers.

It’s Brain vs. Gut!

No. 3 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions

Brain: The Michigan Wolverines are 9-0, and all nine of their wins have been by 24 or more points.

Gut: Michigan’s schedule has been softer than a bed at the Westin, so no, I’m not impressed.

Brain: Wolverines’ quarterback J.J. McCarthy has a passer rating of 188.7, the second highest in all qualifying NCAA quarterbacks.

Gut: McCarthy should be No. 1 in passer rating if he’s throwing against teams like East Carolina and Bowling Green. Drew Allar is just as good a QB as McCarthy. Look at this dart from Allar, just an example of how good of a passer he really is.

Drew Allar the sharpshooter 🎯
pic.twitter.com/0pU0ZmpAer

— The Daily Collegian (@DailyCollegian) November 4, 2023

Brain: Cool! Allar has a passer rating of 140.3, 55th amongst quarterbacks in the NCAA.

Gut: Okay, but Allar is battle-tested. He’s played against Ohio State, the No. 1 team in the College Football Playoff Rankings.

Brain: Against Ohio State’s defense, Allar completed only 18 of 42 pass attempts for 191 yards and a touchdown.

Gut: That’s alright. The completion percentage is trash but the zero interceptions is nice.

Brain: Allar has a 20:1 touchdown to interception ratio this season, and a 0.3% interception percentage, the best INT% in College Football.

Gut: See, I told you Allar was good. What’s McCarthy’s INT%?

Brain: McCarthy’s INT% is 1.5%.

Gut: Garbage!

Brain: It’s a stretch to call McCarthy garbage. A team still needs more than a quarterback to win the game. Michigan’s defense is first in passing defense (141.3 passing yards/game), 10th in rushing defense (90.1 rushing yards/game), and first in scoring defense (6.7 points allowed/game).

Gut: The Nittany Lions got a defense, too! They’ve got two shutouts this year!

Brain: Against UMass and Iowa. UMass is the NCAA’s 89th-ranked scoring offense (22.7 ppg) and Iowa is ranked 115th (18.4 ppg).

Gut: Penn State’s defense is at least comparable to Michigan’s and they’ve played better competition.

Brain: Penn State is 12th in passing defense (175.7 passing yards/game), first in rushing defense (58.8 rushing yards/game), and third in scoring defense (11.9 points allowed/game).

Gut: I like Allar better than McCarthy, the Nittany Lions have just as good a defense, and Penn State is at home in Happy Valley. With value as underdogs!

I’m going with my greedy gut in this huge Big Ten matchup.

Gut Pick: Penn State Moneyline

Best Odds: (+178) Caesars

No. 13 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 14 Missouri Tigers

Gut: I’m thinking of another home underdog upset win. Missouri over Tennessee.

Brain: Both teams are 7-2 and this game has a one point spread. Although this is expected to be a close contest, Tennessee has won their last two games by a combined score of 92-30.

Gut: Yeah, but a majority of that is chalked up to the Volunteers’ 59-3 win over UConn last week. At least Missouri covered their 14-point spread against the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs in Week 10.

Brain: Tennessee holds a clear advantage on defense, ranking higher than Missouri in almost every defensive category. The Volunteers are also 21st in the NCAA in points allowed per game (18.4).

Gut: Well, bad things are going to happen to that defense this week when they take on Brady Cook and “Flex Luther”. That’s Mizzou wide receiver Luther Burden. Check out what the “Mizzou Two” did against Georgia.

Brady Cook
Luther Burden

💰💰💰 pic.twitter.com/uXuLXWD4jD

— Mark Kim (@MarkJKim_) November 4, 2023

Brain: Tennessee’s defense is only allowing 222.2 passing yards per game, so Cook may struggle to find open receivers. As for “Flex Luther”, the Volunteers have allowed only seven receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers in nine games, and just one receiver to total 100 receiving yards in a game this season (Dane Key, Kentucky).

Gut: Burden is wildly superior to Dane Key, and Burden already has five 100-yard receiving games this year. I think he can get another one here.

Brain: Tennessee’s offense should be a concern for the Tigers, specifically the Volunteers’ rushing attack, which is averaging 5.6 yards per carry (seventh-best in the NCAA).

Gut: Okay, but Missouri’s rushing defense ain’t that bad. They did a decent job against Georgia’s running backs last week. Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton only had 121 rushing yards combined. 

Brain: The 121 rushing yards allowed to the two Bulldog running backs is right around the season average for Missouri’s rushing defense (114 rushing yards allowed/game). Tennessee running back Jaylen Wright has run for 100+ yards in four of his last five games.

Gut: Wright is going to be running into a brick wall on Saturday.

Brain: There was no “brick wall” on the Tiger’s defense when they allowed LSU to total 274 rushing yards. Missouri has been effective at times, holding opposing rushers to 4.0 yards per carry, tied for 50th-best mark in the NCAA. There’s no real consistency in stopping the run for the Tigers’ defense.

Gut: When Tennessee lost to Alabama, the Vols ran terribly.

Brain: Tennessee tallied just 133 rushing yards on 38 carries in that contest, averaging 3.5 yards per carry. Alabama’s defense is also only allowing very strong 3.5 yards per carry all season (23rd in NCAA).

Gut: So Alabama’s defense allows 3.5 yards per carry and that’s “very strong”, but Mizzou allows 4.0 yards per carry and that’s average? We’re splitting hairs here. In a one-point spread, I like the underdogs at home.

I’m going with my gut here again.

Gut Pick: Missouri Moneyline

Best Odds: (+100) BetMGM

No. 18 Utah Utes vs. No. 5 Washington Huskies

Gut: I’m taking another underdog! Utah for the W!

Brain: Careful.

Gut: I was looking through the schedules for both of these teams and I saw that Utah beat the Arizona State Sun Devils 55-3, but when Washington played Arizona State, the Huskies won, but it was only 15-7. I do not like that one bit.

Brain: So, based on how both teams played one opponent, you’re taking Utah to beat Washington?

Gut:  . . . Yes.

Brain: The Huskies are undefeated, and they are averaging 383.1 passing yards and 41.7 points scored per game.

Gut: Yeah, that’s an impressive offense, but for some reason, not against Arizona State. Also, I do not like this Washington defense. They just give up way too many points.

Brain: Since the beginning of Pac-12 conference play, the Huskies’ defense has allowed an average of 28.5 points. That’s in six games of conference play.

Gut: And the Huskies allowed 33 points to Stanford, and that’s just weird. Almost a Colorado-like defensive showing. Not good at all.

Brain: In the last six games of conference play for Utah, the Utes defense has allowed an average of 18.6 points per game.

Gut: See, that’s better. That 10-point difference in points allowed is much more like a team I’m willing to back. I’m going to take the Utes moneyline at +295 on DraftKings.

Brain: May I make a suggestion?

Gut: Shoot.

Brain: The spread is at 9.5-points, favoring the Washington Huskies, and it’s the largest underdog spread against Utah all season. The last time the Utes were labeled as an underdog with a spread by more than a touchdown, Utah covered, defeating the USC Trojans 34-32 as +7.5-point underdogs.

Gut: I can see some similarities between Utah’s game against USC and this week’s game against Washington. I also see a similar result, with Utah winning!

I’m going to avoid my greedy gut and go with my brain’s suggestion here.

Brain Pick: Utah (+9.5)
Best Odds: (-108) DraftKings